Value of the different prognostic systems and biological markers for predicting severity and progression of acute pancreatitis

Early prediction of acute gallstone pancreatitis severity: a novel machine learning model based on CT features and open access online prediction platform

BACKGROUND

Early diagnosis of acute gallstone pancreatitis severity (GSP) is challenging in clinical practice. We aimed to investigate the efficacy of CT features and radiomics for the early prediction of acute GSP severity.

METHODS

We retrospectively recruited GSP patients who underwent CT imaging within 48 h of admission from tertiary referral centre. Radiomics and CT features were extracted from CT scans. The clinical and CT features were selected by the random forest algorithm to develop the ML GSP model for the identification of severity of GSP (mild or severe), and its predictive efficacy was compared with radiomics model. The predictive performance was assessed by the area under operating characteristic curve. Calibration curve and decision curve analysis were performed to demonstrate the classification performance and clinical efficacy. Furthermore, we built a web-based open access GSP severity calculator. The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05498961).

RESULTS

A total of 301 patients were enrolled. They were randomly assigned into the training (n = 210) and validation (n = 91) cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. The random forest algorithm identified the level of calcium ions, WBC count, urea level, combined cholecystitis, gallbladder wall thickening, gallstones, and hydrothorax as the seven predictive factors for severity of GSP. In the validation cohort, the areas under the curve for the radiomics model and ML GSP model were 0.841 (0.757-0.926) and 0.914 (0.851-0.978), respectively. The calibration plot shows that the ML GSP model has good consistency between the prediction probability and the observation probability. Decision curve analysis showed that the ML GSP model had high clinical utility.

CONCLUSIONS

We built the ML GSP model based on clinical and CT image features and distributed it as a free web-based calculator. Our results indicated that the ML GSP model is useful for predicting the severity of GSP.

Clinical significance of reactive thrombocytosis in the course of acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Reactive thrombocytosis occurs secondary to systemic infections, inflammatory, and other conditions. The relationship between thrombocytosis and acute pancreatitis (AP) in inflammatory diseases is uncertain. This study aimed to evaluate the clinical significance of thrombocytosis in AP patients during hospitalization.

METHODS

Subjects within 48 h of AP onset were consecutively enrolled over 6 years. Platelet counts of ≥ 450,000/µL were defined as thrombocytosis, < 100,000/µL as thrombocytopenia, and other counts as normal. We compared clinical characteristics, including the rate of severe AP (SAP) assessed by the Japanese Severity Score; blood markers, including hematologic and inflammatory factors and pancreatic enzymes during hospitalization; and pancreatic complications and outcomes in the three groups.

RESULTS

A total of 108 patients were enrolled. Although, SAP was more common in patients with thrombocytosis and thrombocytopenia (87.9% and 100%, respectively), the differences in lymphocytes and C-reactive protein, lactase dehydrogenase, and antithrombin levels, which are factors of the systemic inflammatory response, and the mean platelet volume, an indicator of platelet activation, were observed among patients with thrombocytosis and thrombocytopenia during hospitalization. Regarding pancreatic complications and outcomes, patients with thrombocytosis and thrombocytopenia had higher acute necrotic collection (ANC), pancreatic necrosis, intestinal paralysis, respiratory dysfunction, and pancreatic-related infection levels than patients with normal platelet levels. The relationship between pancreatic complications and thrombocytosis was assessed by multivariate logistic regression; the odds ratios for development of ANC, pancreatic necrosis and pancreatic-related infections were 7.360, 3.735 and 9.815, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Thrombocytosis during hospitalization for AP suggests development of local pancreatic complications and pancreatic-related infections.

Gene Expression Profiling: Identification of Novel Pathways and Potential Biomarkers in Severe Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Determining the risk of developing severe acute pancreatitis (AP) on presentation to hospital is difficult but vital to enable early management decisions that reduce morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to determine global gene expression profiles of patients with different acute pancreatitis severity to identify genes and molecular mechanisms involved in the pathogenesis of severe AP.

STUDY DESIGN

AP patients (n = 87) were recruited within 24 hours of admission to the Emergency Department and were confirmed to exhibit at least 2 of the following features: (1) abdominal pain characteristic of AP, (2) serum amylase and/or lipase more than 3-fold the upper laboratory limit considered normal, and/or (3) radiographically demonstrated AP on CT scan. Severity was defined according to the Revised Atlanta classification. Thirty-two healthy volunteers were also recruited and peripheral venous blood was collected for performing RNA-Seq.

RESULTS

In severe AP, 422 genes (185 upregulated, 237 downregulated) were significantly differentially expressed when compared with moderately severe and mild cases. Pathway analysis revealed changes in specific innate and adaptive immune, sepsis-related, and surface modification pathways in severe AP. Data-driven approaches revealed distinct gene expression groups (endotypes), which were not entirely overlapping with the clinical Atlanta classification. Importantly, severe and moderately severe AP patients clustered away from healthy controls, whereas mild AP patients did not exhibit any clear separation, suggesting distinct underlying mechanisms that may influence severity of AP.

CONCLUSION

There were significant differences in gene expression affecting the severity of AP, revealing a central role of specific immunological pathways. Despite the existence of patient endotypes, a 4-gene transcriptomic signature (S100A8, S100A9, MMP25, and MT-ND4L) was determined that can predict severe AP with an accuracy of 64%.

Establishment of Early Multi-Indicator Prediction Models of Moderately Severe Acute Pancreatitis and Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Background

It is critical to accurately identify patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and moderately SAP (MSAP) in a timely manner. The study was done to establish two early multi-indicator prediction models of MSAP and SAP.

Methods

Clinical data of 469 patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) between 2015 and 2020, at the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, and between 2012 and 2020, at the Affiliated Union Hospital of Fujian Medical University, were retrospectively analyzed. The unweighted predictive score (unwScore) and weighted predictive score (wScore) for MSAP and SAP were derived using logistic regression analysis and were compared with four existing systems using receiver operating characteristic curves.

Results

Seven prognostic indicators were selected for incorporation into models, including white blood cell count, lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, triglyceride, D-dimer, serum potassium, and serum calcium. The cut-offs of the unwScore and wScore for predicting severity were set as 3 points and 0.513 points, respectively. The unwScore (AUC = 0.854) and wScore (AUC = 0.837) were superior to the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score (AUC = 0.526), the bedside index for severity in AP score (AUC = 0.766), and the Ranson score (AUC = 0.693) in predicting MSAP and SAP, which were equivalent to the modified computed tomography severity index score (AUC = 0.823).

