An Unsupervised Data-driven Anomaly Detection Approach for Detection of Adverse Health Conditions in People Living with Dementia: Cohort Study (Preprint)

Digital phenotyping data and anomaly detection methods to assess changes in mood and anxiety symptoms across a transdiagnostic clinical sample

INTRODUCTION

Clinical assessment of mood and anxiety change often relies on clinical assessment or self-reported scales. Using smartphone digital phenotyping data and resulting markers of behavior (e.g., sleep) to augment clinical symptom scores offers a scalable and potentially more valid method to understand changes in patients' state. This paper explores the potential of using a combination of active and passive sensors in the context of smartphone-based digital phenotyping to assess mood and anxiety changes in two distinct cohorts of patients to assess the preliminary reliability and validity of this digital phenotyping method.

METHODS

Participants from two different cohorts, each n = 76, one with diagnoses of depression/anxiety and the other schizophrenia, utilized mindLAMP to collect active data (e.g., surveys on mood/anxiety), along with passive data consisting of smartphone digital phenotyping data (geolocation, accelerometer, and screen state) for at least 1 month. Using anomaly detection algorithms, we assessed if statistical anomalies in the combination of active and passive data could predict changes in mood/anxiety scores as measured via smartphone surveys.

RESULTS

The anomaly detection model was reliably able to predict symptom change of 4 points or greater for depression as measured by the PHQ-9 and anxiety as measured for the GAD-8 for both patient populations, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.65 and 0.80 for each respectively. For both PHQ-9 and GAD-7, these AUCs were maintained when predicting significant symptom change at least 7 days in advance. Active data alone predicted around 52% and 75% of the symptom variability for the depression/anxiety and schizophrenia populations respectively.

CONCLUSION

These results indicate the feasibility of anomaly detection for predicting symptom change in transdiagnostic cohorts. These results across different patient groups, different countries, and different sites (India and the US) suggest anomaly detection of smartphone digital phenotyping data may offer a reliable and valid approach to predicting symptom change. Future work should emphasize prospective application of these statistical methods.

Definitions of digital biomarkers: a systematic mapping of the biomedical literature

BACKGROUND

Technological devices such as smartphones, wearables and virtual assistants enable health data collection, serving as digital alternatives to conventional biomarkers. We aimed to provide a systematic overview of emerging literature on 'digital biomarkers,' covering definitions, features and citations in biomedical research.

METHODS

We analysed all articles in PubMed that used 'digital biomarker(s)' in title or abstract, considering any study involving humans and any review, editorial, perspective or opinion-based articles up to 8 March 2023. We systematically extracted characteristics of publications and research studies, and any definitions and features of 'digital biomarkers' mentioned. We described the most influential literature on digital biomarkers and their definitions using thematic categorisations of definitions considering the Food and Drug Administration Biomarkers, EndpointS and other Tools framework (ie, data type, data collection method, purpose of biomarker), analysing structural similarity of definitions by performing text and citation analyses.

RESULTS

We identified 415 articles using 'digital biomarker' between 2014 and 2023 (median 2021). The majority (283 articles; 68%) were primary research. Notably, 287 articles (69%) did not provide a definition of digital biomarkers. Among the 128 articles with definitions, there were 127 different ones. Of these, 78 considered data collection, 56 data type, 50 purpose and 23 included all three components. Those 128 articles with a definition had a median of 6 citations, with the top 10 each presenting distinct definitions.

CONCLUSIONS

The definitions of digital biomarkers vary significantly, indicating a lack of consensus in this emerging field. Our overview highlights key defining characteristics, which could guide the development of a more harmonised accepted definition.

Early warning systems for malaria outbreaks in Thailand: an anomaly detection approach

BACKGROUND

Malaria continues to pose a significant health threat. Rapid identification of malaria infections and the deployment of active surveillance tools are crucial for achieving malaria elimination in regions where malaria is endemic, such as certain areas of Thailand. In this study, an anomaly detection system is introduced as an early warning mechanism for potential malaria outbreaks in countries like Thailand.

METHODS

Unsupervised clustering-based, and time series-based anomaly detection algorithms are developed and compared to identify abnormal malaria activity in Thailand. Additionally, a user interface tailored for anomaly detection is designed, enabling the Thai malaria surveillance team to utilize these algorithms and visualize regions exhibiting unusual malaria patterns.

RESULTS

Nine distinct anomaly detection algorithms we developed. Their efficacy in pinpointing verified outbreaks was assessed using malaria case data from Thailand spanning 2012 to 2022. The historical average threshold-based anomaly detection method triggered three times fewer alerts, while correctly identifying the same number of verified outbreaks when compared to the current method used in Thailand. A limitation of this analysis is the small number of verified outbreaks; further consultation with the Division of Vector Borne Disease could help identify more verified outbreaks. The developed dashboard, designed specifically for anomaly detection, allows disease surveillance professionals to easily identify and visualize unusual malaria activity at a provincial level across Thailand.

CONCLUSION

An enhanced early warning system is proposed to bolster malaria elimination efforts for countries with a similar malaria profile to Thailand. The developed anomaly detection algorithms, after thorough comparison, have been optimized for integration with the current malaria surveillance infrastructure. An anomaly detection dashboard for Thailand is built and supports early detection of abnormal malaria activity. In summary, the proposed early warning system enhances the identification process for provinces at risk of outbreaks and offers easy integration with Thailand's established malaria surveillance framework.

Artificial intelligence for dementia prevention

INTRODUCTION

A wide range of modifiable risk factors for dementia have been identified. Considerable debate remains about these risk factors, possible interactions between them or with genetic risk, and causality, and how they can help in clinical trial recruitment and drug development. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) may refine understanding.

METHODS

ML approaches are being developed in dementia prevention. We discuss exemplar uses and evaluate the current applications and limitations in the dementia prevention field.

RESULTS

Risk-profiling tools may help identify high-risk populations for clinical trials; however, their performance needs improvement. New risk-profiling and trial-recruitment tools underpinned by ML models may be effective in reducing costs and improving future trials. ML can inform drug-repurposing efforts and prioritization of disease-modifying therapeutics.

DISCUSSION

ML is not yet widely used but has considerable potential to enhance precision in dementia prevention.

HIGHLIGHTS

Artificial intelligence (AI) is not widely used in the dementia prevention field. Risk-profiling tools are not used in clinical practice. Causal insights are needed to understand risk factors over the lifespan. AI will help personalize risk-management tools for dementia prevention. AI could target specific patient groups that will benefit most for clinical trials.