Risk prediction and clinical model building for lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma

Risk stratification for central lymph node metastasis in mono-focal papillary thyroid carcinoma patients with encapsulated tumor as confirmed by preoperative ultrasound: a multi-center analysis

PURPOSES

Mono-focal papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients with encapsulated tumor have traditionally been considered as low central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) risk subgroup. The aim of the research was to quantitatively predict the probability of CLNM for mono-focal PTC patients with encapsulated tumor as confirmed by preoperative ultrasound based on pre- and post-operative indexes respectively to guide the selection of prophylactic central lymph node dissection (CLND) and follow-up strategies.

METHODS

A total of 1014 mono-focal PTC patients with encapsulated tumor as confirmed by preoperative ultrasound from three medical centers were retrospectively analyzed, with 534 patients served as Training group and 480 patients as Validation group.

RESULTS

Multivariate analyses showed that age < 55 years old, male, clinical maximum tumor diameter (cMTD) > 0.5 cm, pathological maximum tumor diameter (pMTD) > 0.5 cm, and the presence of microscopic thyroid capsular invasion (mTCI) were independent CLNM risk factors. These were used to construct two nomograms that can effectively predict the central neck involvement in mono-focal PTC patients with encapsulated tumor. The first nomogram (pre-model) provides quantitative assessment on the necessity of prophylactic CLND, while the second nomogram (post-model) informs postoperative follow-up strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

Meticulous and comprehensive stratification flow charts that quantitatively evaluate the risk of central lymph node metastasis both pre- and post-operatively were constructed for mono-focal PTC patients with encapsulated tumor as confirmed by preoperative ultrasound, which may benefit both clinical decision-making of prophylactic CLND and postoperative follow-up strategies for the management of neck regions.

Demographic, clinical, and surgical features of patients undergoing thyroidectomy due to thyroid lesions in Southern Iran: A cross-sectional study

Background and Aims

The incidence of thyroid cancer has witnessed a significant global increase and stands as one of the most prevalent cancers in Iran. This surge is primarily attributed to the escalating incidence of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC), with overdiagnosis emerging as an equally noteworthy factor. Consequently, this study aims to ascertain the incidence of thyroid cancer, along with its clinical presentation, demographic characteristics, and surgical features in patients undergoing thyroid surgery.

Methods

This cross-sectional study involved the evaluation of patient files from referral centers in Shiraz spanning the years 2015-2020. Demographic and clinical information pertaining to thyroid cancer was extracted and subsequently analyzed using SPSS software.

Results

A total of 533 documented cases of thyroid cancer undergoing surgery revealed an annual rate of 89 cases in our location. The average age of the patients was 43.9 ± 13.4 years (ranging from 13 to 92), with females constituting 429 (83.5%) of the cases, and 278 (54.1%) being malignant. Conventional PTC emerged as the most prevalent pathology, accounting for 239 (45.0%) of the cases. Patients with thyromegaly exhibited significantly higher incidences of nonmalignant tumors (p = 0.01), while those with malignant tumors were notably younger than those with nonmalignant tumors (p = 0.001).

Conclusion

Our study revealed a progressive rise in the number of patients undergoing thyroidectomy over the years, with PTC constituting the majority of cases. Malignant cases were more frequently observed in younger patients, and in smaller lesion sizes, highlighting the importance of early screening and optimizing detection methods, especially in high-risk populations.

Lateral lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: a study of 5241 follow-up patients

PURPOSE

To investigate the impact of lateral lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC).

METHODS

5241 PTMC patients with follow-up information were enrolled in the current study. These patients underwent primary surgery in our situation from January 1997 to December 2016. Additionally, a validation cohort consisting of 274 PTMC patients who underwent primary surgery between January 2020 and December 2021 was also included. Univariable and multivariate logistic analyses were conducted to identify the association between clinicopathologic features and lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM). Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis was used to calculate the disease-free survival (DFS) rate. The fitting curve was generated to identify the quantitative relationship between central lymph node metastases (CLNM) and LLNM.

RESULTS

Of 5241 PTMC patients, cervical lymph node metastasis was detected in 1494 (28.5%) cases, including 1364 (26.0%) with CLNM only and 130 (2.5%) with LLNM. With a median follow-up time of 60 months (interquartile range [IQR], 44-81), recurrence was detected in 114 patients (2.2%). Multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that LNM was the only independent risk factor for recurrence, with HR values of 3.03 in CLNM and 11.14 in LLNM, respectively. Tumor diameter >0.5 cm (hazard ratio [HR]:1.80), multifocality (HR:2.59), bilaterality (HR:2.13), extrathyroidal invasion (HR:2.13), and CLNM (HR:5.11) were independent risk factors for LLNM. The prevalence of LLNM escalated significantly with increasing number of lymph node involvement in CLNM when stratified by the number of metastatic lymph nodes and trend was observed similarly in the validation cohort. The fitting curve showed that the incidence of LLNM could be as high as 20.7% when the number of CLNM ≥ 5.

CONCLUSIONS

By analyzing a large database with follow-up information, our study provides evidence that LLNM is significantly correlated with tumor recurrence in patients with PTMC. Tumor size (>0.5 cm), multifocality, bilaterality, extrathyroidal extension (ETE) and CLNM are independent risk factors for LLNM.

Advances in the management of anaplastic thyroid carcinoma: transforming a life-threatening condition into a potentially treatable disease

Anaplastic thyroid cancer (ATC) is an infrequent thyroid tumor that usually occurs in elderly patients. There is often a history of previous differentiated thyroid cancer suggesting a biological progression. It is clinically characterized by a locally invasive cervical mass of rapid onset. Metastases are found at diagnosis in 50% of patients. Due to its adverse prognosis, a prompt diagnosis is crucial. In patients with unresectable or metastatic disease, multimodal therapy (chemotherapy and external beam radiotherapy) has yielded poor outcomes with 12-month overall survival of less than 20%. Recently, significant progress has been made in understanding the oncogenic pathways of ATC, leading to the identification of BRAF V600E mutations as the driver oncogene in nearly 40% of cases. The combination of the BRAF inhibitor dabrafenib (D) and MEK inhibitor trametinib (T) showed outstanding response rates in BRAF-mutated ATC and is now considered the standard of care in this setting. Recently, it was shown that neoadjuvant use of DT followed by surgery achieved 24-month overall survival rates of 80%. Although these approaches have changed the management of ATC, effective therapies are still needed for patients with BRAF wild-type ATC, and high-quality evidence is lacking for most aspects of this neoplasia. Additionally, in real-world settings, timely access to multidisciplinary care, molecular testing, and targeted therapies continues to be a challenge. Health policies are warranted to ensure specialized treatment for ATC.The expanding knowledge of ATC´s molecular biology, in addition to the ongoing clinical trials provides hope for the development of further therapeutic options.

Correlation analysis of risk factors for cervical lymphatic metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to identify and analyze the risk factors associated with Cervical Lymph Node Metastasis (CNM) in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma (PTC) patients.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study involving the clinicopathological data of 2384 PTC patients admitted to our hospital between January 2016 and December 2020. All relevant data were statistically processed and analyzed.

RESULTS

The related risk factors for Central Lymph Node Metastasis (CLNM) were gender (male), age (≤ 30 years old), tumor lesion size (> 0.855 cm), and multifocal tumor foci. The ROC curve revealed that the critical value for predicting CLNM based on tumor lesion size was 0.855 (sensitivity = 57.9%, specificity = 69%, AUC = 0.269, and P < 0.05). Lateral Lymph Node Metastasis (LLNM) was positively correlated with tumor diameter. Specifically, the LLNM rate increased with the tumor diameter. LLNM occurrence was significantly higher in zones II, III, and IV than in zones I and V. Although the BRAF gene mutation detection assay has certain clinical benefits in diagnosing PTC and LLNM, no statistically significant difference was found in its relationship with central and lateral neck lymph node metastases (P = 0.741).

