Ensuring uninterrupted supplies of antiretroviral drugs in resource-poor settings: an example from Malawi

"The number of clients is increasing but the supplies are reducing": provider strategies for responding to chronic antiretroviral (ARV) medicines stock-outs in resource-limited settings: a qualitative study from Uganda

Background

Despite the increasing frequency of ARV medicines stock-outs in Sub-Saharan Africa, there is little research inquiring into the mitigation strategies devised by frontline health facilities. Many previous studies have focused on ‘upstream’ or national-level drivers of ARVs stock-outs with less empirical attention devoted ‘down-stream’ or at the facility-level. The objective of this study was to examine the strategies devised by health facilities in Uganda to respond to the chronic stock-outs of ARVs.

Methods

This was a qualitative research design nested within a larger mixed-methods study. We purposively selected 16 health facilities from across Uganda (to achieve diversity with regard to; level of care (primary/ tertiary), setting (rural/urban) and geographic sub-region (northern/ central/western). We conducted 76 Semi-structured interviews with ART clinic managers, clinicians and pharmacists in the selected health facilities supplemented by on-site observations and documentary reviews. Data were analyzed by coding and thematic analyses.

Results

Participants reported that facility-level contributors to stock-outs include untimely orders of drugs from suppliers and inaccurate quantification of ARV medicine needs due to a paucity of ART program data. Internal stock management solutions for mitigating stock-outs which emerged include the substitution of ARV medicines which were out of stock, overstocking selected medicines and the use of recently expired drugs. The external solutions for mitigating stock-outs which were identified include ‘borrowing’ of ARVs from peer-providers, re-distributing stock across regions and upward referrals of patients. Systemic drivers of stock-outs were identified. These include the supply of drugs with a short shelf life, oversupply and undersupply of ARV medicines and migration pressures on the available ARVs stock at case-study facilities.

Conclusion

Health facilities devised internal stock management strategies and relied on peer-provider networks for ARV medicines during stock-out events. Our study underscores the importance of devising interventions aimed at improving Uganda’s medicines supply chain systems in the quest to reduce the frequency of ARV medicines stock-outs at the front-line level of service delivery. Further research is recommended on the effect of substituting ARV medicines on patient outcomes.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-019-4137-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Stock-outs of antiretroviral and tuberculosis medicines in South Africa: A national cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND

HIV and TB programs have rapidly scaled-up over the past decade in Sub-Saharan Africa and uninterrupted supplies of those medicines are critical to their success. However, estimates of stock-outs are largely unknown. This survey aimed to estimate the extent of stock-outs of antiretroviral and TB medicines in public health facilities across South Africa, which has the world's largest antiretroviral treatment (ART) program and a rising multidrug-resistant TB epidemic.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional telephonic survey (October-December 2015) of public health facilities. Facilities were asked about the prevalence of stock-outs on the day of the survey and in the preceding three months, their duration and impact.

RESULTS

Nationwide, of 3547 eligible health facilities, 79% (2804) could be reached telephonically. 88% (2463) participated and 4% (93) were excluded as they did not provide ART or TB treatment. Of the 2370 included facilities, 20% (485) reported a stock-out of at least 1 ARV and/or TB-related medicine on the day of contact and 36% (864) during the three months prior to contact, ranging from 74% (163/220) of health facilities in Mpumalanga to 12% (32/261) in the Western Cape province. These 864 facilities reported 1475 individual stock-outs, with one to fourteen different medicines out of stock per facility. Information on impact was provided in 98% (1449/1475) of stock-outs: 25% (366) resulted in a high impact outcome, where patients left the facility without medicine or were provided with an incomplete regimen. Of the 757 stock-outs that were resolved 70% (527) lasted longer than one month.

INTERPRETATION

There was a high prevalence of stock-outs nationwide. Large interprovincial differences in stock-out occurrence, duration, and impact suggest differences in provincial ability to prevent, mitigate and cope within the same framework. End-user monitoring of the supply chain by patients and civil society has the potential to increase transparency and complement public sector monitoring systems.

Act local, think global: how the Malawi experience of scaling up antiretroviral treatment has informed global policy

The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Malawi was based on a public health approach adapted to its resource-poor setting, with principles and practices borrowed from the successful tuberculosis control framework. From 2004 to 2015, the number of new patients started on ART increased from about 3000 to over 820,000. Despite being a small country, Malawi has made a significant contribution to the 15 million people globally on ART and has also contributed policy and service delivery innovations that have supported international guidelines and scale up in other countries. The first set of global guidelines for scaling up ART released by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2002 focused on providing clinical guidance. In Malawi, the ART guidelines adopted from the outset a more operational and programmatic approach with recommendations on health systems and services that were needed to deliver HIV treatment to affected populations. Seven years after the start of national scale-up, Malawi launched a new strategy offering all HIV-infected pregnant women lifelong ART regardless of the CD4-cell count, named Option B+. This strategy was subsequently incorporated into a WHO programmatic guide in 2012 and WHO ART guidelines in 2013, and has since then been adopted by the majority of countries worldwide. In conclusion, the Malawi experience of ART scale-up has become a blueprint for a public health response to HIV and has informed international efforts to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030.

