Increasing differential mortality by educational attainment in adults in the United States

Association of Neighborhood Conditions and Resources for Children With Life Expectancy at Birth in the US

Importance

To address inequities in life expectancy, we must understand the associations of modifiable socioeconomic and structural factors with life expectancy. However, the association of limited neighborhood resources and deleterious physical conditions with life expectancy is not well understood.

Objective

To evaluate the association of community social and economic conditions and resources for children with life expectancy at birth.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study examined neighborhood child opportunity and life expectancy using data from residents of 65 662 US Census tracts in 2015. The analysis was conducted from July 6 to October 1, 2021.

Exposures

Neighborhood conditions and resources for children in 2015.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was life expectancy at birth at the Census tract level based on data from the US Small-Area Life Expectancy Estimates Project (January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2015). Neighborhood conditions and resources for children were quantified by Census tract Child Opportunity Index (COI) 2.0 scores for 2015. This index captures community conditions associated with children's health and long-term outcomes categorized into 5 levels, from very low to very high opportunity. It includes 29 indicators in 3 domains: education, health and environment, and social and economic factors. Mixed-effects and simple linear regression models were used to estimate the associations between standardized COI scores (composite and domain-specific) and life expectancy.

Results

The study included residents from 65 662 of 73 057 US Census tracts (89.9%). Life expectancy at birth across Census tracts ranged from 56.3 years to 93.6 years (mean [SD], 78.2 [4.0] years). Life expectancy in Census tracts with very low COI scores was lower than life expectancy in Census tracts with very high COI scores (-7.06 years [95% CI, -7.13 to -6.99 years]). Stepwise associations were observed between COI scores and life expectancy. For each domain, life expectancy was shortest in Census tracts with very low compared with very high COI scores (education: β = -2.02 years [95% CI, -2.12 to -1.92 years]); health and environment: β = -2.30 years [95% CI, -2.41 to -2.20 years]; social and economic: β = -4.16 years [95% CI, -4.26 to -4.06 years]). The models accounted for 41% to 54% of variability in life expectancy at birth (R2 = 0.41-0.54).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, neighborhood conditions and resources for children were significantly associated with life expectancy at birth, accounting for substantial variability in life expectancy at the Census tract level. These findings suggest that community resources and conditions are important targets for antipoverty interventions and policies to improve life expectancy and address health inequities.

Declining Life Expectancy in the United States: Missing the Trees for the Forest

In recent years, life expectancy in the United States has stagnated, followed by three consecutive years of decline. The decline is small in absolute terms but is unprecedented and has generated considerable research interest and theorizing about potential causes. Recent trends show that the decline has affected nearly all race/ethnic and gender groups, and the proximate causes of the decline are increases in opioid overdose deaths, suicide, homicide, and Alzheimer's disease. A slowdown in the long-term decline in mortality from cardiovascular diseases has also prevented life expectancy from improving further. Although a popular explanation for the decline is the cumulative decline in living standards across generations, recent trends suggest that distinct mechanisms for specific causes of death are more plausible explanations. Interventions to stem the increase in overdose deaths, reduce access to mechanisms that contribute to violent deaths, and decrease cardiovascular risk over the life course are urgently needed to improve mortality in the United States.

Quantifying and explaining variation in life expectancy at census tract, county, and state levels in the United States

Studies on geographic inequalities in life expectancy in the United States have exclusively focused on single-level analyses of aggregated data at state or county level. This study develops a multilevel perspective to understanding variation in life expectancy by simultaneously modeling the geographic variation at the levels of census tracts (CTs), counties, and states. We analyzed data from 65,662 CTs, nested within 3,020 counties and 48 states (plus District of Columbia). The dependent variable was age-specific life expectancy observed in each of the CTs. We also considered the following CT-level socioeconomic and demographic characteristics as independent variables: population density; proportions of population who are black, who are single parents, who are below the federal poverty line, and who are aged 25 or older who have a bachelor's degree or higher; and median household income. Of the total geographic variation in life expectancy at birth, 70.4% of the variation was attributed to CTs, followed by 19.0% for states and 10.7% for counties. The relative importance of CTs was greater for life expectancy at older ages (70.4 to 96.8%). The CT-level independent variables explained 5 to 76.6% of between-state variation, 11.1 to 58.6% of between-county variation, and 0.7 to 44.9% of between-CT variation in life expectancy across different age groups. Our findings indicate that population inequalities in longevity in the United States are primarily a local phenomenon. There is a need for greater precision and targeting of local geographies in public policy discourse aimed at reducing health inequalities in the United States.

Period and cohort-specific trends in life expectancy at different ages: Analysis of survival in high-income countries

The number of older adults is increasing in high-income countries as survival chances continue to improve. We investigate changes in survival at older ages in high-income countries and show that although survival chances have improved, these improvements are concentrated at the top of the survival distribution where there is a small share of the population. Among females who survive to age 85 in the most recently birth cohort (1925), for example, about half die within 8 years while those in the top 25% of the survival distribution live at least 50% longer (12 years or more). Importantly, these results indicate that having some individuals reach exceptionally old age does not imply that the majority of the population is living longer. In addition, estimates of lifespan inequality at older ages suggests that years of life lost because of death have increased in recent times and among recently born cohorts leading to an increase uncertainty in the age at death at older ages. Thus, slow survival improvements at ages 65+ suggest that most of the population is unlikely to reach long life expectancies in the near future, which may lead to lower than expected fraction of adults reaching older ages.

