Biomarkers and the prediction of atrial fibrillation: state of the art

Early Detection of Atrial Fibrillation in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an important medical problem, as it significantly affects patients' quality of life and prognosis. AF often complicates the course of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a widespread disease with heavy economic and social burdens. A growing body of evidence suggests multiple links between COPD and AF. This review considers the common pathogenetic mechanisms (chronic hypoxia, persistent inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and myocardial remodeling) of these diseases and describes the main risk factors for the development of AF in patients with COPD. The most effective models based on clinical, laboratory, and functional indices are also described, which enable the identification of patients suffering from COPD with a high risk of AF development. Thus, AF in COPD patients is a frequent problem, and the search for new tools to identify patients at a high risk of AF among COPD patients remains an urgent medical problem.

Predictive value of soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 in atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Purpose

Atrial fibrosis is the main pathological basis for the pathogenesis and progression of atrial fibrillation (AF). Soluble suppression of tumorigenicity 2 (sST2) is involved in fibrosis. Recent studies have explored its predictive value in AF outcomes. We performed this study to assess whether sST2 is an independent biomarker of AF outcomes and explore the potential mechanism.

Methods

PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases were searched systematically from inception through July 1, 2023, to identify relevant studies. Outcomes of interest included occurrence, recurrence, and major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) of AF. This meta-analysis was reported following the criteria outlined in PRISMA 2020, and the protocol was registered in PROSPERO (number: CRD42023459789). All statistical analyses were performed using the STATA version 16.

Result

Twenty four studies with 14,755 patients were included in the meta-analysis. The meta-analyses found that sST2 was significantly associated with the risk of occurrence [HR:1.04, 95% CI: 1.02-1.07, P < 0.01; I2 = 67.8%], recurrence [HR:1.09, 95% CI: 1.02-1.16, P < 0.01; I2 = 89.5%], and MACEs (HR:1.60, 95% CI: 1.13-2.27, P < 0.01; I2 = 82.0%) of AF. Furthermore, patients with AF showed higher sST2 than controls without AF (SMD: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.27-0.54, P < 0.01; I2 = 0%), and AF patients with recurrence after catheter ablation (CA) showed significantly higher sST2 than those without recurrence (SMD: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.33-1.28, P < 0.01; I2 = 83.9%). Sensitivity analyses showed that the outcomes were stable.

Conclusions

Higher sST2 was association with an increased risk of occurrence, recurrence, and MACEs of AF. Assessing sST2 can be used as a potential screening method to predict AF outcomes.

Systematic Review Registration

PROSPERO (CRD42023459789).

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Biomarkers for Risk Prediction in Atrial Fibrillation

RATIONALE

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of thromboembolism. This risk is currently assessed with scoring systems based on clinical characteristics. However, these tools have limited prognostic performance. Circulating biomarkers are proposed for improved prediction of major clinical events and individualization of treatments in patients with AF.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to assess the cost-effectiveness of precision medicine (PM), i.e., the use of combined biomarkers and clinical variables, in comparison to standard of care (SOC) for risk stratification in a hypothetical cohort of AF patients at risk of stroke.

METHODS

A Markov cohort model was developed to evaluate the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of PM compared to SOC, over 20 years using a Canadian healthcare system perspective.

RESULTS

PM decreased the mean per-patient overall costs by 7% ($94,932 vs $102,057 [Canadian dollars], respectively) and increased the QALYs by 12% (8.77 vs 7.68 QALYs, respectively). The calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was negative, indicating that PM is an economically dominant strategy. These results were robust to one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

PM compared to SOC is economically dominant and is projected to generate cost savings.

Higher coronary artery calcium score is associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation recurrence after catheter ablation

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery calcium score (CACS) is associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) development, but scarce data are available regarding the impact on AF recurrence. This study aims to assess the impact of CACS on AF recurrence following catheter ablation.

