CHA2DS2-VASc in the prediction of early atrial fibrillation relapses after electrical or pharmacological cardioversion

Risk Factors of Early Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence Following Electrical Cardioversion When Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction Is Preserved

Background and objectives: To identify clinical, echocardiographic, and laboratory parameters that affect the early recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) after restoring sinus rhythm (SR) by electrical cardioversion (ECV), and to determine whether left atrial (LA) strain, as a noninvasive indicator reflecting fibrosis, is associated with laboratory indicators affecting the development of fibrosis, interleukin 6 (IL-6) or tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α). Materials and Methods: The study included 92 persistent AF patients who underwent elective ECV. The effective maintenance of SR was evaluated after 40 ± 10 days of ECV. Echocardiography, inflammatory markers (high-sensitivity c-reactive protein (hs-CRP), IL-6, and TNF-α), and natriuretic peptides (N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and N-terminal pro a-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proANP)) were assessed. Results: After a 40 ± 10 days observation period, 51 patients (55.4%) were in SR. Patients with AF recurrence had a significantly longer duration of AF (p = 0.008) and of arterial hypertension (p = 0.035), lower LA ejection fraction (p = 0.009), lower LA strain (p < 0.0001), higher left ventricular global longitudinal strain (p = 0.001), and a higher E/e‘ ratio (p < 0.0001). LA strain was an independent predictor of early AF recurrence (OR: 0.65; 95% Cl 0.5−0.9, p = 0.004). LA strain < 11.85% predicted AF recurrence with 70% sensitivity and 88% specificity (AUC 0.855, 95% CI 0.77−0.94, p < 0.0001). LA strain demonstrated the association with NT-proBNP (r = −0.489, p < 0.0001) and NT-proANP (r = −0.378, p = 0.002), as well as with hs-CRP (r = −0.243, p = 0.04). Conclusions: LA strain appeared to be the most accurate predictor of early AF recurrence after ECV in patients with persistent AF. LA strain inversely correlated with NT-proBNP and NT-proANP, but no significant association with any of the inflammatory markers was identified.

Outcome Analysis in Elective Electrical Cardioversion of Atrial Fibrillation Patients: Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Prognostic Model

Background: The integrated approach to electrical cardioversion (EC) in atrial fibrillation (AF) is complex; candidates can resolve spontaneously while waiting for EC, and post-cardioversion recurrence is high. Thus, it is especially interesting to avoid the programming of EC in patients who would restore sinus rhythm (SR) spontaneously or present early recurrence. We have analyzed the whole elective EC of the AF process using machine-learning (ML) in order to enable a more realistic and detailed simulation of the patient flow for decision making purposes. Methods: The dataset consisted of electronic health records (EHRs) from 429 consecutive AF patients referred for EC. For analysis of the patient outcome, we considered five pathways according to restoring and maintaining SR: (i) spontaneous SR restoration, (ii) pharmacologic-cardioversion, (iii) direct-current cardioversion, (iv) 6-month AF recurrence, and (v) 6-month rhythm control. We applied ML classifiers for predicting outcomes at each pathway and compared them with the CHA2DS2-VASc and HATCH scores. Results: With the exception of pathway (iii), all ML models achieved improvements in comparison with CHA2DS2-VASc or HATCH scores (p < 0.01). Compared to the most competitive score, the area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC) was: 0.80 vs. 0.66 for predicting (i); 0.71 vs. 0.55 for (ii); 0.64 vs. 0.52 for (iv); and 0.66 vs. 0.51 for (v). For a threshold considered optimal, the empirical net reclassification index was: +7.8%, +47.2%, +28.2%, and +34.3% in favor of our ML models for predicting outcomes for pathways (i), (ii), (iv), and (v), respectively. As an example tool of generalizability of ML models, we deployed our algorithms in an open-source calculator, where the model would personalize predictions. Conclusions: An ML model improves the accuracy of restoring and maintaining SR predictions over current discriminators. The proposed approach enables a detailed simulation of the patient flow through personalized predictions.

Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence Prevention after Electrical Cardioversion in High-Risk Patients – Benefits of Non-Antiarrhythmic Drugs

Background:

Recurrence prevention after Atrial Fibrillation (AF) termination by Eelectrical Cardioversion (ECV) remains challenging. Increasing attention is paid to pathophysiological effects of non-Antiarrhythmic Drugs (non-AADs), nevertheless, with heterogeneous results.

Objective:

We evaluated the potential benefits of different non-AADs as adjunctive therapy to Antiarrhythmic Drugs (AADs) for AF recurrence prevention after sinus rhythm restoration by ECV in high-risk patients.

Methods:

The study was conducted among high-risk AF patients after successful ECV. Prescription of class IC or class III AAD was required. Data were acquired in a face-to-face baseline interview and 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-month follow-up interviews.

Results:

113 patients were included. Total AF recurrence rate reached 48.7%. Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitor (ACEI) or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) intake, compared with non-use, demonstrated AF recurrence rate reduction by 8.5% (46.3 vs. 54.8%), with odds ratio (OR) reduced by 28.9% (OR 0.711, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.310-1.631, p = 0.420). Among mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA) users, AF recurrence rate was reduced by 25.1% (29.6 vs. 54.7%) and OR by 65.1% (OR 0.349, 95%CI 0.138-0.884, p = 0.023). Present statin therapy reduced AF recurrence rate by 4.2% (46.8 vs. 51.0%) and OR by 15.5% (OR 0.845, 95%CI 0.402-1.774, p = 0.656). Diuretic use showed reduction of AF recurrence rate by 10.2% (41.7 vs. 51.9%) and OR by 33.9% (OR 0.661, 95%CI 0.297-1.469, p = 0.308).

Conclusion:

Non-AADs demonstrated practical benefits as adjunctive therapy to AADs for AF recurrence prevention after ECV in high-risk patients, with statistically significant results established for concomitant MRA intake.

Role for machine learning in sex-specific prediction of successful electrical cardioversion in atrial fibrillation?

Objective

Electrical cardioversion is frequently performed to restore sinus rhythm in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). However, AF recurs in many patients and identifying the patients who benefit from electrical cardioversion is difficult. The objective was to develop sex-specific prediction models for successful electrical cardioversion and assess the potential of machine learning methods in comparison with traditional logistic regression.

Methods

In a retrospective cohort study, we examined several candidate predictors, including comorbidities, biochemistry, echocardiographic data, and medication. The outcome was successful cardioversion, defined as normal sinus rhythm immediately after the electrical cardioversion and no documented recurrence of AF within 3 months after. We used random forest and logistic regression models for sex-specific prediction.

Results

The cohort comprised 332 female and 790 male patients with persistent AF who underwent electrical cardioversion. Cardioversion was successful in 44.9% of the women and 49.9% of the men. The prediction errors of the models were high for both women (41.0% for machine learning and 48.8% for logistic regression) and men (46.0% for machine learning and 44.8% for logistic regression). Discrimination was modest for both machine learning (0.59 for women and 0.56 for men) and logistic regression models (0.60 for women and 0.59 for men), although the models were well calibrated.

Conclusions

Sex-specific machine learning and logistic regression models showed modest predictive performance for successful electrical cardioversion. Identifying patients who will benefit from cardioversion remains challenging in clinical practice. The high recurrence rate calls for thoroughly informed shared decision-making for electrical cardioversion.

CHA2DS2-VASc score predicts atrial fibrillation recurrence after cardioversion: Systematic review and individual patient pooled meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite progresses in the treatment of the thromboembolic risk related to atrial fibrillation (AF), the management of recurrences remains a challenge.

HYPOTHESIS

To assess if congestive heart failure or left ventricular systolic dysfunction (CHA2 DS2 -VASc) score is predictive of early arrhythmia recurrence after AF cardioversion.