CONCLUSION

Our findings revealed that CLNM is associated with gender (male), age (≤ 30 years old), tumor lesion size (> 0.855 cm), and multiple tumor lesions in PTC patients. Central Lymph Node Dissection (CLND) is recommended for patients with these risk factors. On the other hand, preoperative ultrasound examination, fine-needle pathological examination, and genetic testing should be used to determine whether Lateral Cervical Lymph Node Dissection (LLND) is needed.

Evaluation of Hematoma Formation after Thyroidectomy Surgery and Its Related Factors

Background

In the last decade, the number of patients undergoing thyroidectomy has increased. Compared to other methods, thyroidectomy is a relatively safe method for treating various types of thyroid diseases. However, the blood flow rate in the thyroid gland is high, and hematoma after thyroidectomy is one of its complications. We aimed to evaluate hematoma after thyroidectomy and its related factors.

Methods

In this retrospective study, 2320 patients over 20 years of age who underwent thyroidectomy in Imam Khomeini, Arvand, and Mehr Ahvaz hospitals, Khuzestan Province, southern Iran between 2011 and 2022 were enrolled. Data were analyzed using SPSS software, version 22.

Results

70.7% of the patients were in the age range of 20-50 years. Twenty-five (1.1%) of patients developed a hematoma after thyroidectomy. Males are more likely to hematoma after surgery (P=0.01). Hematoma was significantly higher in patients with a history of hypertension (P=0.001). Moreover, a significant association was found between male gender, and age over 50 years with the risk of hematoma (P<0.05). The incidence of hematoma had a statistically remarkable correlation with follicular thyroid cancer pathology (P=0.001). Other pathology diagnoses were not significantly related to hematoma formation after thyroidectomy.

Conclusions

Hematoma after thyroidectomy surgery is a rare, but dangerous and life-threatening complication. It is important to identify risk factors for hematoma formation.

Risk prediction for <1 cm lateral lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma

Background

Because the diameter of the suspicious lymph nodes is less than 1 cm and adjacent to important structures in the neck, the diagnosis of small LLNM is important but difficult without the help of fine needle aspiration (FNA). There are no relevant reports of risk factors that predict the risk of suspicious <1 cm LLNM.

Methods

A total of 159 PTMC patients with suspicious <1 cm LLNM were included in the study. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify ultrasound independent predictors of LLNM. A predictive model was developed according to multivariate logistic regression and evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow fit test.

Results

Age ≤ 38 years old, the largest PTMC was located in the upper part, and the presence of liquefaction or microcalcification in suspicious lymph nodes were independent risk factors for LLNM (univariate analysis P = 0.00, 0.00, 0.00; multivariate analysis P = 0.00, 0.02, 0.00. OR = 4.66 [CI: 1.78-12.21], 3.04 [CI: 1.24-7.46], 6.39 [CI: 1.85-22.00]). The predictive model for the diagnosis of suspicious <1 cm lymph nodes was established as: P = ex/(1 + ex). X = -1.29 + (1.11 × whether the largest tumor is located in the upper part) + (1.54 × whether the age is ≤ 38 years) + (1.85 × whether the suspicious lymph nodes have liquefaction/microcalcification). The Hosmer-Lemeshow fit test was used to test the predicted ability, and it found that the predictive model had a good fit and prediction accuracy (X2 = 6.214, P = 0.623 > 0.05). Chi squared trend analysis showed that the increase in the number of risk factors gradually increased the malignancy possibility of suspicious <1 cm lymph nodes (chi squared trend test, P = 0.00).

Conclusions

Age ≤ 38 years old, the largest PTMC located in the upper part, and the presence of liquefaction or microcalcification in suspicious lymph nodes were independent risk factors for suspicious <1 cm LLNM in PTMC patients. Our result show that it is feasible to evaluate the malignant possibility of these lymph nodes using the number of risk factors.

Developing and validating a multivariable machine learning model for the preoperative prediction of lateral lymph node metastasis of papillary thyroid cancer

Background

At present, preoperative diagnosis of lateral cervical lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) mostly depends on the training and expertise of ultrasound doctors. A machine-learning model for predicting LLNM accurately before PTC surgery may help to determine the scope of surgery and reduce unnecessary surgical trauma.

Methods

The data of patients with primary PTC who underwent thyroidectomy with lateral cervical lymph node surgery at Beijing Tongren Hospital between July 2009 and June 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. All patients had complete ultrasonic examination, clinical data, and definite pathology diagnosis of lymph nodes. LLNM was confirmed by postoperative pathology. The patients were randomly divided into a training set (155 cases) and a test set (98 cases) at a ratio of 6:4. Eleven parameters, including patient demographics, ultrasound results, and tumor-related conditions, were collected, and a prediction model was established using the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm. Several other machine-learning algorithms were also used to establish models for comparison. The accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, sensitivity, specificity, Cohen's kappa value, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were used to evaluate model performance.

Results

A total of 87 males and 156 females were included in the study, aged 14-80 years. One hundred and four patients of them had LLNM and 139 did not have LLNM. The pandas Python library was used for the statistical analysis, and the Spearman coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between each parameter and the prediction index. The SVM model performed the best among all the models. Its accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, sensitivity, specificity, Cohen's kappa value, and AUC were 90.8%, 91.0%, 90.8%, 90.8%, 87.5%, 94.0%, 81.6%, and 91.0%, respectively.

Conclusions

This model can enable surgeons to improve the accuracy of ultrasonography in predicting LLNM without additional examination, thus avoiding missing positive lateral cervical lymph nodes and reducing the sequelae caused by unnecessary lateral neck dissection.

Exploring risk factors for cervical lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: construction of a novel population-based predictive model

BACKGROUND

Machine learning was a highly effective tool in model construction. We aim to establish a machine learning-based predictive model for predicting the cervical lymph node metastasis (LNM) in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC).

METHODS

We obtained data on PTMC from the SEER database, including 10 demographic and clinicopathological characteristics. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression (LR) analyses were applied to screen the risk factors for cervical LNM in PTMC. Risk factors with P < 0.05 in multivariate LR analysis were used as modeling variables. Five different machine learning (ML) algorithms including extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), gaussian naive bayes (GNB) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and traditional regression analysis were used to construct the prediction model. Finally, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was used to compare the model performance.

RESULTS

Through univariate and multivariate LR analysis, we screened out 9 independent risk factors most closely associated with cervical LNM in PTMC, including age, sex, race, marital status, region, histology, tumor size, and extrathyroidal extension (ETE) and multifocality. We used these risk factors to build an ML prediction model, in which the AUROC value of the XGBoost algorithm was higher than the other 4 ML algorithms and was the best ML model. We optimized the XGBoost algorithm through 10-fold cross-validation, and its best performance on the training set (AUROC: 0.809, 95%CI 0.800-0.818) was better than traditional LR analysis (AUROC: 0.780, 95%CI 0.772-0.787).

CONCLUSIONS

ML algorithms have good predictive performance, especially the XGBoost algorithm. With the continuous development of artificial intelligence, ML algorithms have broad prospects in clinical prognosis prediction.

A protective factor against lymph node metastasis of papillary thyroid cancer: Female gender

OBJECTIVE

Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is the most common pathological type of thyroid cancer, with good prognosis, but the rate of lymph node metastasis (LNM) is high, and the difference between men and women is significant. Therefore, the related risk factors for LNM of PTC based on gender were examined in this study in order to draw attention to gender factor in PTC.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the clinicopathological data of 2103 patients with surgically confirmed PTC at the Fourth affiliated Hospital of Hebei Medical University West Side between January 2016 and December 2019.

