Progression Rates of LR-2 and LR-3 Observations on MRI to Higher LI-RADS Categories in Patients at High Risk for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Retrospective Study

Is concurrent LR-5 associated with a higher rate of hepatocellular carcinoma in LR-3 or LR-4 observations? An individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) does not consider factors extrinsic to the observation of interest, such as concurrent LR-5 observations.

PURPOSE

To evaluate whether the presence of a concurrent LR-5 observation is associated with a difference in the probability that LR-3 or LR-4 observations represent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) through an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis.

METHODS

Multiple databases were searched from 1/2014 to 2/2023 for studies evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of CT/MRI for HCC using LI-RADS v2014/2017/2018. The search strategy, study selection, and data collection process can be found at https://osf.io/rpg8x . Using a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), IPD were pooled across studies and modeled simultaneously with a one-stage meta-analysis approach to estimate positive predictive value (PPV) of LR-3 and LR-4 observations without and with concurrent LR-5 for the diagnosis of HCC. Risk of bias was assessed using a composite reference standard and Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2).

RESULTS

Twenty-nine studies comprising 2591 observations in 1456 patients (mean age 59 years, 1083 [74%] male) were included. 587/1960 (29.9%) LR-3 observations in 1009 patients had concurrent LR-5. The PPV for LR-3 observations with concurrent LR-5 was not significantly different from the PPV without LR-5 (45.4% vs 37.1%, p = 0.63). 264/631 (41.8%) LR-4 observations in 447 patients had concurrent LR-5. The PPV for LR-4 observations with concurrent LR-5 was not significantly different from LR-4 observations without concurrent LR-5 (88.6% vs 69.5%, p = 0.08). A sensitivity analysis for low-risk of bias studies (n = 9) did not differ from the primary analysis.

CONCLUSION

The presence of concurrent LR-5 was not significantly associated with differences in PPV for HCC in LR-3 or LR-4 observations, supporting the current LI-RADS paradigm, wherein the presence of synchronous LR-5 may not alter the categorization of LR-3 and LR-4 observations.

Long-term evolution of LR-2, LR-3 and LR-4 observations in HBV-related cirrhosis based on LI-RADS v2018 using gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI

PURPOSE

To investigate the long-term evolution of LR-2, LR-3 and LR-4 observations in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related cirrhosis based on LI-RADS v2018 and identify predictors of progression to a malignant category on serial gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (Gd-EOB-MRI).

METHODS

This retrospective study included 179 cirrhosis patients with untreated indeterminate observations who underwent Gd-EOB-MRI exams at baseline and during the follow-up period between June 2016 and December 2021. Two radiologists independently assessed the major features, ancillary features, and LI-RADS category of each observation at baseline and follow-up. In cases of disagreement, a third radiologist was consulted for consensus. Cumulative incidences for progression to a malignant category (LR-5 or LR-M) and to LR-4 or higher were analyzed for each index category using Kaplan‒Meier methods and compared using log-rank tests. The risk factors for malignant progression were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

A total of 213 observations, including 74 (34.7%) LR-2, 95 (44.6%) LR-3, and 44 (20.7%) LR-4, were evaluated. The overall cumulative incidence of progression to a malignant category was significantly higher for LR-4 observations than for LR-3 or LR-2 observations (each P < 0.001), and significantly higher for LR-3 observations than for LR-2 observations (P < 0.001); at 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-ups, the cumulative incidence of progression to a malignant category was 11.4%, 29.5%, and 39.3% for LR-4 observations, 0.0%, 8.5%, and 19.6% for LR-3 observations, and 0.0%, 0.0%, and 0.0% for LR-2 observations, respectively. The cumulative incidence of progression to LR-4 or higher was higher for LR-3 observations than for LR-2 observations (P < 0.001); at 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-ups, the cumulative incidence of progression to LR-4 or higher was 0.0%, 8.5%, and 24.6% for LR-3 observations, and 0.0%, 0.0%, and 0.0% for LR-2 observations, respectively. In multivariable analysis, nonrim arterial phase hyperenhancement (APHE) [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.13, 95% CI 1.04-4.36; P = 0.038], threshold growth (HR = 6.50, 95% CI 2.88-14.65; P <0.001), and HBP hypointensity (HR = 16.83, 95% CI 3.97-71.34; P <0.001) were significant independent predictors of malignant progression.

