Feasibility of Establishing HIV Case-Based Surveillance to Measure Progress Along the Health Sector Cascade: Situational Assessments in Tanzania, South Africa, and Kenya

The cyclical cascade of HIV care: Temporal care engagement trends within a population-wide cohort

BACKGROUND

The traditional HIV treatment cascade aims to visualise the journey of each person living with HIV from diagnosis, through initiation on antiretroviral therapy (ART) to treatment success, represented by virological suppression. This representation has been a pivotal tool in highlighting and quantifying sequential gaps along the care continuum. There is longstanding recognition, however, that this may oversimplify the complexity of real-world engagement with HIV services in settings with mature high-burden HIV epidemics. A complementary "cyclical" cascade has been proposed to represent the processes of disengagement at different points on the care continuum, with multiple pathways to re-engagement, although the feasibility of implementing this at scale has been uncertain. This study aimed to populate, refine, and explore the utility of a cyclical representation of the HIV cascade, using routine data from a high-burden HIV setting.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This observational cohort study leveraged person-level data on all people living with HIV in the Western Cape (WC), South Africa, who accessed public health services in the 2 years prior to 31 December 2023. Programme data from disease registers were complemented by data from pharmacy and laboratory systems. At study closure, 494 370 people were included, constituting 93% of those of those estimated to be living with HIV in the province, of whom 355 104 were on ART. Substantial disengagement from HIV care was evident at every point on the cascade. Early treatment emerged as a period of higher risk of disengagement, but it did not account for the majority of disengagement. Almost all those currently disengaged had prior experience of treatment. While re-engagement was also common, overall treatment coverage had increased slowly over 5 years. The transition to dolutegravir-based regimens was dramatic with good virological outcomes for those in care, notwithstanding a clearly discernible impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on viral load (VL) testing. People currently engaged and disengaged in care are similar with respect to age and gender. Those who died or disengaged recently were previously distributed across a range of cascade statuses, and a substantial proportion of those newly initiating and re-initiating treatment were no longer on treatment 6 months later. The main limitation of this study was incomplete evidence of HIV testing, linkage to HIV-specific services, and out-of-facility mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Using routine data, it was possible to populate and automate a cyclical cascade of HIV care that continuously captured the nonlinear care journeys of individuals living with HIV. In this generalised mature HIV epidemic, most people are treatment experienced. Disengagement is common and occurs at various points along the cascade, making it challenging to identify high-impact intervention opportunities. While historical HIV cascades remain valuable for target setting and service monitoring, they can be complemented with insights from more detailed cyclical cascades.

Triangulation of Routine Antenatal HIV Prevalence Data and Adjusted HIV Estimates in Mozambique

BACKGROUND

Routine health system data are central to monitoring HIV trends. In Mozambique, the reported number of women receiving antenatal care (ANC) and antiretroviral therapy for prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) has exceeded the Spectrum-estimated number of pregnant women since 2017. In some provinces, reported HIV prevalence in pregnant women has declined faster than epidemiologically plausible. We hypothesized that these issues are linked and caused by programmatic overenumeration of HIV-negative pregnant women at ANC.

METHODS

We triangulated program-reported ANC client numbers with survey-based fertility estimates and facility birth data adjusted for the proportion of facility births. We used survey-reported ANC attendance to produce adjusted time series of HIV prevalence in pregnant women, adjusted for hypothesized program double counting. We calibrated the Spectrum HIV estimation models to adjusted HIV prevalence data to produce adjusted adult and pediatric HIV estimates.

RESULTS

ANC client numbers were not consistent with facility birth data or modeled population estimates indicating ANC data quality issues in all provinces. Adjusted provincial ANC HIV prevalence in 2021 was median 45% [interquartile range 35%-52% or 2.3 percentage points (interquartile range 2.5-3.5)] higher than reported HIV prevalence. In 2021, calibrating to adjusted antenatal HIV prevalence lowered PMTCT coverage to less than 100% in most provinces and increased the modeled number of new child infections by 35%. The adjusted results better reconciled adult and pediatric antiretroviral treatment coverage and antenatal HIV prevalence with regional fertility estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Adjusting HIV prevalence in pregnant women using nationally representative household survey data on ANC attendance produced estimates more consistent with surveillance data. The number of children living with HIV in Mozambique has been substantially underestimated because of biased routine ANC prevalence. Renewed focus on HIV surveillance among pregnant women would improve PMTCT coverage and pediatric HIV estimates.