Conclusions

The unwScore and wScore have good predictive value for MSAP and SAP, which could provide a valuable clinical reference for management and treatment.

Early Versus Delayed Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy for Acute Cholecystitis with Mild Pancreatitis

The safety and feasibility of early laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) for acute cholecystitis with mild pancreatitis were explored. A total of 973 patients with acute pancreatitis, including 651 mild cases and 322 moderate or severe cases were retrospectively studied from July 2014 to December 2018 in our department. And 426 mild pancreatitis cases with acute cholecystitis were enrolled in this study, of which 328 patients underwent LC during the same-admission (early LC group), and 98 patients underwent LC a period of time after conservative treatment (delayed LC group). Clinical characteristics, operative findings and complications were recorded and followed up. The two groups were comparable in age, gender, the grade of American Society of Anesthesiologist (ASA), biochemical findings and Balthazar computer tomography (CT) rating (P>0.05). The operation interval and hospital stay in early LC group were significantly shorter than in delayed LC group (5.83±1.62 vs. 41.36±8.44 days; 11.38±2.43 vs. 16.49±3.48 days, P<0.01). There was no significant difference in the average operation time between the two groups. No preoperative biliary related events recurred in early LC group but there were 21 cases of preoperative biliary related events in delayed LC group (P<0.01). There was no significant difference in conversion rate (3.85 vs. 5.10%, P=0.41) and surgical complication rate (3.95 vs. 4.08%, P=0.95) between early LC group and delayed LC group. During the postoperative follow-up period of 375 cases, biliary related events recurred in 4 cases in early LC group and 3 cases in delayed LC group (P=0.37). The effect of early LC during the same-admission is better than delayed LC for acute cholecystitis with mild pancreatitis.

Comparison of radiological scoring systems, clinical scores, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio and serum C-reactive protein level for severity and mortality in acute pancreatitis

Comparison of radiological scoring systems, clinical scores, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio and serum C-reactive protein level for severity and mortality in acute pancreatitis BACKGROUND/AIMS To compare radiological scoring systems, clinical scores, serum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) for predicting the severity and mortality of acute pancreatitis (AP). MATERIALS AND METHODS Demographic, clinical, and radiographic data from 80 patients with AP were retrospectively evaluated. The harmless acute pancreatitis score (HAPS), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), Ranson score, Balthazar score, modified computed tomography severity index (CTSI), extrapancreatic inflammation on computed tomography (EPIC) score and renal rim grade were recorded. The prognostic performance of radiological and clinical scoring systems, NLR at admission, and serum CRP levels at 48 hours were compared for severity and mortality according to the revised Atlanta Criteria. The data were evaluated by calculating the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the ROC (AUROC). RESULTS Out of 80 patients, 19 (23.8%) had severe AP, and 9 (11.3%) died. The AUROC for the BISAP score was 0.836 (95%CI: 0.735-0.937), with the highest value for severity. With a cut-off of BISAP ≥2, sensitivity and specificity were 68.4% and 78.7%, respectively. The AUROC for NLR was 0.915 (95%CI: 0.790-1), with the highest value for mortality. With a cut-off of NLR >11.91, sensitivity and specificity were 76.5% and 94.1%, respectively. Of all the radiological scoring systems, the EPIC score had the highest AUROC, i.e., 0.773 (95%CI: 0.645-0.900) for severity and 0.851 (95%CI: 0.718-0.983) for mortality, with a cut-off value ≥6. CONCLUSION The BISAP score and NLR might be preferred as early determinants of severity and mortality in AP. The EPIC score might be suggested from the current radiological scoring systems.

Plasma D-Dimer Level Is an Early Predictor of Severity of Acute Pancreatitis Based on 2012 Atlanta Classification

Background

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common digestive disorder. Its management depends on the severity; therefore, it is essential to stratify AP patients early. D-dimer, a coagulation indicator, appears to be associated with the pathogenesis of AP. The aim of this study was to evaluate D-dimer as an early predictor of the severity of AP.

Material/Methods

This was a single-center retrospective study of 1260 patients diagnosed based on the revised Atlanta classification. Only patients hospitalized within 24 h of onset were included, and 334 patients were enrolled. Blood was collected at admission and 3 times within 48 h of admission. Values at admission and average of the 3 blood samples were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses. Furthermore, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to estimate the validity of the predictor and to define optimal cut-off points for prediction.

Results

We found that 53.3% of the patients had mild AP (MAP), 24.3% had moderately severe AP (MSAP), and 22.4% had severe AP (SAP). D-dimer at admission and the average D-dimer could distinguish MAP patients from MSAP and SAP patients, with cut-off values of 3.355 mg/L and 4.868 mg/L, respectively. No difference in the parameters at admission was observed in multivariate analysis in distinguishing SAP from MSAP, but the average D-dimer level was significantly different with a cut-off value of 7.268 mg/L by comparing Ranson score, APACHE II score, and D-dimer level.

Conclusions

The average value of D-dimer levels could be used as a predictor of severity of AP. In general, patients with an average D-dimer level <4.868 could be diagnosed with MAP, >7.268 would develop into SAP, and between 4.868 and 7.268 would be MSAP.

Comparison of Various Scoring Systems and Biochemical Markers in Predicting the Outcome in Acute Pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

Early risk assessment is important in acute pancreatitis (AP). The primary objective of this study was to compare various scores and biochemical markers done on the day of admission in predicting the outcome.

METHODS

Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data of patients presenting within 2 weeks of onset were collected. Various scores were calculated and biochemical markers were measured on the day of admission. Optimum cutoffs were identified through receiver operating curve analysis. Multivariate analysis was used to identify predictors of outcome.

RESULTS

Of 343 patients included, 202 (59%) were male; mean (SD) age was 38.7 (15.5) years. Acute pancreatitis was severe in 170 (49.6%) patients. Twenty-eight percent of the patients developed infected pancreatic necrosis and 18% died. An Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score of at least 7, bedside index for severity of AP (BISAP) of at least 2, systemic inflammatory response syndrome score of at least 3, and C-reactive protein of at least 82 ng/mL predicted severity. Predictors of infected pancreatic necrosis were as follows: PANC 3 score of at least 1, BISAP score of at least 2, and Marshall score of at least 2, whereas C-reactive protein of greater than 98, BISAP score of at least 2, APACHE score of at least 10, and a blood urea nitrogen of at least 17 predicted mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Both BISAP and APACHE II are comparable in predicting outcome, but BISAP predicted all 3 outcomes with the same cutoff and hence is a robust scoring system.

