The end of AIDS: possibility or pipe dream? A tale of transitions

Problematising the Discourse of 'Post-AIDS'

This paper reflects on the meanings of 'post-AIDS' in the Global North and South. I bring together contemporary arguments to suggest that the notion of 'post-AIDS' is, at best, misplaced, not least because its starting point remains a biotechnical one. Drawing on aspects of the sub-Saharan African experience, this essay suggests that, despite significant shifts in access to antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV continues to be fundamentally shaped by economic determinants and social and cultural practices. In this essay, I question the certainty of the discourse of (Western biomedical) 'positive progress' (Johnson et al. 2015), which underpins the 'post-AIDS' narrative, and suggest that living with HIV and AIDS in our contemporary global context is a life lived with ongoing complexity, stigma and chronicity. I suggest that HIV in the Global North shares many characteristics with HIV in the Global South yet differs in significant ways, not least in the fact that a resource-rich context generates an environment where health and social care support is possible, and, mostly, usual. In both contexts, however, the experience of living with a highly stigmatized illness with no cure in both the Global South and North suggests that this is a point of shared experience.

Challenges and emerging opportunities for the HIV prevention, treatment and care cascade in men who have sex with men in Asia Pacific

In Asia Pacific, most countries have expanded HIV treatment guidelines to include all those with HIV infection and adopted antiretroviral treatment for prevention (TFP) as a blanket strategy for HIV control. Although the overall epidemic development associated with this focus is positive, the HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men (MSM) is continuing unperturbed without any signs of decline or reversal. This raises doubt about whether TFP as a blanket HIV prevention policy is the right approach. This paper reviews currently available biomedical HIV prevention strategies, national HIV prevention policies and guidelines from selected countries and published data on the HIV cascade in MSM. No evidence for efficacy of TFP in protecting MSM from HIV infection was found. The rationale for this approach is based on assumptions about biological plausibility and external validity of latency-based efficacy found in heterosexual couples. This is different from the route and timing of HIV transmission in MSM. New HIV infections in MSM principally occur in chains of acutely HIV-infected highly sexually active young men, in whom acquisition and transmission are correlated in space and time. By the time TFP renders its effects, most new HIV infections in MSM will have already occurred. On a global level, less than 6% of all reports regarding the HIV care cascade from 1990 to 2016 included MSM, and only 2.3% concerned MSM in low/middle-income countries. Only one report originated from Asia Pacific. Generally, HIV cascade data in MSM show a sobering picture of TFP in engaging and retaining MSM along the continuum. Widening the cascade with a preventive extension, including pre-exposure prophylaxis, the first proven efficacious and only biomedical HIV prevention strategy in MSM, will be instrumental in achieving HIV epidemic control in this group.

Leadership emergence: the application of the Cynefin framework during a bio-social HIV/AIDS risk-reduction pilot

This article focuses on the utility of a knowledge management heuristic called the Cynefin framework, which was applied during an ongoing pilot intervention in the Limpopo province, South Africa. The intervention aimed to identify and then consolidate low-cost, innovative bio-social responses to reinforce the biomedical opportunities that now have the potential to "end AIDS by 2030″. The Cynefin framework is designed to enable leaders to identify specific decision-making domain typologies as a mechanism to maximise the effectiveness of leadership responses to both opportunities and challenges that emerge during interventions. In this instance the Cynefin framework was used to: (1) provide an indication to the project managers whether the early stages of the intervention had been effective; (2) provide the participants an opportunity to identify emergent knowledge action spaces (opportunities and challenges); and (3) categorise them into appropriate decision-making domains in preparation for the next phases of the intervention. A qualitative methodology was applied to collect and analyse the findings. The findings indicate that applying the Cynefin framework enabled the participants to situate knowledge action spaces into appropriate decision-making domains. From this participatory evaluation a targeted management strategy was developed for the next phases of the initiative. The article concludes by arguing that the Cynefin framework was an effective mechanism for situating emergent knowledge action spaces into appropriate decision-making domains, which enabled them to prepare for the next phases of the intervention. This process of responsive decision making could have utility in other development related interventions.

The epistemology of AIDS in South Africa: lessons from three scenario projects

This article reviews the methodology of future scenario-building in the context of HIV and AIDS in Africa. It considers three scenario studies conducted in the past decade: UNAIDS (2005), Metropolitan Holdings (2006) and the AIDS Governance scenarios (2015). The article is a critical reflection of Future Studies epistemology which claims to contribute a unique heuristic niche in the study of AIDS. The article offers several methodological insights: (1) despite claims to the contrary, scenario methodology remains profoundly influenced by existing political and research agenda; instead of denying these, scenarists should acknowledge this; (2) the utility of scenario studies is strongly influenced by their unit of analysis and their time frame, which determine their applicability and therefore their policy relevance; and (3) scenario planners should guard against perpetuating the myth that this methodology is a crystal ball into the future because they are powerful tools for strategic planning about the present, rather than the distant future. In addition to these methodological insights, the article finds that future scenario studies are useful in identifying significant discursive and policy shifts in the AIDS response.

What does sustainability mean in the HIV and AIDS response?