METHODS

Retrospective study of patients with AF undergoing cardiac computed tomography (CCT) before ablation (2017-2019). Patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), significant valvular heart disease and previous catheter ablation were excluded. A cut-off of CACS ≥ 100 was used according to literature.

RESULTS

A total of 311 patients were included (median age 57 [48, 64] years, 65% men and 21% with persistent AF). More than half of the patients had a CACS > 0 (52%) and 18% a CACS ≥ 100. Patients with CACS ≥ 100 were older (64 [59, 69] vs 55 [46, 63] years, p ​< ​0.001), had more frequently hypertension (68% vs 42%, p ​< ​0.001) and diabetes mellitus (21% vs 10%, p ​= ​0.020). During a median follow-up of 34 months (12-57 months), 98 patients (32%) had AF recurrence. CACS ≥ 100 was associated with increased risk of AF recurrence (unadjusted Cox regression: hazard ratio [HR] 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-3.1, p ​= ​0.002). After covariate adjustment, CACS ≥ 100 and persistent AF remained independent predictors of AF recurrence (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.0-2.8, p ​= ​0.039 and HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3-3.2, p ​= ​0.004, respectively).

CONCLUSION

An opportunistic evaluation of CACS could be an important tool to improve clinical care considering that CACS ≥ 100 was independently associated with a 69% increase in the risk of AF recurrence after first catheter ablation.

A Differential Profile of Biomarkers between Patients with Atrial Fibrillation and Healthy Controls

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is explained by anatomical and electrophysiological changes in the atria determined by high pressure, dilatation, infiltration and inflammation in the myocardium. There are some biomarkers implicated in these processes, namely, NT-proBNP, high sensitivity troponin (Hs-Tn), urate, galectin-3, ST2, C reactive protein and fibrinogen. The aim of this study was to assess differences in these biomarkers between patients with AF and healthy controls. We designed a cross-sectional study consecutively including all patients undergoing electrical cardioversion in our hospital for persistent AF and matched healthy controls. We included 115 patients with persistent non-valvular AF and 33 healthy subjects. The biomarkers NT-proBNP, ST2 and Hs-Tn T were significantly related to the presence of AF (1054 ± 833.30 vs. 58.31 ± 59.40, p < 0.001; 35.43 ± 15.89 vs. 27.43 ± 10.95, p < 0.001 and 10.25 ± 6.11 vs. 8.42 ± 6.85, p < 0.001, respectively). NT-proBNP was the best biomarker differentiating AF patients (area under the curve 0.995). The best NT-proBNP cut-off point to differentiate AF was 102 pg/mL; for Hs-Tn T it was 11.5 ng/L and for ST2 it was 37.7 ng/mL. It is possible that these biomarkers intervene at the onset of AF and have no role in AF maintenance.

Relationship between serum growth differentiation factor 15, fibroblast growth factor-23 and risk of atrial fibrillation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background and objective

Growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) and fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23) are considered predictors of the incidence of cardiovascular diseases. The present meta-analysis aimed to elucidate the associations between GDF-15 and FGF-23 in the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF).

Methods

An electronic search was conducted in the Cochrane Library, PubMed, and Embase databases from inception until February 27, 2021. The study protocol was registered in the PROSPERO database (CRD42020182226).

Results

In total, 15 studies that enrolled 36,017 participants were included. Both serum FGF-23 and GDF-15 were elevated in patients with AF. Analysis of categorical variables showed higher serum FGF-23 levels were associated with an increased risk of AF [relative risk (RR) = 1.28, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05–1.56]. In contrast, this association was not found with GDF-15 (RR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.20–4.04). In dose-response analysis, a linear positive association was noted between serum FGF-23 levels and the risk of AF (P nonlinear = 0.9507), with a RR elevation of 7% for every 20 pg/ml increase in the serum FGF-23 levels (95% CI: 1.02–1.13). No remarkable relationship was found between serum GDF-15 levels and the risk of AF, and the overall RR for the association between a 100 ng/L increment in GDF-15 levels and AF was 1.01 (95% CI: 0.998–1.02).