Scaling-up antiretroviral therapy in Malawi

Problem

In Malawi, health-system constraints meant that only a fraction of people infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and in immediate need of antiretroviral treatment (ART) received treatment.

Approach

In 2004, the Malawian Ministry of Health launched plans to scale-up ART nationwide, adhering to the principle of equity to ensure fair geographical access to therapy. A public health approach was used with standardized training and treatment and regular supervision and monitoring of the programme.

Local setting

Before the scale-up, an estimated 930 000 people in Malawi were HIV-infected, with 170 000 in immediate need of ART. About 3000 patients were on ART in nine clinics.

Relevant changes

By December 2015, cumulatively 872 567 patients had been started on ART from 716 clinics, following national treatment protocols and using the standard monitoring system.

Lessons learnt

Strong national leadership allowed the ministry of health to implement a uniform system for scaling-up ART and provided benchmarks for implementation on the ground. New systems of training staff and accrediting health facilities enabled task-sharing and decentralization to peripheral health centres and a standardized approach to starting and monitoring ART. A system of quarterly supervision and monitoring, into which operational research was embedded, ensured stocks of drug supplies at facilities and adherence to national treatment guidelines.

Implementation of repeat HIV testing during pregnancy in Kenya: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Repeat HIV testing in late pregnancy has the potential to decrease rates of mother-to-child transmission of HIV by identifying mothers who seroconvert after having tested negative for HIV in early pregnancy. Despite being national policy in Kenya, the available data suggest that implementation rates are low.

METHODS

We conducted 20 in-depth semi-structured interviews with healthcare providers and managers to explore barriers and enablers to implementation of repeat HIV testing guidelines for pregnant women. Participants were from the Nyanza region of Kenya and were purposively selected to provide variation in socio-demographics and job characteristics. Interview transcripts were coded and analyzed in Dedoose software using a thematic analysis approach. Four themes were identified a priori using Ferlie and Shortell's Framework for Change and additional themes were allowed to emerge from the data.

RESULTS

Participants identified barriers and enablers at the client, provider, facility, and health system levels. Key barriers at the client level from the perspective of providers included late initial presentation to antenatal care and low proportions of women completing the recommended four antenatal visits. Barriers to offering repeat HIV testing for providers included heavy workloads, time limitations, and failing to remember to check for retest eligibility. At the facility level, inconsistent volume of clients and lack of space required for confidential HIV retesting were cited as barriers. Finally, at the health system level, there were challenges relating to the HIV test kit supply chain and the design of nationally standardized antenatal patient registers. Enablers to improving the implementation of repeat HIV testing included client dissemination of the benefits of antenatal care through word-of-mouth, provider cooperation and task shifting, and it was suggested that use of an electronic health record system could provide automatic reminders for retest eligibility.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights some important barriers to improving HIV retesting rates among pregnant women who attend antenatal clinics in the Nyanza region of Kenya at the client, provider, facility, and health system levels. To successfully implement Kenya's national repeat HIV testing guidelines during pregnancy, it is essential that these barriers be addressed and enablers capitalized on through a multi-faceted intervention program.

Opportunities for improving the efficiency of paediatric HIV treatment programmes

Objectives:

To conduct two economic analyses addressing whether to: routinely monitor HIV-infected children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinically or with laboratory tests; continue or stop cotrimoxazole prophylaxis when children become stabilized on ART.

Design and methods:

The ARROW randomized trial investigated alternative strategies to deliver paediatric ART and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis in 1206 Ugandan/Zimbabwean children. Incremental cost-effectiveness and value of implementation analyses were undertaken. Scenario analyses investigated whether laboratory monitoring (CD4⁺ tests for efficacy monitoring; haematology/biochemistry for toxicity) could be tailored and targeted to be delivered cost-effectively. Cotrimoxazole use was examined in malaria-endemic and non-endemic settings.

Results:

Using all trial data, clinical monitoring delivered similar health outcomes to routine laboratory monitoring, but at a reduced cost, so was cost-effective. Continuing cotrimoxazole improved health outcomes at reduced costs. Restricting routine CD4⁺ monitoring to after 52 weeks following ART initiation and removing toxicity testing was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $6084 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) across all age groups, but was much lower for older children (12+ years at initiation; incremental cost-effectiveness ratio = $769/QALY). Committing resources to improve cotrimoxazole implementation appears cost-effective. A healthcare system that could pay $600/QALY should be willing to spend up to $12.0 per patient-year to ensure continued provision of cotrimoxazole.

Conclusion:

Clinically driven monitoring of ART is cost-effective in most circumstances. Routine laboratory monitoring is generally not cost-effective at current prices, except possibly CD4⁺ testing amongst adolescents initiating ART. Committing resources to ensure continued provision of cotrimoxazole in health facilities is more likely to represent an efficient use of resources.

Implementation of provider-based electronic medical records and improvement of the quality of data in a large HIV program in Sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction

Starting in June 2010 the Infectious Diseases Institute (IDI) clinic (a large urban HIV out-patient facility) switched to provider-based Electronic Medical Records (EMR) from paper EMR entered in the database by data-entry clerks. Standardized clinics forms were eliminated but providers still fill free text clinical notes in physical patients’ files. The objective of this study was to compare the rate of errors in the database before and after the introduction of the provider-based EMR.