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There has been an increasing number of older adults in high-income countries as survival chances continue to improve.

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We document large survival inequalities over time and across birth cohorts particularly at older ages.

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The age at death in the top 10% of the distribution increased faster than in the bottom 25% over time and across cohorts.

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Slow survival improvements at older ages suggest most people are not reaching life expectancy of 100 years in the near future.

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Survival inequalities highlight persistent disparities by socioeconomic status and health behaviors across the life course.

Purpose in Life and Hospitalization for Ambulatory Care-Sensitive Conditions in Old Age

OBJECTIVE

To test the hypothesis that higher level of purpose in life is associated with lower subsequent odds of hospitalization.

DESIGN

Longitudinal cohort study.

SETTING

Participants' residences in the Chicago metropolitan area.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 805 older persons who completed uniform annual clinical evaluations.

MEASUREMENTS

Participants annually completed a standard self-report measure of purpose in life, a component of well-being. Hospitalization data were obtained from Part A Medicare claims records. Based on previous research, ICD-9 codes were used to identify ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs) for which hospitalization is potentially preventable. The relation of purpose (baseline and follow-up) to hospitalization was assessed in proportional odds mixed models.

RESULTS

During a mean of 4.5 years of observation, there was a total of 2,043 hospitalizations (442 with a primary ACSC diagnosis; 1,322 with a secondary ACSC diagnosis; 279 with no ACSCs). In initial analyses, higher purpose at baseline and follow-up were each associated with lower odds of more hospitalizations involving ACSCs but not hospitalizations for non-ACSCs. Results were comparable when those with low cognitive function at baseline were excluded. Adjustment for chronic medical conditions and socioeconomic status reduced but did not eliminate the association of purpose with hospitalizations involving ACSCs.

CONCLUSIONS

In old age, higher level of purpose in life is associated with lower odds of subsequent hospitalizations for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions.

Population health in an era of rising income inequality: USA, 1980-2015

Income inequality in the USA has increased over the past four decades. Socioeconomic gaps in survival have also increased. Life expectancy has risen among middle-income and high-income Americans whereas it has stagnated among poor Americans and even declined in some demographic groups. Although the increase in income inequality since 1980 has been driven largely by soaring top incomes, the widening of survival inequalities has occurred lower in the distribution-ie, between the poor and upper-middle class. Growing survival gaps across income percentiles since 2001 reflect falling real incomes among poor Americans as well as an increasingly strong association between low income and poor health. Changes in individual risk factors such as smoking, obesity, and substance abuse play a part but do not fully explain the steeper gradient. Distal factors correlated with rising inequality including unequal access to technological innovations, increased geographical segregation by income, reduced economic mobility, mass incarceration, and increased exposure to the costs of medical care might have reduced access to salutary determinants of health among low-income Americans. Having missed out on decades of income growth and longevity gains, low-income Americans are increasingly left behind. Without interventions to decouple income and health, or to reduce inequalities in income, we might see the emergence of a 21st century health-poverty trap and the further widening and hardening of socioeconomic inequalities in health.

Changes in social inequalities in disability-free life expectancy in Southern Europe: the case of the Basque Country

BACKGROUND

Health expectancy is a useful tool to monitor health inequalities. The evidence about the recent changes in social inequalities in healthy expectancy is relatively scarce and inconclusive, and most studies have focused on Anglo-Saxon and central or northern European countries. The objective of this study was to analyse the changes in socioeconomic inequalities in disability-free life expectancy in a Southern European population, the Basque Country, during the first decade of the 21st century.

METHODS

This was an ecological cross-sectional study of temporal trends on the Basque population in 1999-2003 and 2004-2008. All-cause mortality rate, life expectancy, prevalence of disability and disability free-life expectancy were calculated for each period according to the deprivation level of the area of residence. The slope index of inequality and the relative index of inequality were calculated to summarize and compare the inequalities in the two periods.

RESULTS

Disability free-life expectancy decreased as area deprivation increased both in men and in women. The difference between the most extreme groups in 2004-2008 was 6.7 years in men and 3.7 in women. Between 1999-2003 and 2004-2008, socioeconomic inequalities in life expectancy decreased, and inequalities in disability-free expectancy increased in men and decreased in women.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found important socioeconomic inequalities in health expectancy in the Basque Country. These inequalities increased in men and decreased in women in the first decade of the 21st century, during which the Basque Country saw considerable economic growth.

