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Walsh ME, Kristensen PK, Hjelholt TJ, Hurson C, Walsh C, Ferris H, Crozier-Shaw G, Keohane D, Geary E, O'Halloran A, Merriman NA, Blake C. Systematic review of multivariable prognostic models for outcomes at least 30 days after hip fracture finds 18 mortality models but no nonmortality models warranting validation. J Clin Epidemiol 2024; 173:111439. [PMID: 38925343 DOI: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2024.111439] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2024] [Revised: 05/29/2024] [Accepted: 06/17/2024] [Indexed: 06/28/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Prognostic models have the potential to aid clinical decision-making after hip fracture. This systematic review aimed to identify, critically appraise, and summarize multivariable prediction models for mortality or other long-term recovery outcomes occurring at least 30 days after hip fracture. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and CINAHL databases were searched up to May 2023. Studies were included that aimed to develop multivariable models to make predictions for individuals at least 30 days after hip fracture. Risk of bias (ROB) was dual-assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool. Study and model details were extracted and summarized. RESULTS From 5571 records, 80 eligible studies were identified. They predicted mortality in n = 55 studies/81 models and nonmortality outcomes (mobility, function, residence, medical, and surgical complications) in n = 30 studies/45 models. Most (n = 46; 58%) studies were published since 2020. A quarter of studies (n = 19; 24%) reported using 'machine-learning methods', while the remainder used logistic regression (n = 54; 68%) and other statistical methods (n = 11; 14%) to build models. Overall, 15 studies (19%) presented 18 low ROB models, all predicting mortality. Common concerns were sample size, missing data handling, inadequate internal validation, and calibration assessment. Many studies with nonmortality outcomes (n = 11; 37%) had clear data complexities that were not correctly modeled. CONCLUSION This review has comprehensively summarized and appraised multivariable prediction models for long-term outcomes after hip fracture. Only 15 studies of 55 predicting mortality were rated as low ROB, warranting further development of their models. All studies predicting nonmortality outcomes were high or unclear ROB. Careful consideration is required for both the methods used and justification for developing further nonmortality prediction models for this clinical population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mary E Walsh
- School of Public Health, Physiotherapy and Sports Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, D04 C7X2, Ireland.
| | - Pia Kjær Kristensen
- The Department of Clinical Medicine, Orthopaedic, Aarhus University, DK-8200, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Thomas J Hjelholt
- Department of Geriatrics, Aarhus University Hospital, DK-8200, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Conor Hurson
- Department of Trauma and Orthopaedics, St Vincent's University Hospital, Dublin D04 T6F4, Ireland
| | - Cathal Walsh
- School of Medicine, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Helena Ferris
- Department of Public Health, Health Service Executive - South West, St. Finbarr's Hospital, Cork, T12 XH60, Ireland
| | - Geoff Crozier-Shaw
- Department of Trauma and Orthopaedics, Mater Misercordiae University Hospital, Eccles Street, Dublin, Ireland
| | - David Keohane
- Department of Orthopaedics, St. James' Hospital, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Ellen Geary
- Department of Trauma and Orthopaedics, St Vincent's University Hospital, Dublin D04 T6F4, Ireland
| | | | - Niamh A Merriman
- School of Public Health, Physiotherapy and Sports Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, D04 C7X2, Ireland
| | - Catherine Blake
- School of Public Health, Physiotherapy and Sports Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, D04 C7X2, Ireland
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Arina P, Kaczorek MR, Hofmaenner DA, Pisciotta W, Refinetti P, Singer M, Mazomenos EB, Whittle J. Prediction of Complications and Prognostication in Perioperative Medicine: A Systematic Review and PROBAST Assessment of Machine Learning Tools. Anesthesiology 2024; 140:85-101. [PMID: 37944114 PMCID: PMC11146190 DOI: 10.1097/aln.0000000000004764] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/22/2023] [Indexed: 11/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The utilization of artificial intelligence and machine learning as diagnostic and predictive tools in perioperative medicine holds great promise. Indeed, many studies have been performed in recent years to explore the potential. The purpose of this systematic review is to assess the current state of machine learning in perioperative medicine, its utility in prediction of complications and prognostication, and limitations related to bias and validation. METHODS A multidisciplinary team of clinicians and engineers conducted a systematic review using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) protocol. Multiple databases were searched, including Scopus, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), the Cochrane Library, PubMed, Medline, Embase, and Web of Science. The systematic review focused on study design, type of machine learning model used, validation techniques applied, and reported model performance on prediction of complications and prognostication. This review further classified outcomes and machine learning applications using an