Methods and Findings

Data in the database pre and post provider-based EMR was compared with the information in the patients’ files and classified as correct, incorrect, and missing. We calculated the proportion of incorrect, missing and total error for key variables (toxicities, opportunistic infections, reasons for treatment change and interruption). Proportions of total errors were compared using chi-square test. A survey of the users of the EMR was also conducted. We compared data from 2,382 visits (from 100 individuals) of a retrospective validation conducted in 2007 with 34,957 visits (from 10,920 individuals) of a prospective validation conducted in April–August 2011. The total proportion of errors decreased from 66.5% in 2007 to 2.1% in 2011 for opportunistic infections, from 51.9% to 3.5% for ART toxicity, from 82.8% to 12.5% for reasons for ART interruption and from 94.1% to 0.9% for reasons for ART switch (all P<0.0001). The survey showed that 83% of the providers agreed that provider-based EMR led to improvement of clinical care, 80% reported improved access to patients’ records, and 80% appreciated the automation of providers’ tasks.

Conclusions

The introduction of provider-based EMR improved the quality of data collected with a significant reduction in missing and incorrect information. The majority of providers and clients expressed satisfaction with the new system. We recommend the use of provider-based EMR in large HIV programs in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Pilot study of single-use obstetric emergency medical kits to reduce maternal mortality

OBJECTIVE

To describe the experience at a single facility regarding single-use emergency medication kits to treat obstetric emergencies in a resource-poor setting.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted between October 2009 and October 2010 using data from the medical records of all patients treated with a single-use obstetric emergency medical kit (E-kit) during admission at the Riley Mother and Baby Hospital Wing, Eldoret, Kenya. Descriptive analyses were performed to quantify proportions of emergencies treated using E-kits in the first year of implementation. Summary statistics regarding maternal mortality from October 2008 to October 2010 were also retrieved to evaluate differences in the maternal mortality rates in the year of E-kit implementation and the year preceding implementation in order to estimate maternal mortalities averted with E-kit implementation.

RESULTS

In the first year of implementation, 192 patients were treated using E-kits. Overall, 144 kits were used for treating postpartum hemorrhage, 52 for treating severe pre-eclampsia/eclampsia, and 1 for treating cardiopulmonary shock. There was a 30% reduction in maternal mortality ratio with E-kit implementation; however, results did not reach statistical significance.

CONCLUSION

The results indicate that single-use E-kits may help to achieve a significant reduction in hospital rates of maternal mortality.

Simplified methods of determining treatment retention in Malawi: ART cohort reports vs. pharmacy stock cards

SETTING

Rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has challenged the health system in Malawi to monitor large numbers of patients effectively.

OBJECTIVE

To compare two methods of determining retention on treatment: quarterly ART clinic data aggregation vs. pharmacy stock cards.

DESIGN

Between October 2010 and March 2011, data on ART outcomes were extracted from monitoring tools at five facilities. Pharmacy data on ART consumption were extracted. Workload for each method was observed and timed. We used intraclass correlation and Bland-Altman plots to compare the agreeability of both methods to determine treatment retention.

RESULTS

There is wide variability between ART clinic cohort data and pharmacy data to determine treatment retention due to divergence in data at sites with large numbers of patients. However, there is a non-significant trend towards agreeability between the two methods (intraclass correlation coefficient > 0.9; P > 0.05). Pharmacy stock card monitoring is more time-efficient than quarterly ART data aggregation (81 min vs. 573 min).

CONCLUSION

In low-resource settings, pharmacy records could be used to improve drug forecasting and estimate ART retention in a more time-efficient manner than quarterly data aggregation; however, a necessary precondition would be capacity building around pharmacy data management, particularly for large-sized cohorts.

How operational research influenced the scale up of antiretroviral therapy in Malawi

The national scale up of antiretroviral therapy in Malawi is based on a public health approach, with principles and practices borrowed from the successful World Health Organization "DOTS" tuberculosis control framework. The scale up of antiretroviral therapy was under-pinned by a very strong monitoring and evaluation system, which was used to audit the scale up approach and conduct operational research to answer relevant questions. Examples of research included:- i) access to antiretroviral therapy, populations and social groups served, and how the different groups fared with regard to outcomes; ii) determining whether the quality of data at antiretroviral therapy sites was adequate and whether external supervision was needed; iii) finding feasible ways of reducing the high early mortality in patients starting treatment in both Malawi and the sub-Saharan African region; iv) the causes of loss-to-follow-up, what happened to patients who transferred out of sites and whether transfer-out patients had outcomes comparable to those who did not transfer; and v) the important question of whether antiretroviral therapy scale up reduced population mortality. The answers to these questions had an important influence on how treatment was delivered in the country, and show the value of this work within a programme setting. Key generic lessons include the importance of i) research questions being relevant to programme needs, ii) studies being coordinated, designed and undertaken within a programme, iii) study findings being disseminated at national stakeholder meetings and through publications in peer-reviewed journals and iv) research being used to influence policy and practice, improve programme performance and ultimately patient treatment outcomes.

