Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Response to Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization: A Real-World Study Based on Non-Contrast Computed Tomography Radiomics and General Image Features

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Predicting Transarterial Chemoembolization Outcomes: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Major society guidelines recommend transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) as the standard of care for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. However, predicting treatment response remains challenging.

AIMS

As artificial intelligence (AI) may predict therapeutic responses, this systematic review aims to assess the performance and effectiveness of radiomics and AI-based models in predicting TACE outcomes in patients with HCC.

METHODS

A systemic search was conducted on Medline and Embase databases from inception to 7th April 2024. Included studies generated a predictive model for TACE response and evaluated its performance by area under the curve (AUC), specificity, or sensitivity analysis. Systematic reviews, meta-analyses, case series and reports, pediatric, and animal studies were excluded. Secondary search of references of included articles ensured comprehensiveness.

RESULTS

64 articles, with 13,412 TACE-treated patients, were included. AI in pre-treatment CT scans provided value in predicting the efficacy of TACE in HCC treatment. A positive association was observed for AI in pre-treatment MRI scans. Models incorporating radiomics had numerically better performance than those incorporating manual measured radiological variables. 39 studies demonstrated that combined predictive models had numerically better performance than models based solely on imaging or non-imaging features.

CONCLUSION

A combined predictive model incorporating clinical features, laboratory investigations, and radiological characteristics may effectively predict response to TACE treatment for HCC.

TRACE Model: Predicting Treatment Response to Transarterial Chemoembolization in Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose

To develop and validate a predictive model for predicting six-month outcome by integrating pretreatment MRI features and one-month treatment response after TACE.

Methods

A total of 108 patients with 160 hCCs from a single-arm, multicenter clinical trial (NCT03113955) were analyzed and served as the training cohort. An external multicenter dataset (ChiCTR2100046020) consisting of 63 patients with 99 hCCs served as the test dataset. Radiomics model was constructed based on the selected features from pretreatment MR images. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis of clinical and radiological factors were used to identify the independent predictors for the 6-month treatment response. A combined model was further constructed by incorporating one-month treatment response, selected clinical and radiological factors and radiomics signature.

Results

Among all the clinical and radiological features, only corona enhancement and one-month treatment response were selected. The combined model, named TRACE model (Treatment response at 1 month, RAdiomics and Corona Enhancement), with AUCs of 0.91 (training cohort) and 0.84 (test cohort). The TRACE model demonstrated a significantly higher AUC than the radiomics model (P = 0.001). High-risk and low-risk groups stratified by using the TRACE model also exhibited significant differences in overall survival (OS) (P < 0.001). In contrast, none of the published scoring systems, including ART, SNACOR or ABCR score, demonstrated significant differences between the risk groups in OS prediction.

Conclusion

The TRACE model exhibited favorable predictive capability for six-month TACE response, and holds potential as a marker for long-term survival outcomes.

Predicting Pathological Response of Neoadjuvant Conversion Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Using CT-Based Radiomics Model

Purpose

Predicting the pathological response after neoadjuvant conversion therapy for initially unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is essential for surgical decision-making and survival outcomes but remains a challenge. We aimed to develop a radiomics model to predict pathological responses.

Methods

We included 203 patients with HCC who underwent hepatectomy after neoadjuvant conversion therapy between 2015 and 2023 and separated them into a training set (100 patients from Center A) and a validation set (103 patients from Center B). Pathological complete response (pCR)-related radiomic features were extracted from the largest tumor layer in the arterial and portal vein phases of the CT. A synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) was used to balance the minority groups in the training set. The SMOTE radiomics model was constructed using a logistic regression model in the SMOTE training set and its performance was verified in the validation set.

Results

The AUC of the preoperative modified response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (mRECIST) assessment for pCR was 0.656 and 0.589 in the training and validation sets, respectively. The SMOTE radiomics model was established based on ten radiomic features and showed good pCR-predictive performance in the SMOTE training set (AUC, 0.889; accuracy, 87.7%) and the validation set (AUC: 0.843, accuracy: 86.4%). The RFS of the radiomics-predicted-pCR group was significantly better than that of the predicted-non-pCR group in the training cohort (P = 0.001, 2-year RFS: 69.5% and 30.1% respectively) and the validation cohort (P = 0.012, 2-year RFS: 65.9% and 38.0% respectively).