Widening educational disparities in premature death rates in twenty six states in the United States, 1993-2007

BACKGROUND

Eliminating socioeconomic disparities in health is an overarching goal of the U.S. Healthy People decennial initiatives. We present recent trends in mortality by education among working-aged populations.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Age-standardized death rates and their average annual percent change for all-cause and five major causes (cancer, heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and accidents) were calculated from 1993 through 2007 for individuals aged 25-64 years by educational attainment as a marker of socioeconomic status, using national vital registration data for 26 states with consistent educational information on the death certificates. Rate ratios and rate differences were used to assess disparities (≤12 versus ≥16 years of education) for 1993 through 2007. From 1993 through 2007, relative educational disparities in all-cause mortality continued to increase among working-aged men and women in the U.S., due to larger decreases of mortality rates among the most educated coupled with smaller decreases or even worsening trends in the less educated. For example, the rate ratios of all-cause mortality increased from 2.5 (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.4-2.6) in 1993 to 3.6 (95% CI, 3.5-3.7) in 2007 in men and from 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) to 3.0 (95% CI, 2.9-3.1) in women. Generally, the rate differences (per 100,000 persons) of all-cause mortality increased from 415.5 (95% CI, 399.1-431.9) in 1993 to 472.7 (95% CI, 460.2-485.2) in 2007 in men and from 165.4 (95% CI, 154.5-176.2) to 256.2 (95% CI, 248.3-264.2) in women. Disparity patterns varied largely across the five specific causes considered in this study, with the largest increases of relative disparities for accidents, especially in women.

CONCLUSIONS

Relative educational differentials in mortality continued to widen among men and women despite emphasis on reducing disparities in the U.S. Healthy People decennial initiatives.

Differential survival in Europe and the United States: estimates based on subjective probabilities of survival

Cross-country comparisons of differential survival by socioeconomic status (SES) are useful in many domains. Yet, to date, such studies have been rare. Reliably estimating differential survival in a single country has been challenging because it requires rich panel data with a large sample size. Cross-country estimates have proven even more difficult because the measures of SES need to be comparable internationally. We present an alternative method for acquiring information on differential survival by SES. Rather than using observations of actual survival, we relate individuals' subjective probabilities of survival to SES variables in cross section. To show that subjective survival probabilities are informative proxies for actual survival when estimating differential survival, we compare estimates of differential survival based on actual survival with estimates based on subjective probabilities of survival for the same sample. The results are remarkably similar. We then use this approach to compare differential survival by SES for 10 European countries and the United States. Wealthier people have higher survival probabilities than those who are less wealthy, but the strength of the association differs across countries. Nations with a smaller gradient appear to be Belgium, France, and Italy, while the United States, England, and Sweden appear to have a larger gradient.

Evolution of inequalities in mortality in Salvador, Bahia State, Brazil, 1991/2006

An ecological study was carried out with the aim of analyzing the evolution of inequalities in mortality in Salvador, Bahia State, Brazil, between 1991 and 2006. The city was divided into four social strata from 95 geographic Information Zones. The variables used for social stratification were education level and income of heads of households. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates, age specific mortality rates, proportional Infant mortality and the proportional mortality ratio, were calculated for each zone and social strata. Data was obtained from Death Certificates and the Populational Census. Although differences between strata were smaller in 2000 than in 1991, they persist and are still high, ranging from 28.7% to 65.5%. The differences between Information Zones were as much as 575%. The authors discuss the shortcomings of information systems, recommending that health indicators should be estimated by social classes and pointing out the limits and possibilities of the methodology used here.

Racial/ethnic disparities in all-cause mortality in U.S. adults: the effect of allostatic load

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the association between a cumulative biological risk or allostatic score and all-cause mortality risk. We used 13,715 records of participants aged 25 years and older from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) linked to the National Death Index.

METHODS

We specified all-cause mortality using the underlying cause of death in the death certificate. We calculated time to death from interview date through December 31, 2000, as person-years of follow-up using the NHANES III interview month and year. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) relating all-cause mortality risk for those with an allostatic score of 2 and > or = 3 relative to those with an allostatic score of < or = 1.

RESULTS

After controlling for age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, and income, mortality rates were 40% (HR = 1.40, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11, 1.76) and 88% (HR = 1.88, 95% CI 1.56, 2.26) higher for participants with an allostatic score of 2 and > or = 3, respectively, compared with those with a score of < or = 1. The death rate associated with allostatic score for each racial/ethnic group differed with age.

CONCLUSIONS

The allostatic score increased the risk of all-cause mortality. Moreover, this increased risk was observed for adults younger than 65 years of age regardless of their race/ethnicity. Thus, allostatic score may be a contributor to premature death in the U.S.

Rising mortality and life expectancy differentials by lifetime earnings in the United States

Are mortality and life expectancy differences by socioeconomic groups increasing in the United States? Using a unique data set matching administrative and survey data, this study explores trends in these differentials by lifetime earnings for the 1983-2003 period. Results indicate a consistent increase in mortality differentials across sex and age groups. The study also finds a substantial increase in life expectancy differentials by lifetime earnings: the top-to-bottom quintile premium increased 30 percent for men and almost doubled for women. These results complement recent research to point to almost five decades of increasing differential mortality in the United States.