Why did the scale-up of HIV treatment work? A case example from Malawi

The national scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Malawi is based on a public health approach, with principles and practices borrowed from the successful DOTS (directly observed treatment short course-the system used to successfully deliver antituberculosis treatment to people in some of the poorest countries of the world) tuberculosis control framework. During the first 6 years, the number of patients registered on treatment increased from 3000 to >350,000 in both the public and private sectors. The most important reasons for this success have been strong international and national leadership combined with adequate funds, a standardized approach to ART with practical guidelines, an approved national scale-up plan with clear, time-bound milestones; investment in an intensive program of training and accreditation of ART sites, quarterly supervision and monitoring of ART and operational research, rational drug forecasting and no stock-outs of drugs during the first few years, and involvement of the private sector. The looming challenges of human resources, guaranteed financial support, better but also more expensive ART regimens, use of electronic medical records to monitor response to therapy, and attention to HIV prevention need to be met head-on and solved if the momentum of the earlier years is to be maintained.

Strengthening health systems through HIV monitoring and evaluation in Sub-Saharan Africa

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In this review, we describe the challenges faced by using clinical cohorts to perform Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) and the possible solutions for increasing and strengthening health systems in low-income and middle-income countries.

RECENT FINDINGS

HIV scale-up has facilitated the transition from paper-based medical records to electronic medical records at hundreds of sites in most of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa and the implementation of national HIV databases. However, National M&E systems in resource-limited settings tend to be chronically challenged by persistently incomplete reporting and inaccurate data, which undermines their usefulness. In low-income and middle-income countries, new information technologies such as Web-based systems and mobile phone networks are expanding rapidly. Their use will improve data quality and, therefore, reduce participant dropout and improve reporting rates. These systems have the potential to allow real time access to summary reports and to integrate data from other settings such as maternal and infant health clinics.

SUMMARY

The efforts to address the AIDS pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa will require enhanced information systems. Stronger systems are needed to deliver primary healthcare for those with and without HIV, and it is also essential to build and take advantage of synergies across health information systems.

Integrated surveillance of HIV care in low-income and middle-income countries

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

HIV care should be seen as a continuum of health interventions that starts from HIV testing and counselling and ends with life-long provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART). All the interventions should be monitored with appropriate methods and indicators to constitute an integrated surveillance system of HIV care. This review outlines the different elements of this comprehensive surveillance, highlighting their public health importance.

RECENT FINDINGS

Data on HIV care programmes in developing countries are generally fragmented and weak, focusing primarily on outcomes of patients on ART. A global scale-up of ART should be accompanied by robust programmatic assessment of the whole spectrum of HIV care components, which include monitoring pre-ART and ART programmatic elements, routine surveillance of HIV drug resistance, pharmacovigilance and appropriate surveillance of HIV-related mortality.

SUMMARY

Comprehensive surveillance of HIV care that integrates multiple elements is needed in order to provide evidence-based data to optimize quality of care and improve survival. However, due to the increasing number of patients, the need for life-long interventions and the weakness of the health system, the implementation and sustainability of an integrated surveillance programme is challenging.

Antiretroviral drug supply challenges in the era of scaling up ART in Malawi

The number of people receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) has increased considerably in recent years and is expected to continue to grow in the coming years. A major challenge is to maintain uninterrupted supplies of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs and prevent stock outs. This article discusses issues around the management of ARVs and prevention of stock outs in Malawi, a low-income country with a high HIV/AIDS burden, and a weak procurement and supply chain management system. This system for ARVs, paid for by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and bypassing the government Central Medical Stores, is in place, using the United Nations Children’s Fund’s (UNICEF’s) procurement services. The system, managed by a handful of people who spend limited time on supply management, is characterized by a centrally coordinated quantification based on verified data from all national ART clinics, parallel procurement through UNICEF, and direct distribution to ART clinics. The model worked well in the first years of the ART programme with a single first-line ARV regimen, but with more regimens becoming available (e.g., alternative first-line, second-line and paediatric regimens), it has become more difficult to administer. Managing supplies through a parallel system has the advantage that weaknesses in the national system have limited influence on the ARV procurement and supply chain management system. However, as the current system operates without a central warehouse and national buffer stock capacity, it diminishes the ability to prevent ARV stock outs. The process of ordering ARVs, from the time that estimates are made to the arrival of supplies in health facilities, takes approximately one year. Addressing the challenges involved in maintaining ARVs through an efficient procurement and supply chain management system that prevents ARV stock outs through the establishment of a dedicated procurement team, a central warehouse and/or national buffer stock is a priority.

Moving beyond behaviour: advancing HIV risk prevention epistemologies and interventions (A report on the state of the literature)

This paper is based on an extensive literature review of academic, policy and 'grey' literatures on the intersections of culture and the global HIV/AIDS pandemic commissioned by UNESCO. It highlights that the review exposed a dominant conceptual perspective that poorly captures structures of vulnerability, particularly structures that expose entire populations to risk in relatively uniform ways. Stemming from this, the review revealed a series of specific topical areas in need of further research including masculinities, transactional sex, infrastructural deficits in health and education, fragile states and global governance. For each of these topical areas the authors demonstrate the relationship to the conceptual limitation, summarise relevant research in this area, and provide evidence of applicability to public health interventions. In pursuit of more effective interventions, this paper draws attention to some of the conceptual limitations of current approaches to understanding the pandemic, and calls for interventions that move beyond individual behaviours to address structures that shape individual behaviour and make entire populations more vulnerable to HIV.

