Vaccine effectiveness in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in Navarre, Spain: 2013/14 mid-season analysis

The effectiveness of influenza vaccination in preventing hospitalisations of elderly individuals in two influenza seasons: a multicentre case-control study, Spain, 2013/14 and 2014/15

Influenza vaccination may limit the impact of influenza in the community. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in preventing hospitalisation in individuals aged ≥ 65 years in Spain. A multicentre case–control study was conducted in 20 Spanish hospitals during 2013/14 and 2014/15. Patients aged ≥ 65 years who were hospitalised with laboratory-confirmed influenza were matched with controls according to sex, age and date of hospitalisation. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated by multivariate conditional logistic regression. A total of 728 cases and 1,826 matched controls were included in the study. Overall VE was 36% (95% confidence interval (CI): 22–47). VE was 51% (95% CI: 15–71) in patients without high-risk medical conditions and 30% (95% CI: 14–44) in patients with them. VE was 39% (95% CI: 20–53) in patients aged 65–79 years and 34% (95% CI: 11–51) in patients aged ≥ 80 years, and was greater against the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 subtype than the A(H3N2) subtype. Influenza vaccination was effective in preventing hospitalisations of elderly individuals.

On the bias of estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness from test-negative studies

Estimates of the effectiveness of influenza vaccines are commonly obtained from a test-negative design (TND) study, where cases and controls are patients seeking care for an acute respiratory illness who test positive and negative, respectively, for influenza infection. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates from TND studies are usually interpreted as vaccine effectiveness against medically-attended influenza (MAI). However, it is also important to estimate VE against any influenza illness (symptomatic influenza (SI)) as individuals with SI are still a public health burden even if they do not seek medical care. We present a numerical method to evaluate the bias of TND-based estimates of influenza VE with respect to MAI and SI. We consider two sources of bias: (a) confounding bias due to a (possibly unobserved) covariate that is associated with both vaccination and the probability of the outcome of interest and (b) bias resulting from the effect of vaccination on the probability of seeking care. Our results indicate that (a) VE estimates may suffer from substantial confounding bias when a confounder has a different effect on the probabilities of influenza and non-influenza ARI, and (b) when vaccination reduces the probability of seeking care against influenza ARI, then estimates of VE against MAI may be unbiased while estimates of VE against SI may be have a substantial positive bias.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness among high-risk groups: A systematic literature review and meta-analysis of case-control and cohort studies

Vaccination represents the most effective intervention to prevent infection, hospitalization and mortality due to influenza. This meta-analysis quantifies data reporting influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) on influenza visits and hospitalizations of case-control and cohort studies among high-risk groups.

A systematic literature review including original articles published between 2007 and 2016, using a protocol registered on Prospero with No. 42017054854, and a meta-analysis were conducted.

For 3 high-risk groups (subjects with underlying health conditions, pregnant women and health care workers) only a qualitative evaluation was performed. The VE quantitative analysis demonstrated a clear significant overall effect of 39% (95%CI: 32–46%) for visits and 57% (95%CI: 30–74%) for hospitalization among children. Considering the elderly influenza VE had a clear effect of 25% (95%CI: 6–40%) for visits and 14% (95%CI: 7–21%; p<0.001) for hospitalization.

This study showed the high VE of influenza vaccination among high-risk groups, representing a tool for public health decision-makers to develop evidence-based preventive interventions to avoid influenza outcomes.

Effects of previous episodes of influenza and vaccination in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in Navarre, Spain, 2013/14 season

We estimated whether previous episodes of influenza and trivalent influenza vaccination prevented laboratory-confirmed influenza in Navarre, Spain, in season 2013/14. Patients with medically-attended influenza-like illness (MA-ILI) in hospitals (n = 645) and primary healthcare (n = 525) were included. We compared 589 influenza cases and 581 negative controls. MA-ILI related to a specific virus subtype in the previous five seasons was defined as a laboratory-confirmed influenza infection with the same virus subtype or MA-ILI during weeks when more than 25% of swabs were positive for this subtype. Persons with previous MA-ILI had 30% (95% confidence interval (CI): -7 to 54) lower risk of MA-ILI, and those with previous MA-ILI related to A(H1N1)pdm09 or A(H3N2) virus, had a, respectively, 63% (95% CI: 16-84) and 65% (95% CI: 13-86) lower risk of new laboratory-confirmed influenza by the same subtype. Overall adjusted vaccine effectiveness in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza was 31% (95% CI: 5-50): 45% (95% CI: 12-65) for A(H1N1)pdm09 and 20% (95% CI: -16 to 44) for A(H3N2). While a previous influenza episode induced high protection only against the same virus subtype, influenza vaccination provided low to moderate protection against all circulating subtypes. Influenza vaccine remains the main preventive option for high-risk populations.