RESULTS

LNM was detected in 1124 of the 2103 cases of PTC. Logistic regression analysis showed that LNM was associated with age (p < 0.001, OR:0.547), gender (p < 0.001, OR:2.609), tumor diameter (p < 0.001, OR:2.995), bilaterality (p=0.003, OR:1.683), and extrathyroid extension (p < 0.001, OR:1.657). After propensity score matching, female gender (p < 0.001, OR: 0.393) remained an independent factor of LNM in patients with PTC. LNM in men was only associated with diameter (p < 0.001, OR: 3.246). LNM in woman was associated with menopausal history (p = 0.012, OR=0.684), reproductive history (p < 0.001, OR=0.360), abortion history (p = 0.011, OR=0.725), tumor diameter >1 cm (p < 0.001, OR=2.807), bilaterality (p =0.006, OR:1.728), and extrathyroid extension (p < 0.001, OR=1.879).

CONCLUSION

Although the invasion is high in female patients, the rate of LNM is significantly reduced due to the influence of sex hormones and reproductive factors. For female patients of childbearing age who were not pregnant and did not have children, it is suggested to take a positive attitude towards their lymph nodes.

Correlation Analysis of Nodular Sonographic Parameters with Cervical Lymph Node Metastases in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Background

Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is the most common thyroid carcinoma and is prone to cervical lymph node metastases (CLNM). We aim to analyze the correlation between clinical information, ultrasonic parameters of PTC, and CLNM.

Methods

1335 patients who had pathologically confirmed unifocal PTC were enrolled in this retrospective cohort study. Univariate and multivariate logistic analyses were performed to predict CLNM in PTC patients. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the diagnostic performance.

Results

Univariate analysis showed that gender, age, maximum tumor diameter and volume, and cross-sectional and longitudinal aspect ratio were related to CLNM (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic analysis showed that gender, age, maximum tumor diameter, and volume were independent correlative factors, and the cross-sectional aspect ratio had significant difference for PTC2 to predict CLNM. The area under the curve (AUC) of the maximum tumor diameter and volume was 0.738 and 0.733, respectively. Maximum tumor diameter and volume and the cross-sectional and longitudinal aspect ratio were statistically significant following analysis of variance (P < 0.05).

Conclusions

Younger age, male, and larger tumor were high risk factors for CLNM in patients with unifocal PTC. The cross-sectional aspect ratio had a more effective predictive value for CLNM in patients with larger thyroid tumors.

Integrating BRAFV600E mutation, ultrasonic and clinicopathologic characteristics for predicting the risk of cervical central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma

Background

The advantages of prophylactic central lymph node dissection (CLND) for clinically node-negative patients remained a great deal of controversies. Our research was aimed to analyze the relationship between cervical central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) and BRAF^V600E mutation, ultrasonic and clinicopathologic characterizes in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).

Methods and materials

In current study, a total of 112 consecutive PTC patients who experienced thyroidectomy plus cervical central neck dissection were included in our research. All PTC were pre-operatively analyzed by ultrasonic features, including tumor size, multifocality or not, tumor location, internal components, echogenicity, microcalcification, margins, orientation, taller than wide shape, and internal vascularity. The presence of clinicopathologic factors, including age, sex, T stage, Hashimoto’s thyroiditis, and BRAF^V600E mutation was then investigated. Univariate and multivariate analysis were conducted to check into the relationship between predictive factors and cervical CLNM in PTC patients, and then a predictive model was also established.

Results

Pathologically, 58.0% (65/112) of the PTC patients harbored cervical CLNM. Univariate and multivariate analysis were conducted to identify age < 55 years, tumor size > 10 mm, microcalcification, non-concomitant Hashimoto’s thyroiditis and BRAF^V600E mutation were predictive factors for cervical CLNM in PTC. The risk score for cervical CLNM in PTC patients was calculated: risk score = 1.284 × (if age < 55 years) + 1.241 × (if tumor size > 10 mm) + 1.143 × (if microcalcification) – 2.097 × (if concomitant Hashimoto’s thyroiditis) + 1.628 × (if BRAF^V600E mutation).

Conclusion

Age < 55 years old, PTC > 10 mm, microcalcification, non-concomitant Hashimoto’s thyroiditis and BRAF^V600E mutation are predictive factors for cervical CLNM. BRAF^V600E mutation by pre-operative US-FNA technology synergized with clinicopathologic and ultrasonic features is expected to guide the appropriate surgical management for PTC patients.

Glucose-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (GLR) as a Predictor of Preoperative Central Lymph Node Metastasis in Papillary Thyroid Cancer Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Construction of the Nomogram

Background

Detection of metastasis of central lymph nodes in papillary thyroid cancer is difficult before surgery. The role of routine or preventive central lymph node dissection in the management of papillary thyroid cancer remains inconclusive. Moreover, glucose metabolism and systemic inflammation are related to the aggressiveness of several malignant tumors and the prognoses of these patients. This study aimed to construct a nomogram based on the readily available preoperative clinical features for predicting the occurrence of preoperative central lymph node metastasis in patients with papillary thyroid cancer and type 2 diabetes mellitus. The findings may underlie clinical implications for determining the appropriate treatment strategies for these patients.

Methods

A total of 419 patients were enrolled. We used the receiver operating characteristic curves to determine the best cut-off value and converted the continuous into categorical variables. Next, a single-factor logistic analysis for the independent variables was performed, following which a multivariate regression analysis was conducted for the selected significant risk factors. Finally, the nomogram was constructed and verified using external data; the existing data were compared with the original model.

Results

According to the receiver operating characteristic curves, the best cut-off values ​​for glucose-to-lymphocyte ratio and tumor size were 4.23 cm and 0.95 cm, respectively. Findings from the multivariate logistic regression analysis suggested that age, bilateral tumors, maximum tumor size, and the ratio of glucose-to-lymphocytes were independent risk factors for preoperative central lymph node metastasis. The C-indexes in the training and the external validation data sets were 0.733 and 0.664, respectively. Both calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow tests indicated that the model was well-calibrated. Through decision curve analysis, the predictive model was estimated to have strong clinical applicability and greater benefits. To compare the performance of the new with that of the original model, we performed a net reclassification index and the integrated discrimination improvement analyses, both of which indicated that the new model had a better predictive ability.

Conclusion

In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and papillary thyroid cancer, a high preoperative glucose-to-lymphocyte ratio was an independent predictor of the preoperative central lymph node metastasis. The nomogram so constructed could better predict the preoperative central lymph node metastasis in these patients.

A multi-institutional study of association of sonographic characteristics with cervical lymph node metastasis in unifocal papillary thyroid carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is the most common pathological type of thyroid carcinoma, and is prone to cervical lymph node metastases (CLNM). We aim to evaluate the association between sonographic characteristics of PTC and CLNM before the initial surgery.

METHODS

Clinical information as well as ultrasonographic measurements and characteristics for 2376 patients from three hospitals were acquired in this retrospective cohort study. Univariate and multivariate logistic analysis were performed to predict CLNM in unifocal PTC patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was created to evaluate diagnostic performance.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis showed that gender, age, maximum tumor diameter and volume, cross-sectional and longitudinal aspect ratio, location, echogenicity, margin, and echogenic foci were independently associated with CLNM metastatic status (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic analysis showed that gender, age, maximum tumor diameter and volume, cross-sectional aspect ratio (CSAR), location, echogenicity, margin, and echogenic foci were independent correlative factors; CSAR showed a significant difference for PTC2 to predict CLNM. The area under the curve (AUC) of the maximum tumor diameter, tumor volume, margin, and echogenic foci was 0.70, 0.69, 0.65, and 0.70, respectively. The multiple-variable linear regression model was constructed with an AUC of 0.77, a specificity of 73.4%, and a sensitivity of 72.3%. Kruskal-Wallis analysis for positive subgroups, maximum tumor diameter and volume, cross-sectional and longitudinal aspect ratio, margin, and echogenic foci showed statistical significance (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Younger age (< 55 years), male, larger tumor, and echogenic foci were high risk factors for CLNM in patients with unifocal PTC. CSAR had a more effective predictive value for CLNM in patients with larger thyroid tumors. A larger tumor with irregular and punctate echogenic foci was also more prone to the lateral neck, and both central and lateral neck metastasis.

