Breast cancer risk based on adapted IBIS prediction model in Slovenian women aged 40-49 years - could it be better?

Breast cancer risk prediction using Tyrer-Cuzick algorithm with an 18-SNPs polygenic risk score in a European population with below-average breast cancer incidence

GOALS

To determine whether an 18 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) polygenic risk score (PRS18) improves breast cancer (BC) risk prediction for women at above-average risk of BC, aged 40-49, in a Central European population with BC incidence below EU average.

METHODS

502 women aged 40-49 years at the time of BC diagnosis completed a questionnaire on BC risk factors (as per Tyrer-Cuzick algorithm) with data known at age 40 and before BC diagnosis. Blood samples were collected for DNA isolation. 250 DNA samples from healthy women aged 50 served as a control cohort. 18 BC-associated SNPs were genotyped in both groups and PRS18 was calculated. The predictive power of PRS18 to detect BC was evaluated using a ROC curve. 10-year BC risk was calculated using the Tyrer-Cuzick algorithm adapted to the Slovenian incidence rate (S-IBIS): first based on questionnaire-based risk factors and, second, including PRS18.

RESULTS

The AUC for PRS18 was 0.613 (95 % CI 0.570-0.657). 83.3 % of women were classified at above-average risk for BC with S-IBIS without PRS18 and 80.7 % when PRS18 was included.

CONCLUSION

BC risk prediction models and SNPs panels should not be automatically used in clinical practice in different populations without prior population-based validation. In our population the addition of an 18SNPs PRS to questionnaire-based risk factors in the Tyrer-Cuzick algorithm in general did not improve BC risk stratification, however, some improvements were observed at higher BC risk scores and could be valuable in distinguishing women at intermediate and high risk of BC.

Breast cancer risk assessment and risk distribution in 3,491 Slovenian women invited for screening at the age of 50; a population-based cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

The evidence shows that risk-based strategy could be implemented to avoid unnecessary harm in mammography screening for breast cancer (BC) using age-only criterium. Our study aimed at identifying the uptake of Slovenian women to the BC risk assessment invitation and assessing the number of screening mammographies in case of risk-based screening.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional population-based study enrolled 11,898 women at the age of 50, invited to BC screening. The data on BC risk factors, including breast density from the first 3,491 study responders was collected and BC risk was assessed using the Tyrer-Cuzick algorithm (version 8) to classify women into risk groups (low, population, moderately increased, and high risk group). The number of screening mammographies according to risk stratification was simulated.

RESULTS

57% (6,785) of women returned BC risk questionnaires. When stratifying 3,491 women into risk groups, 34.0% were assessed with low, 62.2% with population, 3.4% with moderately increased, and 0.4% with high 10-year BC risk. In the case of potential personalised screening, the number of screening mammographies would drop by 38.6% compared to the current screening policy.

CONCLUSIONS

The study uptake showed the feasibility of risk assessment when inviting women to regular BC screening. 3.8% of Slovenian women were recognised with higher than population 10-year BC risk. According to Slovenian BC guidelines they may be screened more often. Overall, personalised screening would decrease the number of screening mammographies in Slovenia. This information is to be considered when planning the pilot and assessing the feasibility of implementing population risk-based screening.

Association of Interleukin-10 Polymorphism (rs1800896, rs1800871, and rs1800872) With Breast Cancer Risk: An Updated Meta-Analysis Based on Different Ethnic Groups

Background: The interleukin10 (IL-10) gene polymorphisms have been indicated to be associated with breast cancer (BC) risk, but the findings are still controversial. To derive a more precise evaluation, we performed a comprehensive meta-analysis.

Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted using PubMed, Embase, CNKI, China biomedical (CBM), and Google Scholar to 29 March 2020. Revman5.3 and Stata 12.0 software analyzed the data, and the strength of the association was identified using the odds ratio (OR) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results: A total of 23 studies (7,250 cancer cases and 7,675 case-free controls) were included in this meta-analysis. The results show that IL-10 gene polymorphisms were significantly correlated with BC risk based on subgroup analysis by ethnicity. The IL-10 rs1800896 polymorphism was significantly associated with the risk of BC in Asians (G vs. A: OR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.65–0.95, p = 0.01; GG vs. AA: OR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.31–0.84, p = 0.007; GA vs. AA: OR = 0.6, 95% CI = 0.44–0.81, p = 0.0009; GG + GA vs. AA: OR = 0.6, 95% CI = 0.45–0.81, p = 0.0007); Moreover, an increased BC risk in Asians were also associated with the IL-10 rs1800872 polymorphism (AA vs CC: OR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.55–0.99, p = 0.04; A vs C: OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.74–0.98, p = 0.03). In addition, The IL-10 rs1800871 (CT vs. TT: OR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.03–3.13, p = 0.04) and rs1800872 polymorphism (A vs C: OR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.43–0.98, p = 0.04) were associated with BC risk in Caucasians.

Conclusion: Collectively, this meta-analysis demonstrated that IL-10 rs1800896 and rs1800872 (AA vs. CC; A vs. C) polymorphisms significantly increased the risk of BC in Asians, while the rs1800871 and rs1800872 (A vs. C) were associated with the risk of BC in Caucasians. Therefore, this may provide new ideas for predicting and diagnosing BC susceptibility through the detection of IL-10 gene polymorphism.

Systematic Review Registration: [https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/ PROSPERO], identifier [CRD42021266635].