Risk Factors for Postoperative Rebleeding and Short-Term Prognosis of Spontaneous Cerebellar Hemorrhage

The predictive role of the nomogram based on clinical characteristics and thromboelastography markers for rebleeding after hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage

Objectives

Rebleeding after hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage is a common and serious postoperative complication in neurosurgery, with high mortality and mental disability rates. The aim of this study was to establish a nomogram to analyze the role of thromboelastography in predicting rebleeding after hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage.

Basic methods

We selected 375 patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage who underwent surgical treatment in Yuebei People's Hospital of Shaoguan City, Guangdong Province from May 2018 to August 2022, and retrospectively analyzed the relevant data of hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage patients (including general data and clinical thromboelastography data), and analyzed the factors and thromboelastography parameters that affect rebleeding after surgery (45 cases, defined as re-examination of head CT within 72 h after surgery showed that the hematoma in the surgical area exceeded 20 ml).

Main results

Time from symptom onset to surgery, taking antiplatelet drugs, taking anticoagulant drugs, diabetes mellitus, difficulty in hemostasis during surgery, R value and EPL value in thromboelastography were risk factors for rebleeding after hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage (P < 0.05). Logistic regression was used to determine the independent risk factors, and based on these risk factors, a nomogram was established and internally validated using a bootstrap method. ROC curve analysis showed that the nomogram model had high diagnostic value for rebleeding after hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage, with AUC of 0.7314. The calibration curve of the nomogram showed good consistency between the predicted probabilities and the observed values. The decision curve analysis and clinical impact curve also revealed the potential clinical usefulness of the nomogram.

Conclusions

The nomogram based on clinical characteristics and thromboelastography markers may be useful for predicting rebleeding after hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage.

A decision tree model to help treatment decision-making for severe spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

Surgical treatment demonstrated a reduction in mortality among patients suffering from severe spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (SSICH). However, which SSICH patients could benefit from surgical treatment was unclear. This study aimed to establish and validate a decision tree (DT) model to help determine which SSICH patients could benefit from surgical treatment.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

SSICH patients from a prospective, multicenter cohort study were analyzed retrospectively. The primary outcome was the incidence of neurological poor outcome (modified Rankin scale as 4-6) on the 180th day posthemorrhage. Then, surgically-treated SSICH patients were set as the derivation cohort (from a referring hospital) and validation cohort (from multiple hospitals). A DT model to evaluate the risk of 180-day poor outcome was developed within the derivation cohort and validated within the validation cohort. The performance of clinicians in identifying patients with poor outcome before and after the help of the DT model was compared using the area under curve (AUC).

RESULTS

One thousand two hundred sixty SSICH patients were included in this study (middle age as 56, and 984 male patients). Surgically-treated patients had a lower incidence of 180-day poor outcome compared to conservatively-treated patients (147/794 vs. 128/466, P <0.001). Based on 794 surgically-treated patients, multivariate logistic analysis revealed the ischemic cerebro-cardiovascular disease history, renal dysfunction, dual antiplatelet therapy, hematoma volume, and Glasgow coma score at admission as poor outcome factors. The DT model, incorporating these above factors, was highly predictive of 180-day poor outcome within the derivation cohort (AUC, 0.94) and validation cohort (AUC, 0.92). Within 794 surgically-treated patients, the DT improved junior clinicians' performance to identify patients at risk for poor outcomes (AUC from 0.81 to 0.89, P <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided a DT model for predicting the poor outcome of SSICH patients postsurgically, which may serve as a useful tool assisting clinicians in treatment decision-making for SSICH.

Predictive Nomogram for Unfavorable Outcome of Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage

BACKGROUND

The goal of this retrospective study was to evaluate the effect of surgical timing on patient outcomes after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We also identified risk factors associated with poor prognosis.

METHODS

We reviewed all patients who underwent surgery for ICH between January 2014 and January 2021. The outcome was measured using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 6 months after the surgery. Patients with mRS 0-2 were considered having favorable outcomes, and those with mRS 3-5 were considered having unfavorable outcomes. The relationships of surgical timing with the risk of unfavorable outcomes were identified using the interaction and stratified analyses, and generalized additive and logistic regression models. A nomogram was established and evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, plotted decision curve, and calibration curve.

RESULTS

We identified 53 patients with favorable outcomes and 144 with unfavorable outcomes. The number of cases who underwent surgery at >12 hours and <36 hours in the favorable outcome group was more than that in the unfavorable outcome group (P < 0.001). When the time to operating room (TOR) was less than 21 hours, a shorter TOR was associated with unfavorable outcomes, using the smoothing spline analysis (odds ratio = 0.8, P < 0.001). Finally, we developed a nomogram using systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale, midline shift, hematoma volume, and TOR for predicting the unfavorable outcome. The area under the curve, accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity of nomogram were 0.90, 0.87, 0.72, and 0.93, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Surgical timing between 12 and 26 hours after ICH was associated with favorable outcomes. The nomogram including systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale, midline shift, hematoma volume, and TOR was reliable for predicting the ICH outcome.