Automatic model calibration of combined hydrologic, hydraulic and stormwater quality models using approximate Bayesian computation

Bayesian-based calibration for water quality model parameters

To improve the efficiency and accuracy of water quality model parameter calibration and avoid local optima and the phenomenon in which different parameters have the same effect, this paper proposed a novel Bayesian-based water quality model parameter calibration method. Using Bayesian inference, the parameter calibration problem was converted into a posterior probability function sampling problem, which was sampled using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The convergence speed of the calibration was further improved by setting the optimized initial sampling value. The influences of the initial sampling value, Markov chain length, and proposal distribution form on the calibration effect were evaluated using four specific cases. The results indicate that (1) the mean relative error (MRE) of the parameter calibration results of this method is less than 10%, with the calibration MRE of Dx and Dy being 5.3% and 8.3%, respectively; (2) when the parameter sensitivity is low, the calibration effect of this method is relatively poor, with a calibration MRE of 46% for k; (3) the parameter calibration can be completed more efficiently by setting an optimized initial value for the MCMC, choosing a reasonable Markov chain length and a suitable proposal distribution form. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Bayesian-based water quality model parameter calibration method is proposed and posterior probability distribution was sampled using the MCMC algorithm. Parameter calibration can be completed more efficiently by setting an optimized initial value for the MCMC. As a result, efficient and accurate parameter calibration of water quality models was achieved. This method is widely applicable to various models, and the calibration speed depends on the calculation speed of the model.

Pattern-based assessment of the influence of rainfall characteristics on urban stormwater quality

Urbanisation increases pollutant generation within catchments and their transport to receiving waters. Changes to rainfall patterns, particularly in the age of climate change, make pollution mitigation a challenging task. Understanding how rainfall characteristics could influence the changes to stormwater pollutant runoff is important for designing effective mitigation strategies. This study employed a pattern-based assessment of relationships between rainfall characteristics and stormwater quality in urban catchments to develop this understanding. The research outcomes showed that rainfall events could be distinctly clustered based on intensity and duration, and each cluster of events would produce different stormwater quality responses. The high-intensity bursts occurring in the latter part of long-duration events were found to produce uniform and low concentrations of suspended solids. One the contrary, high intensity bursts occurring in the initial part of short-duration events triggered the first-flush effect, thus producing high concentrations of suspended solids. Furthermore, the first-flush effect was likely to present when the high intensity bursts occurred in the mid portion of rainfall events and produced variable concentrations of suspended solids. It was also found that the average rainfall intensity plays a key role in mobilising and transporting pollutants accumulated on urban surfaces.