Immense progress has been made in the fight against HIV and AIDS. Achieving and exceeding the AIDS targets for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) was accomplished, in large part, due to an unprecedented financial investment from the international community. Following an $800 million dip in donor disbursements in 2010, the discourse has since shifted to the need for greater sustainability of funding. But what does sustainability mean? Current efforts focus heavily on fiscal imperatives such as increasing domestic funding. This is important - needs are increasing at a faster rate than donor funding, especially with increased treatment coverage. The problem is that measures of financial sustainability tell very little about the actual sustainability of specific programmes, disease trajectories or enabling environments. Recognising that current definitions of sustainability lack clarity and depth, we offer a new six-tenet conceptualisation of what sustainability means in the HIV and AIDS response: (1) financial, (2) epidemiological, (3) political, (4) structural, (5) programmatic, and (6) human rights. Based on these, we examine examples of donor transitions for their approach to sustainability, including PEPFAR in South Africa, the Global Fund in Eastern Europe, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in India (Avahan). We conclude that sustainability must be understood within a broader framework beyond funding stability. We also recommend that certain interventions, such as programming for key populations, may have to continue to receive external support even if affected countries can afford to pay.

Reducing the overall HIV-burden in South Africa: is 'reviving ABC' an appropriate fit for a complex, adaptive epidemiological HIV landscape?

This article questions the recommendations to 'revive ABC (abstain, be faithful, condomise)' as a mechanism to 'educate' people in South Africa about HIV prevention as the South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey, 2012, suggests. We argue that ABC was designed as a response to a particular context which has now radically changed. In South Africa the contemporary context reflects the mass roll-out of antiretroviral treatment; significant bio-medical knowledge gains; a generalised population affected by HIV that has made sense of and embodied those diverse experiences; and a government committed to confronting the epidemic. We suggest that the situation can now be plausibly conceptualised as a complex, adaptive epidemiological landscape that could benefit from an expansion of the existing, 'descriptive' prevention paradigm towards strategies that focus on the dynamics of transmission. We argue for this shift by proposing a theoretical framework based on complexity theory and pattern management. We interrogate one educational prevention heuristic that emphasises the importance of risk-reduction through the lens of transmission, called A-3B-4C-T. We argue that this type of approach provides expansive opportunities for people to engage with the epidemic in contextualised, innovative ways that supersede the opportunities afforded by ABC. We then suggest that framing the prevention imperative through the lens of 'dynamic prevention' at scale opens more immediate opportunities, as well as developing a future-oriented mind-set, than the 'descriptive prevention' parameters can facilitate. The parameters of the 'descriptive prevention' paradigm, that maintain - and partially reinforce - the presence of ABC, do not have the flexibility required to develop the armamentarium of tools required to contribute to the management of a complex epidemiological landscape. Uncritically adhering to both the 'descriptive paradigm', and ABC, represents an historically dislocated form of prevention - with restrictive options for reducing the overall burden of HIV-related challenges in South Africa.

Reconciling the science and policy divide: The reality of scaling up antiretroviral therapy in South Africa

With the world’s largest national treatment programme and over 340 000 incident cases annually, the response to HIV in South Africa is hotly contested and there is sometimes a dissonance between activism, science and policy. Too often, policy, whilst well intentioned, is informed only by epidemiological data. The state of the healthcare system and sociocultural factors drive and shape the epidemic and its response. By analysis of the financial, infrastructural, human resources for health, and governance landscape in South Africa, we assess the feasibility and associated costs of implementing a universal test and treat programme. We situate a universal test and treat strategy within the governance, fiscal, human resources for health, and infrastructural landscape in South Africa. We argue that the response to the epidemic must be forward thinking, progressive and make the most of the benefits from treatment as prevention. However, the logistics of implementing a universal test and treat strategy mean that this option is problematic in the short term. We recommend a health systems strengthening HIV treatment and prevention approach that includes scaling up treatment (for treatment and prevention) along with a range of other prevention strategies.

Expanding the prevention armamentarium portfolio: a framework for promoting HIV-Conversant Communities within a complex, adaptive epidemiological landscape

The article describes a design journey that culminated in an HIV-Conversant Community Framework that is now being piloted in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. The objective of the initiative is to reduce the aggregate community viral load by building capacity at multiple scales that strengthens peoples' HIV-related navigational skill sets-while simultaneously opening a 'chronic situation' schema. The framework design is based upon a transdisciplinary methodological combination that synthesises ideas and constructs from complexity science and the management sciences as a vehicle through which to re-conceptualise HIV prevention. This resulted in a prototype that included the following constructs: managing HIV-prevention in a complex, adaptive epidemiological landscape; problematising and increasing the scope of the HIV knowledge armamentarium through education that focuses on the viral load and Langerhans cells; disruptive innovation and safe-fail probes followed by the facilitation of path creations and pattern management implementation techniques. These constructs are underpinned by a 'middle-ground' prevention approach which is designed to bridge the prevention 'fault line', enabling a multi-ontology conceptualisation of the challenge to be developed. The article concludes that stepping outside of the 'ordered' epistemological parameters of the existing prevention 'messaging' mind-set towards a more systemic approach that emphasises agency, structure and social practices as a contribution to 'ending AIDS by 2030' is worthy of further attention if communities are to engage more adaptively with the dynamic HIV landscape in South Africa.