Serial lipase for pancreatitis: not enough evidence

BACKGROUND

Lipase is both a sensitive and specific marker for diagnosing pancreatitis. However, the benefit of serial lipase in both monitoring and defining prognosis remains undetermined. This systematic review was conducted to further evaluate this potential application. In addition, this review also looked into the benefits of serial lipase in the subgroup of traumatic pancreatitis.

METHODS

PubMed, Cochrane Library and Google Scholar were systematically searched for related articles, between January 1995 and December 2015, according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses standards. Data was extracted and analysed by two authors.

RESULTS

Seven studies were included in the final analysis: six retrospective and one prospective studies were identified. Five studies (all retrospective) concluded no benefits in serial lipase for prognostication, while two studies identified serial lipase as a beneficial prognostic factor for acute pancreatitis. Of the included studies, only two involved traumatic pancreatitis (both dedicated to the paediatric population).

CONCLUSION

The evidence supporting or opposing serial lipase as a prognostic factor for pancreatitis is weak and consists mainly of retrospective analyses. The only prospective data identified suggested benefits to serial lipase in prognosis. Further prospective studies evaluating the prognostic value of serial lipase in the adult population with both traumatic and non-traumatic pancreatitis are required given the paucity of available evidence.

Serum C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and lactate dehydrogenase for the diagnosis of pancreatic necrosis

BACKGROUND

The treatment of people with pancreatic necrosis differs from that of people with oedematous pancreatitis. It is important to know the diagnostic accuracy of serum C-reactive protein (CRP), serum procalcitonin, and serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) as a triage test for the detection of pancreatic necrosis in people with acute pancreatitis, so that an informed decision can be made as to whether the person with pancreatic necrosis needs further investigations such as computed tomography (CT) scan or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan and treatment for pancreatic necrosis started. There is currently no standard clinical practice, although CRP, particularly an increasing trend of CRP, is often used as a triage test to determine whether the person requires further imaging. There is also currently no systematic review of the diagnostic test accuracy of CRP, procalcitonin, and LDH for the diagnosis of pancreatic necrosis in people with acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the diagnostic accuracy of CRP, procalcitonin, or LDH (index test), either alone or in combination, in the diagnosis of necrotising pancreatitis in people with acute pancreatitis and without organ failure.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR HTA and DARE), and other databases until March 2017. We searched the references of the included studies to identify additional studies. We did not restrict studies based on language or publication status, or whether data were collected prospectively or retrospectively. We also performed a 'related search' and 'citing reference' search in MEDLINE and Embase.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all studies that evaluated the diagnostic test accuracy of CRP, procalcitonin, and LDH for the diagnosis of pancreatic necrosis in people with acute pancreatitis using the following reference standards, either alone or in combination: radiological features of pancreatic necrosis (contrast-enhanced CT or MRI), surgeon's judgement of pancreatic necrosis during surgery, or histological confirmation of pancreatic necrosis. Had we found case-control studies, we planned to exclude them because they are prone to bias; however, we did not locate any. Two review authors independently identified the relevant studies from the retrieved references.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data, including methodological quality assessment, from the included studies. As the included studies reported CRP, procalcitonin, and LDH on different days of admission and measured at different cut-off levels, it was not possible to perform a meta-analysis using the bivariate model as planned. We have reported the sensitivity, specificity, post-test probability of a positive and negative index test along with 95% confidence interval (CI) on each of the different days of admission and measured at different cut-off levels.

MAIN RESULTS

A total of three studies including 242 participants met the inclusion criteria for this review. One study reported the diagnostic performance of CRP for two threshold levels (> 200 mg/L and > 279 mg/L) without stating the day on which the CRP was measured. One study reported the diagnostic performance of procalcitonin on day 1 (1 day after admission) using a threshold level of 0.5 ng/mL. One study reported the diagnostic performance of CRP on day 3 (3 days after admission) using a threshold level of 140 mg/L and LDH on day 5 (5 days after admission) using a threshold level of 290 U/L. The sensitivities and specificities varied: the point estimate of the sensitivities ranged from 0.72 to 0.88, while the point estimate of the specificities ranged from 0.75 to 1.00 for the different index tests on different days of hospital admission. However, the confidence intervals were wide: confidence intervals of sensitivities ranged from 0.51 to 0.97, while those of specificities ranged from 0.18 to 1.00 for the different tests on different days of hospital admission. Overall, none of the tests assessed in this review were sufficiently accurate to suggest that they could be useful in clinical practice.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The paucity of data and methodological deficiencies in the studies meant that it was not possible to arrive at any conclusions regarding the diagnostic test accuracy of the index test because of the uncertainty of the results. Further well-designed diagnostic test accuracy studies with prespecified index test thresholds of CRP, procalcitonin, LDH; appropriate follow-up (for at least two weeks to ensure that the person does not have pancreatic necrosis, as early scans may not indicate pancreatic necrosis); and clearly defined reference standards (of surgical or radiological confirmation of pancreatic necrosis) are important to reliably determine the diagnostic accuracy of CRP, procalcitonin, and LDH.

Endothelial progenitor cells in peripheral blood may serve as a biological marker to predict severe acute pancreatitis

AIM

To investigate the significance of endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) in predicting severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

METHODS

We recruited 71 patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) and excluded 11 of them; finally, cases of mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) (n = 30) and SAP (n = 30), and healthy volunteers (n = 20) were internalized to investigate levels of EPCs, C-reactive protein (CRP), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), fibrinogen (FIB) and white blood cells (WBC) in peripheral blood.

RESULTS

The levels of TNF-α, WBC, FIB and CRP were higher both in SAP and MAP cases than in healthy volunteers (P < 0.05, all). Interestingly, the level of EPCs was higher in SAP than MAP (1.63% ± 1.47% vs 6.61% ± 4.28%, P < 0.01), but there was no significant difference between the MAP cases and healthy volunteers (1.63% ± 1.47% vs 0.55% ± 0.54%, P > 0.05). Receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) showed that EPCs, TNF-α, CRP and FIB were significantly associated with SAP, especially EPCs and CRP were optimal predictive markers of SAP. When the cut-off point for EPCs and CRP were 2.26% and 5.94 mg/dL, the sensitivities were 90.0% and 73.3%, and the specificities were 83.3% and 96.7%. Although, CRP had the highest specificity, and EPCs had the highest sensitivity and highest area under the curve value (0.93).

