Validation of a prediction rule for prognosis of severe community-acquired pneumonia

A new method to predict hospital mortality in severe community acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The aim of this study is to develop a new method that is able to accurately predict the 28day hospital mortality in patients with severe community acquired pneumonia (SCAP) at an early stage.

METHODS

We selected 37,348 SCAP patients in ICU from 173 hospitals during 2011.1-2013.12. The predictive factors for 28day hospital mortality were evaluated retrospectively. All cases underwent intensive care, blood routine, blood biochemical tests and arterial blood gas analysis. Under the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, a new clinical scoring system was developed for early prediction in SCAP patients. The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to calculate the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

A novel clinical model named CLCGH scoring system, including Serum creatinine (Cr) >259.5μmol/L, leukocyte (WBC)>17.35×10⁹/L, C-reactive protein (CRP)>189.4μg/mL, GCS≤9 and serum HCO₃^-≤17.65mmol/L, was carried out and each index was an independent factor for hospital mortality in SCAP. In validation cohort, the AUC of the new scoring system was 0.889 for prediction of hospital mortality, which was similar to SOFA score 0.877, APACHEII score 0.864, and was better than the PSI score 0.761 and CURB-65 score 0.767.

CONCLUSIONS

The new scoring system CLCGH is an efficient, accurate and objective method to predicate the early hospital mortality among SCAP patients.

The prognostic value of muscle regional oxygen saturation index in severe community-acquired pneumonia: a prospective observational study

Background

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) mortality exceeds 20 % in critical care patients despite appropriate antibiotic therapy. Regional tissue oxygen saturation index (rSO2) measured with near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) might facilitate early detection for patients at risk of serious complications. Our objectives were to determine the relationship between early determination of rSO2 and mortality and to compare discrimination power for mortality of rSO2 and other resuscitation variables in critically ill CAP patients.

Methods

This is a prospective observational study. Patients with CAP were enrolled within 6 h to intensive care admission. Demographics and clinical variables were recorded. rSO2 was determined using NIRS in brachioradialis muscle. All variables were determined at baseline and 24 h after admission.

Results

Forty patients were enrolled. Fourteen patients (35 %) had a baseline rSO2 < 60 % and 7 of them died (50 %). Only 1 of 26 (3.8 %) patients with rSO2 ≥ 60 % died (p = 0.007). The area under ROC curve (AUROC) showed consistent mortality discrimination at baseline (0.84, p = 0.03) and at 24 h (0.86, p = 0.006) for rSO2 values. Cox regression analysis showed that “low” rSO2 at ICU admission (hazard ratio (HR) = 8.99; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.05–76.8; p = 0.045) and “low” rSO2 at 24 h (HR = 13.18; 95 % CI 1.52–113.6; p = 0.019) were variables independently associated with mortality. In contrast, other variables such as Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score (HR = 1.09; 95 % CI 0.99–1.19; p = 0.052) were not associated with mortality.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that forearm skeletal muscle rSO2 differs in patients with severe CAP according to outcome and might be an early prognosis tool.