Cui PB, Gao L, Wang W. Epidemic spreading dynamics with drug resistance and heterogeneous contacts.
J Theor Biol 2018;
441:19-27. [PMID:
29305180 DOI:
10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.01.003]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2017] [Revised: 12/31/2017] [Accepted: 01/02/2018] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Drug resistance and strong contacts actually play crucial roles in epidemic spread in complex systems. Nevertheless, neither theoretical model or methodology is proposed to address this. We thus consider an edge-based epidemic spread model considering the two key ingredients, in which the contacts are grouped into two classes: strong contacts and normal ones. Next, we present a unified edge-based compartmental approach to the spread dynamics on Erdös-Rényi (ER) networks and validate its results by extensive numerical simulations. In case that epidemic is totally drug-resistant, we both numerically and theoretically show a continuous growth of epidemics with infection probability when number of strong contacts is not enough for the emergence of null threshold. If the epidemic owns partial resistance, we would observe evident discontinuous growth with infection probability (discontinuous transitions) and larger final epidemic sizes for few strong contacts, instead of emergence of null threshold with increase of strong contacts. Inhibiting effect of infection threshold, positive roles of strong contacts and strength of strong contacts in promoting outbreaks are also approved. Throughout this paper, we could drive exact predictions through the analytical approach, showing good agreements with numerical simulations.
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