Conclusion

Our study showed a positive linear correlation between serum FGF-23 levels and the risk of AF. However, no significant association was found between GDF-15 and the risk of AF. Further studies are warranted to clarify whether serum FGF-23 levels may be considered in predicting the risk of AF.

Systematic Review Registration:http:www.york.ac.uk/inst/crd, identifier CRD42020182226.

The Atrium in Atrial Fibrillation - A Clinical Review on How to Manage Atrial Fibrotic Substrates

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia in the population and is associated with a significant clinical and economic burden. Rigorous assessment of the presence and degree of an atrial arrhythmic substrate is essential for determining treatment options, predicting long-term success after catheter ablation, and as a substrate critical in the pathophysiology of atrial thrombogenesis. Catheter ablation of AF has developed into an essential rhythm-control strategy. Nowadays is one of the most common cardiac ablation procedures performed worldwide, with its success inversely related to the extent of atrial structural disease. Although atrial substrate evaluation remains complex, several diagnostic resources allow for a more comprehensive assessment and quantification of the extent of left atrial structural remodeling and the presence of atrial fibrosis. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge on the pathophysiology, etiology, and electrophysiological aspects of atrial substrates promoting the development of AF. We also describe the risk factors for its development and how to diagnose its presence using imaging, electrocardiograms, and electroanatomic voltage mapping. Finally, we discuss recent data regarding fibrosis biomarkers that could help diagnose atrial fibrotic substrates.

Association Between Apelin and Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With High Risk of Ischemic Stroke

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with high risk of stroke preventable by timely initiation of anticoagulation. Currently available screening tools based on ECG are not optimal due to inconvenience and high costs. Aim of this study was to study the diagnostic value of apelin for AF in patients with high risk of stroke.

Methods: We designed a multicenter, matched-cohort study. The population consisted of three study groups: a healthy control group (34 patients) and two matched groups of 60 patients with high risk of stroke (AF and non-AF group). Apelin levels were examined from peripheral blood.

Results: Apelin was significantly lower in AF group compared to non-AF group (0.694 ± 0.148 vs. 0.975 ± 0.458 ng/ml, p = 0.001) and control group (0.982 ± 0.060 ng/ml, p < 0.001), respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of apelin as a predictor of AF scored area under the curve (AUC) of 0.658. Apelin's concentration of 0.969 [ng/ml] had sensitivity = 0.966 and specificity = 0.467. Logistic regression based on manual feature selection showed that only apelin and NT-proBNP were independent predictors of AF. Logistic regression based on selection from bivariate analysis showed that only apelin was an independent predictor of AF. A logistic regression model using repeated stratified K-Fold cross-validation strategy scored an AUC of 0.725 ± 0.131.

Conclusions: Our results suggest that apelin might be used to rule out AF in patients with high risk of stroke.

Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation Using Machine Learning: A Review

There has been recent immense interest in the use of machine learning techniques in the prediction and screening of atrial fibrillation, a common rhythm disorder present with significant clinical implications primarily related to the risk of ischemic cerebrovascular events and heart failure. Prior to the advent of the application of artificial intelligence in clinical medicine, previous studies have enumerated multiple clinical risk factors that can predict the development of atrial fibrillation. These clinical parameters include previous diagnoses, laboratory data (e.g., cardiac and inflammatory biomarkers, etc.), imaging data (e.g., cardiac computed tomography, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, echocardiography, etc.), and electrophysiological data. These data are readily available in the electronic health record and can be automatically queried by artificial intelligence algorithms. With the modern computational capabilities afforded by technological advancements in computing and artificial intelligence, we present the current state of machine learning methodologies in the prediction and screening of atrial fibrillation as well as the implications and future direction of this rapidly evolving field.