Patterns of Occult Metastasis to Level Va and Vb in Clinically Lateral Node-Positive Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The optimal extent of therapeutic lateral neck dissection (ND) in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) continues to be debated. We analyzed the frequency, patterns, and predictive factors of occult level Va and Vb metastasis in clinically lateral node-positive PTC patients.

METHODS

We reviewed the data of PTC patients who underwent thyroidectomy and therapeutic lateral ND from level II to V between May 2008 and August 2020. In our study, 46 patients without clinically positive metastatic lymph nodes (LNs) at level V on the preoperative evaluation were included to analyze occult metastasis at level Va and Vb, respectively. Patient demographics, including age, sex, distribution of pathologic LNs, and characteristics of the primary tumors, were reviewed. In addition, clinicopathologic factors associated with occult level Va and Vb metastasis were analyzed.

RESULTS

Of the 46 patients, 14 (30.4%) patients had occult metastases at level Vb. No occult metastases were found at level Va. Clinically positive level II metastasis (p = 0.015) and simultaneous level II, III, and IV metastases (p = 0.010) in the preoperative evaluation were significantly associated with occult level Vb metastasis. Patients without LN metastasis at level IV or with three or fewer metastatic LNs in the lateral neck never had occult LN metastases at level Vb.

CONCLUSIONS

Occult metastasis at level Va is rare in PTC with lateral LN metastasis. Occult metastasis at level Vb may occur in PTC patients with multilevel involvement, including level II and/or four or more lateral LN metastases.

Sex-Specific Differences in Outcomes Following Thyroidectomy: A Population-Based Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Numbers of thyroidectomies and awareness of postoperative quality measures have both increased. Potential sex-specific variations in clinical outcomes of patients undergoing thyroidectomy are controversial.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate sex-specific differences in outcomes following thyroidectomy.

METHODS

This is a population-based cohort study of all adult patients undergoing either hemi- or total thyroidectomy in Switzerland from 2011 to 2015. The primary outcome was all-cause 30-day readmission rate. The main secondary outcomes were intensive care unit (ICU) admission, surgical re-intervention, in-hospital mortality, length of hospital stay (LOS), postoperative calcium disorder, vocal cord paresis, and hematoma.

RESULTS

Of 16,776 patients undergoing thyroidectomy, the majority of patients undergoing thyroidectomy were female (79%), with a median age of 52 (IQR 42-64) years. Within 30 days after the surgery, male patients had significantly higher rates of hospital readmission (adjusted risk ratio [RR] 1.38; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.11-1.72, p = 0.008) and higher risks for postoperative ICU admission (RR 1.25; 95% CI, 1.09-1.44, p = 0.003) than female patients. There were no significant differences among sexes in the LOS, rates of surgical re-interventions, or in-hospital mortality. While postoperative calcium disorders due to hypoparathyroidism were less prevalent among male patients (RR 0.63; 95% CI, 0.54-0.72, p < 0.001), a 2-fold higher incidence rate of postoperative hematoma was observed (RR 1.93, 95% CI, 1.51-2.46, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Male patients undergoing thyroidectomy have higher 30-day hospital readmission and ICU admission rates. Following surgery, male patients revealed higher rates of neck hematoma, while hypocalcemia was more frequent among female patients.

Influencing Factors and Cumulative Risk Analysis of Cervical Lymph Node Metastasis of Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

Objective

To explore the influencing factors and cumulative risk of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) patients.

Methods

607 patients confirmed PTMC pathologically after thyroidectomy were enrolled in this retrospective study. The rate of LNM was calculated. Different clinicopathological characteristics were compared in PTMC patients with and without LNM and in different subgroups of LNM, respectively. Correlation between clinicopathological characteristics and LNM was analyzed and the cumulative risk of LNM according to different clinicopathological characteristics was calculated.

Results

(1) There were 228 cases (37.56%) of PTMC combined with LNM. Compared with the non-lymph node metastasis group, the proportion of age <55 years, male, multiple foci, bilateral foci, diameter>0.5cm, extracapsular invasion, HT and intermediate-to-high risk stratification for recurrence of the LNM group was significantly increased (all p<0.05);(2) Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age <55years, male, multiple foci, diameter>0.5cm,HT were independently positively correlated with LNM (all p <0.05); (3) Subgroup analysis showed that women aged <55 years combined with HT and aged≥55 years combined with BMI≥25 kg/m² were independently positively associated with LNM; (4) With the increase of the tumor diameter, the cumulative risk of LNM in group of age <55 years, males, and multiple foci increased gradually, and was higher than those of age≥55 years, females and single foci, respectively. (5) Among the 228 cases of LNM, the proportion of lymph nodes (LN) >5 and the positive rate of LN were both higher in male group than that in the female group. The proportion of multiple foci and HT in LLNM group was higher than that in CLNM group (all P<0.05).

Conclusion

Age <55 years, males, multiple foci, diameter >0.5cm and HT were independent risk factors of LNM; HT was an independent risk factor for LNM in female <55 years old, and BMI≥25 kg/m² was an independent risk factor for LNM in female ≥55 years old; The increase of tumor diameter in age <55 years, males, multiple foci, and bilateral foci increased the cumulative risk of LNM, respectively; The number of LNM and the positive rate of LNM were both higher in male, and patients with multiple foci or HT were more likely to develop into LLNM.

Development and validation of a population-based model for predicting the regional lymph node metastasis in adolescent differentiated thyroid carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Adolescent differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) is a rare type of thyroid cancer that represents a special entity of all endocrine-related cancer. This study aims to establish the first nomogram for predicting the regional (central and lateral) lymph node metastasis (LNM) in the adolescent population for better surgical management.

METHOD

We retrospectively reviewed the clinicopathology characteristics of adolescent patients with DTC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2010 and 2015.

RESULTS

A total of 1,930 adolescent patients between the ages of 10 and 24 years from the SEER database were enrolled in this study. Six predictive factors including age, race, histology, multifocality, extrathyroidal invasion (EI) and tumor size were identified to be significantly associated with the regional LNM via univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. These indicators were used to construct a nomogram for predicting the regional LNM in adolescent patients with DTC. Moreover, a satisfied predictive ability of the model was determined with a C-index of 0.794, supported by an internal validation group with a C-index of 0.776. The Decision Curve Analysis and calibration curve further conducted a great agreement in our model.

CONCLUSION

The first predictive model containing multiple factors has been successfully established with good discrimination for predicting the regional LNM in adolescent patients with DTC. This nomogram could effectively help surgeons to make better individualized surgical decision intraoperatively, especially in terms of whether cervical lymph node dissection (LND) is warranted.

Risk stratification of papillary thyroid microcarcinomas via an easy-to-use system based on tumor size and location: clinical and pathological correlations

Introduction: We aimed to determine whether two clinically accessible parameters, tumor size and location within the thyroid, correlate with clinicopathological features that are predictors of high risk in papillary thyroid microcarcinomas (PTMCs). Materials and Methods: PTMC cases were obtained from the database of the Department of Pathology, Emergency County Hospital, Târgu Mureş, Romania. Four tumor groups were created based on tumor size and location: Group I (≥5 mm, subcapsular), Group II (≥5 mm, nonsubcapsular), Group III (<5 mm, subcapsular), and Group IV (<5 mm, nonsubcapsular) PTMCs. Clinicopathological features and follow-up data were compared by univariate and multivariate analysis. Results: Our study included 164 PTMCs (n=70/20/19/55 in Groups I/II/III/IV, respectively). High-grade morphological features, such as plump pink cells (p=0.010), tumor desmoplasia (p=0.022) and sclerosis (p=0.001), infiltrative tumor borders (p=0.005), positive resection margins (p=0.005), invasion into the perithyroid adipose tissue (p=0.001), irregular nuclear membranes (p=0.004), and pseudoinclusions (p=0.001) were significantly more prevalent among Group I PTMCs. Group IV PTMCs were characterized by a paucity of the above-mentioned morphological features, while Group II and III PTMCs displayed intermediate morphological profiles. Conclusions: Group I PTMCs proved to be associated with more aggressive morphological features and might need a more careful clinical approach.

