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Wade MJ, Lo Jacomo A, Armenise E, Brown MR, Bunce JT, Cameron GJ, Fang Z, Farkas K, Gilpin DF, Graham DW, Grimsley JMS, Hart A, Hoffmann T, Jackson KJ, Jones DL, Lilley CJ, McGrath JW, McKinley JM, McSparron C, Nejad BF, Morvan M, Quintela-Baluja M, Roberts AMI, Singer AC, Souque C, Speight VL, Sweetapple C, Walker D, Watts G, Weightman A, Kasprzyk-Hordern B. Understanding and managing uncertainty and variability for wastewater monitoring beyond the pandemic: Lessons learned from the United Kingdom national COVID-19 surveillance programmes. JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS 2022; 424:127456. [PMID: 34655869 PMCID: PMC8498793 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.127456] [Citation(s) in RCA: 92] [Impact Index Per Article: 46.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2021] [Revised: 09/23/2021] [Accepted: 10/05/2021] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has put unprecedented pressure on public health resources around the world. From adversity, opportunities have arisen to measure the state and dynamics of human disease at a scale not seen before. In the United Kingdom, the evidence that wastewater could be used to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 virus prompted the development of National wastewater surveillance programmes. The scale and pace of this work has proven to be unique in monitoring of virus dynamics at a national level, demonstrating the importance of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for public health protection. Beyond COVID-19, it can provide additional value for monitoring and informing on a range of biological and chemical markers of human health. A discussion of measurement uncertainty associated with surveillance of wastewater, focusing on lessons-learned from the UK programmes monitoring COVID-19 is presented, showing that sources of uncertainty impacting measurement quality and interpretation of data for public health decision-making, are varied and complex. While some factors remain poorly understood, we present approaches taken by the UK programmes to manage and mitigate the more tractable sources of uncertainty. This work provides a platform to integrate uncertainty management into WBE activities as part of global One Health initiatives beyond the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew J Wade
- UK Health Security Agency, Environmental Monitoring for Health Protection, Windsor House, Victoria Street, London SW1H 0TL, UK; Newcastle University, School of Engineering, Cassie Building, Newcastle-upon-Tyne NE1 7RU, UK.
| | - Anna Lo Jacomo
- UK Health Security Agency, Environmental Monitoring for Health Protection, Windsor House, Victoria Street, London SW1H 0TL, UK; Bristol University, Department of Engineering Mathematics, Bristol BS8 1TW, UK
| | - Elena Armenise
- Environment Agency, Research, Horizon House, Deanery Road, Bristol BS1 5AH, UK
| | - Mathew R Brown
- UK Health Security Agency, Environmental Monitoring for Health Protection, Windsor House, Victoria Street, London SW1H 0TL, UK; Newcastle University, School of Engineering, Cassie Building, Newcastle-upon-Tyne NE1 7RU, UK
| | - Joshua T Bunce
- UK Health Security Agency, Environmental Monitoring for Health Protection, Windsor House, Victoria Street, London SW1H 0TL, UK; Newcastle University, School of Engineering, Cassie Building, Newcastle-upon-Tyne NE1 7RU, UK; Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Seacole Building, 2 Marsham Street, London SW1P 4DF, UK
| | - Graeme J Cameron
- Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Strathallan House, Stirling FK9 4TZ, UK
| | - Zhou Fang
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, James Clerk Maxwell Building, Peter Guthrie Tait Road, Edinburgh EH9 3FD, UK
| | - Kata Farkas
- Bangor University, School of Natural Sciences, Deiniol Road, Bangor LL57 2UW, UK
| | - Deidre F Gilpin
- Queen's University Belfast, School of Pharmacy, Lisburn Road, Belfast BT9 7BL, UK
| | - David W Graham
- Newcastle University, School of Engineering, Cassie Building, Newcastle-upon-Tyne NE1 7RU, UK
| | - Jasmine M S Grimsley
- UK Health Security Agency, Environmental Monitoring for Health Protection, Windsor House, Victoria Street, London SW1H 0TL, UK
| | - Alwyn Hart
- Environment Agency, Research, Horizon House, Deanery Road, Bristol BS1 5AH, UK
| | - Till Hoffmann
- UK Health Security Agency, Environmental Monitoring for Health Protection, Windsor House, Victoria Street, London SW1H 0TL, UK; Imperial College London, Department of Mathematics, London SW7 2AZ, UK
| | - Katherine J Jackson
- Environment Agency, Research, Horizon House, Deanery Road, Bristol BS1 5AH, UK
| | - David L Jones
- Bangor University, School of Natural Sciences, Deiniol Road, Bangor LL57 2UW, UK; The University of Western Australia, UWA School of Agriculture and Environment, Perth, WA 6009, Australia
| | - Chris J Lilley
- UK Health Security Agency, Environmental Monitoring for Health Protection, Windsor House, Victoria Street, London SW1H 0TL, UK
| | - John W McGrath
- Queen's University Belfast, School of Biological Sciences, Chlorine Gardens, Belfast BT9 5DL, UK
| | - Jennifer M McKinley
- Queen's University Belfast, School of Natural and Built Environment, Stranmills Road, Belfast BT9 5AG, UK
| | - Cormac McSparron
- Queen's University Belfast, School of Natural and Built Environment, Stranmills Road, Belfast BT9 5AG, UK
| | - Behnam F Nejad
- Queen's University Belfast, School of Natural and Built Environment, Stranmills Road, Belfast BT9 5AG, UK
| | - Mario Morvan
- UK Health Security Agency, Environmental Monitoring for Health Protection, Windsor House, Victoria Street, London SW1H 0TL, UK; University College London, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Marcos Quintela-Baluja
- Newcastle University, School of Engineering, Cassie Building, Newcastle-upon-Tyne NE1 7RU, UK
| | - Adrian M I Roberts
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, James Clerk Maxwell Building, Peter Guthrie Tait Road, Edinburgh EH9 3FD, UK
| | - Andrew C Singer
- UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK
| | - Célia Souque
- UK Health Security Agency, Environmental Monitoring for Health Protection, Windsor House, Victoria Street, London SW1H 0TL, UK; University of Oxford, Department of Zoology, Mansfield Road, Oxford OX1 3SZ, UK
| | - Vanessa L Speight
- University of Sheffield, Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Mappin Street, Sheffield S1 3JD, UK
| | - Chris Sweetapple
- UK Health Security Agency, Environmental Monitoring for Health Protection, Windsor House, Victoria Street, London SW1H 0TL, UK; University of Exeter, Centre for Water Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
| | - David Walker
- Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Barrack Road, Weymouth DT4 8UB, UK
| | - Glenn Watts
- Environment Agency, Research, Horizon House, Deanery Road, Bristol BS1 5AH, UK
| | - Andrew Weightman
- Cardiff University, Cardiff School of Biosciences, The Sir Martin Evans Building, Museum Avenue, Cardiff CF10 3AX, UK
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