SERS liquid biopsy: An emerging tool for medical diagnosis

Surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) is emerging as a novel strategy for biofluid analysis. In this review, we delineate four experimental SERS protocols that are frequently used for the profiling of biofluids: 1) liquid SERS for the detection of purine metabolites; 2) iodide-modified liquid SERS for the detection of proteins; 3) dried SERS for the detection of both purine metabolites and proteins; 4) resonant Raman for the detection of carotenoids. To explain the selectivity of each experimental SERS protocol, we introduce a heuristic model for the chemisorption of analytes mediated by adsorbed ions (adions) onto the SERS substrate. Next, we show that the promising results of SERS liquid biopsy stem from the fact that the concentration levels of purine metabolites, proteins and carotenoids are informative of the cellular turnover rate, inflammation, and oxidative stress, respectively. These processes are perturbed in virtually every disease, from cancer to autoimmune maladies. Finally, we review recent SERS liquid biopsy studies and discuss future steps that are required for translating SERS in the clinical setting.

A Review on the State of the Art in Atrial Fibrillation Detection Enabled by Machine Learning

Atrial Fibrillation (AF) the most commonly occurring type of cardiac arrhythmia is one of the main causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The timely diagnosis of AF is an equally important and challenging task because of its asymptomatic and episodic nature. In this paper, state-of-the-art ECG data-based machine learning models and signal processing techniques applied for auto diagnosis of AF are reviewed. Moreover, key biomarkers of AF on ECG and the common methods and equipment used for the collection of ECG data are discussed. Besides that, the modern wearable and implantable ECG sensing technologies used for gathering AF data are presented briefly. In the end, key challenges associated with the development of auto diagnosis solutions of AF are also highlighted. This is the first review paper of its kind that comprehensively presents a discussion on all these aspects related to AF auto-diagnosis in one place. It is observed that there is a dire need for low energy and low cost but accurate auto diagnosis solutions for the proactive management of AF.

Dynamics of Atrial Fibrillation Mechanisms and Comorbidities

Atrial fibrillation (AF) contributes to morbidity and mortality of millions of individuals. Its molecular, cellular, neurohumoral, and hemodynamic pathophysiological mechanisms are complex, and there is increasing awareness that a wide range of comorbidities can contribute to AF-promoting atrial remodeling. Moreover, recent research has highlighted that AF risk is not constant and that the temporal variation in concomitant conditions contributes to the complexity of AF dynamics. In this review, we provide an overview of fundamental AF mechanisms related to established and emerging comorbidities or risk factors and their role in the AF-promoting effects. We focus on the accumulating evidence for the relevance of temporally dynamic changes in these risk factors and the consequence for AF initiation and maintenance. Finally, we highlight the important implications for future research and clinical practice resulting from the dynamic interaction between AF risk factors and mechanisms.

P-Wave Area Predicts New Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Mitral Stenosis: A Machine Learning Approach

Introduction: Mitral stenosis is associated with an atrial cardiomyopathic process, leading to abnormal atrial electrophysiology, manifesting as prolonged P-wave duration (PWD), larger P-wave area, increased P-wave dispersion (PWD_max—PWD_min), and/or higher P-wave terminal force on lead V1 (PTFV1) on the electrocardiogram.

Methods: This was a single-center retrospective study of Chinese patients, diagnosed with mitral stenosis in sinus rhythm at baseline, between November 2009 and October 2016. Automated ECG measurements from raw data were determined. The primary outcome was incident atrial fibrillation (AF).

Results: A total 59 mitral stenosis patients were included (age 59 [54–65] years, 13 (22%) males). New onset AF was observed in 27 patients. Age (odds ratio [OR]: 1.08 [1.01–1.16], P = 0.017), systolic blood pressure (OR: 1.03 [1.00–1.07]; P = 0.046), mean P-wave area in V3 (odds ratio: 3.97 [1.32–11.96], P = 0.014) were significant predictors of incident AF. On multivariate analysis, age (OR: 1.08 [1.00–1.16], P = 0.037) and P-wave area in V3 (OR: 3.64 [1.10–12.00], P = 0.034) remained significant predictors of AF. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that the optimum cut-off for P-wave area in V3 was 1.45 Ashman units (area under the curve: 0.65) for classification of new onset AF. A decision tree learning model with individual and non-linear interaction variables with age achieved the best performance for outcome prediction (accuracy = 0.84, precision = 0.84, recall = 0.83, F-measure = 0.84).

