Fifty years of spring censuses in black grouse (Lyrurus tetrix) in the High Fens (Belgium): did the rabies vaccination has a negative impact on a fox prey population?

Since 2017, a reinforcement programme was developed to save the last, endangered, Belgian population of black grouse (Lyrurus tetrix), in the High Fens Natural Park. To improve the success of this programme, an analysis of past data of this population was undertaken to understand the causes of its past decline. A time series analysis was applied, using annual spring male census data recorded between 1967 and 2016. In the period 1967-1993, there was a fluctuation around an equilibrium of a population of ca. 40-45 males. The peak of 85 males observed in 1971 was probably due to a succession of several favourable years in terms of environmental conditions, albeit without an exceptional annual growth rate. It seems that fox density, by using the occurrence of rabies as a proxy, has an impact on the black grouse population. After 1993, the population dynamic changed drastically, decreasing continuously until finally reaching quasi-extinction. On average, the population lost 15.4% of its size each year. Climate models, applied in previous studies to explain these population trends in the High Fens, failed to describe this major modification in this population's dynamic and its recent decline. We suggest that this negative effect was mainly induced by a significant increase in predation by red fox (Vulpes vulpes), whose abundance has increased considerably since the 1990s, in particular, as a consequence of the eradication of fox rabies. We also discuss alternative hypotheses, such as the impact of other predator species, modification of the natural environment and climatic modifications.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10344-023-01642-w.

The Cantabrian capercaillie: A population on the edge

The capercaillie Tetrao urogallus - the world's largest grouse- is a circumboreal forest species, which only two remaining populations in Spain: one in the Cantabrian mountains in the west and the other in the Pyrenees further east. Both have shown severe declines, especially in the Cantabrian population, which has recently been classified as "Critically Endangered". To develop management plans, information on demographic parameters is necessary to understand and forecast population dynamics. We used spatial capture-recapture (SCR) modeling and non-invasive DNA samples to estimate the current population size in the whole Cantabrian mountain range. In addition, for the assessment of population status, we analyzed the population trajectory over the last 42 years (1978-2019) at 196 leks on the Southern slope of the range, using an integrated population model with a Dail-Madsen model at its core, combined with a multistate capture-recapture model for survival and a Poisson regression for productivity. For 2019, we estimate the size of the entire population at 191 individuals (95% BCI 165-222) for an estimated 60 (48-78) females and 131 (109-157) males. Since the 1970s, our study estimates a shrinkage of the population range by 83%. The population at the studied leks in 2019 was at about 10% of the size estimated for 1978. Apparent annual survival was estimated at 0.707 (0.677-0.735), and per-capita recruitment at 0.233 (0.207-0.262), and insufficient to maintain a stable population. We suggest work to improve the recruitment (and survival) and manage these mountain forests for capercaillie conservation. Also, in the future, management should assess the genetic viability of this population.

Lethal interactions among forest-grouse predators are numerous, motivated by hunger and carcasses, and their impacts determined by the demographic value of the victims

New vertebrate communities are emerging in Europe following the recovery of multiple native predators to highly anthropized landscapes where predator control is still prevalent. While the lack of reference points for these communities creates novel challenges for conservationists and wildlife managers, they also provide opportunities to further our understanding of species interactions. Despite a growing body of evidence, many aspects of interactions among predators remain poorly understood, impairing our ability to anticipate the effects of such changes in predator communities. Through a systematic literature review, we gathered all the available evidence concerning the existence, strength, and demographic impacts of lethal predator interactions among forest-grouse predators in Europe. We found a highly interconnected predator community, with 44 pairwise lethal interactions among 12 taxa. Three of these resulted in some degree of population suppression of the victim, while another three did not. However, most interactions (38) have not been evaluated for population suppression. Additionally, we highlight how predators interact simultaneously with a large range of other predators and identified at least two further taxa possibly suppressed through the combined impacts of multiple predators. We propose that interactions causing demographic suppression are characterized by impacts on individuals with high survival elasticity and that they are motivated by food limitation and additionally, in mammals, by competition for carcasses. Predator interactions, and our still poor understanding of them, introduce large uncertainties to conservation actions based on the management of predator abundances, which should be carefully evaluated.