Influenza evolution and H3N2 vaccine effectiveness, with application to the 2014/2015 season

Influenza A is a serious disease that causes significant morbidity and mortality, and vaccines against the seasonal influenza disease are of variable effectiveness. In this article, we discuss the use of the pepitope method to predict the dominant influenza strain and the expected vaccine effectiveness in the coming flu season. We illustrate how the effectiveness of the 2014/2015 A/Texas/50/2012 [clade 3C.1] vaccine against the A/California/02/2014 [clade 3C.3a] strain that emerged in the population can be estimated via pepitope In addition, we show by a multidimensional scaling analysis of data collected through 2014, the emergence of a new A/New Mexico/11/2014-like cluster [clade 3C.2a] that is immunologically distinct from the A/California/02/2014-like strains.

Moderate influenza vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation with A(H3N2) and A(H1N1) influenza in 2013-14: Results from the InNHOVE network

We conducted a multicentre test negative case control study to estimate the 2013-14 influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against hospitalised laboratory confirmed influenza in 12 hospitals in France, Italy and Spain. We included all ≥18 years hospitalised patients targeted by local influenza vaccination campaign reporting an influenza-like illness within 7 days before admission. We defined as cases patients RT-PCR positive for influenza and as controls those negative for all influenza virus. We used a logistic regression to calculate IVE adjusted for country, month of onset, chronic diseases and age. We included 104 A(H1N1)pdm09, 157 A(H3N2) cases and 585 controls. The adjusted IVE was 42.8% (95%CI: 6.3;65;0) against A(H1N1)pdm09. It was respectively 61.4% (95%CI: -1.9;85.4), 39.4% (95%CI: -32.2;72.2) and 19.7% (95%CI:-148.1;74.0) among patients aged 18-64, 65-79 and ≥80 years. The adjusted IVE against A(H3N2) was 38.1% (95%CI: 8.3;58.2) overall. It was respectively 7.8% (95%CI: -145.3;65.4), 25.6% (95%CI: -36.0;59.2) and 55.2% (95%CI: 15.4;76.3) among patients aged 18-64, 65-79 and ≥80 years. These results suggest a moderate and age varying effectiveness of the 2013-14 influenza vaccine to prevent hospitalised laboratory-confirmed influenza. While vaccination remains the most effective prevention measure, developing more immunogenic influenza vaccines is needed to prevent severe outcomes among target groups.

Evaluation of influenza vaccine effectiveness and description of circulating strains in outpatient settings in South Africa, 2014

The effectiveness of the trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine during the 2014 season in South Africa was assessed using a test-negative case-control study design including 472 cases and 362 controls. Influenza A(H3N2) was the dominant strain circulating. The overall vaccine effectiveness estimate, adjusted for age and underlying conditions, was 43·1% (95% CI: -26·8-74·5). 2014 H3N2 viruses from South Africa were mainly in sublineage 3C.3 with accumulation of amino acid changes that differentiate them from the vaccine strain in 3C.1.

The European I-MOVE Multicentre 2013-2014 Case-Control Study. Homogeneous moderate influenza vaccine effectiveness against A(H1N1)pdm09 and heterogenous results by country against A(H3N2)

BACKGROUND

In the first five I-MOVE (Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe) influenza seasons vaccine effectiveness (VE) results were relatively homogenous among participating study sites. In 2013-2014, we undertook a multicentre case-control study based on sentinel practitioner surveillance networks in six European Union (EU) countries to measure 2013-2014 influenza VE against medically-attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory-confirmed as influenza. Influenza A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses co-circulated during the season.

METHODS

Practitioners systematically selected ILI patients to swab within eight days of symptom onset. We compared cases (ILI positive to influenza A(H3N2) or A(H1N1)pdm09) to influenza negative patients. We calculated VE for the two influenza A subtypes and adjusted for potential confounders. We calculated heterogeneity between sites using the I(2) index and Cochrane's Q test. If the I(2) was <50%, we estimated pooled VE as (1 minus the OR)×100 using a one-stage model with study site as a fixed effect. If the I(2) was >49% we used a two-stage random effects model.