Risk Factors and a Prediction Model of Lateral Lymph Node Metastasis in CN0 Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Patients With 1-2 Central Lymph Node Metastases

BACKGROUND

Papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) in clinically lymph node-negative (cN0) patients is prone toward lymph node metastasis. As a risk factor for tumor persistence and local recurrence, lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) is related to the number of central lymph node metastases (CLNMs).

METHODS

We performed LLNM risk stratification based on the number of CLNMs for cN0 PTC patients who underwent thyroidectomy and lymph node dissection between January 2013 and December 2018. A retrospective analysis was applied to the 274 collected patients with 1-2 CLNMs. We examined the clinicopathological characteristics of the patients and constructed a LASSO model.

RESULTS

In the 1-2 CLNM group, tumors >10 mm located in the upper region and nodular goiters were independent risk factors for LLNM. Specifically, tumors >20 mm and located in the upper region contributed to metastasis risk at level II. Hashimoto's thyroiditis reduced this risk (p = 0.045, OR = 0.280). Age ≤ 30 years and calcification (microcalcification within thyroid nodules) correlated with LLNM. The LASSO model divided the population into low- (25.74%) and high-risk (57.25%) groups for LLNM, with an AUC of 0.715.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with 1-2 CLNMs, young age, calcification, nodular goiter, tumor >10 mm, and tumor in the upper region should alert clinicians to considering a higher occult LLNM burden. Close follow-up and therapy adjustment may be warranted for high-risk patients.

Clinical and pathologic predictors of lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinomas

Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) has the highest incidence among all thyroid carcinomas. Although surgery is the primary treatment for PTMC, it inevitably leads to trauma and some complications. To formulate an optimal treatment strategy, we aim to clarify the risk factors for lymph node metastasis (LNM) in PTMC patients. This study retrospectively analyzed patients who underwent thyroidectomy during 1995-2015, and grouped them according to lymph node metastasis. Age, gender, tumor size, thyroid functions, Hashimoto's thyroiditis, multifocal tumor, extrathyroidal extensions, capsular invasion were analyzed. Of the 2434 PTMC subjects, proportion of patients with no LNM (NLNM), LNM, central LNM (CLNM), lateral LNM (LLNM), CLNM + LLNM were 82.9%, 17.1%, 7.0%, 7.6% and 2.5%. Patients with NLNM were older and had a lower proportion of males compared to patients with CLNM, LLNM and CLNM + LLNM (p < 0.05). The NLNM group also had a smaller size of ultrasound tumor, lower proportion of multifocal tumor and extrathyroidal extension compared to CLNM, LLNM and CLNM + LLNM groups (p < 0.05). On univariate analyses, male gender, age <45 years, tumor size of pathology (˃0.75 cm), multifocality, and extrathyroidal extension were significantly associated with LNM. Multivariate analyses revealed that male gender, age <45 years, multifocality were risk factors for LNM. In conclusion, PTMC patients with male gender, age <45 years and multifocality should be evaluated carefully for possible LNM.

Management of Lateral Multiple-Level Metastasis in N1b Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

Background: The optimal extent of therapeutic lateral neck dissection (LND) in the management of N1b papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is still under debate in clinical practice. In this light, our study aims to explore the incidence, patterns, and predictive factors of the lateral multiple-level metastasis in N1b PTMC patients. Methods: The clinical records of 142 patients diagnosed with N1b PTMC who underwent therapeutic LND from July 2015 to November 2018 at our institution were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to examine the predictive factors associated with lateral multiple-level metastasis. The recurrence-free survival was analyzed and confirmed by Kaplan-Meier plots and log-rank test. Results: The overall frequency of lateral multiple-level metastasis was 50.7% in N1b PTMC patients, and two-level to four-level simultaneous metastasis were present in 26.8, 17.6, and 6.3% patients, respectively. Extrathyroidal extension (ETE) (OR = 5.79, 95% CI, 1.36-24.59; P = 0.017) and the central metastatic lymph node ratio (CLNR) with values equal or higher than 0.61 (OR = 6.18, 95% CI, 2.53-15.09; P < 0.001) served as independent predictors of multiple-level metastasis in N1b PTMC patients. Moreover, locoregional recurrence was significantly higher in the selective neck dissection (SND) group compared to the modified radical neck dissection (MRND) one (HR = 3.65, 95% CI, 1.11-12.00; P = 0.03). Conclusion: Our results show that the lateral multiple-level metastasis was relatively common, and we suggest MRND to be considered for N1b PTMC patients with ETE or CLNR equal or higher than 0.61.

Prediction of level V metastases in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: a single center analysis

Background

The rate of level V metastases is significantly low and the necessity of routine level V dissection for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) with clinically lateral lymph node metastasis (LNM) is still controversial.

Methods

This study enrolled 114 consecutive PTMC patients with clinically suspected lateral LNM (N1b) who underwent modified radical neck dissection (levels II to V) at Xiangya Hospital of Central South University from September 2016 to July 2019. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to investigate the predictive factors of level V metastasis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), accuracy, specificity and sensitivity were used to determine the predictive value.

Results

The overall and occult rate of level V metastasis were 29.82% (34/114) and 7.02% (8/114), respectively. Univariate analysis showed that level V metastasis was significantly associated with gross extrathyroidal extension (ETE), level IV metastasis and 2-level simultaneous metastasis (all P<0.05). Gross ETE (OR =11.916, 95% CI, 1.404-102.19; P=0.023) and level IV metastasis (OR =8.497, 95% CI, 2.119-34.065; P =0.03) served as independent predictors of level V metastasis in N1b PTMC patients. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of gross ETE and level IV metastasis in predicting the level V metastasis were 25.3% vs. 82.4%, 97.5% vs. 73.8%, 82.69% vs. 76.32%, 80% vs. 57.04% and 75% vs. 90.77%, respectively. The AUC of gross ETE was lower than level IV metastasis (0.605 vs. 0.781, P=0.041).

Conclusions

Routine level V dissection is necessary in N1b PTMC patients with level IV metastasis or gross ETE. Compared with gross ETE, level IV metastasis is superior in predicting level V metastasis.

Ultrasound Elastic Parameters Predict Central Lymph Node Metastasis of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to explore the new factors that can predict central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) independently from ultrasound characteristics, elastic parameters, and endocrine indicators.

METHODS

A total of 391 patients with PTC undergoing thyroidectomy and prophylactic central lymph node dissection from January 2017 to June 2019 were collected to determine the independent predictors of CLNM by single-factor and multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed 9 independent predictors of CLNM, age, male, tumors in the middle or lower poles (without tumors in the isthmus), tumors in the isthmus, multiple tumors, and maximum tumor diameter measured by ultrasound, microcalcification, visible surrounding blood flow signal, and the maximum value of elastic modulus (Emax).We used the aforementioned factors to establish a scoring prediction model: predictive score Y(P) = 1/[1 + exp (1.444 + 0.084 ∗ age - 0.834 ∗ men - 0.73 ∗ multifocality - 2.718 ∗ tumors in the isthmus - 0.954 ∗ tumors in the middle or lower poles - 0.086 ∗ tumor maximum diameter - 1.070 ∗ microcalcification - 0.892 ∗ visible surrounding blood flow signal - 0.021 ∗ Emax)]. The area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic was 0.827. It was found that 0.524 was the highest index of Youden, and the best cutoff value for predicting CLNM. When Y(P)≥0.524, the risk of CLNM in patients with PTC is predicted to be high. Predictive accuracy was 78.5% and 72.4% in the internal validation group and 78.6% in the external validation group.