Conclusion: Atrial electrophysiological alterations in mitral stenosis can detected on the electrocardiogram. Age, systolic blood pressure, and P-wave area in V3 predicted new onset AF. A decision tree learning model significantly improved outcome prediction.

[Catheter treat-ment of patients with atrial fibrillation and myocardial inflammation]

The review presents current data on atrial fibrillation, therapeutic approaches, and possibilities of interventional treatment and addresses inflammatory heart damage and its interrelation with arrhythmia.The review presents current data on atrial fibrillation, therapeutic approaches, and possibilities of interventional treatment and addresses inflammatory heart damage and its interrelation with arrhythmia.

Red blood cell distribution width: A marker of anisocytosis potentially associated with atrial fibrillation

The incorporation of biomarkers in the actually used risk scores seem to be helpful for early identifying atrial fibrillation (AF) patients at higher risk. The aim of this critical review of the scientific literature is to investigate the potential clinical significance of red blood cell distribution width (RDW) in AF. A systematic electronic search was carried out to identify all articles describing an epidemiological association between RDW and AF in adult human populations. Data abstraction was conducted on a final number of 35 articles (13 cross-sectional, 12 prospective and 10 retrospective studies). The results of these epidemiological investigations were all virtually concordant to emphasize that an enhanced RDW value is not only a predictive factor and a marker of AF but its measurement may also be helpful for predicting the risk of developing many adverse complications in patients with AF, such as recurrence and duration of AF, hospitalization for heart failure, bleeding, left atrial thrombosis and stasis, thromboembolic events and mortality. AF patients with RDW values exceeding the local reference range may be more aggressively investigated and managed, in order to identify and attenuate the impact of possible underlying disorders causing both anisocytosis and AF.

Biomarkers in Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia encountered in clinical practice and an important contributor to cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Although the exact mechanisms behind AF are not completely elucidated, the underlying pathophysiological changes have been well described. Predisposal factors for AF include the older age, the increased left atrial size, the decreased left atrial function, the presence of heart failure and left ventricular systolic dysfunction and the presence of coronary heart disease or pulmonary or mitral valve disease. In addition to these factors, emerging evidence demonstrate that myocardial strain, fibrosis and inflammation, are associated with AF as well as the pathogenesis of the arrhythmia. The natruretic peptide system including Atrial Natriuretic Peptide (ANP), Brain Natriuretic Peptide (BNP) and C-type Natriuretic Peptide (CNP) is indicative of the level of myocardial strain which may predispose to AF. As a result, the aforementioned peptides are increased in AF patients. The levels of myocardial fibrosis biomarkers, such as ST2 and Galectin-3, are elevated suggesting atrial structural abnormalities, while the increased levels of CRP and Interleukin-6 supplement the inflammatory profile of AF patients. Emerging data for the aforementioned biomarkers are discussed in the present review.

Biomarker Profiling in Stage 5 Chronic Kidney Disease Identifies the Relationship between Angiopoietin-2 and Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is prevalent in nearly 27% of patients with stage 5 chronic kidney disease on hemodialysis (CKD5-HD), suggesting a strong association between these 2 pathologies. It is hypothesized that the relationship between these 2 diseases may be mediated by inflammation. Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2), a pro-inflammatory biomarker of endothelial instability, inflammation, and vascular remodeling, is elevated in CKD5-HD and AF, yet has not been evaluated in patients with concomitant AF and CKD5-HD. The aim of this study is to analyze circulating levels of inflammatory and thrombotic biomarkers in patients with concomitant AF and CKD5-HD. Plasma levels of Ang-2 were measured via sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay method in CKD5-HD patients (n = 96), patients with AF (n = 38), and controls (n = 50). Angiopoietin-2 was markedly elevated in CKD5-HD with comorbid AF as compared to CKD5-HD alone, and AF alone, respectively (13.05 ± 1.56 vs 9.57 ± 0.71 ng/mL; P = .00169; vs 2.48 ± 0.57 ng/mL; P < .0001). The results of this study suggest an additive effect of Ang-2 with coexistence of AF and CKD5-HD, which may be useful in the detection of AF within this patient population.