METHODS

Systematic review and individual patient pooled meta-analysis following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

observational trials in patients with AF undergoing cardioversion, available data on recurrence of AF and available data on CHA2 DS2 -VASc score. Clinical studies of interest were retrieved by PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Biomed Central. Seven authors were contacted for joining the patient level meta-analysis, and three shared data regarding anthropometric measurements, risk factors, major comorbidities, and CHA2 DS2 -VASc score. The primary outcome was the recurrence of AF after cardioversion in patients free from antiarrhythmic prophylaxis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was performed.

RESULTS

Overall, we collect data of 2889 patients: 61% were male, 50% with hypertension, 12% with diabetes, and 23% with history of ischemic heart disease. The median CHA2DS2-VASc score was 2.. At the multivariate analysis, chronic kidney disease (odds ratio [OR] 1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-3.27; P = 0.01), peripheral artery disease (OR 1.65; 95% CI 1.23-2.19; P < 0,0001), previous use of beta blockers (OR 1.5; 95% CI 1.19-1.88; P < 0.0001), and CHA2DS2-VASc score > 2 (OR 1.37; 95% CI 1.1-1.68; P = 0.002) were independent predictors of early recurrence of AF.

CONCLUSIONS

CHA2DS2-VASc score predicts early recurrence of AF in the first 30 days after electrical or pharmacological cardioversion. Protocol registration PROSPERO (CRD42017075107).

From head to toe: Sex and gender differences in the treatment of ischemic cerebral disease

Stroke is a major cause of mortality and morbidity, particularly in the older ages. Women have a longer life expectancy and are more likely to experience stroke than men. Interestingly, the increased risk of ischemic stroke in women seems to be independent from age or classical cardiovascular risk factors. Notwithstanding the fact that stroke outcomes and survival are usually poorer in women, current evidence suggests that thrombolysis, antiplatelet and anticoagulant therapies are more beneficial in women than in men. A possible explanation of this paradox might be that females are often undertreated and they have fewer chances to be submitted to an effective and timely treatment for stroke than the male counterpart. The first step in the attempt to solve this obvious discrimination is surely to emphasize any reasons for differences in the therapeutic approach in relation to gender and then to denounce the lack of a sustainable motivation for them. In this article, we aimed to review the existing literature about gender-related differences on efficacy, administration and side effects of the most common drugs used for the treatment of ischemic stroke. The most striking result was the evidence that the therapeutic approach for stroke is often different according to patients' gender with a clear detrimental prognostic effect for women. A major effort is necessary to overcome this problem in order to ensure equal right to treatment without any sexual discrimination.

Serum Uric Acid, Kidney Function and Acute Ischemic Stroke Outcomes in Elderly Patients: A Single-Cohort, Perspective Study

Chronic kidney disease and hyperuricemia have been associated to an increased risk and a worse prognosis in acute ischemic stroke. Several mechanisms, including platelet dysfunction, coagulation disorders, endothelial dysfunction, inflammation, and an increased risk of atrial fibrillation could be implicated. The role of serum uric acid in this setting is still object of debate. We enrolled all the consecutive patients admitted to our department for acute ischemic stroke. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the risk of in-hospital death considering serum uric acid levels and all the comorbidities. In the overall sample, hyperuricemia was independently associated to an increased risk of in-hospital mortality. This effect was stronger in patients with chronic kidney disease while, in the group of patients with normal renal function, the relationship between hyperuricemia and increased stroke mortality was not confirmed. Hyperuricemia could be associated to higher in-hospital mortality for ischemic stroke among elderly patients when affected by kidney disease. Survival does not seem to be affected by hyperuricemia in patients with normal kidney function.

Atrial fibrillation after electrical cardioversion in elderly patients: a role for arterial stiffness? Results from a preliminary study

Background and aims

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most frequent arrhythmia of the elderly, and electrical cardioversion (ECV) is a common procedure, although incidence of recurrences remains high. We evaluated the possible association between arterial stiffness (AS) and the persistence or recurrence of AF in elderly patients after ECV.

Methods

We enrolled all subjects undergoing ECV over a 9-month period. AS was evaluated with the cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI). Patients were then visited at follow-up (on average at 6 months).

