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Horpiencharoen W, Marshall JC, Muylaert RL, John RS, Hayman DTS. Impact of infectious diseases on wild bovidae populations in Thailand: insights from population modelling and disease dynamics. J R Soc Interface 2024; 21:20240278. [PMID: 38955228 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2024.0278] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2023] [Accepted: 06/10/2024] [Indexed: 07/04/2024] Open
Abstract
The wildlife and livestock interface is vital for wildlife conservation and habitat management. Infectious diseases maintained by domestic species may impact threatened species such as Asian bovids, as they share natural resources and habitats. To predict the population impact of infectious diseases with different traits, we used stochastic mathematical models to simulate the population dynamics over 100 years for 100 times in a model gaur (Bos gaurus) population with and without disease. We simulated repeated introductions from a reservoir, such as domestic cattle. We selected six bovine infectious diseases; anthrax, bovine tuberculosis, haemorrhagic septicaemia, lumpy skin disease, foot and mouth disease and brucellosis, all of which have caused outbreaks in wildlife populations. From a starting population of 300, the disease-free population increased by an average of 228% over 100 years. Brucellosis with frequency-dependent transmission showed the highest average population declines (-97%), with population extinction occurring 16% of the time. Foot and mouth disease with frequency-dependent transmission showed the lowest impact, with an average population increase of 200%. Overall, acute infections with very high or low fatality had the lowest impact, whereas chronic infections produced the greatest population decline. These results may help disease management and surveillance strategies support wildlife conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wantida Horpiencharoen
- Molecular Epidemiology and Public Health Laboratory, Hopkirk Research Institute, Massey University, Palmerston North 4472, New Zealand
| | - Jonathan C Marshall
- Molecular Epidemiology and Public Health Laboratory, Hopkirk Research Institute, Massey University, Palmerston North 4472, New Zealand
| | - Renata L Muylaert
- Molecular Epidemiology and Public Health Laboratory, Hopkirk Research Institute, Massey University, Palmerston North 4472, New Zealand
| | - Reju Sam John
- Molecular Epidemiology and Public Health Laboratory, Hopkirk Research Institute, Massey University, Palmerston North 4472, New Zealand
| | - David T S Hayman
- Molecular Epidemiology and Public Health Laboratory, Hopkirk Research Institute, Massey University, Palmerston North 4472, New Zealand
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Chanchaidechachai T, Saatkamp HW, Hogeveen H, de Jong MCM, Fischer EAJ. Evaluation of foot and mouth disease control measures: Simulating two endemic areas of Thailand. Prev Vet Med 2023; 220:106045. [PMID: 37866130 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.106045] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2023] [Revised: 09/25/2023] [Accepted: 10/08/2023] [Indexed: 10/24/2023]
Abstract
Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an important livestock disease in Thailand, with outbreaks occurring every year. However, the effects of FMD control measures in Thailand have received little research attention. Epidemiological models have been widely used to evaluate FMD outbreak control, but such a model has never been developed for Thailand. We constructed a stochastic between-farm transmission model to evaluate FMD control measures. The epidemiological unit of the model was the farm, which could be in different states: susceptible, latent, undetected infectious, detected infectious and recovered. The between-farm transmission was calculated by the sum of distance-dependent transmission and trade network transmission using parameters derived from FMD outbreaks in 2016-2017. We used this model to simulate the outbreaks with and without the implementation of the following control measures: culling all animals on infected farms, ring vaccination, animal movement restrictions and isolation of infected farms. The control measures were evaluated by estimating the number of secondarily infected farms and the outbreak duration for each scenario. The model was simulated in two study areas located in the Lamphaya Klang subdistrict (high farm density) and the Bo Phloi district (low farm density). The effects of control measures differed between the two study areas. When farm density was high, rigid control measures were required to prevent a major outbreak. Among all options, culling the animals on infected farms resulted in the lowest number of infected farms and the shortest outbreak duration. In contrast, for an area with a low farm density, less stringent control measures were sufficient to control the usually minor outbreaks. The results indicate that different areas require a different approach to control an outbreak of FMD.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thanicha Chanchaidechachai
- Business Economics Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands; Research Unit of Data Innovation for Livestock, Department of Veterinary Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand.