Constraints to implementing the Essential Health Package in Malawi

Increasingly seen as a useful tool of health policy, Essential or Minimal Health Packages direct resources to interventions that aim to address the local burden of disease and be cost-effective. Less attention has been paid to the delivery mechanisms for such interventions. This study aimed to assess the degree to which the Essential Health Package (EHP) in Malawi was available to its population and what health system constraints impeded its full implementation. The first phase of this study comprised a survey of all facilities in three districts including interviews with all managers and clinical staff. In the second and third phase, results were discussed with District Health Management Teams and national level stakeholders, respectively, including representatives of the Ministry of Health, Central Medical Stores, donors and NGOs. The EHP in Malawi is focussing on the local burden of disease; however, key constraints to its successful implementation included a widespread shortage of staff due to vacancies but also caused by frequent trainings and meetings (only 48% of expected man days of clinical staff were available; training and meetings represented 57% of all absences in health centres). Despite the training, the percentage of health workers aware of vital diagnostic and therapeutic approaches to EHP conditions was weak. Another major constraint was shortages of vital drugs at all levels of facilities (e.g. Cotrimoxazole was sufficiently available to treat the average number of patients in only 27% of health centres). Although a few health workers noted some improvement in infrastructure and working conditions, they still considered them to be widely inadequate. In Malawi, as in similar resource poor countries, greater attention needs to be given to the health system constraints to delivering health care. Removal of these constraints should receive priority over the considerable focus on the development and implementation of essential packages of interventions.

A public-health approach to site-specific formulary management: addressing deficient drug supplies in Malawi

OBJECTIVES

Maintaining a well-stocked dispensary at a private non-profit clinic in a developing country can often be challenging due to limited financial and human resources. Organizations face frequent drug shortages, excesses of unnecessary medications and potentially inappropriate international donations. To promote adherence to international recommendations and enable targeted requests for international drug donations, this paper describes a process using a public-health approach to create a site-specific pharmacy formulary in a resource-poor setting using the World Health Organization's (WHO) Model List of Essential Medicines ('Model List').

METHODS

The study site was a Malawian-run non-profit private clinic serving over 3000 people annually. The organization focuses on providing community support for orphans from the HIV/AIDS crisis in sub-Saharan Africa. While using the Model List as a backbone, we incorporated the clinic's drug inventory, patient needs, clinician prescribing patterns, and the country's national drug list into the final formulary. After analyzing site-specific factors, we determined which WHO Model List therapeutic classes were necessary for the clinic to address in the final formulary.

KEY FINDINGS

Of the drug products currently available in the inventory, 65.6% were expired, 29.8% of which were international donations. After removing expired medications from the inventory, seven Model List priority categories remained unaddressed by the clinic's initial inventory. Based on the results of a structured needs assessment, 54 products were selected for the final simplified formulary.

CONCLUSIONS

Conscious selection of pharmaceuticals, resulting in a systematic formulary for drug distribution management, is critical so that a clinic can focus on procuring and prescribing the most needed medications. This selection process using the WHO Model List and a public-health approach to drug management could serve as a private clinic model for pharmaceutical optimization and targeted international drug donations in sub-Saharan Africa and other resource limited settings.

Impact of drug stock-outs on death and retention to care among HIV-infected patients on combination antiretroviral therapy in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire

Background

To evaluate the type and frequency of antiretroviral drug stock-outs, and their impact on death and interruption in care among HIV-infected patients in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a cohort study of patients who initiated combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in three adult HIV clinics between February 1, 2006 and June 1, 2007. Follow-up ended on February 1, 2008. The primary outcome was cART regimen modification, defined as at least one drug substitution, or discontinuation for at least one month due to drug stock-outs at the clinic pharmacy. The secondary outcome for patients who were on cART for at least six months was interruption in care, or death. A Cox regression model with time-dependent variables was used to assess the impact of antiretroviral drug stock-outs on interruption in care or death. Overall, 1,554 adults initiated cART and were followed for a mean of 13.2 months. During this time, 72 patients discontinued treatment and 98 modified their regimen because of drug stock-outs. Stock-outs involved nevirapine and fixed-dose combination zidovudine/lamivudine in 27% and 51% of cases. Of 1,554 patients, 839 (54%) initiated cART with fixed-dose stavudine/lamivudine/nevirapine and did not face stock-outs during the study period. Among the 975 patients who were on cART for at least six months, stock-out-related cART discontinuations increased the risk of interruption in care or death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.83; 95%CI, 1.25–6.44) but cART modifications did not (adjusted HR, 1.21; 95%CI, 0.46–3.16).

Conclusions

cART stock-outs affected at least 11% of population on treatment. Treatment discontinuations due to stock-outs were frequent and doubled the risk of interruption in care or death. These stock-outs did not involve the most common first-line regimen. As access to cART continues to increase in sub-Saharan Africa, first-line regimens should be standardized to decrease the probability of drug stock-outs.