CONCLUSION

Data suggest that EPCs may be a new biological marker in predicting SAP.

Can mean platelet volume play a role in evaluating the severity of acute pancreatitis?

AIM

To investigate serum mean platelet volume (MPV) levels in acute pancreatitis (AP) patients and assess whether MPV effectively predicts the disease severity of AP.

METHODS

We included 117 consecutive patients with AP as the AP group and 34 consecutive patients with colorectal polyps (before endoscopic treatment) as the control group. Complete blood counts, liver function, platelet indices (MPV), coagulation parameters, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured on days 1, 2, 3 and 7 after admission. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to compare the sensitivity and specificity of MPV, white blood cell (WBC), LDH and CRP in predicting AP severity. The Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) and the 2012 revised Atlanta criteria were used to evaluate disease severity in AP.

RESULTS

MPV levels were significantly lower in the AP group than in the control group on day 1 (P = 0.000), day 2 (P = 0.029) and day 3 (P = 0.001) after admission. In addition, MPV values were lower on day 1 after admission than on day 2 (P = 0.012), day 3 (P = 0.000) and day 7 (P = 0.002) in all AP patients. Based on the mGPS, 78 patients (66.7%) were diagnosed with mild and 39 patients (33.3%) with severe AP. There was no significant difference in mean MPV levels between patients diagnosed with mild and severe AP based on the mGPS (P = 0.424). According to the 2012 revised Atlanta criteria, there were 98 patients (83.8%) without persistent organ failure (OF) [non-severe acute pancreatitis (non-SAP) group] and 19 patients (16.2%) with persistent OF (SAP group). MPV levels were significantly lower in the SAP group than in the non-SAP group on day 1 after admission (P = 0.002). On day 1 after admission using a cut-off value of 6.65 fL, the overall accuracy of MPV for predicting SAP according to the 2012 revised Atlanta criteria (AUC = 0.716) had a sensitivity of 91.8% and a specificity of 47.4% and was superior to the accuracy of the traditional markers WBC (AUC = 0.700) and LDH (AUC = 0.697).

CONCLUSION

MPV can be used at no additional cost as a useful, non-invasive biomarker that distinguishes AP with persistent OF from AP without persistent OF on day 1 of hospital admission.

A reduced lymphocyte ratio as an early marker for predicting acute pancreatitis

The early diagnosis and severity grading for acute pancreatitis (AP) are difficult to determine because of the complexity and differences in disease process. To date, few studies have investigated the role of lymphocyte ratio (LR) in AP. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to investigate the prognostic value of LR as an indicator in AP, as well as determine an optimal cut-off value for the severity prediction. There were two hundred four patients involved in this study, ninety-two of whom had severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). The LR was analyzed on admission and correlated with severity, which was determined using the Atlanta classification. The optimal cut-off value for LR was generated using receiving operator characteristic (ROC) curves. The results showed that the LR in the SAP group decreased significantly compared to the mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) group (8.82 vs. 13.43). The optimal cut-off value obtained from ROC curves was 0.081, with a sensitivity of 80.4%, a specificity of 53.3%, a positive likelihood ratio of 1.722, and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.368. In conclusion, the LR is obviously related to the condition of AP patients and is valuable for the differential diagnosis of SAP in early stages of AP.

Role of bedside pancreatic scores and C-reactive protein in predicting pancreatic fluid collections and necrosis

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis is a disease with variable outcome; the course of the disease can be modified by early aggressive management in patients with severe pancreatitis. Easily calculable pancreatic scores and investigations can help to triage these patients. We aimed to determine the role of bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), harmless acute pancreatitis score (HAPS), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) scores on day of admission and C-reactive protein (CRP) at 48 h for predicting the presence of pancreatic fluid collection (PFC) and necrosis on CT scans done at 72 h.

METHODS

Of a total of 114 consecutively seen patients of pancreatitis, 64 with acute pancreatitis were enrolled in the study. All individuals had the pancreatitis predicting scores calculated at the time of admission, CRP at 48 h, and contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) abdomen at 72 h from admission.

RESULTS

The study population of 64 (55 male) had a mean (+SD) age of 37.7 ± 13 years. Alcohol was the most common (68.8%) etiology in these patients. Based on CECT, patients were divided into 2 groups; group 1 with 41 patients who had mild pancreatitis and group 2 with 23 patients who had pancreatic fluid collection with or without necrosis (PFCN). PFCN were seen in 19 (29.7%) of patients with 2 or more SIRS criteria, 17 (26.6%) of patients with BISAP score ≥3, and 16 patients (25.0%) with HAPS >0 respectively. All three scores were able to predict PFCN significantly. CRP >150 mg/L was noted in 23 patients and was able to predict the presence of fluid collections (p=0.0002) and pancreatic necrosis (p = 0.0004) on CT.

CONCLUSION

BISAP, HAPS, and SIRS scores and CRP of 150 mg/L all correlated significantly with the occurrence of fluid collections and pancreatic necrosis on CT at 72 h. None of the scores was superior to the other in this respect.

Predictive Capacity of Biomarkers for Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Background: Early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) substantially improves treatment of patients. A large amount of biomarkers have been studied with this objective. The aim of this work was to study predictive biomarkers using preset cut-off levels in an unselected population of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods: 232 patients (52.2% males, median age 66 years) with AP admitted to Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, were consecutively enrolled. Blood samples were collected upon admission and clinical data were gathered both prospectively at inclusion and through review of medical notes. Cut-off levels were defined based on the reports of prior studies, and through their results eight biomarkers (IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, TNF-α, MCP-1, procalcitonin and D-dimer) were selected for analysis. Results: Of the patients, 83.2% had mild AP and 16.8% had SAP. Levels of IL-1β, IL-6 and IL-10 were significantly (p < 0.05) higher upon admission in the group with SAP. When applying the preset cut-off levels on our material, sensitivity and specificity for prediction of severity were low. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed that selected cut-off levels were acceptable, but areas under the curves were inferior compared to other studies. The results did not improve when using the revised Atlanta 2012 classification. Conclusions: Previous studies on severity prediction of AP are difficult to compare due to large variations in setups and outcomes. Calculated cut-offs in our cohort were in acceptable range from preset levels, however areas under the curves were low, indicating suboptimal biomarkers for the unselected population investigated. For comparable results and possible clinical implementations, future studies need large consecutive series with a reasonable percentage of severe cases. Additionally, novel biomarkers need to be explored.

