The diagnostic value of beta-human chorionic gonadotropin, progesterone, CA125 in the prediction of abortions

Efficacy and safety of Gushen Antai Pills combined with dydrogesterone in the treatment of threatened miscarriage: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Despite some progress has been made in the pathogenesis and treatment of threatened miscarriage (TM), conventional treatment remains suboptimal. Thus, complementary medicine gradually become a new treatment option for treating threatened miscarriage. Gushen Antai Pills (GAP), a classic prescription of Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), has became a popular complementary therapy to conventional western medicine (dydrogesterone) in treating threatened miscarriage in recent years. However, a systematic summary and analysis for its therapeutic effects is lacking. This meta-analysis aimed to systematically evaluate the effectiveness and safety of Gushen Antai Pills combined with dydrogesterone in the treatment of threatened miscarriage. Methods: A systematic search across seven electronic databases was conducted from inception to 17 September 2022. Studies were included if they were randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating the effect of integrating Gushen Antai Pills and dydrogesterone in patients with threatened miscarriage, and reported the outcomes of interest. All statistical analyses were conducted using the Revman5.3 and Stata 13 software. The GRADE system was used to evaluate the quality of evidence. Results: Ten eligible randomized controlled trials involving 950 participants were contained in this meta-analysis. The pooled analysis showed that Gushen Antai Pills combined with dydrogesterone can significantly reduce the incidence of early pregnancy loss (RR: 0.29; 95% CI: 0.19-0.42; p < 0.00001) and alleviate clinical symptoms (RR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.22-1.59; p < 0.00001), compared with treatment of dydrogesterone alone. Also, meta-analysis indicated that integrating Gushen Antai Pills and dydrogesterone is more effective than using dydrogesterone alone in improving hormone levels (serum levels of progesterone, β-HCG and estradiol) for women with threatened miscarriage (all p < 0.00001). Meanwhile, the combined effects with significant heterogeneity also showed favorable consistency in the sensitivity analyses, indicating a good stability of present results. Moreover, no significant differences between Gushen Antai Pills combined with dydrogesterone and control group on adverse events was identified. The overall GRADE qualities were low to moderate. Conclusion: The overall available evidence suggested that Gushen Antai Pills combined with dydrogesterone had significant effects in improving pregnancy success rate, clinical symptoms and hormone levels for women with threatened miscarriage, with considerable safety and reliability. However, due to the partial heterogeneity, suboptimal quality and high risk of bias of some included studies, further rigorously designed randomized controlled trials are required. Systematic Review Registration: identifier https://INPLASY2022120035, https://inplasy.com/inplasy-2022-12-0035/.

Usability, accuracy, and cost-effectiveness of a medical software for early pregnancies: a retrospective study

STUDY QUESTION

Can early pregnancies be accurately and cost-effectively diagnosed and managed using a new medical computerized tool?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Compared to the standard clinical approach, retrospective implementation of the new medical software in a gynaecological emergency unit was correlated with more accurate diagnosis and more cost-effective management.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Early pregnancy complications are responsible for a large percentage of consultations, mostly in emergency units, with guidelines becoming complex and poorly known/misunderstood by practitioners.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

A total of 780 gynaecological emergency consultations (446 patients), recorded between November 2018 and June 2019 in a tertiary university hospital, were retrospectively encoded in a new medical computerized tool. The inclusion criteria were a positive hCG test result, ultrasonographical visualization of gestational sac, and/or embryo corresponding to a gestational age of 14 weeks or less. Diagnosis and management suggested by the new computerized tool are named eDiagnoses, while those provided by a gynaecologist member of the emergency department staff are called medDiagnoses.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Usability was the primary endpoint, with accuracy and cost reduction, respectively, as secondary and tertiary endpoints. Identical eDiagnoses/medDiagnoses were considered as accurate. During follow-up visits, if the updated eDiagnoses and medDiagnoses became both identical to a previously discrepant eDiagnosis or medDiagnosis, this previous eDiagnosis or medDiagnosis was also considered as correct. Four double-blinded experts reviewed persistent discrepancies, determining the accurate diagnoses. eDiagnoses/medDiagnoses accuracies were compared using McNemar's Chi square test, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Only 1 (0.1%) from 780 registered medical records lacked data for full encoding. Out of the 779 remaining consultations, 675 eDiagnoses were identical to the medDiagnoses (86.6%) and 104 were discrepant (13.4%). From these 104, 60 reached an agreement during follow-up consultations, with 59 medDiagnoses ultimately changing into the initial eDiagnoses (98%) and only one discrepant eDiagnosis turning later into the initial medDiagnosis (2%). Finally, 24 remained discrepant at all subsequent checks and 20 were not re-evaluated. Out of these 44, the majority of experts agreed on 38 eDiagnoses (86%) and 5 medDiagnoses (11%, including four twin pregnancies whose twinness was the only discrepancy). No majority was reached for one discrepant eDiagnosis/medDiagnosis (2%). In total, the accuracy of eDiagnoses was 99.1% (675 + 59 + 38 = 772 eDiagnoses out of 779), versus 87.4% (675 + 1 + 5 = 681) for medDiagnoses (P < 0.0001). Calculating all basic costs of extra consultations, extra-medications, extra-surgeries, and extra-hospitalizations induced by incorrect medDiagnoses versus eDiagnoses, the new medical computerized tool would have saved 3623.75 Euros per month. Retrospectively, the medical computerized tool was usable in almost all the recorded cases (99.9%), globally more accurate (99.1% versus 87.4%), and for all diagnoses except twinning reports, and it was more cost-effective than the standard clinical approach.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The retrospective study design is a limitation. Some observed improvements with the medical software could derive from the encoding by a rested and/or more experienced physician who had a better ultrasound interpretation. This software cannot replace clinical and ultrasonographical skills but may improve the compliance to published guidelines.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