Conclusion

The SMOTE radiomics model has great potential for predicting pathological response and evaluating RFS in patients with unresectable HCC after neoadjuvant conversion therapy.

Radiomics as a tool for prognostic prediction in transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is one of the predominant locoregional therapeutic modalities for addressing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, achieving precise prognostic predictions and effective patient selection remains a challenging pursuit. The primary objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to evaluate the efficacy of radiomics in forecasting the prognosis associated with TACE treatment.

METHODS

A comprehensive exploration of pertinent original studies was undertaken, encompassing databases of PubMed, Web of Science and Embase. The studies' quality was meticulously evaluated employing the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies 2 (QUADAS-2), the radiomics quality score (RQS) and the METhodological RadiomICs Score (METRICS). Pooled statistics, along with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), were computed for sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), and negative likelihood ratio (NLR). Additionally, a summary receiver operating characteristic curve (sROC) was generated. To discern potential sources of heterogeneity, meta-regression and subgroup analyses were performed.

RESULTS

The systematic review incorporated 29 studies, comprising a total of 5483 patients, with 14 studies involving 2691 patients qualifying for inclusion in the meta-analysis. The assessed studies exhibited commendable quality with regard to bias risk, with mean RQS of 12.90 ± 5.13 (35.82% ± 14.25%) and mean METRICS of 62.98% ± 14.58%. The pooled sensitivity was 0.83 (95% CI: 0.78-0.87), specificity was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.79-0.92), PLR was 6.13 (95% CI: 3.79-9.90), and NLR was 0.20 (95% CI: 0.15-0.27). The area under the sROC was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.87-0.93). Significant heterogeneity within all the included studies was observed, while meta-regression and subgroup analyses revealed homogeneous and promising findings in subgroups where principal methodological variables such as modeling algorithms, imaging modalities, and imaging phases were specified.

CONCLUSION

Radiomics models have exhibited robust predictive capabilities concerning prognosis subsequent to TACE, thereby presenting promising prospects for clinical translation.

A novel radiomics approach for predicting TACE outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma patients using deep learning for multi-organ segmentation

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) represent the standard of therapy for non-operative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), while prediction of long term treatment outcomes is a complex and multifactorial task. In this study, we present a novel machine learning approach utilizing radiomics features from multiple organ volumes of interest (VOIs) to predict TACE outcomes for 252 HCC patients. Unlike conventional radiomics models requiring laborious manual segmentation limited to tumoral regions, our approach captures information comprehensively across various VOIs using a fully automated, pretrained deep learning model applied to pre-TACE CT images. Evaluation of radiomics random survival forest models against clinical ones using Cox proportional hazard demonstrated comparable performance in predicting overall survival. However, radiomics outperformed clinical models in predicting progression-free survival. Explainable analysis highlighted the significance of non-tumoral VOI features, with their cumulative importance superior to features from the largest liver tumor. The proposed approach overcomes the limitations of manual VOI segmentation, requires no radiologist input and highlight the clinical relevance of features beyond tumor regions. Our findings suggest the potential of this radiomics models in predicting TACE outcomes, with possible implications for other clinical scenarios.