Decreased MIZ1 Expression in Severe Experimental Acute Pancreatitis: A Rat Study

AIM

We tested our hypothesis that Myc-interacting zinc finger protein 1 (MIZ1), a cell cycle regulator, suppressed inflammation, and therefore, represented a useful prognostic marker in patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP) complicated by acute lung injury.

METHODS

Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into control and ANP groups at different time points. The MIZ1 protein expression was measured by Western blot and ELISA, and confirmed using immunohistochemistry. The severity of pancreatic and lung injury was evaluated by the injury score and wet/dry weight ratio. The severity of disease was evaluated by serum C-reactive protein (CRP). The MPO activity of lung tissue amylase levels and the degree of inflammation were evaluated by serum tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α and interleukin (IL)-6 expression. The risk due to multiple factors was investigated by relationship analysis.

RESULTS

The serum levels of CRP, amylase, TNF-α, and IL-6 were gradually increased at 6, 24, and 48 h in ANP when compared with the control rats. The MIZ1 expressions were greatly decreased in ANP rats, especially at 24 h. Statistical analysis showed that there were time-dependent differences in ANP rats when compared with control rats (6 vs. 24 or 48 h, P < 0.01). MIZ1 showed close negative correlation with the degree of pancreatic and lung injury, serum amylase, CRP, TNF-α, and IL-6 (P < 0.01, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The decreasing MIZ1 expression was closely correlated with inflammatory response, and development of ANP. Decreasing MIZ1 levels indicate a risk for ANP.

Comparison of Predictive Systems in Severe Acute Pancreatitis According to the Revised Atlanta Classification

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to compare the prognostic value of various predictors and complex scoring systems for prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) according to the revised Atlanta classification.

METHODS

C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin were obtained on admission, and CRP level 24 hours after admission (CRP2) was measured. Various scoring systems including Ranson, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE II), the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis, and Computed Tomography Severity Index (CTSI) were calculated.

RESULTS

There were 146 patients with acute pancreatitis (mean age, 50.6 ± 18.3 years; 63% male), of which 43 patients (29.5%) received a diagnosis of moderately severe AP, and 17 patients (11.6%) received a diagnosis of SAP. In patients with moderately severe acute pancreatitis to SAP, CTSI (odds ratio [OR], 10.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.3-25.43; P < 0.001), APACHE II (OR, 3.87; 95% CI, 1.18-12.64; P = 0.025), and CRP2 (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.53-13.1; P = 0.006) were strongly related to moderately severe acute pancreatitis and SAP. In patients with SAP compared with mild to moderately severe AP, procalcitonin (OR, 4.36; 95% CI, 1.01-18.96; P = 0.049) was the only factor strongly associated with SAP.

CONCLUSIONS

Procalcitonin was the best predictor for patients with SAP; CTSI, APACHE II, and CRP2 were valuable predictors for patients with moderately severe acute pancreatitis and SAP.

Effects of proton pump inhibitor on outcomes of patients with severe acute pancreatitis based on a national administrative database

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate whether proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) affect the outcomes of patients with severe acute pancreatitis based on a national administrative database.

METHODS

A total of 10,400 patients with severe acute pancreatitis were referred to 1021 hospitals between 2010 and 2012 in Japan. Patients were divided into two groups: patients who used PPIs (n = 3879) and those without PPIs (n = 6521). We collected patients' data from the administrative database to compare in-hospital mortality within 7, 14, and 28 days, and overall in-hospital mortality between groups, using propensity score analysis to adjust for treatment selection bias.

RESULTS

Multiple logistic regression showed that use of PPIs did not affect in-hospital mortality within 7 and 14 days. The odds ratio (OR) for mortality within 7 days was 1.14 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.91-1.42, p = 0.236) while that within 14 days was 1.10 (95% CI: 0.89-1.35, p = 0.349). No significant association was observed for in-hospital mortality within 28 days and overall in-hospital mortality (OR for within 28 days: 1.12, 95% CI: 0.92-1.37, p = 0.224; OR for overall in-hospital mortality: 1.42, 95% CI: 0.97-1.87, p = 0.065).

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that use of PPIs does not affect clinical outcomes of patients with severe acute pancreatitis. Prospective or randomized studies are needed to confirm the efficacy of PPIs on outcomes of patients with severe acute pancreatitis in the future.

Impact of etiology on course and outcomes of severe acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Since the influence of etiological factors on the course and outcomes of acute pancreatitis (AP) is not fully understood yet, the aim of the study was to compare the outcomes of alcoholic and biliary severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We investigated 81 patients with alcoholic and biliary SAP. Demographic data, etiologic factors, severity scores, intra-abdominal pressure, imaging studies, interventions, and treatment outcomes were prospectively entered into specially maintained database and subsequently analyzed.

RESULTS

No statistically significant difference was observed in the prevalence of SAP in biliary and alcoholic AP groups (P=0.429). Although, in the biliary SAP group patients were predominantly elderly women (P=0.003), the total in-hospital stay was longer in alcoholic SAP patients (P=0.021). The abdominal compartment syndrome developed more frequently (P=0.041) and necrosectomy was more frequently performed in alcoholic SAP group (not statistically significant). Although not statistically significant, a lower mortality rate among biliary SAP patients (25.0% vs. 13.5%) was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

We defined a trend toward decreased incidence of infected necrosis in larger volume (≥30%) pancreatic necrosis, absence of abdominal compartment syndrome, lower rate of necrosectomies, shorter in-hospital stay, and an insignificantly reduced mortality rate in biliary SAP patients, indicating more favorable course of biliary SAP.

Prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis on admission by carboxypeptidase-B activation peptide: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

The assessment of acute pancreatitis severity on admission currently remains a challenge to clinicians. A single, rapid biochemical marker would be preferable to clinical and radiological scoring systems. The aim of this study was to undertake a meta-analysis on the value of carboxypeptidase-B activation peptide (CAPAP) in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis on admission.

METHODS

Major databases and trial registries were searched to identify all relevant studies from January 1998 to March 2015. Pooled sensitivity, specificity and the diagnostic odds ratios (DOR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated for each study and were compared to other biomarkers, if included, within the same study. Summary receiver-operating curves (ROC) were conducted and the area under the curve (AUC) was evaluated.

