Urgent endoscopy in severe non-variceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage: does the Glasgow-Blatchford score help endoscopists?

Endoscopist's Judgment Is as Useful as Risk Scores for Predicting Outcome in Peptic Ulcer Bleeding: A Multicenter Study

Background: Guidelines recommend using prognostic scales for risk stratification in patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. It remains unclear whether risk scores offer greater accuracy than clinical evaluation. Objective: Compare the diagnostic accuracy of the endoscopist’s judgment against different risk-scoring systems (Rockall, Glasgow–Blatchford, Baylor and the Cedars–Sinai scores) for predicting outcomes in peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB). Methods: Between February 2006 and April 2010 we prospectively recruited 401 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding; 225 received endoscopic treatment. The endoscopist recorded his/her subjective assessment (“endoscopist judgment”) of the risk of rebleeding and death immediately after endoscopy for each patient. Independent evaluators calculated the different scores. Area under the receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were calculated for rebleeding and mortality. Results: The areas under ROC curve of the endoscopist’s clinical judgment for rebleeding (0.67–0.75) and mortality (0.84–0.9) were similar or even superior to the different risk scores in both the whole group and in patients receiving endoscopic therapy. Conclusions: The accuracy of the currently available risk scores for predicting rebleeding and mortality in PUB patients was moderate and not superior to the endoscopist’s judgment. More precise prognostic scales are needed.

The Role of History of Gastro-Duodenal Ulcer in Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

BACKGROUND

Some scoring systems have been introduced to predict the need for performing urgent endoscopy in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). However, in an emergency situation, this intervention is insufficient and cannot easily provide the required treatment.

AIM

To identify new risk factors that can predict the need for endoscopic intervention (EI) in UGIB patients.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cross-sectional study. Patients with UGIB admitted from April 2011 to August 2014 were included. The proportion of cases requiring EI and clinical factors (age, gender, antiplatelet/anticoagulant therapy, history of gastro-duodenal ulcer (GDU), systolic blood pressure, heart rate, hemoglobin, mean corpuscular volume, blood urea nitrogen-creatinine ratio (BUN/Cr ratio), prothrombin time-international normalized ratio, and Glasgow-Blatchford Score (GBS) were analyzed using logistic regression models.

RESULT

Of 378 patients who were included in this study, 180 were found to be with GDU. The proportion of cases requiring EI was significantly higher in those with GDU than in other causes except variceal bleeding (53.5 vs. 37.0%, p < 0.01). Multivariate analysis revealed that a history of GDU was an independent risk factor (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.06-3.00) in addition to BUN/Cr ratio (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.03) and GBS (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.08-1.33).

CONCLUSION

A history of GDU was an independent risk factor for predicting the need for EI in UGIB in addition to BUN/Cr ratio and GBS.

International prospective observational study of upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage: Does weekend admission affect outcome?

Introduction

Out of hours admissions have higher mortality for many conditions but upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage studies have produced variable outcomes.

Methods

Prospective study of 12 months consecutive admissions of upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage from four international high volume centres. Admission period (weekdays, weeknights or weekends), demographics, haemodynamic parameters, laboratory results, endoscopy findings, further procedures and 30-day mortality were recorded. Five upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage risk scores were calculated.

Results

2118 patients, 60% male, median age 66 years were studied. Compared with patients presenting on weekdays, patients presenting at weekends had no significant differences in comorbidity, pulse, systolic BP, risk scores, frequency of peptic ulcers or varices. Those presenting on weekdays had lower haemoglobin (p = 0.007) and were more likely to have a normal endoscopy (p < 0.01). Time to endoscopy was less for weeknight presentation (p = 0.001). Sixty-seven per cent of those presenting on weekdays, 75% on weeknights and 60% at weekends had endoscopy within 24 h. Transfusion requirements, need for endoscopic therapy or surgery/embolization, rebleeding rates (6.1%) and mortality (7.2%) did not differ with presentation time.

Conclusion

This multi-centre international study in large centres found no difference in demographics, comorbidity or haemodynamic stability and no increase in mortality for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage out of hours.

The Predictive Value of Preendoscopic Risk Scores to Predict Adverse Outcomes in Emergency Department Patients With Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

Risk stratification of emergency department (ED) patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) using preendoscopic risk scores can aid ED physicians in disposition decision-making. We conducted a systematic review to assess the predictive value of preendoscopic risk scores for 30-day serious adverse events.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception to March 2015. We included studies involving adult ED UGIB patients evaluating preendoscopic risk scores and excluded reviews, case reports, and animal studies. The composite outcome included 30-day mortality, recurrent bleeding, and need for intervention. In two phases (screening and full review), two reviewers independently screened articles for inclusion and extracted patient-level data. The consensus data were used for analysis. We reported sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratios with 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

We identified 3,173 articles, of which 16 were included: three studied Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS); one studied clinical Rockall score (cRockall); two studied AIMS65; six compared GBS and cRockall; three compared GBS, a modification of the GBS, and cRockall; and one compared the GBS and AIMS65. Overall, the sensitivity and specificity of the GBS were 0.98 and 0.16, respectively; for the cRockall they were 0.93 and 0.24, respectively; and for the AIMS65 they were 0.79 and 0.61, respectively. The GBS with a cutoff point of 0 had a sensitivity of 0.99 and a specificity of 0.08.