| | - Helmut W Saatkamp
- Business Economics Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Henk Hogeveen
- Business Economics Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Mart C M de Jong
- Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Egil A J Fischer
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Division Farm Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Zaheer MU, Salman MD, Steneroden KK, Magzamen SL, Weber SE, Case S, Rao S. Challenges to the Application of Spatially Explicit Stochastic Simulation Models for Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control in Endemic Settings: A Systematic Review. COMPUTATIONAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN MEDICINE 2020; 2020:7841941. [PMID: 33294003 PMCID: PMC7700052 DOI: 10.1155/2020/7841941] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2020] [Revised: 10/20/2020] [Accepted: 10/30/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Simulation modeling has become common for estimating the spread of highly contagious animal diseases. Several models have been developed to mimic the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in specific regions or countries, conduct risk assessment, analyze outbreaks using historical data or hypothetical scenarios, assist in policy decisions during epidemics, formulate preparedness plans, and evaluate economic impacts. Majority of the available FMD simulation models were designed for and applied in disease-free countries, while there has been limited use of such models in FMD endemic countries. This paper's objective was to report the findings from a study conducted to review the existing published original research literature on spatially explicit stochastic simulation (SESS) models of FMD spread, focusing on assessing these models for their potential use in endemic settings. The goal was to identify the specific components of endemic FMD needed to adapt these SESS models for their potential application in FMD endemic settings. This systematic review followed the PRISMA guidelines, and three databases were searched, which resulted in 1176 citations. Eighty citations finally met the inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis, identifying nine unique SESS models. These SESS models were assessed for their potential application in endemic settings. The assessed SESS models can be adapted for use in FMD endemic countries by modifying the underlying code to include multiple cocirculating serotypes, routine prophylactic vaccination (RPV), and livestock population dynamics to more realistically mimic the endemic characteristics of FMD. The application of SESS models in endemic settings will help evaluate strategies for FMD control, which will improve livestock health, provide economic gains for producers, help alleviate poverty and hunger, and will complement efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Muhammad Usman Zaheer
- Animal Population Health Institute, Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
- FMD Project Office, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, ASI Premises, NARC Gate # 2, Park Road, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
| | - Mo D. Salman
- Animal Population Health Institute, Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
| | - Kay K. Steneroden
- Animal Population Health Institute, Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
| | - Sheryl L. Magzamen
- Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
| | - Stephen E. Weber
- Animal Population Health Institute, Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
| | - Shaun Case
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Walter Scott, Jr. College of Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80521, USA
| | - Sangeeta Rao
- Animal Population Health Institute, Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
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Cai C, Li H, Edwards J, Hawkins C, Robertson ID. Meta-analysis on the efficacy of routine vaccination against foot and mouth disease (FMD) in China. Prev Vet Med 2014; 115:94-100. [PMID: 24768436 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2014.03.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2013] [Revised: 03/08/2014] [Accepted: 03/22/2014] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
Foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks have been reported in China for many years. Recently, due to the rapid economic development, the price of meat and its demand have grown quickly. This trend has resulted in an increase in the number of livestock moving from south-east Asian countries into China. Foot and mouth disease is becoming one of the most important trans-boundary animal diseases affecting the livelihood of livestock owners in China. To contribute to the long term goal to control and eradicate FMD from China, the Chinese government has adopted a series of control measures which includes compulsory routine vaccination against the disease. In this paper, the surveillance results of the routine vaccination programme were systemically reviewed. The results from 28 published papers were combined and analysed through a meta-analysis approach. The results of the meta-analysis indicated that the vaccination programme has been very successful in China with more than 70% of animals protected against serotypes Asia-1 and O.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chang Cai
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Murdoch University, Western Australia 6150, Australia.
| | - Huachun Li
- Yunnan Animal Science and Veterinary Institute, Kunming City, Yunnan Province 650224, China
| | - John Edwards
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Murdoch University, Western Australia 6150, Australia; Food and Agriculture Organisation, ECTAD Office, Beijing 100600, China
| | - Chris Hawkins
- Department of Agriculture and Food Western Australia, Moora 6510, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Ian D Robertson
- College of Veterinary Medicine, Murdoch University, Western Australia 6150, Australia
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Epidemiological simulation modeling and spatial analysis for foot-and-mouth disease control strategies: a comprehensive review. Anim Health Res Rev 2011; 12:225-34. [PMID: 22152294 DOI: 10.1017/s146625231100017x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most serious transboundary, contagious viral diseases of cloven-hoofed livestock, because it can spread rapidly with high morbidity rates when introduced into disease-free herds or areas. Epidemiological simulation modeling can be developed to study the hypothetical spread of FMD and to evaluate potential disease control strategies that can be implemented to decrease the impact of an outbreak or to eradicate the virus from an area. Spatial analysis, a study of the distributions of events in space, can be applied to an area to investigate the spread of animal disease. Hypothetical FMD outbreaks can be spatially analyzed to evaluate the effect of the event under different control strategies. The main objective of this paper is to review FMD-related articles on FMD epidemiology, epidemiological simulation modeling and spatial analysis with the focus on disease control. This review will contribute to the development of models used to simulate FMD outbreaks under various control strategies, and to the application of spatial analysis to assess the outcome of FMD spread and its control.
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