RESULTS

We included in the A(H1N1)pdm09 analysis 531 cases and 1712 controls and in the A(H3N2) analysis 623 cases and 1920 controls. For A(H1N1)pdm09, the Q test (p=0.695) and the I(2) index (0%) suggested no heterogeneity of adjusted VE between study sites. Using a one-stage model, the overall pooled adjusted VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 was 47.5% (95% CI: 16.4-67.0). For A(H3N2), the I(2) was 51.5% (p=0.067). Using a two-stage model for the pooled analysis, the adjusted VE against A(H3N2) was 29.7 (95% CI: -34.4-63.2).

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest a moderate 2013-2014 influenza VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 and a low VE against A(H3N2). The A(H3N2) estimates were heterogeneous among study sites. Larger sample sizes by study site are needed to prevent statistical heterogeneity, decrease variability and allow for two-stage pooled VE for all subgroup analyses.

Integrated Sentinel Surveillance Linking Genetic, Antigenic, and Epidemiologic Monitoring of Influenza Vaccine-Virus Relatedness and Effectiveness During the 2013-2014 Influenza Season

BACKGROUND

Canada's Sentinel Physician Surveillance Network links genetic, antigenic, and vaccine effectiveness (VE) measures in an integrated platform of influenza monitoring, described here for the 2013-2014 influenza season of resurgent A(H1N1)pdm09 and late-season type B activity.

METHODS

VE was estimated as [1 - odds ratio] × 100% and compared vaccination status between individuals who tested positive (cases) and those who tested negative (controls) for influenza virus. Vaccine-virus relatedness was assessed by genomic sequence analysis and hemagglutination inhibition assays.

RESULTS

Analyses included 1037 controls (of whom 33% were vaccinated) and 663 cases (of whom 14% were vaccinated). A total of 415 cases tested positive for A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, 15 tested positive for A(H3N2) virus, 191 tested positive for B/Yamagata-lineage virus, 6 tested positive for B/Victoria-lineage virus, and 36 tested positive for viruses of unknown subtype or lineage. A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses belonged to clade 6B, distinguished by a K163Q substitution, but remained antigenically similar to the A/California/07/2009-like vaccine strain, with an adjusted VE of 71% (95% confidence interval [CI], 58%-80%). Most B/Yamagata-lineage viruses (83%) clustered phylogenetically with the prior (ie, 2012-2013) season's B/Wisconsin/01/2010-like clade 3 vaccine strain, while only 17% clustered with the current (ie, 2013-2014) season's B/Massachusetts/02/2012-like clade 2 vaccine strain. The adjusted VE for B/Yamagata-lineage virus was 73% (95% CI, 57%-84%), with a lower VE obtained after partial calendar-time adjustment for clade-mismatched B/Wisconsin/01/2010-like virus (VE, 63%; 95% CI, 41%-77%), compared with that for clade-matched B/Massachusetts/02/2012-like virus (VE, 88%; 95% CI, 48%-97%). No A(H3N2) viruses clustered with the A/Texas/50/2012-like clade 3C.1 vaccine strain, and more than half were antigenically mismatched, but sparse data did not support VE estimation.

CONCLUSIONS

VE corresponded with antigenically conserved A(H1N1)pdm09 and lineage-matched B/Yamagata viruses with clade-level variation. Surveillance linking genotypic, phenotypic, and epidemiologic measures of vaccine-virus relatedness and effectiveness could better inform predictions of vaccine performance and reformulation.

Start of the 2014/15 influenza season in Europe: drifted influenza A(H3N2) viruses circulate as dominant subtype

The influenza season 2014/15 started in Europe in week 50 2014 with influenza A(H3N2) viruses predominating. The majority of the A(H3N2) viruses characterised antigenically and/or genetically differ from the northern hemisphere vaccine component which may result in reduced vaccine effectiveness for the season. We therefore anticipate that this season may be more severe than the 2013/14 season. Treating influenza with antivirals in addition to prevention with vaccination will be important.