CONCLUSION

The GBS with a cutoff point of 0 was superior over other cutoff points and risk scores for identifying low-risk patients but had a very low specificity. None of the risk scores identified by our systematic review were robust and, hence, cannot be recommended for use in clinical practice. Future prospective studies are needed to develop robust new scores for use in ED patients with UGIB.

Early lactate clearance for predicting active bleeding in critically ill patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a retrospective study

Not all patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) require emergency endoscopy. Lactate clearance has been suggested as a parameter for predicting patient outcomes in various critical care settings. This study investigates whether lactate clearance can predict active bleeding in critically ill patients with UGIB. This single-center, retrospective, observational study included critically ill patients with UGIB who met all of the following criteria: admission to the emergency department (ED) from April 2011 to August 2014; had blood samples for lactate evaluation at least twice during the ED stay; and had emergency endoscopy within 6 h of ED presentation. The main outcome was active bleeding detected with emergency endoscopy. Classification and regression tree (CART) analyses were performed using variables associated with active bleeding to derive a prediction rule for active bleeding in critically ill UGIB patients. A total of 154 patients with UGIB were analyzed, and 31.2 % (48/154) had active bleeding. In the univariate analysis, lactate clearance was significantly lower in patients with active bleeding than in those without active bleeding (13 vs. 29 %, P < 0.001). Using the CART analysis, a prediction rule for active bleeding is derived, and includes three variables: lactate clearance; platelet count; and systolic blood pressure at ED presentation. The rule has 97.9 % (95 % CI 90.2-99.6 %) sensitivity with 32.1 % (28.6-32.9 %) specificity. Lactate clearance may be associated with active bleeding in critically ill patients with UGIB, and may be clinically useful as a component of a prediction rule for active bleeding.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk scores: Who, when and why?

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) remains a significant cause of hospital admission. In order to stratify patients according to the risk of the complications, such as rebleeding or death, and to predict the need of clinical intervention, several risk scores have been proposed and their use consistently recommended by international guidelines. The use of risk scoring systems in early assessment of patients suffering from UGIB may be useful to distinguish high-risks patients, who may need clinical intervention and hospitalization, from low risk patients with a lower chance of developing complications, in which management as outpatients can be considered. Although several scores have been published and validated for predicting different outcomes, the most frequently cited ones are the Rockall score and the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS). While Rockall score, which incorporates clinical and endoscopic variables, has been validated to predict mortality, the GBS, which is based on clinical and laboratorial parameters, has been studied to predict the need of clinical intervention. Despite the advantages previously reported, their use in clinical decisions is still limited. This review describes the different risk scores used in the UGIB setting, highlights the most important research, explains why and when their use may be helpful, reflects on the problems that remain unresolved and guides future research with practical impact.

Novel nasogastric tube-related criteria for urgent endoscopy in nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

BACKGROUND

Patients with active upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) require urgent endoscopy, but appropriate criteria for urgent endoscopy in these patients have not yet been established.

AIMS

The goal of this study is to establish a simple system for the selection of UGIB patients who may benefit from urgent endoscopy.

METHODS

Of the 335 patients who required emergency hospitalization for UGIB from May 2010 to March 2012 at Nagoya Daini Red Cross Hospital, 166 patients who underwent placement of a nasogastric tube (NGT) were retrospectively identified. Active bleeding on the endoscopic image was used as an endpoint that reflected the need for urgent endoscopy.

RESULTS

The ratio of the heart rate to the systolic blood pressure (HR/SBP ratio) and aspiration of fresh or dark red fluid from the NGT [NGT(+)] were significant predictors of active bleeding in the univariate analysis [HR/SBP ratio, P=0.016; NGT(+), P<0.001]. The HR/SBP ratio [odds ratio (OR) 8.118; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.696-38.850; P=0.009] and NGT(+) (OR 4.630; 95% CI 2.092-10.204; P<0.001) were also significantly associated with active bleeding in the multivariate analysis. Moreover, receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed a setting with HR/SBP ratio>1.4 or NGT(+) to be optimal criteria to predict active bleeding. These criteria were associated with a sensitivity of 64.9% (24/37) and a specificity of 76.7% (99/129) for the prediction of active bleeding; consequently, they are superior to the sensitivity and specificity of previously proposed criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

A novel and simple criteria system using NGT(+) and HR/SBP is a good predictor of the need for urgent endoscopy in patients with nonvariceal UGIB.