Lessons learnt from malaria epidemics in the Islamic Republic of Iran

Simulation of the potential impact of climate change on malaria incidence using artificial neural networks (ANNs)

Climate change can increase the spread of infectious diseases and public health concerns. Malaria is one of the endemic infectious diseases of Iran, whose transmission is strongly influenced by climatic conditions. The effect of climate change on malaria in the southeastern Iran from 2021 to 2050 was simulated by using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Gamma test (GT) and general circulation models (GCMs) were used to determine the best delay time and to generate the future climate model under two distinct scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). To simulate the various impacts of climate change on malaria infection, ANNs were applied using daily collected data for 12 years (from 2003 to 2014). The future climate of the study area will be hotter by 2050. The simulation of malaria cases elucidated that there is an intense increasing trend in malaria cases under the RCP8.5 scenario until 2050, with the highest number of infections occurring in the warmer months. Rainfall and maximum temperature were identified as the most influential input variables. Optimum temperatures and increased rainfall provide a suitable environment for the transmission of parasites and cause an intense increase in the number of infection cases with a delay of approximately 90 days. ANNs were introduced as a practical tool for simulating the impact of climate change on the prevalence, geographic distribution, and biological activity of malaria and for estimating the future trend of the disease in order to adopt protective measures in endemic areas.

Climate change and health in Iran: a narrative review

BACKGROUND

The consequences of climate change are highly impeding the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) anywhere, especially in low and middle-income countries. While climate change scales up, its health-related risks increase, which in turn leads to cause new challenges for public health. As a second largest country of the Eastern Mediterranean Region of World Health Organization, Iran is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

PURPOSE

This study seeks the notion of health risks and challenges of climate change in Iran and provide potential evidence-based remedies to prevent and diminish such destructive effects.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature in various computerized databases was conducted, and numerous published original research and review articles about climate change status and evidences of adverse health consequences of climate change in Iran were reviewed.

RESULTS

The evidence suggests that the expected health challenges related to climate change in Iran are: rising temperatures; frequent extreme weather events; reduction of air quality; food-borne, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases; mental health and well-being consequences; and the increasing trend of natural disasters and deaths associated with climatological hazards.

CONCLUSIONS

By considering the growing burden of diseases associated with climate variability in Iran as well as the interdisciplinary nature of climate change and health issues, an integrated, multi-sectoral, and comprehensive approach for identification, prioritization, and implementation of adaptation options is required by Ministry of Health and Medical Education as a custodian of public health in order to enhance the resiliency and adaption against adverse health effects of climate change.

Malaria situation in Iran: 2002-2017

Background

Malaria is considered as a major threat to health systems. It is still considered as one of the most important infectious diseases in Iran, but with an elimination goal in 2025. This study aimed to review the malaria situation in Iran over the 16 years.

Methods

The data was collected from epidemiological registration forms that had been completed by physicians and malaria focal points in the National Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Results

During the study period, 134,273 malaria cases were reported. The malaria incidence decreased from 0.24/1000 cases in 2002 to 0.01/1000 in 2017. From 2009 onward, the number of imported cases increased in comparison with the autochthonous and indigenous cases. Most cases were seen in males and people over 15 years of age. Moreover, the dominant registered reports were from rural areas. Most malaria cases were reported from the south and southeastern of Iran. Plasmodium vivax was the dominant species.

Conclusion

The dramatic drop in the incidence of autochthonous cases can hopefully support malaria elimination as a major goal in the near future.

The effects of electricity network development besides routine malaria control measures in an underdeveloped region in the pre-elimination phase

Background

The main purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of electricity network development on malaria transmission. The study was performed in the rural areas of three districts in Sistan-va-Baluchestan Province, Iran.

Methods

From the mentioned districts, 122 rural communities were selected. The data of the years 2005–2009 were collected retrospectively from data banks of the district health centres and the offices of the local electricity network. Fixed and random effects panel data regression models were fitted to determine the effects of electrification and other variables on malaria transmission during the elimination phase.

Results

It seems that access to electricity of rural communities, if not harmful, has no obvious effect on malaria control and prevention at least during the elimination phase in an underdeveloped region. Elevation above sea level and precipitation during spring and summer were found to be the other important, respectively, time-invariant and time-dependent variables associated with decreasing and increasing malaria transmission. Indoor residual spraying and the use of insecticide-treated mosquito nets were not found to be effective in decreasing malaria transmission in the elimination phase.

Conclusions

The introduction of electricity to a rural community does not guarantee an absolutely good effect on the reduction of malaria transmission.

Predicting factors for malaria re-introduction: an applied model in an elimination setting to prevent malaria outbreaks

BACKGROUND

Malaria re-introduction is a challenge in elimination settings. To prevent re-introduction, receptivity, vulnerability, and health system capacity of foci should be monitored using appropriate tools. This study aimed to design an applicable model to monitor predicting factors of re-introduction of malaria in highly prone areas.

METHODS

This exploratory, descriptive study was conducted in a pre-elimination setting with a high-risk of malaria transmission re-introduction. By using nominal group technique and literature review, a list of predicting indicators for malaria re-introduction and outbreak was defined. Accordingly, a checklist was developed and completed in the field for foci affected by re-introduction and for cleared-up foci as a control group, for a period of 12 weeks before re-introduction and for the same period in the previous year. Using field data and analytic hierarchical process (AHP), each variable and its sub-categories were weighted, and by calculating geometric means for each sub-category, score of corresponding cells of interaction matrices, lower and upper threshold of different risks strata, including low and mild risk of re-introduction and moderate and high risk of malaria outbreaks, were determined. The developed predictive model was calibrated through resampling with different sets of explanatory variables using R software. Sensitivity and specificity of the model were calculated based on new samples.

RESULTS

Twenty explanatory predictive variables of malaria re-introduction were identified and a predictive model was developed. Unpermitted immigrants from endemic neighbouring countries were determined as a pivotal factor (AHP score: 0.181). Moreover, quality of population movement (0.114), following malaria transmission season (0.088), average daily minimum temperature in the previous 8 weeks (0.062), an outdoor resting shelter for vectors (0.045), and rainfall (0.042) were determined. Positive and negative predictive values of the model were 81.8 and 100 %, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study introduced a new, simple, yet reliable model to forecast malaria re-introduction and outbreaks eight weeks in advance in pre-elimination and elimination settings. The model incorporates comprehensive deterministic factors that can easily be measured in the field, thereby facilitating preventive measures.

Population-Based Seroprevalence of Malaria in Hormozgan Province, Southeastern Iran: A Low Transmission Area

The seroepidemiological condition of malaria in three main districts of Hormozgan Province, a low transmission area in southeast of Iran, was investigated. Methods. Sera samples (803) were collected from healthy volunteers from the three main districts (Bandar Lengeh in the west, Bandar Abbas in the center, and Bandar Jask in the east) of Hormozgan Province. A questionnaire was used to record the sociodemographic features of the participants during sample collecting. An in-house ELISA test, using crude antigens obtained from cell culture of Plasmodium falciparum, was adapted and used to detect anti-malaria antibodies in the sera. Results. The overall seroprevalence of malaria was 8.7% (70 out of 803 samples). A significant correlation was found between seropositivity and place of residence, where the highest rate of seropositivity was seen in Bandar Lengeh (west of the province). The highest seroprevalence of malaria (13.2%) was seen in the age group of 11-20 years and also in low educated individuals. Correlation between seropositivity and gender, age, and educational levels of the participants was statistically significant (P < 0.05). Conclusion. Findings of this study indicate that the rate of seropositivity to malaria in this area is not high and this might be linked to the success of malaria control programs during the last decades in the region.