Progress towards unique patient identification and case-based surveillance within the Southern African development community

Population mobility makes patient-tracking and care linkage in the South African Development Community (SADC) challenging. Case-based surveillance (CBS) through individual-level clinical data linked with a unique patient-identifier (UPI) is recommended. We conducted a mixed-methods landscape analysis of UPI and CBS implementation within selected SADC countries, this included: (1) SADC UPI implementation literature review; (2) assessment of UPI and CBS implementation for high HIV-prevalence SADC countries; (3) UPI implementation case-study in selected South African primary healthcare (PHC) facilities. Research into CBS and UPI implementation for the SADC region is lacking. Existing patient-identification methods often fail and limit patient-tracking. Paper-based records and poor integration between health-information systems further restrict patient-tracking. Most countries were in the early-middle stages of CBS and faced UPI challenges. Our South African case-study found that the UPI often goes uncaptured. Difficulties tracking patients across prevention and care cascades will continue until a functional and reliable UPI is available.

Comparison of cohort characteristics in Central Africa International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS and Demographic Health Surveys: Rwanda and Burundi

Clinical health record data are used for HIV surveillance, but the extent to which these data are population representative is not clear. We compared age, marital status, body mass index, and pregnancy distributions in the Central Africa International Databases to Evaluate AIDS (CA-IeDEA) cohorts in Burundi and Rwanda to all people living with HIV and the subpopulation reporting receiving a previous HIV test result in the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data, restricted to urban areas, where CA-IeDEA sites are located. DHS uses a probabilistic sample for population-level HIV prevalence estimates. In Rwanda, the CA-IeDEA cohort and DHS populations were similar with respect to age and marital status for men and women, which was also true in Burundi among women. In Burundi, the CA-IeDEA cohort had a greater proportion of younger and single men than the DHS data, which may be a result of outreach to sexual minority populations at CA-IeDEA sites and economic migration patterns. In both countries, the CA-IeDEA cohorts had a higher proportion of underweight individuals, suggesting that symptomatic individuals are more likely to access care in these settings. Multiple sources of data are needed for HIV surveillance to interpret potential biases in epidemiological data.

Is Inclusion of informed consent associated with HIV seropositivity rate? findings from 2017 HIV sentinel surveillance among men having sex with men in select states of India

Background

During round 2017 of HIV Sentinel Surveillance (HSS) for men who have sex with men (MSM) in India, sampling strategy was changed from consecutive sampling to random sampling, and recruitment was conditioned on informed written consent.

Objective

The study aimed to explore whether inclusion of informed consent is associated with HIV seropositivity rates among MSM population in select four states of Central India.

Methods

The cross-sectional study was conducted in four states of Delhi, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand that were supervised by All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi. We did analysis of data collected during 2017 HSS, supplemented with additional program data from targeted intervention (TI) sites. All nine MSM sites in four states were included. Participants were defined as all those MSM who participated in HSS 2017 irrespective of whether they were mentioned in the random list or were selected by the TI partner. The MSM in the random list who either refused to participate or could not be contacted even after three attempts were classified as "nonparticipants." Seropositivity of both groups was compared. Descriptive statistics were derived.

Results

Overall nonparticipation rate was 14.7%, the highest being in Jharkhand (26%) and lowest in Uttarakhand (6.8%). Overall HIV positivity rate was significantly higher (P < 0.001) in nonparticipants (4.2%) when compared to participants (1.42%).

Conclusion

The change in sampling strategy and introduction of written informed consent for recruitment of high-risk groups in HSS 2017 round could have led to an underestimation of HIV seropositivity rate among MSM in the states in Central Zone.

Evaluation of the Zimbabwe HIV case surveillance pilot project, 2019

Zimbabwe has a high burden of HIV (i.e., estimated 1.3 million HIV-infected and 13.8% HIV incidence in 2017). In 2017, the country developed and implemented a pilot of HIV case surveillance (CS) based on the 2017 World Health Organisation (WHO) person-centred HIV patient monitoring (PM) and case surveillance guidelines. At the end of the pilot phase an evaluation was conducted to inform further steps. The pilot was conducted in two districts (i.e., Umzingwane in Matabeleland South Province and Mutare in Manicaland Province) from August 2017 to December 2018. A mixed-methods cross-sectional study of stakeholders and health facility staff was used to assess the design and operations, performance, usefulness, sustainability, and scalability of the CS system. A total of 13 stakeholders responded to an online questionnaire, while 33 health facility respondents were interviewed in 11 health facilities in the two districts. The HIV CS system was adequately designed for Zimbabwe's context, integrated within existing health information systems at the facility level. However, the training was minimal, and an opportunity to train the data entry clerks in data analysis was missed. The system performed well in terms of surveillance and informatics attributes. However, viral load test results return was a significant problem. The HIV CS system was found useful at the health facility level and should be rolled out in a phased manner, beginning in Manicaland and Matabeleland South provinces. An electronic link needs to be made between the health facilities and the laboratory to reduce viral load test results delays.

