A Random Forest Model for Predicting Social Functional Improvement in Chinese Patients with Schizophrenia After 3 Months of Atypical Antipsychotic Monopharmacy: A Cohort Study

Machine learning methods to predict outcomes of pharmacological treatment in psychosis

In recent years, machine learning (ML) has been a promising approach in the research of treatment outcome prediction in psychosis. In this study, we reviewed ML studies using different neuroimaging, neurophysiological, genetic, and clinical features to predict antipsychotic treatment outcomes in patients at different stages of schizophrenia. Literature available on PubMed until March 2022 was reviewed. Overall, 28 studies were included, among them 23 using a single-modality approach and 5 combining data from multiple modalities. The majority of included studies considered structural and functional neuroimaging biomarkers as predictive features used in ML models. Specifically, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) features contributed to antipsychotic treatment response prediction of psychosis with good accuracies. Additionally, several studies found that ML models based on clinical features might present adequate predictive ability. Importantly, by examining the additive effects of combining features, the predictive value might be improved by applying multimodal ML approaches. However, most of the included studies presented several limitations, such as small sample sizes and a lack of replication tests. Moreover, considerable clinical and analytical heterogeneity among included studies posed a challenge in synthesizing findings and generating robust overall conclusions. Despite the complexity and heterogeneity of methodology, prognostic features, clinical presentation, and treatment approaches, studies included in this review suggest that ML tools may have the potential to predict treatment outcomes of psychosis accurately. Future studies need to focus on refining feature characterization, validating prediction models, and evaluate their translation in real-world clinical practice.

Machine-Learning for Prescription Patterns: Random Forest in the Prediction of Dose and Number of Antipsychotics Prescribed to People with Schizophrenia

Objective

We aimed to predict antipsychotic prescription patterns for people with schizophrenia using machine learning (ML) algorithms.

Methods

In a cross-sectional design, a sample of community mental health service users (SUs; n = 368) with a primary diagnosis of schizophrenia was randomly selected. Socio-demographic and clinical features, including the number, total dose, and route of administration of the antipsychotic treatment were recorded. Information about the number and the length of psychiatric hospitalization was retrieved. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression and ML algorithms (i.e., random forest [RF], supported vector machine, K-nearest neighborhood, and Naïve Bayes) were used to estimate the predictors of total antipsychotic dosage and prescription of antipsychotic polytherapy (APP).

Results

The strongest predictor of the total dose was APP. The number of Community Mental Health Centers (CMHC) contacts was the most important predictor of APP and, with APP omitted, of dosage. Treatment with anticholinergics predicted APP, emphasizing the strong correlation between APP and higher antipsychotic dose. RF performed better than OLS regression and the other ML algorithms in predicting both antipsychotic dose (root square mean error = 0.70, R² = 0.31) and APP (area under the receiving operator curve = 0.66, true positive rate = 0.41, and true negative rate = 0.78).

Conclusion

APP is associated with the prescription of higher total doses of antipsychotics. Frequent attenders at CMHCs, and SUs recently hospitalized are often treated with APP and higher doses of antipsychotics. Future prospective studies incorporating standardized clinical assessments for both psychopathological severity and treatment efficacy are needed to confirm these findings.