Using touchscreen electronic medical record systems to support and monitor national scale-up of antiretroviral therapy in Malawi

Gerry Douglas and colleagues describe the rationale and their experience with scaling up electronic health records in six antiretroviral treatment sites in Malawi.

Preferences for characteristics of antiretroviral therapy provision in Johannesburg, South Africa: results of a conjoint analysis

A survey was administered to HIV-infected patients and a sample in Soweto and the Johannesburg inner city to measure preferences for antiretroviral therapy (ART) provision. The 25 to 49-year-old male and female respondents viewed 20 sets of three hypothetical ART clinic choices after reading information on ART. Each set had a permutation of four levels of: monthly ART price, clinic waiting times, HIV clinic branding and clinic staff attitudes. For each set, respondents selected the preferred mix of characteristics and indicated if they would pay for it. For every ZAR 100 (USD PPP 25) increase in price, the average probability of selecting a clinic decreased by 2.8 and 3.0% in the HIV patient and household samples, respectively. Cost as well as staff attitude, wait time, and clinic branding may constitute important barriers to ART uptake and adherence in resource-poor settings.

How HIV treatment could result in effective prevention

As the number of HIV infections continues to surpass treatment capacity, new HIV prevention strategies are imperative. Beyond individual clinical benefits, by rendering an individual less infectious, expanding access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) could also have a larger public health impact of curbing new HIV infections. Recent guidelines have moved towards initiating HAART at higher CD4 cell counts, thus increasing the number of individuals in need of treatment. A new treatment strategy is wanting that can simultaneously curb the epidemic and provide necessary treatment to those most in need. A recent debate has centered on whether an expansion of free and universal treatment, regardless of CD4 cell count, could be a means of HIV prevention. In light of the growing access to HAART in resource-limited settings and increasing evidence suggesting the clinical and prevention benefits of initiating treatment at higher CD4 cell counts, it is conceivable that, in the future, HAART will be an integral part of both individual-level clinical treatment programs as well as public health-based HIV prevention interventions.

Strategies to improve patient retention on antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa

The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been one of the success stories of sub-Saharan Africa, where coverage has increased from about 2% in 2003 to more than 40% 5 years later. However, tempering this success is a growing concern about patient retention (the proportion of patients who are alive and remaining on ART in the health system). Based on the personal experience of the authors, 10 key interventions are presented and discussed that might help to improve patient retention. These are (1) the need for simple and standardized monitoring systems to track what is happening, (2) reliable ascertainment of true outcomes of patients lost to follow-up, (3) implementation of measures to reduce early mortality in patients both before and during ART, (4) ensuring uninterrupted drug supplies, (5) consideration of simple, non-toxic ART regimens, (6) decentralization of ART care to health centres and the community, (7) a reduction in indirect costs for patients particularly in relation to transport to and from clinics, (8) strengthening links within and between health services and the community, (9) the use of ART clinics to deliver other beneficial patient or family-orientated packages of care such as insecticide-treated bed nets, and (10) innovative (thinking 'out of the box') interventions. High levels of retention on ART are vital for individual patients, for credibility of programmes and for on-going resource and financial support.

Antiretroviral therapy for HIV prevention: many concerns and challenges, but are there ways forward in sub-Saharan Africa?

Scientists from the WHO have presented a theoretical mathematical model of the potential impact of universal voluntary HIV testing and counselling followed by immediate antiretroviral therapy (ART). The results of the model suggests that, in a generalised epidemic as severe as that in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), HIV incidence may be reduced by 95% in 10 years and that this approach may be cost effective in the medium term. This offers a 'ray of hope' to those who have thus far only dreamed of curbing the HIV/AIDS epidemic in SSA, as until now the glaring truth has been pessimistic. When it comes to ART, approximately 7 of 10 people who clinically need ART still do not receive it. From an epidemic point of view, for every person placed on ART an estimated four to six others acquire HIV. The likelihood of achieving the targets of the Millennium Development Goals for 2015 and universal ART access by 2010 are thus extremely low. A new window of opportunity may have now opened, but there are many unanswered feasibility and acceptability issues. In this paper, we highlight four key operational challenges linked to acceptability and feasibility and discuss possible ways forward to address them.

Antiretroviral treatment changes in adults from Côte d'Ivoire: the roles of tuberculosis and pregnancy

OBJECTIVE

To determine the rates and causes of first antiretroviral treatment changes in HIV-infected adults in Côte d'Ivoire.

METHODS

We evaluated adults who initiated antiretroviral treatment in an outpatient clinic in Abidjan. We recorded baseline and follow-up data, including drug prescriptions and reasons for changing to alternative first-line regimens (drug substitution for any reason but failure) or second-line regimens (switch for failure).