Long-Term Trends of Hazel Grouse (Tetrastes bonasia) in the Bohemian Forest (Šumava), Czech Republic, 1972–2019

The population dynamics of Hazel Grouse were studied by presence/absence recording at stationary sites along fixed routes (110 km) in the central part of Šumava (Bohemian Forest, Czech Republic) from 1972 to 2019. The 100 km2 study area covered altitudes between 600 m (Rejštejn) and 1253 m above sea level (Mt. Sokol). Our database contained indices of Hazel Grouse occupancy: positive sites/visited sites for a yearly increasing number of Hazel Grouse occurrence sites (n = 134) for 48 years. We used a loglinear Poisson regression method to analyze the long-term population trend for Hazel Grouse in the study area. In the period from 1972 to 2006 we found a stable Hazel Grouse population (p = 0.83). From 2006–2007 to 2019, the population index dropped (−3.8% per year, p < 0.05). This decline is assumed to be influenced by habitat loss due to succession, resulting in older, more open forest stands, by strongly increasing forestry and windstorm “Kyrill”, followed by clear cutting, bark beetle damage, and the removal of pioneer trees in spruce plantations, which diminished buds and catkins, the dominant winter food of Hazel Grouse. The influence of disturbance by increasing tourist activities and/or predation is also discussed. Our results could help to optimize the conservation efforts for Hazel Grouse in the Bohemian Forest.

Evaluation of Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Predation Risk to Forest Grouse Nests in the Central European Mountain Regions

We evaluated the spatiotemporal patterns of predation risk on black grouse nests using artificial nests that were monitored by camera traps in mountain areas with a small extant (Ore Mts.) and already extinct (Jeseníky Mts.) black grouse population. The overall predation rate of artificial nests was 56% and we found significant differences in survival rate courses over time between both study areas (68% Ore Mts. vs. 41%, Jeseníky Mts.). Within the time required for successful egg incubation (25 days), nest survival probability was 0.32 in the Ore Mts. and 0.59 in Jeseníky Mts. The stone marten (Martes foina) was the primary nest predator in both study areas (39% in total), followed by common raven (Corvus corax, 25%) and red fox (Vulpes vulpes, 22%). The proportion of depredated nests did not differ between habitat types (i.e., open forest interior, clearing, forest edge), but we recorded the effect of interaction of study area and habitat. In Ore Mts., the main nest predator was common raven with seven records (37%). The Eurasian jay (Garrulus glandarius) was responsible for most predation attempts in Jeseníky Mts. (five records, i.e., 83%), while in the Ore Mts., most predation attempts were done by red fox (six records, i.e., 38%).

No evidence for spatial variation in predation risk following restricted-area fox culling

Background

Predation and predator abundance may significantly affect bird populations, especially ground nesting species, because nest predation is often the major cause of nest failure. Predator control by means of culling is frequently employed to benefit threatened prey species or to increase the abundance of small game species for hunting. The red fox (Vulpes vulpes), a generalist mesopredator of global relevance, is a major target of predator control. Commonly, in central Europe, red fox culling efforts intended to benefit prey species remain restricted to small areas. It is unclear, however, whether such restricted-area culling effectively lowers predation risk at a site or whether red fox abundance is more important than culling in shaping predation risk. We conducted an experiment using 273 camera supervised artificial nests at multiple study sites in clusters of hunting concessions with or without targeted fox culling in a fragmented montane forest landscape in Germany.

Results

Using generalized additive models, we assessed whether incentivized recreational culling of red foxes was associated with local reductions in an index of predation risk and fox occurrence probability, or whether both were explained by red fox abundance instead. Final models indicated that restricted-area culling of red foxes was not associated with local reductions in predation risk, nor lower probability of a fox sighting, even for the plots with the largest hunting bags. Predation risk at a plot instead appeared to be driven by variation in the abundance of red foxes in the landscape surrounding the plots. After accounting for fox abundance, we found no additional relationship of artificial nest predation risk with landscape configuration.

Conclusions

Our results imply that the scale and intensity of predator control achieved by incentivized recreational hunting was ineffective at altering fox abundance patterns and associated predation risk. We thus find no evidence to support incentives for uncoordinated recreational red fox culling as a conservation measure.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12898-019-0235-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.