Annual variation in breeding success in boreal forest grouse: Four decades of monitoring reveals bottom-up drivers to be more important than predation

Knowledge of the temporal variation in reproductive success and its key driving factors is crucial in predicting animal population persistence. Few studies have examined the effects of a range of explanatory factors operating simultaneously on the same population over a long period. Based on 41 years of monitoring (1979-2019), we tested prevailing hypotheses about drivers of annual variation in breeding success in two sympatric species of boreal forest grouse-the capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) and the black grouse (T. tetrix)-in a 45 km2 boreal forest landscape. From counts in early August, we measured breeding success (chicks/hen) along with potential determining factors. We formulated five main hypotheses on causes of variation (hen condition, chick weather, chick food, predation, demographic characteristics) and derived 13 associated explanatory variables for analysis. We first tested the five hypotheses separately and then used model selection (AICc) to rank the best predictive models irrespective of hypotheses. Lastly, we used path analysis to illuminate potential causal relationships. Barring demographic characteristics, all hypotheses were supported, most strongly for chick food and predation. Among predictor variables, chick food (insect larvae and bilberry fruit crops), vole and fox abundances, the winter-NAO index, and temperature after hatching, had the strongest effect sizes in both species. Precipitation after hatching had no detectable effect. Model selection indicated bottom-up factors to be more important than predation, but confounding complicated interpretation. Path analysis suggested that the high explanatory power of bilberry fruiting was due not only to its direct positive effect on chick food quality but also to an indirect positive effect on vole abundance, which buffers predation. The two components of breeding success-proportion of hens with broods and number of chicks per brood-were uncorrelated, the former having the strongest effect. The two components had different ecological correlates that often varied asynchronously, resulting in overall breeding success fluctuating around low to moderate levels. Our study highlights the complexity of key explanatory drivers and the importance of considering multiple hypotheses of breeding success. Although chick food appeared to equal or surpass predation in explaining the annual variation in breeding success, predation may still be the overall limiting factor. Comparative and experimental studies of confounded variables (bilberry fruiting, voles, and larvae) are needed to disentangle causes of variation in breeding success of boreal forest grouse.

Iterative model predictions for wildlife populations impacted by rapid climate change

To improve understanding and management of the consequences of current rapid environmental change, ecologists advocate using long-term monitoring data series to generate iterative near-term predictions of ecosystem responses. This approach allows scientific evidence to increase rapidly and management strategies to be tailored simultaneously. Iterative near-term forecasting may therefore be particularly useful for adaptive monitoring of ecosystems subjected to rapid climate change. Here, we show how to implement near-term forecasting in the case of a harvested population of rock ptarmigan in high-arctic Svalbard, a region subjected to the largest and most rapid climate change on Earth. We fitted state-space models to ptarmigan counts from point transect distance sampling during 2005-2019 and developed two types of predictions: (1) explanatory predictions to quantify the effect of potential drivers of ptarmigan population dynamics, and (2) anticipatory predictions to assess the ability of candidate models of increasing complexity to forecast next-year population density. Based on the explanatory predictions, we found that a recent increasing trend in the Svalbard rock ptarmigan population can be attributed to major changes in winter climate. Currently, a strong positive effect of increasing average winter temperature on ptarmigan population growth outweighs the negative impacts of other manifestations of climate change such as rain-on-snow events. Moreover, the ptarmigan population may compensate for current harvest levels. Based on the anticipatory predictions, the near-term forecasting ability of the models improved nonlinearly with the length of the time series, but yielded good forecasts even based on a short time series. The inclusion of ecological predictors improved forecasts of sharp changes in next-year population density, demonstrating the value of ecosystem-based monitoring. Overall, our study illustrates the power of integrating near-term forecasting in monitoring systems to aid understanding and management of wildlife populations exposed to rapid climate change. We provide recommendations for how to improve this approach.

Limited indirect fitness benefits of male group membership in a lekking species

In group living species, individuals may gain the indirect fitness benefits characterizing kin selection when groups contain close relatives. However, tests of kin selection have primarily focused on cooperatively breeding and eusocial species, whereas its importance in other forms of group living remains to be fully understood. Lekking is a form of grouping where males display on small aggregated territories, which females then visit to mate. As females prefer larger aggregations, territorial males might gain indirect fitness benefits if their presence increases the fitness of close relatives. Previous studies have tested specific predictions of kin selection models using measures such as group-level relatedness. However, a full understanding of the contribution of kin selection in the evolution of group living requires estimating individuals' indirect fitness benefits across multiple sites and years. Using behavioural and genetic data from the black grouse (Tetrao tetrix), we show that the indirect fitness benefits of group membership were very small because newcomers joined leks containing few close relatives who had limited mating success. Males' indirect fitness benefits were higher in yearlings during increasing population density but marginally changed the variation in male mating success. Kin selection acting through increasing group size is therefore unlikely to contribute substantially to the evolution and maintenance of lekking in this black grouse population.

Age-dependent inbreeding risk and offspring fitness costs in female black grouse

Dispersal is an important mechanism used to avoid inbreeding. However, dispersal may only be effective for part of an individual's lifespan since, post-dispersal individuals that breed over multiple reproductive events may risk mating with kin of the philopatric sex as they age. We tested this hypothesis in black grouse Tetrao tetrix, and show that yearling females never mated with close relatives whereas older females did. However, matings were not with direct kin suggesting that short-distance dispersal to sites containing kin and subsequent overlap of reproductive lifespans between males and females were causing this pattern. Chick mass was lower when kinship was high, suggesting important fitness costs associated with inbred matings. This study shows that increased inbreeding risk might be a widespread yet rarely considered cost of ageing.