Data Centre Profile: The Provincial Health Data Centre of the Western Cape Province, South Africa

Introduction

The Western Cape Provincial Health Data Centre (PHDC) consolidates person-level clinical data across government services, leveraging sustained investments in patient registration systems, a unique identifier, and maturation of administrative and clinical digital health systems.

Objectives

The PHDC supports clinical care directly through tools for clinicians which integrate patient data or identify patients in need of interventions, and indirectly through supporting operational and epidemiological analyses.

Methods

The PHDC is housed entirely within government. Data are processed from a range of source systems, usually daily, through distinct harmonisation and curation, beneficiation, and reporting processes. Linkage is predominantly through the unique identifier which doubles as a pervasive folder number, augmented by other identifiers. Further data processing includes triangulation of multiple data sources for enumerating health conditions, with assignment of certainty levels for each enumeration. Outputs include patient-specific email alerts, a web-based consolidated patient clinical viewing platform, filterable line-listings of patients with specific conditions and associated characteristics and outcomes, management reports and dashboards, and data releases in response to operational and research data requests. Strict architectural, administrative and governance processes ensure privacy protection.

Results

In the past decade 8 million unique people are recorded as having sought healthcare in the provincial public sector health services, with current utilisation at 15 million attendances or admissions a year. Cross-sectional enumeration of health conditions includes over 430 000 people with HIV, 500 000 with hypertension, 235 000 with diabetes. Annually 110 000 pregnancies and 54 000 patients with tuberculosis are enumerated. Over 50 data requests are processed each year for internal and external requesters in accordance with data request and release governance processes.

Conclusions

The single consolidated environment for person-level health data in the Western Cape has created new opportunities for supporting patient care, while improving the governance around access to and release of sensitive patient data.

Implementation and outcomes of a patient tracing programme for HIV in Trinidad and Tobago

A patient tracing programme was implemented at an HIV clinic in Trinidad and Tobago to address the problem of defaulters from HIV care and non-adherence to antiretroviral treatment (ART). The study objective was to evaluate the implementation and outcomes of this programme conducted between April and September 2017. Using patient tracing contact methods, trained social workers attempted to contact 1058 patients lost to follow up (LTFU) between July 2016 and March 2017. Of the 1058 LTFU, 192 were ineligible: 27 (2.5%) were transferred to another clinic, 64 (6%) deceased, 35 (3.3%) hospitalised, 50 (4.7%) migrated and 16 (1.5%) incarcerated. Of the 866 eligible patients for patient tracing, 277 (32%) remained permanently LTFU and 589 (68%) were successfully contacted, re-engaged in care and received adherence counselling. Of the 589 who returned to care, 507 (86%) restarted ART. The three most common barriers reported among the 589 who were reengaged were 'forgetting their appointments' (20%), 'being too busy/work' (16%), and 'not wanting to be seen attending the HIV clinic' (12%). The study findings demonstrated the tracing programme as feasible for re-engaging those who are LTFU and highlighted barriers that can be addressed to further improve retention in HIV care among people living with HIV.

The Continuing Value of CD4 Cell Count Monitoring for Differential HIV Care and Surveillance

The move toward universal provision of antiretroviral therapy and the expansion of HIV viral load monitoring call into question the ongoing value of CD4 cell count testing and monitoring. We highlight the role CD4 monitoring continues to have in guiding clinical decisions and measuring and evaluating the epidemiology of HIV. To end the HIV/AIDS epidemic, we require strategic information, which includes CD4 cell counts, to make informed clinical decisions and effectively monitor key surveillance indicators.

Approaches to Improve the Surveillance, Monitoring, and Management of Noncommunicable Diseases in HIV-Infected Persons: Viewpoint

Low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) are undergoing an epidemiological transition, in which the burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is rising and mortality will shift from infectious diseases to NCDs. Specifically, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, renal diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and cancer are becoming more prevalent. In some regions, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, the dual HIV and NCD epidemics will pose challenges because their joint burden will have adverse effects on the quality of life and will likely increase global inequities. Given the austere clinical infrastructure in many LMICs, innovative models of care delivery are needed to provide comprehensive care in resource-limited settings. Improved data collection and surveillance of NCDs among HIV-infected persons in LMICs are necessary to inform integrated NCD-HIV prevention, care, and treatment models that are effective across a range of geographic settings. These efforts will preserve the considerable investments that have been made to prevent the number of lives lost to HIV, promote healthy aging of persons living with HIV, and contribute to meeting United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