Interim estimates of 2014/15 vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H3N2) from Canada's Sentinel Physician Surveillance Network, January 2015

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Guidance for practitioners on the use of antiviral drugs to control influenza outbreaks in long-term care facilities in Canada, 2014-2015 season

The AMMI Canada Guidelines document 'The use of antiviral drugs for influenza: A foundation document for practitioners', published in the Autumn 2013 issue of the Journal, outlines the recommendations for the use of antiviral drugs to treat influenza. This article, which represents the first of two updates to these guidelines published in the current issue of the Journal, aims to inform health care professionals of the increased risk for influenza in long-term care facilities due to a documented mismatch between the components chosen for this season's vaccine and currently circulating influenza strains. Adjusted recommendations for the use of antiviral drugs for influenza in long-term care facilities for this season are provided.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness assessment through sentinel virological data in three post-pandemic seasons

Influenza vaccination aims at reducing the incidence of serious disease, complications and death among those with the most risk of severe influenza disease. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) through sentinel surveillance data from the PIDIRAC program (Daily Acute Respiratory Infection Surveillance of Catalonia) during 2010-2011, 2011-2012, and 2012-2013 influenza seasons, with three different predominant circulating influenza virus (IV) types [A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B, respectively] was assessed. The total number of sentinel samples with known vaccination background collected during the study period was 3173, 14.7% of which had received the corresponding seasonal influenza vaccine. 1117 samples (35.2%) were positive for IV. A retrospective negative case control design was used to assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) for the entire period and for each epidemic influenza season. An overall VE of 58.1% (95% CI:46.8-67) was obtained. Differences in VE according to epidemic season were observed, being highest for the 2012-2013 season with predominance of IV type B (69.7% ;95% CI:51.5-81) and for the 2010-2011 season, with predominance of the A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza virus strain (67.2% ;95%CI:49.5-78.8) and lowest for the 2011-2012 season with A(H3N2) subtype predominance (34.2% ;95%CI:4.5-54.6). Influenza vaccination prevents a substantial number of influenza-associated illnesses. Although vaccines with increased effectiveness are needed and the search for a universal vaccine that is not subject to genetic modifications might increase VE, nowadays only the efforts to increase vaccination rates of high-risk population and healthcare personnel let reduce the burden of influenza and its complications.

Influenza vaccine prevents medically attended influenza-associated acute respiratory illness in adults aged ≥50 years

BACKGROUND

There are few estimates of effectiveness influenza vaccine in preventing serious outcomes due to influenza in older adults.

METHODS

Adults aged ≥50 years who sought medical care for acute respiratory illness were enrolled. A nose/throat swab was tested for influenza virus by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Clinical and demographic data were collected, including verification of receipt of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination (IIV-3). Adjusted odds ratios were estimated by multivariable logistic regression models with an L1 penalty on all covariates except vaccination status.

RESULTS

A total of 1047 subjects were enrolled from November through April during 5 influenza seasons during 2006-2012, excluding the 2009-2010 season. Of those enrolled, 927 (88%) had complete influenza virus testing, vaccination status, and demographic data obtained. Of 86 (9.3%) influenza virus-positive patients, 47 (55%) were vaccinated. Of 841 influenza virus-negative patients, 646 (76.8%) were vaccinated. Over 5 influenza seasons, IIV-3 was 58.4% effective (95% confidence interval [CI], 37.0%-75.6%) for the prevention of medically attended laboratory-confirmed influenza illness in adults aged ≥50 years and 58.4% effective (95% CI, 7.9%-81.1%) in adults aged ≥65 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccine was moderately effective in preventing influenza-associated medical care visits in older adults.

Interim estimates of 2013/14 influenza clinical severity and vaccine effectiveness in the prevention of laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalisation, Canada, February 2014

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Influenza vaccine effectiveness in Spain 2013/14: subtype-specific early estimates using the cycEVA study

Adjusted early estimates of the 2013/14 influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in Spain for all age groups was 35% (95% CI: -9 to 62), 33% (95% CI: -33 to 67) and 28% (95% CI: -33 to 61) against any influenza virus type, A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) viruses, respectively. For the population targeted for vaccination, the adjusted VE was 44% (95% CI: -11 to 72), 36% (95% CI: -64 to 75) and 42% (95% CI: -29 to 74), respectively. These preliminary results in Spain suggest a suboptimal protective effect of the vaccine against circulating influenza viruses.