A Comparative Study of Injury Severity Scales as Predictors of Mortality in Trauma Patients: Which Scale Is the Best?

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict postsurgical intra-abdominal infection in blunt abdominal trauma patients: A multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Intra-abdominal infection is a common complication of blunt abdominal trauma. Early detection and intervention can reduce the incidence of intra-abdominal infection and improve patients' prognoses. This study aims to construct a clinical model predicting postsurgical intra-abdominal infection after blunt abdominal trauma.

METHODS

This study is a retrospective analysis of 553 patients with blunt abdominal trauma from the Department of General Surgery of 7 medical centers (2011-2021). A 7:3 ratio was used to assign patients to the derivation and validation cohorts. Patients were divided into 2 groups based on whether intra-abdominal infection occurred after blunt abdominal trauma. Multivariate logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression were used to select variables to establish a nomogram. The nomogram was evaluated, and the validity of the model was further evaluated by the validation cohort.

RESULTS

A total of 113 were diagnosed with intra-abdominal infection (20.4%). Age, prehospital time, C-reactive protein, injury severity score, operation duration, intestinal injury, neutrophils, and antibiotic use were independent risk factors for intra-abdominal infection in blunt abdominal trauma patients (P < .05). The area under the receiver operating curve (area under the curve) of derivation cohort and validation cohort was 0.852 (95% confidence interval, 0.784-0.912) and 0.814 (95% confidence interval, 0.751-0.902). The P value for the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was .135 and .891 in the 2 cohorts. The calibration curve demonstrated that the nomogram had a high consistency between prediction and practical observation. The decision curve analysis also showed that the nomogram had a better potential for clinical application. To facilitate clinical application, we have developed an online at https://nomogramcgz.shinyapps.io/IAIrisk/.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram is helpful in predicting the risk of postoperative intra-abdominal infection in patients with blunt abdominal trauma and provides guidance for clinical decision-making and treatment.

Evaluation of the predictive effects of trauma scoring systems in colorectal injuries

INTRODUCTION

Colorectal injuries following traumas are significant causes of morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive effect of trauma scoring systems on mortality and morbidity in patients with post-traumatic colon injury.

METHODS

The records of 145 patients with colon trauma treated at Seyhan State Hospital between January 1, 2010, and January 1, 2020, were retrospectively analyzed. Injury Seriousness Score (ISS), Revised Trauma Score (RTS), Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS), and Colon Injury Score (CIS) scores were calculated for all patients. The predictive effects of scoring systems on primary outcomes of surgical treatment, complication rates, mortality, and anastomotic leaks were evaluated.

RESULTS

The mean age of the patients was 36.1 (SD ± 16.6), and the female/male ratio was 37/108. Anastomotic leakage occurred in 12 (8.2%) patients, and complications were observed in 57 (39.3%) patients. Seven (4.7%) patients died. A statistically significant relationship was observed between the increase in CIS and anastomotic leakage, morbidity, and mortality. Increases in ISS and decreases in RTS and TRISS were associated with increased morbidity and mortality, but these relationships were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

A significant relationship was observed between the increase in CIS and anastomotic leakage, morbidity, and mortality. The study suggests the need for a specific scoring system for evaluating the prognostic status in colon traumas, as ISS, RTS, and TRISS scores were not found to be significantly predictive of outcomes in this patient population.

Multifaceted Analysis of the Environmental Factors in Severely Injured Trauma: A 30-Day Survival Analysis

(1) Background: Most factors that predict the in-hospital survival rate in patients with severe trauma are patient-related factors; environmental factors are not currently considered important. Predicting the severity of trauma using environmental factors could be a reliable and easy-to-use method. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine whether environmental factors affect the survival in patients with severe trauma. (2) Methods: Medical records of patients who activated trauma team in the single regional trauma center, from 2016 to 2020, were retrospectively analyzed. After exclusion of young patients (<19 years old), cases of mild trauma (ISS < 16), and non-preventable deaths (trauma and injury severity score <25%), a total of 1706 patients were included in the study. (3) Results: In the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, older age, night compared with day, and high rainfall were identified as statistically significant environmental predictors of mortality due to severe trauma. The relationship between mortality and precipitation showed a linear relationship, while that between mortality and temperature showed an inverted U-shaped relationship. (4) Conclusions: Various environmental factors of trauma affect mortality in patients with severe trauma. In predicting the survival of patients with severe trauma, environmental factors are considered relatively less important, though they can be used effectively.