Diabetes mellitus and atrial remodelling in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: Role of electroanatomical mapping and catheter ablation

Complex fractionated atrial electrograms (CFAEs) are related to atrial fibrosis, but their ablation has not yet shown superiority. The aim of the study was to compare, in terms of clinical outcome, two strategies of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM): pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) vs. PVI + CFAEs. Compared to an historical population of patient with paroxysmal AF and without DM, a higher percentage of patients with DM showed more than 25% of atrial area interested by CFAEs (study population, 58% vs historical group, 15%; p < 0.05). In PVI group, recurrences rate was similar in patients with HbA1c ⩽ 7.5% vs HbA1c > 7.5% (30% vs 22%; p = not significant), but a greater AF burden was observed in patients with HbA1c > 7.5% (6 ± 2 vs 1 ± 2; p < 0.05). In hazard ratios analysis PVI+CFAEs seems more effective than PVI alone in patients with HbA1c > 7.5% (hazard ratio, 1.28; p < 0.05), more than 25 years from DM diagnosis (hazard ratio, 1.25; p < 0.05) and more than five AF episodes/year (hazard ratio, 1.2; p < 0.05). Type 1 DM patients had complex atrial 'substrate', as documented by wider CFAEs areas. Despite this, 1-year follow-up recurrence rate was similar between two ablation approaches (PVI 27% vs. PVI+CFAEs 21%; p = not significant). In our study, only specific subgroups, like patients with disglycaemic state (HbA1c > 7.5%), long diabetes mellitus history and high AF burden, benefit from PVI+ CFAEs approach.

Association between left atrial phasic conduit function and early atrial fibrillation recurrence in patients undergoing electrical cardioversion

Background

Diastolic dysfunction promotes atrial fibrillation (AF) inducing left atrial (LA) remodeling, with chamber dilation and fibrosis. Predominance of LA phasic conduit (LAC) function should reflect not only chamber alterations but also underlying left ventricular (LV) filling impairment. Thus, LAC was tested as possible predictor of early AF relapse after electrical cardioversion (EC).

Methods

96 consecutive patients, who underwent EC for persistent non-valvular AF, were prospectively enrolled. Immediately after successful EC (3 h ± 15 min), an echocardiographic apical four-chamber view was acquired with transmitral velocities, annular tissue Doppler and simultaneous LV and LA three-dimensional full-volume datasets. Then, from LA–LV volumetric curves we computed LAC as: [(LV maximum − LV minimum) − (LA maximum − LA minimum) volume], expressed as % LV stroke volume. LA pump, immediately post-EC, was assumed and verified as being negligible. Sinus rhythm persistence at 1 month was checked with ECG-Holter monitoring.

Results

At 1 month 62 patients were in sinus rhythm and 34 in AF. AF patients presented pre-EC higher E/é values (p = 0.012), no major LA volume differences (p = NS), but a stiffer LV cavity (p = 0.012) for a comparable LV capacitance (p = 0.461). Conduit contributed more (p < 0.001) to LV stroke volume in AF subpopulation. Multiple regression revealed LAC as the most significant AF predictor (p = 0.013), even after correction for biometric characteristics and pharmacotherapy (p = 0.008).

Conclusion

Our data suggest that LAC larger contribution to LV filling soon after EC reflects LA–LV stiffening, which skews atrioventricular interaction leading to AF perpetuation and makes conduit dominance a powerful predictor of early AF recurrence.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00392-017-1188-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.