Ethiodized oil as an imaging biomarker after conventional transarterial chemoembolization

Conventional transarterial chemoembolization (cTACE) utilizing ethiodized oil as a chemotherapy carrier has become a standard treatment for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and has been adopted as a bridging and downstaging therapy for liver transplantation. Water-in-oil emulsion made up of ethiodized oil and chemotherapy solution is retained in tumor vasculature resulting in high tissue drug concentration and low systemic chemotherapy doses. The density and distribution pattern of ethiodized oil within the tumor on post-treatment imaging are predictive of the extent of tumor necrosis and duration of response to treatment. This review describes the multiple roles of ethiodized oil, particularly in its role as a biomarker of tumor response to cTACE. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: With the increasing complexity of locoregional therapy options, including the use of combination therapies, treatment response assessment has become challenging; Ethiodized oil deposition patterns can serve as an imaging biomarker for the prediction of treatment response, and perhaps predict post-treatment prognosis. KEY POINTS: • Treatment response assessment after locoregional therapy to hepatocellular carcinoma is fraught with multiple challenges given the varied post-treatment imaging appearance. • Ethiodized oil is unique in that its' radiopacity can serve as an imaging biomarker to help predict treatment response. • The pattern of deposition of ethiodozed oil has served as a mechanism to detect portions of tumor that are undertreated and can serve as an adjunct to enhancement in order to improve management in patients treated with intraarterial embolization with ethiodized oil.

Prediction model of no-response before the first transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma: TACF score

Previous clinic models for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) receiving transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) mainly focused on the overall survival, whereas a simple-to-use tool for predicting the response to the first TACE and the management of risk classification before TACE are lacking. Our aim was to develop a scoring system calculated manually for these patients. A total of 437 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who underwent TACE treatment were carefully selected for analysis. They were then randomly divided into two groups: a training group comprising 350 patients and a validation group comprising 77 patients. Furthermore, 45 HCC patients who had recently undergone TACE treatment been included in the study to validate the model's efficacy and applicability. The factors selected for the predictive model were comprehensively based on the results of the LASSO, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The discrimination, calibration ability and clinic utility of models were evaluated in both the training and validation groups. A prediction model incorporated 3 objective imaging characteristics and 2 indicators of liver function. The model showed good discrimination, with AUROCs of 0.735, 0.706 and 0.884 and in the training group and validation groups, and good calibration. The model classified the patients into three groups based on the calculated score, including low risk, median risk and high-risk groups, with rates of no response to TACE of 26.3%, 40.2% and 76.8%, respectively. We derived and validated a model for predicting the response of patients with HCC before receiving the first TACE that had adequate performance and utility. This model may be a useful and layered management tool for patients with HCC undergoing TACE.

Identification of BRD7 by whole-exome sequencing as a predictor for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma in patients undergoing TACE

OBJECTIVE

In the present study, we aimed to identify potential predictors of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using whole-exome sequencing (WES) in patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In A total of 51 patients, newly diagnosed with intermediate-stage HCC between January 2013 and December 2020, were enrolled. Prior to treatment, histological samples were collected for western blotting and immunohistochemistry. The predictive roles of clinical indicators and genes in patient prognosis were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses. Finally, the correlation between imaging features and gene signatures was examined.

RESULTS

Using WES, we identified that bromodomain-containing protein 7 (BRD7) was significantly mutated in patients with different TACE responses. No significant difference in BRD7 expression was observed between patients with and without BRD7 mutations. HCC tumors exhibited higher BRD7 than normal liver tissues. Multivariate analysis revealed that alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), BRD7 expression, and BRD7 mutations were independent risk factors for progression-free survival (PFS). In addition, Child-Pugh class, BRD7 expression, and BRD7 mutations were independent risk factors for overall survival (OS). Patients with wild-type BRD7 and high BRD7 expression had worse PFS and OS, whereas those with mutated BRD7 and low BRD7 expression exhibited the best PFS and OS. The Kruskal-Wallis test revealed that wash-in enhancement on computed tomography might be an independent risk factor for high BRD7 expression.

CONCLUSION

BRD7 expression may be an independent risk factor for prognosis in patients with HCC undergoing TACE. Imaging features such as wash-in enhancement are closely related to BRD7 expression.

Efficacy and Interpretability Analysis of Noninvasive Imaging Based on Computed Tomography in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Initial Transarterial Chemoembolization

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study is to accurately and timely assess the efficacy of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after the initial transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective study consisted of 279 patients with HCC in Center 1, who were split into training and validation cohorts in the ratio of 4:1, and 72 patients in Center 2 as an external testing cohort. Radiomics signatures both in the arterial phase and venous phase of contrast-enhanced computed tomography images were selected by univariate analysis, correlation analysis, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to build the predicting models. The clinical model and combined model were constructed by independent risk factors after univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The biological interpretability of radiomics signatures correlating transcriptome sequencing data was explored using publicly available data sets.

