Targeting Fall Risk in CKD

Development and validation of prediction model for fall accidents among chronic kidney disease in the community

Background

The population with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has significantly heightened risk of fall accidents. The aim of this study was to develop a validated risk prediction model for fall accidents among CKD in the community.

Methods

Participants with CKD from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) were included. The study cohort underwent a random split into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 70 to 30%. Logistic regression and LASSO regression analyses were applied to screen variables for optimal predictors in the model. A predictive model was then constructed and visually represented in a nomogram. Subsequently, the predictive performance was assessed through ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis.

Result

A total of 911 participants were included, and the prevalence of fall accidents was 30.0% (242/911). Fall down experience, BMI, mobility, dominant handgrip, and depression were chosen as predictor factors to formulate the predictive model, visually represented in a nomogram. The AUC value of the predictive model was 0.724 (95% CI 0.679-0.769). Calibration curves and DCA indicated that the model exhibited good predictive performance.

Conclusion

In this study, we constructed a predictive model to assess the risk of falls among individuals with CKD in the community, demonstrating good predictive capability.

Association between falls in elderly and the number of chronic diseases and health-related behaviors based on CHARLS 2018: health status as a mediating variable

OBJECTIVE

Falling is one of the main causes of death and morbidity in the elderly. This study aims to explore the association between elderly patients with chronic diseases and their health-related behaviors and falls in the elderly, and to provide clues for the prevention and intervention of injuries caused by falls in the elderly.

METHODS

Based on the basic demographic characteristics data, number of chronic diseases, health-related behaviors, and physical and mental health data of 5867 elderly people aged 60 and above in the 2018 CHARLS data, this paper used ordered logit regression to analyze the correlation between chronic diseases and their health-related behaviors and falls of Chinese elderly. On this basis, it also distinguishes whether there is care or not, explores whether the related factors of falls of elderly people will be different, and tests the intermediary effect of health status to further explore its mechanism.

RESULTS

The number of chronic diseases and health-related behaviors in the four dimensions of sleeptime, drinking, smoking, and activity are significantly correlated with falls in the elderly. Among them, health status plays a significant mediating role in the relationship of the number of chronic diseases and sleeptime and activity on the falls of the elderly. In addition, compared with the elderly without care, the risk of falls in the elderly in care is only related to the number of chronic diseases and sleeptime, while the elderly without care is related to the number of chronic diseases and multiple factors such as smoking, drinking and activity.

CONCLUSION

Falls are significantly associated with chronic disease and health-related behaviors, while risk or protective factors for falls vary according to whether older adults are cared for. Therefore, targeted interventions can be made for the factors that affect the fall of the elderly according to different situations.

Associations Between Surrogates of Skeletal Muscle Mass and History of Bone Fracture in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: The Fukuoka Kidney disease Registry (FKR) Study

Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at increased risks of both sarcopenia and fragility fractures. However, information on the association between skeletal muscle mass (SMM) and the risk of bone fractures in patients with CKD is lacking. We performed a cross-sectional analysis of 4146 patients with CKD using the baseline dataset of the Fukuoka Kidney disease Registry Study, as a multicenter, prospective cohort study of pre-dialysis CKD patients. The main measure was estimated SMM (eSMM) calculated using an equation validated by bioelectrical impedance analysis with two independent datasets of 100 and 81 CKD patients. The main outcome was historical bone fractures. The associations between sex-specific quartiles (Q1-Q4) of eSMM and fracture history were assessed by logistic regression analyses. The prevalence of a history of fractures increased and eSMM decreased with progressive CKD stages. Among the 4146 patients, 249 had prior bone fractures, including 111 patients in Q1 (lowest quartile), 65 in Q2, 46 in Q3, and 27 in Q4 (highest quartile). A multivariable-adjusted model revealed that patients in Q1 had a significantly higher odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for bone fracture history than those in Q4 (reference): Q1, 2.77 (1.32-5.80); Q2, 1.95 (1.05-3.65); and Q3, 1.57 (0.90-2.75) (P-value for trend < 0.001). Similar associations were obtained when other skeletal muscle surrogates were applied: serum creatinine to serum cystatin C and daily urinary creatinine excretion. These results suggest that a lower eSMM is associated with an increased prevalence of historical bone fractures in pre-dialysis CKD patients.

Risk factors for high fall risk in elderly patients with chronic kidney disease

PURPOSE

Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) usually represent an aging population, and both older age and CKD are associated with a higher risk of falling. Studies on risk factors among subjects with CKD are lacking.

METHODS

Records of outpatients from one geriatric clinic in Turkey were retrospectively reviewed. A result of ≥ 13.5 s on the timed up and go (TUG) test was accepted as a high risk of falls. Independent predictors of an increased risk of falls among subjects with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate of < 60 mL/min/1.73 m²) were identified using logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Patients with CKD (n = 205), represented the 20.2% of the entire cohort and was identified as an independent predictor of increased fall risk (OR 2.59). Within the CKD cohort, serum folic acid levels and frailty were independent predictors of an increased risk of falls. The CKD/fall risk group was older, had a lower median years of education, lower vitamin D levels, and lower serum folic acid levels than the CKD/non-fall risk group. In addition to higher serum creatinine and potassium levels, the only significant difference between patients with CKD/fall risk and a matched non-CKD/fall risk was a lower median folic acid level in the former group.

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty and low folic acid levels are independently associated with an increased risk of falls among elderly outpatients with CKD. Prevention of frailty may reduce the risk of falls in these subjects. Possible benefit of folic acid supplementation requires further studies.