RESULTS

In total, six studies were included. At the time of admission, the AUC of serum CAPAP for predicting severity of acute pancreatitis was 0.86 with pooled sensitivity, specificity and DOR of 0.90, 0.70 and 19.08, respectively. When serum CAPAP was compared with urinary CAPAP, the AUC, pooled sensitivity, specificity and DOR were 0.69 vs 0.88, 0.90 vs 0.81, 0.68 vs. 0.77 and 17.96 vs. 18.58, respectively. Similarly, the AUC, pooled sensitivity, specificity and DOR of serum CAPAP vs maximal serum C-reactive protein within the first 3 days of admission were found to be 0.97 vs. 0.82, 0.92 vs. 0.88, 0.81 vs 0.68 and 37.90 vs. 18.80, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Both serum and urinary CAPAP have the potential to act as a stratification marker on admission in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis.

Individualized early goal-directed therapy in systemic inflammation: is full utilization of preload reserve the optimal strategy?

OBJECTIVES

In severe acute pancreatitis, the administration of fluids in the presence of positive fluid responsiveness is associated with better outcome when compared to guiding therapy on central venous pressure. We compared the effects of such consequent maximization of stroke volume index with a regime using individual values of stroke volume index assessed prior to severe acute pancreatitis induction as therapeutic hemodynamic goals.

DESIGN

Prospective, randomized animal study.

SETTING

University animal research laboratory.

SUBJECTS

Thirty domestic pigs.

INTERVENTIONS

After randomization, fluid resuscitation was started 2 hours after severe acute pancreatitis induction and continued for 6 hours according to the respective treatment algorithms. In the control group, fluid therapy was directed by maximizing stroke volume index, and in the study group, stroke volume index assessed prior to severe acute pancreatitis served as primary hemodynamic goal.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Within the first 6 hours of severe acute pancreatitis, the study group received a total of 1,935.8 ± 540.7 mL of fluids compared with 3,462.8 ± 828.2 mL in the control group (p < 0.001). Pancreatic tissue oxygenation did not differ significantly between both groups. Vascular endothelial function, measured by flow-mediated vasodilation before and 6 hours after severe acute pancreatitis induction, revealed less impairment in the study group after treatment interval (-90.76% [study group] vs -130.89% [control group]; p = 0.046). Further, lower levels of heparan sulfate (3.41 ± 5.6 pg/mL [study group] vs 43.67 ± 46.61 pg/mL [control group]; p = 0.032) and interleukin 6 (32.18 ± 8.81 pg/mL [study group] vs 77.76 ± 56.86 pg/mL [control group]; p = 0.021) were found in the study group compared with control group. Histopathological examination of the pancreatic head and corpus at day 7 revealed less edema for the study group compared with the control group (1.82 ± 0.87 [study group] vs 2.89 ± 0.33 [control group, pancreatic head]; p = 0.03; 2.2 ± 0.92 [study group] vs 2.91 ± 0.3 [control group, pancreatic corpus]; p = 0.025).

CONCLUSIONS

Individualized optimization of intravascular fluid status during the early course of severe acute pancreatitis, compared with a treatment strategy of maximizing stroke volume by fluid loading, leads to less vascular endothelial damage, pancreatic edema, and inflammatory response.

Effect of electroacupuncture on the inflammatory response in patients with acute pancreatitis: an exploratory study

OBJECTIVES

To examine the effects of electroacupuncture (EA) on inflammatory responses in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

Eighty patients with mild or severe AP were randomly allocated to a control group or an EA group. All patients were managed conservatively. In addition, the EA group received acupuncture for 30 min per day for 7 days at bilateral points ST36, LI4, TE6, ST37 and LR3. Interleukin (IL)-6, IL-10 and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were measured on admission and on day 7. The time to re-feeding and length of stay in hospital were also recorded.

RESULTS

A total of 58 patients provided complete data. The characteristics of the patients in the EA and control groups were similar. After 7 days the serum concentrations of IL-10 were higher in the EA group than in the control group (mild AP: 6.2±1.2 vs 5.2±0.9 pg/mL, p<0.05; severe AP: 14.9±7.8 vs 7.9±6.3 pg/mL, p<0.05). For patients with severe AP, the CRP level in the EA group was lower than in the control group (p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

EA may reduce the severity of AP by inducing anti-inflammatory effects and reducing the time to re-feeding; however, it did not reduce the length of hospital stay.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ChiCTR-TRC-13003572.

Gallstone pancreatitis: a review

Gallstone disease is the most common cause of acute pancreatitis in the Western world. In most cases, gallstone pancreatitis is a mild and self-limiting disease, and patients may proceed without complications to cholecystectomy to prevent future recurrence. Severe disease occurs in about 20% of cases and is associated with significant mortality; meticulous management is critical. A thorough understanding of the disease process, diagnosis, severity stratification, and principles of management is essential to the appropriate care of patients presenting with this disease. This article reviews these topics with a focus on surgical management, including appropriate timing and choice of interventions.

An evidence-based proposal for predicting organ failure in severe acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES

Early, efficient, and accurate evaluation for organ failure is an important step for improving outcome in severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). We aim to develop a method that can early, efficiently, and accurately evaluate the in-hospital organ failure in patients with SAP.

METHODS

Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, the associative factors for in-hospital organ failure were evaluated retrospectively from conventional data obtained from 393 patients with SAP from 2000 to 2012. In classification and regression tree analysis, a new clinical scoring system was developed for the evaluation of in-hospital organ failure in SAP. We also compared the accuracy of our new scoring system with multiple organ dysfunction score and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination II score by the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

Laboratory results revealed serum calcium level greater than or equal to 1.84 mmol/L, serum creatinine level greater than or equal to 110 µmol/L, age greater than or equal to 72 years, activated partial thromboplastin time less than or equal to 30.95 seconds, and Balthazar computed tomography score greater than or equal to 7 (CCAAB) score system, each contributed 1 point for the prediction of organ failure. The area under the curve of the CCAAB score system was similar to multiple organ dysfunction scores and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination II scores.

CONCLUSIONS

The new scoring system CCAAB is an efficient and accurate method for the early evaluation of patients with SAP for in-hospital organ failure.

