Combining clinical predictors to better predict for the no-reflow phenomenon

No-Reflow Prediction in Acute Coronary Syndrome During Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: The NORPACS Risk Score

BACKGROUND

Suboptimal coronary reperfusion (no reflow) is common in acute coronary syndrome percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and is associated with poor outcomes. We aimed to develop and externally validate a clinical risk score for angiographic no reflow for use following angiography and before PCI.

METHODS

We developed and externally validated a logistic regression model for prediction of no reflow among adult patients undergoing PCI for acute coronary syndrome using data from the Melbourne Interventional Group PCI registry (2005-2020; development cohort) and the British Cardiovascular Interventional Society PCI registry (2006-2020; external validation cohort).

RESULTS

A total of 30 561 patients (mean age, 64.1 years; 24% women) were included in the Melbourne Interventional Group development cohort and 440 256 patients (mean age, 64.9 years; 27% women) in the British Cardiovascular Interventional Society external validation cohort. The primary outcome (no reflow) occurred in 4.1% (1249 patients) and 9.4% (41 222 patients) of the development and validation cohorts, respectively. From 33 candidate predictor variables, 6 final variables were selected by an adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model for inclusion (cardiogenic shock, ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction with symptom onset >195 minutes pre-PCI, estimated stent length ≥20 mm, vessel diameter <2.5 mm, pre-PCI Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction flow <3, and lesion location). Model discrimination was very good (development C statistic, 0.808; validation C statistic, 0.741) with excellent calibration. Patients with a score of ≥8 points had a 22% and 27% risk of no reflow in the development and validation cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The no-reflow prediction in acute coronary syndrome risk score is a simple count-based scoring system based on 6 parameters available before PCI to predict the risk of no reflow. This score could be useful in guiding preventative treatment and future trials.

Presence of Microvascular Dysfunction and CHA2DS2-VASc Score in Patients with ST-Segment Myocardial Infarction after Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Objective

We aimed to investigate the relation between CHA₂DS₂-VASc score and microvascular dysfunction (MVD) assessed by the index of microvascular resistance (IMR) immediately after primary percutaneous intervention (PPCI) for patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

Subjects and Methods

The study included 115 consecutive patients with STEMI who underwent successful PPCI. Angiographic results of reperfusion were inspected to evaluate the association of high CHA₂DS₂-VASc score and IMR. Also, we assessed echocardiographic changes with respect to CHA₂DS₂-VASc score.

Results

Subjects were stratified into 2 groups based on IMR </≥ 40 U; 72 patients (62.6) with IMR <40 U and 43 patients (37.4) with IMR ≥40 U. Patients with IMR ≥40 U had higher CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (p < 0.001). CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was significantly correlated with increased left atrial volume index, diastolic dysfunction, wall motion score index, and inversely correlated left ventricular ejection. Moreover, CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was strongly correlated with IMR (p < 0.001). At multivariate analysis, low systolic blood pressure, stent diameter, and CHA₂DS₂-VASc score were associated with MVD. Besides, CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥4 was the optimal value in predicting MVD (IMR ≥40) in STEMI patients.

Conclusions

The data of the current study point out that increased CHA₂DS₂-VASc score, lower systolic blood pressure <90 mm Hg, and stent diameter are associated with increased incidence of MVD (increased IMR) after PPCI of STEMI. We suggest that the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score may be a simple, inexpensive useful risk score for the prediction of MVD risk after PPCI for STEMI patients.

Association of CHA2DS2-VASc score with thrombus burden in patients with acute myocardial infarction undergoing SVG-PCI

BACKGROUND

The rate of saphenous vein graft (SVG) occlusion within the first year of bypass graft surgery is 15%. The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score is used to predict the risk of thromboembolic events in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. We aimed to evaluate the predictive role of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score in the estimation of intracoronary thrombus burden in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) who underwent SVG-PCI.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated 221 patients who were admitted with AMI and underwent PCI of SVGs at the Department of Cardiology in the Turkiye Yuksek Ihtisas Education and Research Hospital between 2012 and 2018. The study population was divided into two groups according to their Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) thrombus grade: low thrombus burden (LTB; TIMI 0-3) and high thrombus burden (HTB; TIMI 4 and 5).

RESULTS

The study included 221 patients with a mean age of 63.3 ± 6.7 years. The patients with HTB had significantly higher CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores (p < 0.001) compared with LTB patients. Univariate and multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that both CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (OR: 1.573, 95% CI: 1.153-2.147, p = 0.004) as a continuous variable and a binary cut-off level of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score > 3 (OR: 3.876, 95% CI: 1.705-8.808, p = 0.001) were significantly associated with HTB. The ability of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score to predict HTB burden was evaluated by receiver-operating characteristics analysis curve analysis. The optimum cut-off value of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score for predicting HTB was 3 (with a sensitivity of 67.9% and a specificity of 69.3%) according to the Youden index.

CONCLUSION

The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score can be used as an easy practical tool to predict HTB in AMI patients undergoing SVG-PCI.

New CHA2DS2-VASc-HSF score predicts the no-reflow phenomenon after primary percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

The no-reflow phenomenon (NRP) is a serious complication of primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) and is an independent predictor of poor prognosis. We aimed to find a simple but effective risk stratification method for the prediction of NRP.

METHODS

This retrospective single-center study included 454 consecutive patients diagnosed with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and treated by PPCI, who were admitted to our emergency department between January 2017 and March 2019. The patients were divided according to the post-PPCI thrombolysis in the myocardial infarction flow rate: the NRP group and the control group. The CHADS₂, CHA₂DS₂-VASc, and CHA₂DS₂-VASc-HSF scores were calculated for all the patients in this study, and multivariable regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were conducted to determine the independent predictors of NRP and the predictive value of the three scores.

RESULTS

A total of 454 patients were analyzed in this study: 80 in the no-reflow group and 374 in the control group. The incidence of NRP was 17.6%. Creatine kinase-myocardial band, Killip class, stent length, and multivessel disease also independently predicted NRP. The CHA₂DS₂-VASc-HSF score had a higher predictive value than the other two scores, and a CHA₂DS₂-VASc-HSF score of ≥4 predicted NRP with a sensitivity of 72.5% and specificity of 66.5% (area under the curve: 0.755, 95% confidence interval [0.702-0.808]).

CONCLUSION

Although the CHADS₂, CHA₂DS₂-VASc, and CHA₂DS₂-VASc-HSF scores can all be used as simple tools to predict NRP, our findings show that the CHA₂DS₂-VASc-HSF score had the highest predictive value. Thus, the CHA₂DS₂-VASc-HSF score may be an optimal tool for predicting high-risk patients.