RESULTS

Two thousand and twelve HIV-infected adults (73% women) initiated antiretroviral treatment. At baseline, 9% of all patients were on treatment for tuberculosis and 3% of women were pregnant. First-line antiretroviral treatment consisted of two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (58% stavudine-lamivudine, 42% zidovudine-lamivudine) and efavirenz (63%), nevirapine (32%) or indinavir (5%). Median follow-up time was 16.9 months. During this time, 205 (10%) patients died and 261 (13%) were lost to follow-up. Overall, the rate of treatment modifications was 20.7/100 patient-years. The most common modifications were drug substitutions for intolerance (12.4/100 patient-years), pregnancy (4.5/100 patient-years) and tuberculosis (2.5/100 patient-years). The rates of intolerance-related substitutions were 17.9/100 patient-years for stavudine, 6.3/100 patient-years for nevirapine, 3.9/100 patient-years for zidovudine and 0.1/100 patient-years for efavirenz. Twenty percent of efavirenz substitutions resulted from pregnancy and 18% of nevirapine substitutions were related to tuberculosis treatment.

CONCLUSION

During the first months following antiretroviral treatment initiation, a third of all treatment changes occurred for reasons other than intolerance to the drug or treatment failure. In Africa, drug forecasting is crucial to ensuring the success of HIV treatment programmes. Drugs that do not require interruptions during pregnancy or tuberculosis treatment should be made more readily available as first-line drugs in sub-Saharan Africa.

HIV type 1 drug resistance in adults receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire

As antiretroviral therapy continues to scale-up in developing countries, there is concern that high levels of HIV drug resistance to antiretroviral drugs will occur. Here we describe rates of emergence of HIV-1 drug resistance and factors associated with their occurrence among adults who received antiretroviral therapy (ART) for >1 year through the Côte d'Ivoire national drug access program from 1998 to 2003. To detect genotypic drug resistance, we sequenced all 1- and 2-year specimens with detectable HIV RNA viral load. To assess factors associated with emerging drug resistance, we used log normal regression with interval censoring, including covariates in the model for self-reported drug adherence, CD4 cell count, and HIV viral load at therapy initiation, and observed changes in these measures, type of prescribed ART drugs, diagnoses of opportunistic illness, and demographic characteristics. An estimated 14.2% [95% confidence limits (CL) 11.7, 16.9] and 26.6% (95% CL 22.7, 30.8) of patients developed primary drug-resistant mutations within 1 year and 2 years after initiation of therapy, respectively. Factors associated with drug resistance included drug nonadherence, partial or lack of viral suppression, higher viral load or lower CD4 at initiation of therapy, and initiation of ART with what is now considered substandard dual combination therapy. Our results demonstrate the need to strengthen adherence and continuity in treatment programs in order to avoid interruption of ART drugs. Treatment programs should pay attention to indicators of emerging drug resistance: incomplete or lesser decreases in viral load or increases in CD4 cell counts following initiation of therapy, and the occurrence of AIDS opportunistic illnesses.

Different delivery models for antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of 'universal access'

In 10 years, in line with the concept of universal access, 25 million HIV-infected patients in sub-Saharan Africa might be on antiretroviral therapy (ART). There are different models of ART delivery, from the individualised, medical approach to the simple, public health approach, both having distinct advantages and disadvantages. This mini-review highlights the essential components of both models and argues that, whatever the mix of different models in a country, both must be underpinned by similar core principles so that uninterrupted drug supplies, patient adherence to therapy and compliance with follow up are assured. Failure to do otherwise is to court disaster.

Can modeling of HIV treatment processes improve outcomes? Capitalizing on an operations research approach to the global pandemic

Background

Mathematical modeling has been applied to a range of policy-level decisions on resource allocation for HIV care and treatment. We describe the application of classic operations research (OR) techniques to address logistical and resource management challenges in HIV treatment scale-up activities in resource-limited countries.

Methods

We review and categorize several of the major logistical and operational problems encountered over the last decade in the global scale-up of HIV care and antiretroviral treatment for people with AIDS. While there are unique features of HIV care and treatment that pose significant challenges to effective modeling and service improvement, we identify several analogous OR-based solutions that have been developed in the service, industrial, and health sectors.

Results

HIV treatment scale-up includes many processes that are amenable to mathematical and simulation modeling, including forecasting future demand for services; locating and sizing facilities for maximal efficiency; and determining optimal staffing levels at clinical centers. Optimization of clinical and logistical processes through modeling may improve outcomes, but successful OR-based interventions will require contextualization of response strategies, including appreciation of both existing health care systems and limitations in local health workforces.

Conclusion

The modeling techniques developed in the engineering field of operations research have wide potential application to the variety of logistical problems encountered in HIV treatment scale-up in resource-limited settings. Increasing the number of cross-disciplinary collaborations between engineering and public health will help speed the appropriate development and application of these tools.

Adapting the DOTS framework for tuberculosis control to the management of non-communicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa

Anthony Harries and colleagues discuss how the DOTS paradigm could be adapted for controlling diseases such as diabetes in resource-poor countries.

Early warning indicators for HIV drug resistance in Malawi

Background

Malawi started rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 2004 and by December 2006 had initiated over 85,000 patients on treatment. Early warning indicator (EWI) reports can help to minimize the risk of emerging drug resistance.

Methods

Data collected during the routine quarterly supervision of 103 public sector sites was used to compile the first EWI report for HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) in Malawi, reflecting outcomes for October to December 2006.

Results

All sites reach the World Health Organization (WHO) targets for prescribing practices and drug supply continuity. The target for adherence was achieved by 85% of sites and 84% achieved the target for minimizing treatment defaults; however, less than half of all sites reach the WHO target for patient retention.