CONCLUSIONS

These data indicate that the scoring prediction model could provide a scientific and quantitative way to predict CLNM in patients with PTC.

Clinical and Ultrasonic Risk Factors for Lateral Lymph Node Metastasis in Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Clinical and ultrasonic risk factors for lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) are not well-defined. Herein, a systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to investigate clinicopathologic and ultrasonic risk features for LLNM in PTMC.

Methods: A systematic search of electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science) for studies published until April 2019 was performed. Case–control studies and randomized controlled trials that studied clinical and ultrasonic risk factors of LLNM in PTMC were included.

Results: Fourteen studies (all retrospective studies) involving 43,750 patients met final inclusion criteria. From the pooled analyses, younger age<45 (OR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.16–2.07; P = 0.003), male patients (OR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.55–2.42; P < 0.00), extrathyroidal extension (OR, 3.63; 95% CI, 2.28–5.77; P <0.00), tumor multifocality (OR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.53–3.28; P <0.00), tumor > 0.5 cm (OR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.53–3.28; P < 0.00), central lymph node metastasis (OR, 5.61; 95% CI, 4.64–6.79; P < 0.00), >25% tumor contact with thyroid capsule (OR, 6.66; 95% CI, 1.96–22.65; P = 0.002), tumor calcification (OR, 2.90; 95% CI, 1.71–4.93; P < 0.00), upper tumor (OR, 3.18; 95% CI, 2.23–4.55; P < 0.00) were significantly associated with increased risk of LLNM in PTMC, while Hashimoto's thyroiditis and other ultrasonic features (solid tumor, hypoechoic tumor, smooth margin, and taller than wide tumor) were not significantly associated with LLNM in PTMC.

Conclusions: Our analysis identified several clinicopathologic and ultrasonic factors associated with LLNM in PTMC. This finding highlights the need for a cautious and frequent postoperative surveillance of the lateral neck in high-risk PTMC patients. Moreover, high-risk ultrasonic features also need to be considered during selection of PTMC for active surveillance.

Development and validation of a nomogram for preoperative prediction of cervical lymph node involvement in thyroid microcarcinoma

Cervical regional lymph node involvement (CRLNI) is common in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC), but the way to deal with cervical lymph node involvement of clinically negative PTMC is controversial. We studied data of patients histologically confirmed PTMC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program and Department of Surgical Oncology in Hangzhou First People's Hospital (China). We screened 6 variables of demographic and clinicopathological characteristics as potential predictors and further constructed a lymph node involvement model based on the independent predictors including age, race, sex, extension, multifocality and tumor size. The model was validated by both the internal and the external testing sets, and the visual expression of the model was displayed by a nomogram. As a result, the C-index of this predictive model in the training set was 0.766, and the internal and external testing sets through cross-validation were 0.753 and 0.668, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.766 for the training set. We also performed a Decision Curve Analysis (DCA), which showed that predicting the cervical lymph node involvement risk applying this nomogram would be better than having all patients or none patients use this nomogram.

Risk Factors of Metastatic Lymph Nodes in Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) usually has an indolent course, but some have worse prognostic factors, such as the presence of central (6.9%-51.5%) and lateral (3%-49.6%) lymph node metastases. The aim of this study is to analyze the factors associated with PTMC with metastatic lymph nodes and its long-term prognosis.

METHODS

Retrospective study whose study population consists of patients with PTMC (size ≤1cm). Patients with previous thyroid surgery, other synchronous malignancies and ectopic location of the PTMC were excluded. Two groups were compared: PTMC without metastatic lymph nodes (group 1) and PTMC with metastatic lymph nodes (group 2). A multivariate analysis using a logistic regression model and a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis with log-rank test were performed.

RESULTS

Out of the 161 selected patients, 9.3% (n=15) had metastatic lymph nodes. Multifocality (OR 5.284, 95%CI 1.056-26.443; P=.043) and extrathyroidal extension (OR 7.687, 95%CI 1.405-42.050; P=.019) were associated with the presence of metastatic lymph nodes. In PTMC with metastatic lymph nodes, more aggressive treatments were performed: lymphadenectomy (4.8% vs. 100%; P<.001) and radioactive iodine (24.7% vs. 100%; P<.001). During a mean follow-up of 119.8±65 months, one recurrence was detected in group 2 (0% vs. 6.7%; P=.093). No patients died due to the disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Multifocality and extrathyroidal extension of PTMC were associated with the presence of metastatic lymph nodes. Metastatic PTMC, with more aggressive treatments, presents an excellent long-term prognosis.

A meta-analysis evaluating the relationship between B-type Raf kinase mutation and cervical lymphatic metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer

BACKGROUND

B-type Raf kinase (BRAF) mutation is proved to be a critical predictive factor in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) with aggressive characteristics. However, the association between BRAF mutation and cervical lymphatic metastasis in PTC is controversial.

METHODS

We searched papers on the study of BRAF mutation and cervical lymphatic metastasis in PTC patients through PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochranelibrary. The BRAF (+) cases, BRAF (-) cases, and cervical lymphphatic metastatic cases in both BRAF (+) and BRAF (-) groups were collected. After Quality assessment, statistical Analysis (funnel plot and Harbord evaluation, Random-effect model, heterogeneity, subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysis, and metacum analysis) were done by the Review Manager (RevMan) 5.3 and stata14 statistical software.

RESULTS

There were 78 cross-section studies which met our inclusion criteria. And all of them had no selection bias, publication bias, or any other bias. A significant association existed between BRAF mutation and cervical lymph node metastasis (LNM) (odds ratio [OR] = 1.63; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.44-1.84; P < .05). Overall, 46 studies were conducted among East Asians. Twenty four articles had provided the data of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM), 11 articles with the data of lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM), and classic/conventional PTC (CPTC) was analyzed in 10 studies. Subgroup analyses were performed based on ethnicity, metastatic site, and subtype of PTC. Significant association between BRAF (+) mutation and cervical LNM were indicated in East Asians (OR = 1.73; 95% CI: 1.49-2.02; P < .05), in non-East Asians (OR = 1.57; 95% CI: 1.26-1.96; P < .05), and in CLNM (OR = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.56-2.07; P < .05). While no significant association was found in LLNM (OR = 1.37; 95% CI: 0.76-2.48; P = .29 > .05) and in CPTC (OR = 1.32; 95% CI: 0.97-1.80; P = .08 > .05). We did not find any other major changes when sensitivity analysis was performed. The metacum analysis showed no significant association existed before 2012. While a significant association began to exist between BRAF mutation and LNM from 2012, and this association became stable from 2017.

CONCLUSIONS

We consider that a significant association exists between BRAF mutation and cervical LNM. Further meta-analysis on subgroup may reveal some valuable factors between BRAF gene mutation and LNM. And we do not recommend that BRAF (+) as the biomarker for LNM in PTC.

Machine Learning Algorithms for the Prediction of Central Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients With Papillary Thyroid Cancer

BACKGROUND

Central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) occurs frequently in patients with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC), but performing prophylactic central lymph node dissection is still controversial. There are no reliable models for predicting CLNM. This study aimed to develop predictive models for CLNM by machine learning (ML) algorithms.