RESULTS

A total of 31 radiomics signatures in the arterial phase and 13 radiomics signatures in the venous phase were selected to construct Radscore_arterial and Radscore_venous, respectively, which were independent risk factors. After constructing the combined model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in three cohorts was 0.865, 0.800, and 0.745, respectively. Through correlation analysis, 11 radiomics signatures in the arterial phase and 4 radiomics signatures in the venous phase were associated with 8 and 5 gene modules, respectively (All P < .05), which enriched some pathways closely related to tumor development and proliferation.

CONCLUSION

Noninvasive imaging has considerable value in predicting the efficacy of patients with HCC after initial TACE. The biological interpretability of the radiological signatures can be mapped at the micro level.

Radiomics features of computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging for predicting response to transarterial chemoembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma: a meta-analysis

Purpose

To examine the methodological quality of radiomics-related studies and evaluate the ability of radiomics to predict treatment response to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods

A systematic review was performed on radiomics-related studies published until October 15, 2022, predicting the effectiveness of TACE for HCC. Methodological quality and risk of bias were assessed using the Radiomics Quality Score (RQS) and Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tools, respectively. Pooled sensitivity, pooled specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) were determined to evaluate the utility of radiomics in predicting the response to TACE for HCC.

Results

In this systematic review, ten studies were eligible, and six of these studies were used in our meta-analysis. The RQS ranged from 7-21 (maximum possible score: 36). The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.89 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.79-0.95) and 0.82 (95% CI = 0.64-0.92), respectively. The overall AUC was 0.93 (95% CI = 0.90-0.95).

Conclusion

Radiomics-related studies evaluating the efficacy of TACE in patients with HCC revealed promising results. However, prospective and multicenter trials are warranted to make radiomics more feasible and acceptable.

MRI-based radiomics model and nomogram for predicting the outcome of locoregional treatment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Prediction of locoregional treatment response is important for further therapeutic strategy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. This study aimed to investigate the role of MRI-based radiomics and nomogram for predicting the outcome of locoregional treatment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

The initial postoperative MRI after locoregional treatment in 100 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma was retrospectively analysed. The outcome was evaluated according to mRECIST at 6 months. We delineated the tumour volume of interest on arterial phase, portal venous phase and T2WI. The radiomics features were selected by using the independent sample t test or nonparametric Mann‒Whitney U test and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. The clinical variables were selected by using univariate analysis and multivariate analysis. The radiomics model and combined model were constructed via multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram was constructed that incorporated the Rad score and selected clinical variables.

RESULTS

Fifty patients had an objective response, and fifty patients had a nonresponse. Nine radiomics features in the arterial phase were selected, but none of the portal venous phase or T2WI radiomics features were predictive of the treatment response. The best radiomics model showed an AUC of 0.833. Two clinical variables (hCRP and therapy method) were selected. The AUC of the combined model was 0.867. There was no significant difference in the AUC between the combined model and the best radiomics model (P = 0.573). Decision curve analysis demonstrated the nomogram has satisfactory predictive value.

CONCLUSIONS

MRI-based radiomics analysis may serve as a promising and noninvasive tool to predict outcome of locoregional treatment in HCC patients, which will facilitate the individualized follow-up and further therapeutic strategies guidance.

Screening prognostic markers for hepatocellular carcinoma based on pyroptosis-related lncRNA pairs

BACKGROUND

Pyroptosis is closely related to cancer prognosis. In this study, we tried to construct an individualized prognostic risk model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) based on within-sample relative expression orderings (REOs) of pyroptosis-related lncRNAs (PRlncRNAs).