Where No Universal Health Care Identifier Exists: Comparison and Determination of the Utility of Score-Based Persons Matching Algorithms Using Demographic Data

BACKGROUND

A universal health care identifier (UHID) facilitates the development of longitudinal medical records in health care settings where follow up and tracking of persons across health care sectors are needed. HIV case-based surveillance (CBS) entails longitudinal follow up of HIV cases from diagnosis, linkage to care and treatment, and is recommended for second generation HIV surveillance. In the absence of a UHID, records matching, linking, and deduplication may be done using score-based persons matching algorithms. We present a stepwise process of score-based persons matching algorithms based on demographic data to improve HIV CBS and other longitudinal data systems.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to compare deterministic and score-based persons matching algorithms in records linkage and matching using demographic data in settings without a UHID.

METHODS

We used HIV CBS pilot data from 124 facilities in 2 high HIV-burden counties (Siaya and Kisumu) in western Kenya. For efficient processing, data were grouped into 3 scenarios within (1) HIV testing services (HTS), (2) HTS-care, and (3) within care. In deterministic matching, we directly compared identifiers and pseudo-identifiers from medical records to determine matches. We used R stringdist package for Jaro, Jaro-Winkler score-based matching and Levenshtein, and Damerau-Levenshtein string edit distance calculation methods. For the Jaro-Winkler method, we used a penalty (р)=0.1 and applied 4 weights (ω) to Levenshtein and Damerau-Levenshtein: deletion ω=0.8, insertion ω=0.8, substitutions ω=1, and transposition ω=0.5.

RESULTS

We abstracted 12,157 cases of which 4073/12,157 (33.5%) were from HTS, 1091/12,157 (9.0%) from HTS-care, and 6993/12,157 (57.5%) within care. Using the deterministic process 435/12,157 (3.6%) duplicate records were identified, yielding 96.4% (11,722/12,157) unique cases. Overall, of the score-based methods, Jaro-Winkler yielded the most duplicate records (686/12,157, 5.6%) while Jaro yielded the least duplicates (546/12,157, 4.5%), and Levenshtein and Damerau-Levenshtein yielded 4.6% (563/12,157) duplicates. Specifically, duplicate records yielded by method were: (1) Jaro 5.7% (234/4073) within HTS, 0.4% (4/1091) in HTS-care, and 4.4% (308/6993) within care, (2) Jaro-Winkler 7.4% (302/4073) within HTS, 0.5% (6/1091) in HTS-care, and 5.4% (378/6993) within care, (3) Levenshtein 6.4% (262/4073) within HTS, 0.4% (4/1091) in HTS-care, and 4.2% (297/6993) within care, and (4) Damerau-Levenshtein 6.4% (262/4073) within HTS, 0.4% (4/1091) in HTS-care, and 4.2% (297/6993) within care.

CONCLUSIONS

Without deduplication, over reporting occurs across the care and treatment cascade. Jaro-Winkler score-based matching performed the best in identifying matches. A pragmatic estimate of duplicates in health care settings can provide a corrective factor for modeled estimates, for targeting and program planning. We propose that even without a UHID, standard national deduplication and persons-matching algorithm that utilizes demographic data would improve accuracy in monitoring HIV care clinical cascades.

HIV treatment and monitoring patterns in routine practice: a multi-country retrospective chart review of patient care

Background: A study of patient records in four HIV clinics in three sub-Saharan African countries examined routine clinical care patterns and variations.

Methods: Clinic characteristics were described, and patient data extracted from a sample of medical records. Data on treatment, CD4 count and viral load (VL) were obtained for the last visit in the records, dates mainly between 2015 and 2017, patient demographic data were obtained from the first clinic visit.

Results: Four clinics, two in Nigeria, one in Zambia and one in Uganda, all public facilities, using national HIV treatment guidelines were included. Numbers of patients and health professionals varied, with some variation in stated frequency of testing for CD4 count and VL. Clinical guidelines were available in each clinic, and most drugs were available free to patients. The proportion of patients with a CD4 count in the records varied from 84 to 100 percent, the latest median count varied from 269 to 593 between clinics. 35% had a record of a VL test, varying from 1% to 63% of patients. Lamivudine (3TC) was recorded for more than 90% of patients in each clinic, and although there was variation between clinics in the choice of antiretroviral therapy (ART), the majority were on first line drugs consistent with guidelines.  Only about 2% of the patients were on second-line ARTs. In two clinics, 100% and 99% of patients were prescribed co-trimoxazole, compared with 7% and no patients in the two other clinics.