METHODS

Patients with PTC who underwent initial thyroid resection at our hospital between January 2018 and December 2019 were enrolled. A total of 22 variables, including clinical characteristics and ultrasonography (US) features, were used for conventional univariate and multivariate analysis and to construct ML-based models. A 5-fold cross validation strategy was used for validation and a feature selection approach was applied to identify risk factors.

RESULTS

The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 7 models ranged from 0.680 to 0.731. All models performed significantly better than US (AUC=0.623) in predicting CLNM (P<0.05). In decision curve, most of the models also performed better than US. The gradient boosting decision tree model with 7 variables was identified as the best model because of its best performance in both ROC (AUC=0.731) and decision curves. Based on multivariate analysis and feature selection, young age, male sex, low serum thyroid peroxidase antibody and US features such as suspected lymph nodes, microcalcification and tumor size > 1.1 cm were the most contributing predictors for CLNM.

CONCLUSIONS

It is feasible to develop predictive models of CLNM in PTC patients by incorporating clinical characteristics and US features. The ML algorithm may be a useful tool for the prediction of lymph node metastasis in thyroid cancer.

Individualized Prediction Of Metastatic Involvement Of Lymph Nodes Posterior To The Right Recurrent Laryngeal Nerve In Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Purpose

We aimed to establish a prediction model based on preoperative clinicopathologic features and intraoperative frozen section examination for precise prediction of metastatic involvement of lymph nodes posterior to the right recurrent laryngeal nerve (LN-prRLN) in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).

Methods

Clinicopathologic data pertaining to patients with PTC who underwent initial thyroid surgery between July 2015 and December 2017 were collected from electronic medical records. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of LN-prRLN metastasis for incorporation in the nomogram. The performance of the model was assessed using discriminative ability, calibration, and clinical application.

Results

A total of 592 patients were enrolled in this study. The LN-prRLN metastatic positivity was 19% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.61–21.89%). On multivariate analysis, ultrasonography-reported LN status, extrathyroid extension, Delphian lymph node metastasis, and number of metastatic pretracheal and paratracheal lymph nodes were independent predictors of LN-prRLN metastasis. The nomogram showed good discriminative ability (C-index: 0.87; [95% CI, 0.84–0.91]; bias-corrected C-index: 0.86 [through bootstrapping validation]) and was well calibrated. The decision curve analysis indicated potential clinical usefulness of the nomogram.

Conclusion

This study demonstrates that the risk of LN-prRLN metastasis in individual patients can be robustly predicted by a nomogram that integrates readily available preoperative clinicopathologic features and intraoperative frozen section examination. The nomogram may facilitate intraoperative decision-making for patients with PTC.

Risk factors for neck hematoma requiring surgical re-intervention after thyroidectomy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to determine the risk factors associated with neck hematoma requiring surgical re-intervention after thyroidectomy.

METHODS

We systematically searched all articles available in the literature published in PubMed and CNKI databases through May 30, 2017. The quality of these articles was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale, and data were extracted for classification and analysis by focusing on articles related with neck hematoma requiring surgical re-intervention after thyroidectomy. Our meta-analysis was performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses guidelines.

RESULTS

Of the 1028 screened articles, 26 met the inclusion criteria and were finally analyzed. The factors associated with a high risk of neck hematoma requiring surgical re-intervention after thyroidectomy included male gender (odds ratio [OR]: 1.86, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.60-2.17, P < 0.00001), age (MD: 4.92, 95% CI: 4.28-5.56, P < 0.00001), Graves disease (OR: 1.81, 95% CI: 1.60-2.05, P < 0.00001), hypertension (OR: 2.27, 95% CI: 1.43-3.60, P = 0.0005), antithrombotic drug use (OR: 1.92, 95% CI: 1.51-2.44, P < 0.00001), thyroid procedure in low-volume hospitals (OR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.12-1.57, P = 0.001), prior thyroid surgery (OR: 1.93, 95% CI: 1.11-3.37, P = 0.02), bilateral thyroidectomy (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.09-1.30, P < 0.0001), and neck dissection (OR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.23-1.94, P = 0.0002). Smoking status (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 0.99-1.42, P = 0.06), malignant tumors (OR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.83-1.20, P = 0.97), and drainage used (OR: 2.02, 95% CI: 0.69-5.89, P = 0.20) were not significantly associated with postoperative neck hematoma.

CONCLUSION

We identified certain risk factors for neck hematoma requiring surgical re-intervention after thyroidectomy, including male gender, age, Graves disease, hypertension, antithrombotic agent use, history of thyroid procedures in low-volume hospitals, previous thyroid surgery, bilateral thyroidectomy, and neck dissection. Appropriate intervention measures based on these risk factors may reduce the incidence of postoperative hematoma and yield greater benefits for the patients.

Risk factor analysis for predicting cervical lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma: a study of 966 patients

Backgrounds

The aim of this study is to investigate the risk factors for the cervical lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).

Methods

The clinicopathological data from the 966 PTC patients who underwent thyroid operation between January 2013 and December 2015 in the general surgery department of Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University were collected. The risk factors of predicting cervical lymph node metastasis were analyzed.

Results

Male, age ≤ 45 years old, tumor size> 1.0 cm, extrathyroidal extension (ETE), US features as microcalcification, were independent risk factors for central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) (P < 0.05). Only CLNM was independent risk factors for lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) (P < 0.05). The ROC curve showed that the cutoff value of the number of CLNM for predicting lateral lymph node metastasis was defined as 2.5 (Sensitivity = 0.535, Specificity = 0.722, AUC = 0.669, P < 0.05). When the number of CLNM > 3, OR value was significantly higher, suggesting that the risk of LLNM increased significantly. The incidence of LLNM in level III (66.8%) and level IV (67.3%) were significantly higher than level II (42.2%) and level V (21.3%) (P < 0.05). The incidence of LLNM and skip metastasis in tumor located in the upper 1/3 of the lobe was the highest (P < 0.05).

Conclusions

Prophylactic central lymph node dissection should be performed in patients with risk factors as male, age ≤ 45 years old, tumor size> 1.0 cm, ETE and US features as microcalcification. Lateral lymph node dissection (LLND) should be more actively performed in patients with the number of CLNM> 3. Extent of LLND should include levels II, III, IV and V. Tumor located in the upper 1/3 of the lobe was vulnerable for LLNM and skip metastasis, so lymph node in lateral compartment should be noticed when lymph node status was preoperatively evaluated by imaging examination.

Evaluation of MEDAG gene expression in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: associations with histological features, regional lymph node metastasis and prognosis

Papillary thyroid microcarcinoma accounts for a large proportion of papillary thyroid carcinoma, especially among new cases. Many  PTMC patients have regional lymph node metastasis, with some experiencing recurrence and even death. However, the risk factors and mechanism by which PTMC relates to these factors are unknown. In this study, differentially expressed genes were identified with microarray from The Cancer Genome Atlas, followed by analysis using the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes. Immunohistochemistry, immunofluorescence, western blot and Oil Red O staining were carried out to evaluate expression levels and functional alterations. Mesenteric Estrogen Dependent Adipogenesis expression was observed in almost all cases of papillary thyroid microcarcinomas, and the location of expression was associated with histological subtype. High expression was correlated with metastasis and poor disease-free survival. Furthermore, the enrichment analysis indicated that Mesenteric Estrogen Dependent Adipogenesis expression may be associated with metabolic reprogramming to influence metastasis and prognosis. These findings contribute to a better understanding of how Mesenteric Estrogen Dependent Adipogenesis affects metastasis and the prognosis of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma patients and suggest that Mesenteric Estrogen Dependent Adipogenesis expression may be a novel prognostic marker in these patients. 

Risk factors for skip metastasis and lateral lymph node metastasis of papillary thyroid cancer

BACKGROUND

Lymph node metastases from papillary thyroid cancer is believed to disseminate sequentially, first to the central neck and later to the lateral neck. Skip metastases of papillary thyroid cancer, however, are defined as lateral lymph node metastasis without central lymph node metastasis. The aim of this study was to investigate the risk factors for skip metastases and lateral lymph node metastasis of papillary thyroid cancer.