METHODS

RNA-seq data of 343 HCC samples derived from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database were analyzed. PRlncRNAs were detected based on differentially expressed lncRNAs between sample groups clustered by 40 reported pyroptosis-related genes (PRGs). Univariate Cox regression was used to screen out prognosis-related PRlncRNA pairs. Then, based on REOs of prognosis-related PRlncRNA pairs, a risk model for HCC was constructed by combining LASSO and stepwise multivariate Cox regression analysis. Finally, a prognosis-related competing endogenous RNA (ceRNA) network was built based on information about lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA interactions derived from the miRNet and TargetScan databases.

RESULTS

Hierarchical clustering of HCC patients according to the 40 PRGs identified two groups with a significant survival difference (Kaplan-Meier log-rank, p = 0.026). Between the two groups, 104 differentially expressed lncRNAs were identified (|log₂(FC)|> 1 and FDR < 5%). Among them, 83 PRlncRNA pairs showed significant associations between their REOs within HCC samples and overall survival (Univariate Cox regression, p < 0.005). An optimal 11-PRlncRNA-pair prognostic risk model was constructed for HCC. The areas under the curves (AUCs) of time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the risk model for 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival were 0.737, 0.705, and 0.797 in the validation set, respectively. Gene Set Enrichment Analysis showed that inflammation-related interleukin signaling pathways were upregulated in the predicted high-risk group (p < 0.05). Tumor immune infiltration analysis revealed a higher abundance of regulatory T cells (Tregs) and M2 macrophages and a lower abundance of CD8 + T cells in the high-risk group, indicating that excessive pyroptosis might occur in high-risk patients. Finally, eleven lncRNA-miRNA-mRNA regulatory axes associated with pyroptosis were established.

CONCLUSION

Our risk model allowed us to determine the robustness of the REO-based PRlncRNA prognostic biomarkers in the stratification of HCC patients at high and low risk. The model is also helpful for understanding the molecular mechanisms between pyroptosis and HCC prognosis. High-risk patients may have excessive pyroptosis and thus be less sensitive to immune therapy.

Radiomics in the diagnosis and treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common malignant tumor. At present, early diagnosis of HCC is difficult and therapeutic methods are limited. Radiomics can achieve accurate quantitative evaluation of the lesions without invasion, and has important value in the diagnosis and treatment of HCC. Radiomics features can predict the development of cancer in patients, serve as the basis for risk stratification of HCC patients, and help clinicians distinguish similar diseases, thus improving the diagnostic accuracy. Furthermore, the prediction of the treatment outcomes helps determine the treatment plan. Radiomics is also helpful in predicting the HCC recurrence, disease-free survival and overall survival. This review summarized the role of radiomics in the diagnosis, treatment and prognosis of HCC.

CT texture analysis in predicting treatment response and survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with transarterial chemoembolization using random forest models

BACKGROUND

Using texture features derived from contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) combined with general imaging features as well as clinical information to predict treatment response and survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who received transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) treatment.

METHODS

From January 2014 to November 2022, 289 patients with HCC who underwent TACE were retrospectively reviewed. Their clinical information was documented. Their treatment-naïve contrast-enhanced CTs were retrieved and reviewed by two independent radiologists. Four general imaging features were evaluated. Texture features were extracted based on the regions of interest (ROIs) drawn on the slice with the largest axial diameter of all lesions using Pyradiomics v3.0.1. After excluding features with low reproducibility and low predictive value, the remaining features were selected for further analyses. The data were randomly divided in a ratio of 8:2 for model training and testing. Random forest classifiers were built to predict patient response to TACE treatment. Random survival forest models were constructed to predict overall survival (OS) and progress-free survival (PFS).

RESULTS

We retrospectively evaluated 289 patients (55.4 ± 12.4 years old) with HCC treated with TACE. Twenty features, including 2 clinical features (ALT and AFP levels), 1 general imaging feature (presence or absence of portal vein thrombus) and 17 texture features, were included in model construction. The random forest classifier achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.947 with an accuracy of 89.5% for predicting treatment response. The random survival forest showed good predictive performance with out-of-bag error rate of 0.347 (0.374) and a continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) of 0.170 (0.067) for the prediction of OS (PFS).