ad hoc classification system. The Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess risk of bias and applicability of the studies. RESULTS A total of 103 studies were identified. The models reported in the literature were primarily based on single-center validations (75%), with only 13% being externally validated across multiple centers. Most of the mortality models demonstrated a limited ability to discriminate and classify effectively. The PROBAST assessment indicated a high risk of systematic errors in predicted outcomes and artificial intelligence or machine learning applications. CONCLUSIONS The findings indicate that the development of this field is still in its early stages. This systematic review indicates that application of machine learning in perioperative medicine is still at an early stage. While many studies suggest potential utility, several key challenges must be first overcome before their introduction into clinical practice. EDITOR’S PERSPECTIVE
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Affiliation(s)
- Pietro Arina
- Bloomsbury Institute of Intensive Care Medicine and Human Physiology and Performance Laboratory, Centre for Perioperative Medicine, Department of Targeted Intervention, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Maciej R. Kaczorek
- Wellcome/EPSRC Centre of Interventional and Surgical Sciences and Department of Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Daniel A. Hofmaenner
- Bloomsbury Institute of Intensive Care Medicine, University College London, London, United Kingdom; and Institute of Intensive Care Medicine, University Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Walter Pisciotta
- Bloomsbury Institute of Intensive Care Medicine, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Patricia Refinetti
- Human Physiology and Performance Laboratory, Centre for Perioperative Medicine, Department of Targeted Intervention, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Mervyn Singer
- Bloomsbury Institute of Intensive Care Medicine, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Evangelos B. Mazomenos
- Wellcome/EPSRC Centre of Interventional and Surgical Sciences and Department of Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - John Whittle
- Human Physiology and Performance Laboratory, Centre for Perioperative Medicine, Department of Targeted Intervention, University College London, London, United Kingdom
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Chen BK, Liu YC, Chen CC, Chen YP, Kuo YJ, Huang SW. Correlation between C-reactive protein and postoperative mortality in patients undergoing hip fracture surgery: a meta-analysis. J Orthop Surg Res 2023; 18:182. [PMID: 36894998 PMCID: PMC9996565 DOI: 10.1186/s13018-023-03516-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2022] [Accepted: 01/08/2023] [Indexed: 03/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Hip fracture is a common but devastating disease with a high mortality rate in the older adult population. C-reactive protein (CRP) is a predictor of the prognosis in many diseases, but its correlations with patient outcomes following hip fracture surgery remain unclear. In this meta-analysis, we investigated the correlation between perioperative CRP level and postoperative mortality in patients undergoing hip fracture surgery. METHODS PubMed, Embase, and Scopus were searched for relevant studies published before September 2022. Observational studies investigating the correlation between perioperative CRP level and postoperative mortality in patients with hip fracture were included. The differences in CRP levels between the survivors and nonsurvivors following hip fracture surgery were measured with mean differences (MDs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS Fourteen prospective and retrospective cohort studies comprising 3986 patients with hip fracture were included in the meta-analysis. Both the preoperative and postoperative CRP levels were significantly higher in the death group than in the survival group when the follow-up duration was ≥ 6 months (MD: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.37-0.98, P < 0.0001; MD: 1.26, 95% CI: 0.87-1.65, P < 0.00001, respectively). Preoperative CRP levels were significantly higher in the death group than in the survival group when the follow-up duration was ≤ 30 days (MD: 1.49, 95% CI: 0.29-2.68; P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS Both higher preoperative and postoperative CRP levels were correlated with higher risk of mortality following hip fracture surgery, suggesting the prognostic role of CRP. Further studies are warranted to confirm the ability of CRP to predict postoperative mortality in patients with hip fracture.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bing-Kuan Chen
- Department of General Medicine, Shuang Ho Hospital, New Taipei City, Taiwan
| | - Yu-Cheng Liu
- College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chun-Ching Chen
- College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Yu-Pin Chen
- Department of Orthopedics, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, No. 111, Sec. 3, Xinglong Rd., Wenshan Dist., Taipei City, 116, Taiwan.,Department of Orthopaedics, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Yi-Jie Kuo
- Department of Orthopedics, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, No. 111, Sec. 3, Xinglong Rd., Wenshan Dist., Taipei City, 116, Taiwan.,Department of Orthopaedics, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Shu-Wei Huang
- Department of Orthopedics, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, No. 111, Sec. 3, Xinglong Rd., Wenshan Dist., Taipei City, 116, Taiwan.
