Hedayat KM, Chalvet D, Yang M, Golshan S, Allix-Beguec C, Beneteaud S, Schmit T. Evolution of Modeled Cortisol Is Prognostic of Death in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 Syndrome.
Front Med (Lausanne) 2022;
9:912678. [PMID:
35733873 PMCID:
PMC9208295 DOI:
10.3389/fmed.2022.912678]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2022] [Accepted: 05/02/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction
Patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 have an elevated risk of mortality related to a severe inflammatory response. We hypothesized that biological modeling with a complete blood count (CBC) would be predictive of mortality.
Method
In 2020, 81 patients were randomly selected from La Rochelle Hospital, France for a simple blinded retrospective study. Demographic, vital signs, CBC and CRP were obtained on admission, at days 2-3 and 3-5. From a CBC, two biological modeling indexes were resulted: the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and cortisol index adjusted (CA).
Results
By ANOVA, in survivors vs. non-survivors there was statistical different at p < 0.01 for age (66.2 vs. 80), CRP (92 vs. 179 mg/dL, normal < 10), cortisol index adjusted (323 vs. 698, normal 3-7) and genito-thyroid indexes (7.5 vs. 18.2, normal 1.5–2.5), and at p = 0.02 creatinine (1.03 vs. 1.48, normal 0.73–1.8 mg/dL). By mixed model analysis, CA and NLR improved in those who survived across all three time points, but worsened again after 3–5 days in non-survivors. CRP continued to improve over time in survivors and non-survivors. Positive vs. Negative predictive value were: CRP (91.1%, 30.4%), NLR (94.5%, 22.7%), CA (100%, 0%).
Discussion
Cortisol modeling and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were more accurate in describing the course of non-survivors than CRP.
Conclusion
In patients admitted for SARS CoV-2 infection, biological modeling with a CBC predicted risk of death better than CRP. This approach is inexpensive and easily repeated.
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