Prediction of Preterm Using Time Series Technology Based Machine Learning: Retrospective Cohort Study (Preprint)

Preterm birth risk stratification through longitudinal heart rate and HRV monitoring in daily life

Preterm birth (PTB) remains a global health concern, impacting neonatal mortality and lifelong health consequences. Traditional methods for estimating PTB rely on electronic health records or biomedical signals, limited to short-term assessments in clinical settings. Recent studies have leveraged wearable technologies for in-home maternal health monitoring, offering continuous assessment of maternal autonomic nervous system (ANS) activity and facilitating the exploration of PTB risk. In this paper, we conduct a longitudinal study to assess the risk of PTB by examining maternal ANS activity through heart rate (HR) and heart rate variability (HRV). To achieve this, we collect long-term raw photoplethysmogram (PPG) signals from 58 pregnant women (including seven preterm cases) from gestational weeks 12-15 to three months post-delivery using smartwatches in daily life settings. We employ a PPG processing pipeline to accurately extract HR and HRV, and an autoencoder machine learning model with SHAP analysis to generate explainable abnormality scores indicative of PTB risk. Our results reveal distinctive patterns in PTB abnormality scores during the second pregnancy trimester, indicating the potential for early PTB risk estimation. Moreover, we find that HR, average of interbeat intervals (AVNN), SD1SD2 ratio, and standard deviation of interbeat intervals (SDNN) emerge as significant PTB indicators.

Predicting risk of preterm birth in singleton pregnancies using machine learning algorithms

We aimed to develop, train, and validate machine learning models for predicting preterm birth (<37 weeks' gestation) in singleton pregnancies at different gestational intervals. Models were developed based on complete data from 22,603 singleton pregnancies from a prospective population-based cohort study that was conducted in 51 midwifery clinics and hospitals in Wenzhou City of China between 2014 and 2016. We applied Catboost, Random Forest, Stacked Model, Deep Neural Networks (DNN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms, as well as logistic regression, to conduct feature selection and predictive modeling. Feature selection was implemented based on permutation-based feature importance lists derived from the machine learning models including all features, using a balanced training data set. To develop prediction models, the top 10%, 25%, and 50% most important predictive features were selected. Prediction models were developed with the training data set with 5-fold cross-validation for internal validation. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) values. The CatBoost-based prediction model after 26 weeks' gestation performed best with an AUC value of 0.70 (0.67, 0.73), accuracy of 0.81, sensitivity of 0.47, and specificity of 0.83. Number of antenatal care visits before 24 weeks' gestation, aspartate aminotransferase level at registration, symphysis fundal height, maternal weight, abdominal circumference, and blood pressure emerged as strong predictors after 26 completed weeks. The application of machine learning on pregnancy surveillance data is a promising approach to predict preterm birth and we identified several modifiable antenatal predictors.

Artificial intelligence as a new answer to old challenges in maternal-fetal medicine and obstetrics

BACKGROUND

Following the latest trends in the development of artificial intelligence (AI), the possibility of processing an immense amount of data has created a breakthrough in the medical field. Practitioners can now utilize AI tools to advance diagnostic protocols and improve patient care.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this article is to present the importance and modalities of AI in maternal-fetal medicine and obstetrics and its usefulness in daily clinical work and decision-making process.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature review was performed by searching PubMed for articles published from inception up until August 2023, including the search terms "artificial intelligence in obstetrics", "maternal-fetal medicine", and "machine learning" combined through Boolean operators. In addition, references lists of identified articles were further reviewed for inclusion.

RESULTS

According to recent research, AI has demonstrated remarkable potential in improving the accuracy and timeliness of diagnoses in maternal-fetal medicine and obstetrics, e.g., advancing perinatal ultrasound technique, monitoring fetal heart rate during labor, or predicting mode of delivery. The combination of AI and obstetric ultrasound can help optimize fetal ultrasound assessment by reducing examination time and improving diagnostic accuracy while reducing physician workload.

CONCLUSION

The integration of AI in maternal-fetal medicine and obstetrics has the potential to significantly improve patient outcomes, enhance healthcare efficiency, and individualized care plans. As technology evolves, AI algorithms are likely to become even more sophisticated. However, the successful implementation of AI in maternal-fetal medicine and obstetrics needs to address challenges related to interpretability and reliability.

Machine learning applied in maternal and fetal health: a narrative review focused on pregnancy diseases and complications

Introduction

Machine learning (ML) corresponds to a wide variety of methods that use mathematics, statistics and computational science to learn from multiple variables simultaneously. By means of pattern recognition, ML methods are able to find hidden correlations and accomplish accurate predictions regarding different conditions. ML has been successfully used to solve varied problems in different areas of science, such as psychology, economics, biology and chemistry. Therefore, we wondered how far it has penetrated into the field of obstetrics and gynecology.

Aim

To describe the state of art regarding the use of ML in the context of pregnancy diseases and complications.

Methodology

Publications were searched in PubMed, Web of Science and Google Scholar. Seven subjects of interest were considered: gestational diabetes mellitus, preeclampsia, perinatal death, spontaneous abortion, preterm birth, cesarean section, and fetal malformations.

Current state

ML has been widely applied in all the included subjects. Its uses are varied, the most common being the prediction of perinatal disorders. Other ML applications include (but are not restricted to) biomarker discovery, risk estimation, correlation assessment, pharmacological treatment prediction, drug screening, data acquisition and data extraction. Most of the reviewed articles were published in the last five years. The most employed ML methods in the field are non-linear. Except for logistic regression, linear methods are rarely used.

Future challenges

To improve data recording, storage and update in medical and research settings from different realities. To develop more accurate and understandable ML models using data from cutting-edge instruments. To carry out validation and impact analysis studies of currently existing high-accuracy ML models.

Conclusion

The use of ML in pregnancy diseases and complications is quite recent, and has increased over the last few years. The applications are varied and point not only to the diagnosis, but also to the management, treatment, and pathophysiological understanding of perinatal alterations. Facing the challenges that come with working with different types of data, the handling of increasingly large amounts of information, the development of emerging technologies, and the need of translational studies, it is expected that the use of ML continue growing in the field of obstetrics and gynecology.