CONCLUSION

The higher LI-RADS v2018 categories had an increasing risk of progression to a malignant category during long-term evolution. Nonrim APHE, threshold growth, and HBP hypointensity were the imaging features that were significantly predictive of malignant progression.

Clinical outcomes of patients with Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System 3 or Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System 4 observations in patients with cirrhosis: A systematic review

Patients with indeterminate liver nodules, classified as LR-3 and LR-4 observations per the Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System, are at risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but risk estimates remain imprecise. We conducted a systematic review of Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases from inception to December 2021 to identify cohort studies examining HCC incidence among patients with LR-3 or LR-4 observations on computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Predictors of HCC were abstracted from each study, when available. Of 13 total studies, nine conducted LR-3 observation-level analyses, with the proportions of incident HCC ranging from 1.2% to 12.5% at 12 months and 4.2% to 44.4% during longer study follow-up. Among three studies with patient-level analyses, 8%-22.2% of patients with LR-3 lesions developed LR-4 observations and 11.1%-24.5% developed HCC. Among nine studies conducting LR-4 observation-level analyses, incident HCC ranged from 30.8% to 44.0% at 12 months and 30.9% to 71.0% during study follow-up; conversely, 6%-42% of observations were downgraded to LR-3 or lower. Patient-level factors associated with HCC included older age, male sex, higher alpha-fetoprotein levels, viral etiology, and prior history of HCC; observation-level factors included maximum diameter, threshold growth, T2 hyperintensity, and visibility on ultrasound. Studies were limited by small sample sizes, inclusion of patients with prior HCC, short follow-up duration, and failure to account for clustering of observations in patients or competing risks of transplantation and death. LR-3 and LR-4 observations have elevated but variable risks of HCC. Higher quality studies are necessary to identify high-risk patients who warrant close CT or MRI-based follow-up.

Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System categories: Long-term imaging outcomes in a prospective surveillance cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We assessed the imaging outcomes of Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) v2018 categories in prospective hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance cohort and determined imaging features significantly predictive of progression to a malignant LI-RADS category.

METHODS

The imaging outcomes of 120 patients (162 observations) prospectively enrolled between November 2011 and August 2012 were analysed according to LI-RADS v2018. Cumulative incidences for progression to a malignant category (LR-5 or LR-M) and LR-4 or higher were calculated for each baseline category and compared using log-rank tests. Clinical variables and imaging features significantly predictive of progression to a malignant category were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards modelling.

RESULTS

The 162 observations were initially categorized into 60 LR-2, 75 LR-3 and 27 LR-4. For LR-4 observations, the 1-year, 3-year and 5-year cumulative incidences of progression to a malignant category were 18.5% (95% confidence interval, 6.6-35.2%), 43.0% (23.1-61.5%) and 52.5% (25.9-73.5%), which were significantly higher than those of LR-2 and LR-3 (p  < .001). For LR-3, the 1-year, 3-year and 5-year cumulative incidences of progression to LR-4 or higher were 4.1% (1.1-10.4%), 13.9% (6.7-23.6%) and 23.1% (12.7-35.4%), which were significantly higher than that of LR-2 (p  = .009). In multivariable analysis, size ≥1.0 cm (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.58, 1.04-6.40) and nonrim arterial-phase hyperenhancement (HR = 2.45, 1.11-5.42) were significantly independently associated with progression to a malignant category.

CONCLUSION

Long-term imaging outcomes differed significantly according to LI-RADS category. Size ≥1.0 cm and nonrim arterial-phase hyperenhancement were imaging features significantly predictive of progression to a malignant category.