Specific lipase-responsive polymer-coated gadolinium nanoparticles for MR imaging of early acute pancreatitis

Currently, available methods for diagnosis of acute pancreatitis (AP) are mainly dependent on serum enzyme analysis and imaging techniques that are too low in sensitivity and specificity to accurately and promptly diagnose AP. The lack of early diagnostic tools highlights the need to search for a highly effective and specific diagnostic method. In this study, we synthesized a conditionally activated, gadolinium-containing, nanoparticle-based MRI nanoprobe as a diagnostic tool for the early identification of AP. Gadolinium diethylenetriaminepentaacetic fatty acid (Gd-DTPA-FA) nanoparticles were synthesized by conjugation of DTPA-FA ligand and gadolinium acetate. Gd-DTPA-FA exhibited low cytotoxicity and excellent biocompatibility when characterized in vitro and in vivo studies. L-arginine induced a gradual increase in the intensity of the T1-weighted MRI signal from 1 h to 36 h in AP rat models. The increase in signal intensity was most significant at 1 h, 6 h and 12 h. These results suggest that the Gd-DTPA-FA as an MRI contrast agent is highly efficient and specific to detect early AP.

Early angiopoietin-2 levels after onset predict the advent of severe pancreatitis, multiple organ failure, and infectious complications in patients with acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis is a severe condition that requires early identification of patients at risk of developing potentially lethal complications. Current clinical scoring systems and biochemical parameters are insufficient. In this study, we aimed to assess whether early plasma Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with predicted severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

STUDY DESIGN

This analysis is a substudy of the PROPATRIA trial (probiotics vs placebo in patients with predicted SAP). The Ang-2 levels were measured prospectively in plasma in the first 5 days after admission in 115 patients.

RESULTS

Early Ang-2 levels were higher in patients who developed SAP: 6.4 vs 3.1 μg/L (p < 0.001) and also were higher in patients who developed multiorgan failure in the first week (p = 0.001) and after the first week (p = 0.049). Furthermore, high Ang-2 levels were associated with infectious complications in the first week (p < 0.001) and after the first week (p < 0.001). Finally, plasma Ang-2 was significantly higher in patients who died (p < 0.001) and in patients who developed bowel ischemia (p < 0.001). As a predictor of adverse outcomes, plasma Ang-2 was superior to a number of current scores, such as the APACHE II score, the Imrie score, C-reactive protein, lipopolysaccharide binding protein, and procalcitonin.

CONCLUSIONS

In the setting of this randomized controlled trial, early plasma Ang-2 was found to be an accurate predictor of SAP, multiorgan failure, and infectious complications. As a biomarker, it did outperform all of the investigated conventional predictors that are currently used in clinical practice.

Prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis on admission by urinary trypsinogen activation peptide: A meta-analysis

AIM: To undertake a meta-analysis on the value of urinary trypsinogen activation peptide (uTAP) in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis on admission.

METHODS: Major databases including Medline, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials in the Cochrane Library were searched to identify all relevant studies from January 1990 to January 2013. Pooled sensitivity, specificity and the diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) with 95%CI were calculated for each study and were compared to other systems/biomarkers if mentioned within the same study. Summary receiver-operating curves were conducted and the area under the curve (AUC) was evaluated.

RESULTS: In total, six studies of uTAP with a cut-off value of 35 nmol/L were included in this meta-analysis. Overall, the pooled sensitivity and specificity of uTAP for predicting severity of acute pancreatitis, at time of admission, was 71% and 75%, respectively (AUC = 0.83, DOR = 8.67, 95%CI: 3.70-20.33). When uTAP was compared with plasma C-reactive protein, the pooled sensitivity, specificity, AUC and DOR were 0.64 vs 0.67, 0.77 vs 0.75, 0.82 vs 0.79 and 6.27 vs 6.32, respectively. Similarly, the pooled sensitivity, specificity, AUC and DOR of uTAP vs Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II within the first 48 h of admission were found to be 0.64 vs 0.69, 0.77 vs 0.61, 0.82 vs 0.73 and 6.27 vs 4.61, respectively.

CONCLUSION: uTAP has the potential to act as a stratification marker on admission for differentiating disease severity of acute pancreatitis.

Scoring of human acute pancreatitis: state of the art

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis remains as one of the most difficult and challenging digestive disorder to predict in terms of clinical course and outcome. Every case has an individual course and therefore acute pancreatitis remains challenging and fascinating. Due to this variability, many different scoring systems have evolved during the last decades. Every scoring system has advantages and disadvantages. Not every scoring system is capable of assessing the clinical time course of the disease, some are only suitable for the time of initial presentation.

AIM

This paper will give an overview on the development of different widely used scoring systems and their performance in assessing severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis.

CONCLUSION

Severity assessment means objective quantification of overall severity of illness. Early and reliable stratification of severity is required to decide best treatment of the individual patient, preparation for possible evolving complications or for referral to specialist centers. No single scoring system is able to cover the entire range of problems associated with treatment and assessment of acute pancreatitis. In our clinical experience, we recommend hematocrit upon admission, daily sequential organ failure assessment score and procalcitonin, C-reactive protein on day 3 and CT severity index beyond the first week. These scoring tools together with close clinical follow-up of the patient ultimately lead to an optimized treatment of this challenging disease.

Acute pancreatitis scoring systems

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common acute abdominal disease that can be divided into mild acute pancreatitis and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). SAP accounts for 20%-30% of all AP cases, progresses rapidly and is associated with a high mortality rate. Early identification, diagnosis and treatment of SAP are important for improving the prognosis. This article will introduce common AP scoring systems and describe the characteristics of each system.

The prognostic value of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in acute pancreatitis: identification of an optimal NLR

INTRODUCTION

The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), calculated from the white cell differential count, provides a rapid indication of the extent of an inflammatory process. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of the NLR in acute pancreatitis (AP) and determine an optimal ratio for severity prediction.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

NLRs were calculated on days 0, 1, and 2, and correlated with severity. Severity was defined using the Atlanta classification.

RESULTS

One hundred forty-six consecutive patients managed were included, 22 with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). NLR in SAP was significantly higher than in the favorable prognosis group on all 3 days (day 0, 15.5 vs. 10.5; day 1, 13.3 vs. 9.8; day 2, 10.8 vs. 7.6). The optimal cut-offs from ROC curves were 10.6 (day 0), 8.1 (day 1), and 4.8 (day 2) giving sensitivities of 63-90 %, specificities of 50-57 %, negative predictive value of 89.5-96.4 %, positive predictive values of 21.2-31.1 %, and accuracies of 57.7-60 %.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevation of the NLR during the first 48 h of admission is significantly associated with severe acute pancreatitis and is an independent negative prognostic indicator in AP.