METHODS

We reviewed 721 papillary thyroid cancer patients undergoing total thyroidectomy with central lymph node dissection and lateral lymph node dissection during 2013 to 2018. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify clinicopathologic risk factors for skip metastasis and lateral lymph node metastasis of papillary thyroid cancer.

RESULTS

The rate of skip metastases was 7.4% (42 of 567 patients). Multivariate analysis showed that female sex and papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (≤ 1 cm) were independent risk factors for skip metastases, with odds ratios ([OR], 95% confidence interval [CI]) of 2.29 (1.02-5.16) and 2.84 (1.46-5.16), respectively. Intrathyroidal spread of papillary thyroid cancer and an increased number of central lymph nodes dissected were inversely associated with skip metastases with ORs (95% CI) of 0.13 (0.02-0.99) and 0.88 (0.83-0.94), respectively. In contrast, a greater tumor size, central lymph node metastasis, an increased number of central lymph nodes dissected, and an increased number of lateral lymph nodes dissected were associated with a lateral lymph node metastasis risk of papillary thyroid cancer, with ORs (95% CI) as follow: 1.67 (1.08-2.59), 3.07 (1.71-5.52), 1.25 (1.14-1.37), and 1.07 (1.04-1.10), respectively, by multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

Greater tumor size, central lymph node metastasis, and an increased number of both central lymph nodes and lateral lymph nodes dissected were predictors for lateral lymph node metastasis of papillary thyroid cancer. In addition, papillary thyroid microcarcinoma was an independent risk factor for skip metastases. A complete and comprehensive central compartment dissection may decrease the false-positive detection of skip metastases of papillary thyroid cancer.

Routine Lateral Level V Dissection May Not Be Necessary for Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma With Lateral Lymph Node Metastasis: A Retrospective Study of 252 Cases

Background: Lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) is associated with distant metastasis, locoregional recurrence and cancer-specific mortality, although the prevalence of LLNM among patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is relatively low. The potential benefits and risks of routine lateral level V dissection (LVD) for PTMC with LLNM have not been previously investigated. Methods: A total of 6,880 consecutive PTMC patients who underwent initial surgery at the First Hospital of Jilin University from January 2009 to July 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. A total of 252 N1b PTMC patients were enrolled in our study. Results: The overall and occult metastasis rates in level V lymph nodes were 21.4 and 6.4%, respectively. Patients with N1b PTMC who received LVD did not show a significantly lower disease-free survival (DFS) than that of patients who did not receive LVD [hazard ratio = 1.11 (CI 0.38-3.21); p = 0.85]. Meanwhile, LVD simultaneously increased the hospital stay and cost (p = 0.03; 0.02). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that 3-level simultaneous metastasis in the lateral neck was an independent risk factor for level V metastasis [odds ratio = 8.6 (CI 1.42-51.72); p = 0.02]. Conclusions: Because of the low metastasis rate in level V lymph nodes, the lack of benefit for recurrence, the longer hospital stay and the higher cost associated with LVD, N1b PTMC patients without clinical level V metastasis may not need to undergo routine dissection. Prophylactic LVD may be recommended only for patients with N1b PTMC with 3-level simultaneous metastasis.

Clinical-pathological Characteristics and Prognostic Factors for Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma in the Elderly

Background: The incidence of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) has increased dramatically over the past three decades worldwide. The annual rate of increase in the elderly (≥65) PTMC patients is 1.4 times higher than that in the adult (<65) PTMC patients. The aim of the present study is to identify the clinical-pathological characteristics and prognostic factors in the elderly PTMC patients.

Methods: The source population is PTMC patients whose information is available in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database (2004-2013). We analyzed specific selected clinical-pathological parameters and prognostic factors for the PTMC patients who were aged 65 or above (N=4812).

Results: Within the elderly group, the male patients, in comparison to the females, had a higher percentage of lymph-node metastases (5.29% vs. 12.27%, P < 0.001), distant metastasis (0.27% vs. 1.07%, P < 0.001), and stage III-IV tumors (9.19% vs. 15.85%, P < 0.001). Moreover, the elderly patients had a lower median cause-specific survival (CSS) compared with the adult patients (P < 0.001). Stage III-IV disease (hazard ratio (HR): 8.064, P < 0.001) was a strong risk factor for PTMC CSS. Being female (HR: 0.440, P = 0.011), total thyroidectomy (HR: 0.057, P = 0.001), and lobectomy (HR: 0.058, P < 0.001) were all strong protectors of PTMC CSS.

Conclusion: Thyroidectomy improved CSS of the elderly PTMC patients. Compared with thyroid lobectomy, total thyroidectomy did not increase CSS for the elderly PTMC patients. The elderly PTMC patients who received radio therapy did not experience an increase in CSS.

MiR-324-5p assists ultrasonography in predicting lymph node metastasis of unifocal papillary thyroid microcarcinoma without extracapsular spread

Ultrasonography is the first choice of lymph node metastasis (LNM) detection which is crucial for therapeutic options of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). However, the sensitivity of ultrasonography in detecting LNM of PTC is relatively low; especially in central LNM. MiR-324-5p has been reported to play important roles in the metastasis of various cancers. To explore the relationship between miR-324-5p and LNM in PTC, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction was performed in PTC tissue and fine needle aspiration (FNA) washout successively. Its correlation with LNM of PTC was analyzed. The clinicopathological and sonographic factors relating to LNM were also studied. Additionally, the function assay of miR-324-5p in PTC cells was conducted. Current study demonstrated that age was an independent protective factor and multifocality, advanced TNM stage, increased transverse diameter of thyroid nodule, ultrasound suspected LNM were independent risk factors of LNM. MiR-324-5p promoted proliferation, migration and invasion of PTC cell line. MiR-324-5p could serve as a candidate predictor along with ultrasonography in predicting LNM, especially central LNM of unifocal papillary thyroid microcarcinoma without extracapsular spread.

Risk factors for post-thyroidectomy haemorrhage: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Post-thyroidectomy haemorrhage is a rare but potentially life-threatening and unpredictable complication of thyroid surgery. In this study, we analysed the potential risk factors for the occurrence of post-thyroidectomy haemorrhage.

METHODS

The PubMed and SCIE databases were comprehensively searched for studies published before June 30, 2016. Studies on patients who underwent an open thyroidectomy with or without neck dissection were included, and RevMan 5.3 software was used to analyse the data.

RESULTS

Twenty-five studies and 424 563 patients were included in this meta-analysis, and post-thyroidectomy haemorrhage occurred in 6277 patients (incidence rate = 1.48%). The following variables were associated with an increased risk of post-thyroidectomy haemorrhage: older age (MD = 4.30, 95% CI = 3.09-5.52, P < 0.00001), male sex (OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.54-1.94, P < 0.00001), Graves' disease (OR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.44-2.15, P < 0.00001), antithrombotic agents use (OR = 1.96, 95% CI 1.55-2.49, P < 0.00001), bilateral operation (OR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.50-1.96, P < 0.00001), neck dissection (OR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.11-2.11, P = 0.01) and previous thyroid surgery (OR = 1.62, 95% CI = 1.12-2.34, P = 0.01). Malignant tumours (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 0.89-1.28, P = 0.46) and drainage device use (OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 0.74-2.18, P = 0.4) were not associated with post-thyroidectomy haemorrhage.

CONCLUSION

Our systematic review identified a number of risk factors for post-thyroidectomy haemorrhage, including older age, male sex, Graves' disease, antithrombotic agents use, bilateral operation, neck dissection and previous thyroid surgery. Early control of modifiable risk factors could improve patient outcomes and satisfaction.