Predicting mortality in elderly trauma patients: a review of the current literature

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Advances in medical care allow patients to live longer, translating into a larger geriatric patient population. Adverse outcomes increase with older age, regardless of injury severity. Age, comorbidities, and physiologic deterioration have been associated with the increased mortality seen in geriatric trauma patients. As such, outcome prediction models are critical to guide clinical decision making and goals of care discussions for this population. The purpose of this review was to evaluate the various outcome prediction models for geriatric trauma patients.

RECENT FINDINGS

There are several prediction models used for predicting mortality in elderly trauma patients. The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) is a validated and accurate predictor of mortality in geriatric trauma patients and performs equally if not better to traditional scores such as the Trauma and Injury Severity Score. However, studies recommend medical comorbidities be included in outcome prediction models for geriatric patients to further improve performance.

SUMMARY

The ideal outcome prediction model for geriatric trauma patients has not been identified. The GTOS demonstrates accurate predictive ability in elderly trauma patients. The addition of medical comorbidities as a variable in outcome prediction tools may result in superior performance; however, additional research is warranted.

The Number of Organ System Injuries Is a Predictor of Intrahospital Mortality in Complete Cervical Spinal Cord Injury

OBJECTIVE

We sought to determine the extent to which polytrauma significantly impacts intrahospital mortality among patients with complete cervical spinal cord injury (cSCI) and to assess whether an organ system-based approach would be appropriate as a mortality predictor as compared with conventional standards to help guide prognosis and management.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed patient medical records and assessed the type of associated trauma at presentation. We then reviewed its correlation with mortality in patients who were admitted at our institution between 2012 and 2021. Types of associated trauma were classified under the following: traumatic brain injury, abdominal injury, thoracic injury, orthopedic injury, craniofacial injury, genitourinary injury, and vascular injury.

RESULTS

Thirty patients with complete cSCIs were identified. Increased organ system-based polytrauma had a statistically significant increase in intrahospital mortality (P = 0.01). Using the logistic regression model, for each additional gain in organ system-based trauma, patients had a 2.455 odds ratio of mortality (P = 0.03, 95% confidence interval 1.171-6.348). Zero other organ system injuries in the setting of cSCI provided a predictive mortality probability of 6.6%. One organ system-based trauma provided a 14.8% intrahospital mortality probability, 2 traumas provided a 29.9% mortality probability, 3 traumas provided a 51.1% mortality probability, and 4 other organ-system traumas provided a 72.0% mortality probability. The predictive prognostic accuracy of using number of organ system-based trauma to predict mortality probability was quantified at area under the curve = 0.8264 (95% confidence interval 0.6729-0.9799, P = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Our research shows that an increased number of organ system injuries is associated with greater intrahospital mortality in polytrauma patients with complete cSCI.

Predicting factors and incidence of preventable trauma induced mortality

Introduction

Trauma is one of the most common causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Since the definition of preventable death has been described many studies like current one were conducted to evaluate this issue.

Methods

This cohort retrospective study investigated archived medical files of trauma victims from 2017 to 2020 in a referral single-center trauma hospital. Registered demographic data, vital signs, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), timing of trauma and death, executed interventions, type and mechanism of trauma in addition to time errors, clinical mismanagements, and missed injuries were extracted. Injury severity score, revised trauma score, and probability of survival based on TRISS method for each case were calculated. Eventually preventable and non-preventable death were defined and compared.

Results

Finally from the all 413 trauma deaths 246(54.9 %) files were enrolled. Dead persons were from 18 to 95 years. Of all 189(76.8 %) were males. Analysis manifested 135(54.9 %) of all deaths were potentially preventable and the rest 49.1 % was non-preventable for expiration(p = 0.001). Data showed that from all variables systolic blood pressure ≥80 mmHg, respiratory rate >19 per minute, GCS>8, higher RTS, road traffic accidents and control of external bleeding were contributed to prediction of preventable trauma related mortality.

Conclusion

This study implied on that frequency of trauma related preventable death was regionally high and associating factors that could influence the number of these mortalities included systolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, GCS, revised trauma score, mechanism of trauma, and external bleeding of trauma patients.

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Preventable trauma related mortality is achieved to 55 % in this study while World Health Organization considered 20 % averagely.

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Time errors, missing injuries, and clinical management errors were not generally attributed to preventable trauma death.

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SBP>80, RR>19, GCS>8, road-traffic accident, and adequate control of external bleeding could rescue patients from death.