CONCLUSIONS

Random forest algorithm based on texture features combined with general imaging features and clinical information is a robust method for predicting prognosis in patients with HCC treated with TACE, which may help avoid additional examinations and assist in treatment planning.

Radiomics: A radiological evidence-based artificial intelligence technique to facilitate personalized precision medicine in hepatocellular carcinoma

The high postoperative recurrence rates in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remain a major hurdle in its management. Appropriate staging and treatment selection may alleviate the extent of fatal recurrence. However, effective methods to preoperatively evaluate pathophysiologic and molecular characteristics of HCC are lacking. Imaging plays a central role in HCC diagnosis and stratification due to the non-invasive diagnostic criteria. Vast and crucial information is hidden within image data. Other than providing a morphological sketch for lesion diagnosis, imaging could provide new insights to describe the pathophysiological and genetic landscape of HCC. Radiomics aims to facilitate diagnosis and prognosis of HCC using artificial intelligence techniques to harness the immense information contained in medical images. Radiomics produces a set of archetypal and robust imaging features that are correlated to key pathological or molecular biomarkers to preoperatively risk-stratify HCC patients. Inferred with outcome data, comprehensive combination of radiomic, clinical and/or multi-omics data could also improve direct prediction of response to treatment and prognosis. The evolution of radiomics is changing our understanding of personalized precision medicine in HCC management. Herein, we review the key techniques and clinical applications in HCC radiomics and discuss current limitations and future opportunities to improve clinical decision making.

Multi-Task Deep Learning Approach for Simultaneous Objective Response Prediction and Tumor Segmentation in HCC Patients with Transarterial Chemoembolization

This study aimed to develop a deep learning-based model to simultaneously perform the objective response (OR) and tumor segmentation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who underwent transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) treatment. A total of 248 patients from two hospitals were retrospectively included and divided into the training, internal validation, and external testing cohort. A network consisting of an encoder pathway, a prediction pathway, and a segmentation pathway was developed, and named multi-DL (multi-task deep learning), using contrast-enhanced CT images as input. We compared multi-DL with other deep learning-based OR prediction and tumor segmentation methods to explore the incremental value of introducing the interconnected task into a unified network. Additionally, the clinical model was developed using multivariate logistic regression to predict OR. Results showed that multi-DL could achieve the highest AUC of 0.871 in OR prediction and the highest dice coefficient of 73.6% in tumor segmentation. Furthermore, multi-DL can successfully perform the risk stratification that the low-risk and high-risk patients showed a significant difference in survival (p = 0.006). In conclusion, the proposed method may provide a useful tool for therapeutic regime selection in clinical practice.

Predicting early refractoriness of transarterial chemoembolization in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma using a random forest algorithm: A pilot study

Purpose: To develop and validate a random forest (RF) based predictive model of early refractoriness to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods: A total of 227 patients with unresectable HCC who initially treated with TACE from three independent institutions were retrospectively included. Following a random split, 158 patients (70%) were assigned to a training cohort and the remaining 69 patients (30%) were assigned to a validation cohort. The process of variables selection was based on the importance variable scores generated by RF algorithm. A RF predictive model incorporating the selected variables was developed, and five-fold cross-validation was performed. The discrimination and calibration of the RF model were measured by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

Results: The potential variables selected by RF algorithm for developing predictive model of early TACE refractoriness included patients' age, number of tumors, tumor distribution, platelet count (PLT), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). The results showed that the RF predictive model had good discrimination ability, with an area under curve (AUC) of 0.863 in the training cohort and 0.767 in the validation cohort, respectively. In Hosmer-Lemeshow test, the RF model had a satisfactory calibration with P values of 0.538 and 0.068 in training cohort and validation cohort, respectively.

Conclusion: The RF algorithm-based model has a good predictive performance in the prediction of early TACE refractoriness, which may easily be deployed in clinical routine and help to determine the optimal patient of care.