Conclusions

These results emphasize the importance of defaulter tracing and initiating treatment earlier in the course of HIV infection. As part of a comprehensive HIVDR monitoring programme, the Ministry of Health plans for on-going tracking of these indicators, as well as special data collection from the private sector. Plans are also underway to gather information on other recommended indicators that are not collected during routine supervision.

Human resources requirements for highly active antiretroviral therapy scale-up in Malawi

BACKGROUND

Twelve percent of the adult population in Malawi is estimated to be HIV infected. About 15% to 20% of these are in need of life saving antiretroviral therapy. The country has a public sector-led antiretroviral treatment program both in the private and public health sectors. Estimation of the clinical human resources needs is required to inform the planning and distribution of health professionals.

METHODS

We obtained data on the total number of patients on highly active antiretroviral treatment program from the Malawi National AIDS Commission and Ministry of Health, HIV Unit, and the number of registered health professionals from the relevant regulatory bodies. We also estimated number of health professionals required to deliver highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) using estimates of human resources from the literature. We also obtained data from the Ministry of Health on the actual number of nurses, clinical officers and medical doctors providing services in HAART clinics. We then made comparisons between the human resources situation on the ground and the theoretical estimates based on explicit assumptions.

RESULTS

There were 610 clinicians (396 clinical officers and 214 physicians), 44 pharmacists and 98 pharmacy technicians and 7264 nurses registered in Malawi. At the end of March 2007 there were 85 clinical officer and physician full-time equivalents (FTEs) and 91 nurse FTEs providing HAART to 95,674 patients. The human resources used for the delivery of HAART comprised 13.9% of all clinical officers and physicians and 1.1% of all nurses. Using the estimated numbers of health professionals from the literature required 15.7-31.4% of all physicians and clinical officers, 66.5-199.3% of all pharmacists and pharmacy technicians and 2.6 to 9.2% of all the available nurses. To provide HAART to all the 170,000 HIV infected persons estimated as clinically eligible would require 4.7% to 16.4% of the total number of nurses, 118.1% to 354.2% of all the available pharmacists and pharmacy technicians and 27.9% to 55.7% of all clinical officers and physicians. The actual number of health professionals working in the delivery of HAART in the clinics represented 44% to 88.8% (for clinical officers and medical doctors) and 13.6% and 47.6% (for nurses), of what would have been needed based on the literature estimation.

CONCLUSION

HAART provision is a labour intensive exercise. Although these data are insufficient to determine whether HAART scale-up has resulted in the weakening or strengthening of the health systems in Malawi, the human resources requirements for HAART scale-up are significant. Malawi is using far less human resources than would be estimated based on the literature from other settings. The impact of HAART scale-up on the overall delivery of health services should be assessed.

Estimating the need for antiretroviral treatment and an assessment of a simplified HIV/AIDS case definition in rural Malawi

BACKGROUND

Surveillance in the era of antiretroviral therapy (ART) requires estimates of HIV prevalence as well as the proportion eligible for ART. We estimated HIV prevalence and assessed field staging of individuals to estimate the burden of HIV disease needing treatment in rural Malawi.

METHODS

Adults aged 18-59 years in a demographic surveillance system were interviewed, examined, and HIV counselled and tested. Staging that used a simplified version of the WHO criteria ('field checklist') was compared with staging by a medical assistant using a 'clinic checklist' and to CD4 cell results.

RESULTS

A total of 2129 of 2303 eligible adults (92.4%) were traced, and 2047 (96.1%) participated. Of the 1443 participants (70.5%) tested, 11.6% were HIV positive. ART eligibility classification by the field and clinic checklists were concordant in 122 of 133 HIV-positive individuals. Compared with the clinic checklist, the field checklist had a sensitivity of 50% and a specificity of 96%. Including those already known to be on ART, staging by the field and clinic checklists estimated ART eligibility at 16.3 and 17.7% of HIV-positive individuals, respectively. Using CD4 cell count under 250 cells/mul or WHO stage III/IV, the Malawi national programme criteria, 38% of HIV-positive individuals were eligible for ART, compared with 31% based on the 2006 WHO criteria of CD4 cell count under 200 cells/mul or WHO stage IV or CD4 cell count of 200-350 cells/mul and WHO stage III.

CONCLUSION

The field checklist was not a suitable tool for individual staging. Criteria for ART eligibility based on clinical staging alone missed two-thirds of those eligible by clinical staging and CD4 cell count.

Implementation and evaluation of a web based system for pharmacy stock management in rural Haiti

Managing the stock and supply of medication is essential for the provision of health care, especially in resource poor areas of the world. We have developed an innovative, web-based stock management system to support nine clinics in rural Haiti. Building on our experience with a web-based EMR system for our HIV patients, we developed a comprehensive stock tracking system that is modeled on the appearance of standardized WHO stock cards. The system allows pharmacy staff at all clinics to enter stock levels and also to request drugs and track shipments. Use of the system over the last 2 years has increased rapidly and we now track 450 products supporting care for 1.78 million patient visits annually. Over the last year drug stockouts have fallen from 2.6% to 1.1% and 97% of stock requests delivered were shipped within 1 day. We are now setting up this system in our clinics in rural Rwanda.