A 5-Year Survival Prediction Model for Chronic Heart Failure Patients Induced by Coronary Heart Disease with Traditional Chinese Medicine Intervention

Objective

This study aimed to construct a 5-year survival prediction model of coronary heart disease (CHD) induced chronic heart failure (CHF), which is supported by the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) factor, and to verify the model.

Methods

Inpatients from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2017, in seven hospitals in Shandong Province were studied. The random number table was used to randomly divide the seven hospitals into two groups (training set and verification set). In the training set, the least absolute shrinkage selection operator regression was first used to screen the independent variables. Logistic regression was then applied to construct a survival prediction model. The following nomogram visualizes the prediction model results. Finally, C-indices, calibration curves, and decision curves were used to discriminate and calibrate the established model and evaluate its practicability in the clinic. Bootstrap resampling and the verification set were used for internal and external verification, respectively.

Results

A total of 424 eligible patients were included in the model construction and verification. In this 5-year survival prediction model of patients with CHF induced by CHD, eight independent predictors were included. The series of C-indices for the training set, bootstrap resamples, and verification set was 0.885, 0.867, and 0.835, respectively, demonstrating the credibility of our model. Additionally, the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and clinical decision curve analysis of the training and verification sets showed that this 5-year survival prediction model was good in discrimination, calibration, and clinical practicability.

Conclusion

This work highlights eight independent factors affecting 5-year mortality in patients with CHF induced by CHD after discharge and further helps reallocate medical resources rationally by precisely identifying high-risk groups. The constructed prediction model not only plays a credible role in prediction but also demonstrates TCM intervention as a protective factor for the 5-year death of patients with CHF induced by CHD, thereby advancing the use of TCM in CHF.

Noninvasive cardiovascular imaging for myocardial necrosis, viability, stunning and hibernation: evidence from an umbrella review encompassing 12 systematic reviews, 286 studies, and 201,680 patients

INTRODUCTION

The concomitant presence of myocardial necrosis with myocardial ischemia, stunning or hibernation may complicates appraisal of left ventricular (LV) function and patient management. Several imaging modalities have been proposed for the accurate assessment of myocardial necrosis, viability, stunning and hibernation, with mixed results. We aimed to review the evidence base on myocardial necrosis, stunning and hibernation by conducting an umbrella review (i.e. overview of systematic reviews).

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

We searched PubMed and The Cochrane Library for meta-analyses focusing on the diagnostic, prognostic, or management appraisal of myocardial necrosis, viability, stunning and hibernation. Diagnostic test accuracy, prognostic yield, and clinical outcomes were systematically abstracted from shortlisted reviews.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

From an initial set of 6069 citations, 12 systematic reviews were finally included, encompassing 286 studies and 201,680 patients. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) had favorable results in 4 reviews that focused on the diagnosis of myocardial stunning or hibernation in patients followed for 6±4 months after coronary revascularization (sensitivity 96% and specificity 91%). Positron emission tomography (PET), single photon emission tomography (SPECT) and CMR in 6 meta-analyses had each a significant and independent prognostic role for the prediction of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events in patients with follow-up of 2.8±1.7 years. Finally, 2 reviews with 2.3±1.1 years of follow-up showed moderate quality evidence in favor of coronary revascularization in patients with objective signs of myocardial viability.

CONCLUSIONS

The appraisal of myocardial necrosis and residual viability remains a cornerstone of the modern management of patients with CAD. Current imaging modalities (echocardiography, PET, SPECT and CMR) are widely used. Further trials using contemporary methods are warranted to further clarify the impact of viability assessment on patient management, and the cumulative risk of morbidity and mortality.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for critically ill patients with coronavirus-associated disease 2019: an updated perspective of the European experience

BACKGROUND

Infection due to severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), i.e. coronavirus-associated disease 2019 (COVID-2019), may occasionally lead to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), requiring in the most severe cases extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). Yet, limited data, if any, are currently available on the role of ECMO in critically ill patients with COVID-19. We aimed at providing a snapshot analysis of ECMO for COVID-19 in Europe.

METHODS

Freely available data on ECMO in COVID-19 patients reported by the European Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (EuroELSO) were extracted and analyzed after conversion into long format. The primary outcome was the incidence of death during ECMO. Bootstrapping and logistic regression were used for inferential estimates.

RESULTS

Details from a total of 333 patients treated in 90 institutions spanning 17 countries were obtained, with 22% women and mean age of 52 years. Death rate was 17.1% (95% confidence interval: 13.1% to 21.1%), even if significant between-center differences were found, with some institutions reporting 100% case fatality. Exploratory inferential analysis showed no nominally statistically significant association between death and gender (P=0.788), but a significant association was found with age, mainly due to increased case fatality in subjects >60 years (odds ratio: 4.80 [95% confidence interval 1.64 to 14.04], P=0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

ECMO may play an important role in critically ill patients with COVID-19 refractory to less invasive treatments. The increased risk of early death in older patients may be used to prioritize ECMO indication in resource-conscious settings, if confirmed externally.