Conclusions: The wide variation in available clinic health work force, levels and frequency of CD4 counts, and VL assessment and treatment indicate sub-optimal adherence to current guidelines in routine clinical care. There is room for further work to understand the reasons for this variation, and to standardise record keeping and routine care of HIV positive patients.

Strengthening Routine Data Systems to Track the HIV Epidemic and Guide the Response in Sub-Saharan Africa

The global HIV response has entered a new phase with the recommendation of treating all persons living with HIV with antiretroviral therapy, and with the goals of reducing new infections and AIDS-related deaths to fewer than 500,000 by 2020. This new phase has intensive data requirements that will need to utilize routine data collected through service delivery platforms to monitor progress toward these goals. With a focus on sub-Saharan African, we present the following priorities to improve the demand, supply, and use of routine HIV data: (1) strengthening patient-level HIV data systems that support continuity of clinical care and document sentinel events; (2) leveraging data from HIV testing programs; (3) using targeting data collection in communities and among clients; and (4) building capacity and promoting a culture of HIV data quality assessment and use. When fully leveraged, routine data can efficiently provide timely information at a local level to inform action, as well as provide information at scale with wide geographic coverage to strengthen estimation efforts.

A pragmatic approach to monitor and evaluate implementation and impact of differentiated ART delivery for global and national stakeholders

INTRODUCTION

The World Health Organization's (WHO) recommendation of "Treat All" has accelerated the call for differentiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) delivery, a method of care that efficiently uses limited resources to increase access to HIV treatment. WHO has further recommended that stable individuals on ART receive refills every 3 to 6 months and attend clinical visits every 3 to 6 months. However, there is not yet consensus on how to ensure that the quality of services is maintained as countries strive to meet these standards. This commentary responds to this gap by defining a pragmatic approach to the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of the scale up of differentiated ART delivery for global and national stakeholders.

DISCUSSION

Programme managers need to demonstrate that the scale up of differentiated ART delivery is achieving the desired effectiveness and efficiency outcomes to justify continued support by national and global stakeholders. To achieve this goal, the two existing global WHO HIV treatment indicators of ART retention and viral suppression should be augmented with two broad aggregate measures. The addition of indicators measuring the frequency of (1) clinical and (2) refill visits by PLHIV per year will allow evaluation of the pace of scale up while monitoring its overall effect on the quality and efficiency of services. The combination of these four routinely collected aggregate indicators will also facilitate the comparison of outcomes among facilities, regions or countries implementing different models of ART delivery. Enhanced monitoring or additional assessments will be required to answer other critical questions on the process of implementation, acceptability, effectiveness and efficiency.

CONCLUSIONS

These proposed outcomes are useful markers for the effectiveness and efficiency of the health system's attempts to deliver quality treatment to those who need it-and still reserve as much of the available resource pool as possible for other key elements of the HIV response.

Know Your Epidemic, Strengthen Your Response: Developing a New HIV Surveillance Architecture to Guide HIV Resource Allocation and Target Decisions

To guide HIV prevention and treatment activities up to 2020, we need to generate and make better use of high quality HIV surveillance data. To highlight our surveillance needs, a special collection of papers in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance has been released under the title “Improving Global and National Responses to the HIV Epidemic Through High Quality HIV Surveillance Data.” We provide a summary of these papers and highlight methods for developing a new HIV surveillance architecture.

Where is the evidence? The use of routinely-collected patient data to retain adults on antiretroviral treatment in low and middle income countries-a state of the evidence review

Retention rates in antiretroviral treatment (ART) in low- and middle-income countries are suboptimal for meeting global "90-90-90" treatment targets. Interventions using routinely collected patient data to follow up with ART defaulters is recommended to improve retention; yet, little is documented on how these data are used in practice. This state of the evidence review summarizes how facilities and programmes use patient data to retain adults on ART in low- and middle-income countries, and what effect, if any, these interventions have on retention. The authors searched peer-reviewed and grey literature in PubMed, POPLINE, OVID, Google Scholar, and select webpages; screened publications for relevance; and applied eligibility criteria to select articles for inclusion. Over 4,000 records were found, of which 19 were eligible. Interventions assessed within the studies were sorted into three categories: patient tracing (18), data reviews (3), and improved data capture systems (9). Nine studies demonstrated increased retention or reduced lost to follow-up; however, the quality of evidence was weak. We recommend that future research investigates how various combinations of these interventions are being implemented and their effectiveness on ART retention across diverse country contexts, taking into account cultural, social and economic barriers and differences in countries' HIV epidemics and health information systems.