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Lu X, Wang Z, Chong F, Wang Y, Wu S, Du Q, Gou W, Peng K, Xiong Y. A New Nomogram Model for Predicting 1-Year All-Cause Mortality After Hip Arthroplasty in Nonagenarians With Hip Fractures: A 20-Year Period Retrospective Cohort Study. Front Surg 2022; 9:926745. [PMID: 35836611 PMCID: PMC9273933 DOI: 10.3389/fsurg.2022.926745] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2022] [Accepted: 05/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BackgroundChina has become an ageing society and as it continues to age, it will face an increasing number of hip fractures in nonagenarians. However, few preoperative assessment tools to determine the postoperative mortality risk in nonagenarians with hip fracture were available. The aim of this study was to identify all-cause mortality risk factors after hip arthroplasty in nonagenarians with hip fractures and to establish a new nomogram model to optimize the individualized hip arthroplasty in nonagenarians with hip fractures.MethodsWe retrospectively studied 246 consecutive nonagenarians diagnosed with hip fracture from August 2002 to February 2021 at our center. During the follow-up, 203 nonagenarians with a median age of 91.9 years treated with hip arthroplasty were included, of which 136 were females and 67 were males, and 43 nonagenarians were excluded (40 underwent internal fixation and 3 were lost to follow-up). The full cohort was randomly divided into training (50%) and validation (50%) sets. The potential predictive factors for 1-year all-cause mortality after hip arthroplasty were assessed by univariate and multivariate COX proportional hazards regression on the training set, and then, a new nomogram model was established and evaluated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves.ResultsAfter analyzing 44 perioperative variables including demographic characteristics, vital signs, surgical data, laboratory tests, we identified that age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (aCCI) (p = 0.042), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification (p = 0.007), Urea (p = 0.028), serum Ca2+ (p = 0.011), postoperative hemoglobin (p = 0.024) were significant predictors for 1-year all-cause mortality after hip arthroplasty in the training set. The nomogram showed a robust discrimination, with a C-index of 0.71 (95%CIs, 0.68–0.78). The calibration curves for 1-year all-cause mortality showed optimal agreement between the probability as predicted by the nomogram and the actual probability in training and validation sets.ConclusionA novel nomogram model integrating 5 independent predictive variables were established and validated. It can effectively predict 1-year all-cause mortality after hip arthroplasty in nonagenarians with hip fracture and lead to a more optimized and rational therapeutic choice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xingchen Lu
- Department of Orthopaedics, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, China
| | - Ziming Wang
- Department of Orthopaedics, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, China
| | - Feifei Chong
- Department of Clinical Nutrition, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, China
| | - Yu Wang
- Department of Orthopaedics, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, China
| | - Siyu Wu
- Department of Orthopaedics, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, China
| | - Quanyin Du
- Department of Orthopaedics, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, China
| | - Wenlong Gou
- Department of Orthopaedics, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, China
| | - Keyun Peng
- Department of Orthopaedics, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, China
| | - Yan Xiong
- Department of Orthopaedics, Daping Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, China
- Correspondence: Yan Xiong
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