Assessment of key reproductive traits in the Apennine brown bear population

Fitness consequences and ancestry loss in the Apennine brown bear after a simulated genetic rescue intervention

Reduction in population size, with its predicted effects on population fitness, is the most alarming anthropogenic impact on endangered species. By introducing compatible individuals, genetic rescue (GR) is a promising but debated approach for reducing the genetic load unmasked by inbreeding and for restoring the fitness of declining populations. Although GR can improve genetic diversity and fitness, it can also produce loss of ancestry, hampering local adaptation, or replace with introduced variants the unique genetic pools evolved in endemic groups. We used forward genetic simulations based on empirical genomic data to assess fitness benefits and loss of ancestry risks of GR in the Apennine brown bear (Ursus arctos marsicanus). There are approximately 50 individuals of this isolated subspecies, and they have lower genetic diversity and higher inbreeding than other European brown bears, and GR has been suggested to reduce extinction risks. We compared 10 GR scenarios in which the number and genetic characteristics of migrants varied with a non-GR scenario of simple demographic increase due to nongenetic factors. The introduction of 5 individuals of higher fitness or lower levels of deleterious mutations than the target Apennine brown bear from a larger European brown bear population produced a rapid 10-20% increase in fitness in the subspecies and up to 22.4% loss of ancestry over 30 generations. Without a contemporary demographic increase, fitness started to decline again after a few generations. Doubling the population size without GR gradually increased fitness to a comparable level, but without losing ancestry, thus resulting in the best strategy for the Apennine brown bear conservation. Our results highlight the importance for management of endangered species of realistic forward simulations grounded in empirical whole-genome data.

Circadian activity of small brown bear populations living in human-dominated landscapes

Whereas numerous studies on large carnivores have focused on analyzing spatial patterns and habitat use, the temporal dimension of their activity has been relatively little investigated, making this a topic of growing interest, especially in human-dominated landscapes. Relict and isolated Apennine brown bears (Ursus arctos marsicanus) have been living in a human-modified landscape since millennia, but no information is available on their activity patterns. By means of GPS telemetry (26,880 GPS locations collected from 18 adult Apennine brown bears) we investigated their circadian rhythms, using hourly movement rates as an index of bear activity. Based on a Bayesian modeling approach, circadian activity of Apennine brown bears was described by a bimodal curve, with peaks of activity around sunrise and sunset. We revealed seasonal effects, with bears exhibiting higher movement rates throughout the mating season, but no relevant influence of sex. In addition, bears increased their movement rate at distances < 100–500 m to roads and settlements exclusively during spring and late summer, suggesting a trade-off between foraging opportunities and risk avoidance. The absence of a marked nocturnality in Apennine brown bears suggests a relatively low degree of habitat encroachment and disturbance by humans. Yet, the occurrence of crepuscular activity patterns and the responses in proximity of anthropogenic landscape features likely indicate a coadaptation by bears to human presence through a shift in their temporal niche. Further studies should aim to unveil fitness implications of such modifications in activity patterns.

First core microsatellite panel identification in Apennine brown bears (Ursus arctos marsicanus): a collaborative approach

BACKGROUND

The low cost and rapidity of microsatellite analysis have led to the development of several markers for many species. Because in non-invasive genetics it is recommended to genotype individuals using few loci, generally a subset of markers is selected. The choice of different marker panels by different research groups studying the same population can cause problems and bias in data analysis. A priority issue in conservation genetics is the comparability of data produced by different labs with different methods. Here, we compared data from previous and ongoing studies to identify a panel of microsatellite loci efficient for the long-term monitoring of Apennine brown bears (Ursus arctos marsicanus), aiming at reducing genotyping uncertainty and allowing reliable individual identifications overtimes.

RESULTS

We examined all microsatellite markers used up to now and identified 19 candidate loci. We evaluated the efficacy of 13 of the most commonly used loci analyzing 194 DNA samples belonging to 113 distinct bears selected from the Italian national biobank. We compared data from 4 different marker subsets on the basis of genotyping errors, allelic patterns, observed and expected heterozygosity, discriminatory powers, number of mismatching pairs, and probability of identity. The optimal marker set was selected evaluating the low molecular weight, the high discriminatory power, and the low occurrence of genotyping errors of each primer. We calibrated allele calls and verified matches among genotypes obtained in previous studies using the complete set of 13 STRs (Short Tandem Repeats), analyzing six invasive DNA samples from distinct individuals. Differences in allele-sizing between labs were consistent, showing a substantial overlap of the individual genotyping.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed marker set comprises 11 Ursus specific markers with the addition of cxx20, the canid-locus less prone to genotyping errors, in order to prevent underestimation (maximizing the discriminatory power) and overestimation (minimizing the genotyping errors) of the number of Apennine brown bears. The selected markers allow saving time and costs with the amplification in multiplex of all loci thanks to the same annealing temperature. Our work optimizes the available resources by identifying a shared panel and a uniform methodology capable of improving comparisons between past and future studies.

Developmental instability and phenotypic evolution in a small and isolated bear population

We explored fluctuating asymmetry (FA) and morphological integration (MI) in the skull of the small, highly inbred and divergent Apennine bear (Ursus arctos marsicanus), to explore its uniqueness and investigate any potential effects of inbreeding depression. We used 3D geometric morphometrics contrasting Apennine bears with other two large outbred bear populations from Scandinavia and Kamchatka as controls. Shape divergence and variability were explored by a principal component analysis on aligned coordinates of 39 landmarks. Procrustes ANOVA, morphological disparity and the global integration index were used to explore FA, shape variance and MI. By remarking Apennine bears as a highly divergent phenotype, we recorded the highest FA and deviation from self-similarity compared with the other two control populations. We conclude that Apennine bears are likely facing developmental instability as a consequence of inbreeding depression, whereas the divergent trait covariance pattern may represent a potential source of evolutionary novelties. We discuss the implications for the conservation and management of this imperiled taxon.

Vital rates of two small populations of brown bears in Canada and range-wide relationship between population size and trend

Identifying mechanisms of population change is fundamental for conserving small and declining populations and determining effective management strategies. Few studies, however, have measured the demographic components of population change for small populations of mammals (<50 individuals). We estimated vital rates and trends in two adjacent but genetically distinct, threatened brown bear (Ursus arctos) populations in British Columbia, Canada, following the cessation of hunting. One population had approximately 45 resident bears but had some genetic and geographic connectivity to neighboring populations, while the other population had <25 individuals and was isolated. We estimated population-specific vital rates by monitoring survival and reproduction of telemetered female bears and their dependent offspring from 2005 to 2018. In the larger, connected population, independent female survival was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.96-1.00) and the survival of cubs in their first year was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.62-0.95). In the smaller, isolated population, independent female survival was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.64-0.93) and first-year cub survival was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.11-0.67). Reproductive rates did not differ between populations. The large differences in age-specific survival estimates resulted in a projected population increase in the larger population (λ = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04-1.13) and population decrease in the smaller population (λ = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.72-0.95). Low female survival in the smaller population was the result of both continued human-caused mortality and an unusually high rate of natural mortality. Low cub survival may have been due to inbreeding and the loss of genetic diversity common in small populations, or to limited resources. In a systematic literature review, we compared our population trend estimates with those reported for other small populations (<300 individuals) of brown bears. Results suggest that once brown bear populations become small and isolated, populations rarely increase and, even with intensive management, recovery remains challenging.