Value of adipokines in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis: Comprehensive review

AIM: To analyze the prognostic value of adipokines in predicting the course, complications and fatal outcome of acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS: We performed the search of PubMed database and the systemic analysis of the literature for both experimental and human studies on prognostic value of adipokines in AP for period 2002-2012. Only the papers that described the use of adipokines for prediction of severity and/or complications of AP were selected for further analysis. Each article had to contain information about the levels of measured adipokines, diagnosis and verification of AP, to specify presence of pancreatic necrosis, organ dysfunction and/or mortality rates. From the very beginning, study was carried out adhering to the PRISMA checklist and flowchart for systemic reviews. To assess quality of all included human studies, the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool was used. Because of the high heterogeneity between the studies, it was decided to refrain from the statistical processing or meta-analysis of the available data.

RESULTS: Nine human and three experimental studies were included into review. In experimental studies significant differences between leptin concentrations at 24 and 48 h in control, acute edematous and acute necrotizing pancreatitis groups were found (P = 0.027 and P < 0.001). In human studies significant differences between leptin and resitin concentrations in control and acute pancreatitis groups were found. 1-3 d serum adiponectin threshold of 4.5 μg/mL correctly classified the severity of 81% of patients with AP. This threshold yielded a sensitivity of 70%, specificity 85%, positive predictive value 64%, negative predictive value88% (area under curve 0.75). Resistin and visfatin concentrations differ significantly between mild and severe acute pancreatitis groups, they correlate with severity of disease, need for interventions and outcome. Both adipokines are good markers for parapancreatic necrosis and the cut-off values of 11.9 ng/mL and 1.8 ng/mL respectively predict the high ranges of radiological scores. However, the review revealed that all nine human studies with adipokines are very different in terms of methodology and objectives, so it is difficult to generalize their results. It seems that concentrations of the leptin and resistin increases significantly in patients with acute pancreatitis compared with controls. Serum levels of adiponectin, visfatin and especially resitin (positive correlation with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, Ranson and C-reactive protein) are significantly different in mild acute pancreatitis and severe acute pancreatitis patients, so, they can serve as a markers for the disease severity prediction. Resistin and visfatin can also be used for pancreatic and parapancreatic necrosis prediction, interventions needs and possible, outcome.

CONCLUSION: High levels of adipokines could allow for prediction of a severe disease course and outcome even in small pancreatic lesions on computed tomography scans.

Timing of cholecystectomy after mild biliary pancreatitis: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To determine the risk of recurrent biliary events in the period after mild biliary pancreatitis but before interval cholecystectomy and to determine the safety of cholecystectomy during the index admission.

BACKGROUND

Although current guidelines recommend performing cholecystectomy early after mild biliary pancreatitis, consensus on the definition of early (ie, during index admission or within the first weeks after hospital discharge) is lacking.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search in PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane for studies published from January 1992 to July 2010. Included were cohort studies of patients with mild biliary pancreatitis reporting on the timing of cholecystectomy, number of readmissions for recurrent biliary events before cholecystectomy, operative complications (eg, bile duct injury, bleeding), and mortality. Study quality and risks of bias were assessed.

RESULTS

After screening 2413 studies, 8 cohort studies and 1 randomized trial describing 998 patients were included. Cholecystectomy was performed during index admission in 483 patients (48%) without any reported readmissions. Interval cholecystectomy was performed in 515 patients (52%) after 40 days (median; interquartile range: 19-58 days). Before interval cholecystectomy, 95 patients (18%) were readmitted for recurrent biliary events (0% vs 18%, P < 0.0001). These included recurrent biliary pancreatitis (n = 43, 8%), acute cholecystitis (n = 17), and biliary colics (n = 35). Patients who had an endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography had fewer recurrent biliary events (10% vs 24%, P = 0.001), especially less recurrent biliary pancreatitis (1% vs 9%). There were no differences in operative complications, conversion rate (7%), and mortality (0%) between index and interval cholecystectomy. Because baseline characteristics were only reported in 26% of patients, study populations could not be compared.

CONCLUSIONS

Interval cholecystectomy after mild biliary pancreatitis is associated with a high risk of readmission for recurrent biliary events, especially recurrent biliary pancreatitis. Cholecystectomy during index admission for mild biliary pancreatitis appears safe, but selection bias could not be excluded.

Comparative evaluation of blood markers and extrapancreatic inflammatim on CT score in the early prediction of the severity of acute panereatitis

AIM: To compare the value of blood markers and extrapancreatic inflammation on CT score (EPIC) in early prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS: The clinical, laboratory and CT data obtained on admission (within 24 h of hospitalization) for 96 patients with AP who were hospitalized from September 2010 to September 2011 were analyzed. Severe AP (SAP) was defined as the presence of one or more of the following signs: mortality, persistent organ failure and/or admission ICU, and/or operation. Blood markers and EPIC were compared between SAP group and mild AP (MAP) using the t test. The correlation between blood markers, EPIC and severity of AP was analyzed. The value of blood markers and EPIC in predicting the severity of AP was assessed using receiver operation curve analysis. The sensitivity, positive predictive value and accuracy were also studied.

RESULTS: There were 20 patients with SAP and 76 patients with MAP. The levels of blood markers and EPIC in the SAP group were significantly higher than those in the MAP group [white blood cell (WBC): (15.16 ± 5.06) × 10⁹/L vs (11.05 ± 1.76) × 10⁹/L, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR): 18.95 ± 12.13 vs 6.63 ± 3.44, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP): 58.35 mg/L ± 20.47 mg/L vs 28.59 mg/L ± 12.92 mg/L, D-dimer (DD): 1596.95 μg/L ± 1409.05 μg/L vs 412.52 μg/L ± 316.66 μg/L, EPIC: 3.30 ± 0.86 vs 1.50 ± 0.96, all P = 0.000]. The Spearman correlation coefficients (rs) between severity of AP and WBC, NLR, hs-CRP, DD and EPIC were 0.419, 0.571, 0.568, 0.434 and 0.613, respectively (all P = 0.000). The area under the curve (AUC) of WBC, NLR, hs-CRP, DD and EPIC in predicting the severity of AP were 0.798 (0.670-0.925), 0.906 (0.830-0.981), 0.904 (0.838-0.970), 0.808 (0.638-0.938) and 0.917 (0.851-0.983), respectively. The predictive sensitivities were 70.00%, 85.00%, 85.00%, 75.00% and 85.00%; the positive predictive values were 58.33%, 73.91%, 51.52%, 48.39% and 72.00%; and the accuracies were 83.33%, 90.63%, 80.21%, 78.13% and 90.63%, respectively.

CONCLUSION: WBC and DD have a moderate value in predicting the severity of AP, while NLR, hs-CRP, and EPIC have a much higher value.