Results

Thirty-one patients (age 78 ± 7 years; men 67.7 %; CHA₂DS₂-VASc 4.1 ± 1.6; AF length >2 months 51.6 %; CAVI 9.9 ± 1.6) underwent ECV. At follow-up, sinus rhythm was recorded in 16 (51.6 %) patients. At multivariate analysis, the presence of AF was directly associated with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score and CAVI. Amiodarone therapy reduced the risk of relapsed AF.

Conclusions

In elderly AF patients treated with ECV, AS at baseline seems to predict AF at follow-up.

CHA2 DS2 VASc score predicts unsuccessful electrical cardioversion in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia occurring in 2% of the population. It is known that AF increases morbidity and limits quality of life. The CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score (congestive heart failure/left ventricular dysfunction, hypertension, age ≥75 (doubled), diabetes, stroke (doubled), vascular disease, age 65-74 and sex category (female)) is widely used to assess thrombotic complications. The CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score was not used until now in predicting the effectiveness of electrical cardioversion.

AIM

To assess the value of CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score in predicting unsuccessful electrical cardioversion.

METHODS

We analysed 258 consecutive patients with persistent AF who underwent electrical cardioversion between January 2012 and April 2016 in a Cardiology University Centre in Poland.

RESULTS

Out of 3500 hospitalised patients with AF, 258 (mean age 64 ± 11 years, 64% men) underwent electrical cardioversion. The CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score in analysed population (258 patients) was 2.5 ± 1.7 (range 0-8), and the HAS-BLED (hypertension, abnormal liver or renal function, stroke, bleeding, labile international normalised ratio, elderly, drugs or alcohol) was 1 ± 0.9 (range 0-4). Electrical cardioversion was unsuccessful in 12%. Factors associated with unsuccessful cardioversion were age (P = 0.0005), history of ischaemic stroke (P = 0.04), male gender (P = 0.01) and CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score (P = 0.002). The CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score in patients who had unsuccessful cardioversion was higher compared to patients who had successful cardioversion - 3.5 versus 2.4 (P = 0.001). In the logistic regression model, if the CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score increases by 1, the odds of unsuccessful cardioversion increase by 39% (odds ratio (OR) 1.39; confidence interval (CI): 1.12-1.71; P = 0.002). The odds of unsuccessful cardioversion are three times higher in patients with a CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score ≥ 2 than in patients with a CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score of 0 or 1 (OR 3.06; CI: 1.03-9.09; P = 0.044).

CONCLUSION

The CHA₂ DS₂ VASc score routinely used in thromboembolic risk assessment may be a simple, easy and reliable scoring system that can be used to predict unsuccessful electrical cardioversion.

Charlson comorbidity index as a predictor of in-hospital death in acute ischemic stroke among very old patients: a single-cohort perspective study

Chronic diseases are increasing worldwide. Association of two or more chronic conditions is related with poor health status and reduced life expectancy, particularly among elderly patients. Comorbidities represent a risk factor for adverse events in several critical illnesses. We aimed to evaluate if elderly patients are affected by multiple chronic pathologies, assessed by Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), showed a reduced in-hospital survival after ischemic stroke. In a 3-year period, we evaluated all the subjects admitted to our internal medicine department for ischemic stroke. Age, sex, NIHSS score and all the comorbidities were recorded. Days of hospitalization, hospital-related infections and in-hospital mortality were also assessed. For each patient, we evaluated CCI, obtaining four classes: group 1 (CCI: 2-3), group 2 (CCI: 4-5), group 3 (CCI: 6-7) and group 4 (CCI: ≥8). Survival was evaluated with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. The complete model considered in-hospital death as the main outcome, days of hospitalization as the time variable and CCI as the main predictor, adjusting for NIHSS, sex and nosocomial infections. Patients in CCI group 3 and 4 had an increased risk of in-hospital mortality, independently of NIHSS, sex and nosocomial infections. Elderly patients with multiple comorbidities have higher risk of in-hospital death when affected by ischemic stroke.