This medical computerized tool is improving. A new version considers diagnosis and management of multiple pregnancies with their specificities (potentially multiple locations, chorioamnionicity). Prospective evaluations will be required. Further developmental steps are planned, including software incorporation into ultrasound devices and integration of previously published predictive/prognostic factors (e.g. serum progesterone, corpus luteum scoring).

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

No external funding was obtained for this study. F.B. and D.G. created the new medical software.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03993015.

Performance of single serum progesterone in the evaluation of symptomatic first-trimester pregnant patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Pain and bleeding complicate 30% of pregnancies, raising concerns for viability. The objective is to evaluate the diagnostic characteristics of a single serum progesterone level in assessing pregnancy viability among symptomatic patients.

METHODS

We conducted a predefined literature search in MEDLINE, Embase (OVID), CINAHL and Cochrane databases for studies that enrolled patients in first trimester with miscarriage symptoms, measured progesterone and reported pregnancy viability, from inception to July 2020. We extracted data for 2 × 2 tables, progesterone threshold levels and viability. We obtained summary estimates of sensitivity, specificity, Diagnostic Odds Ratio (DOR), and predictive values at given prevalence rates.

RESULTS

We identified 54 publications. There was a total of 15,878 patients enrolled, of whom 7864 patients (49.5%) were confirmed to have a viable pregnancy and 8014 patients (50.5%) were confirmed to have a non-viable pregnancy. The cut-off value of progesterone ranged from 3.2 to 25 ng/mL (20.034-79.5 nmol/L). We evaluated the performance of the following progesterone cut-off categories: < 6.3, 6.3-12.6, 12.7-19.9, and 20-25 ng/mL. To detect non-viable pregnancy, progesterone with cut-off < 6.3 ng/mL had sensitivity 73.1%, specificity 99.2% and DOR 322.0 (PPV 0.91, 0.97 and 0.99 at prevalences 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, respectively, indicating higher likelihood of non-viable pregnancy), and cut-off category 20-25 ng/mL had sensitivity 91.3%, specificity 75% and DOR 31.4 (NPV 0.99, 0.96 and 0.89 at the prevalences above indicating higher likelihood of viable pregnancy).

CONCLUSION

A single progesterone level provides a clinically useful prognostic information on pregnancy viability. More than nine out of ten patients with a level < 6.3 ng/mL (< 20.034 nmol/L) will be diagnosed with a non-viable pregnancy, and more than 90% of patients with a level ≥ 20-25 ng/mL (63.6-79.5 nmol/L) will have a viable pregnancy confirmed.

Pregnancy-related complications and perinatal outcomes following progesterone supplementation before 20 weeks of pregnancy in spontaneously achieved singleton pregnancies: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Progesterone supplementation is widely performed in women with threatened miscarriage or a history of recurrent miscarriage; however, the effects of early progesterone supplementation on pregnancy-related complications and perinatal outcomes in later gestational weeks remain unknown.

METHODS

Ovid MEDLINE, the Cochrane Library, Embase and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched until April 3rd, 2021. Randomized controlled trials regarding spontaneously achieved singleton pregnancies who were treated with progestogen before 20 weeks of pregnancy and were compared with those women in unexposed control groups were selected for inclusion. We performed pairwise meta-analyses with the random-effects model. The risk of bias was assessed according to the Cochrane Collaboration tool. The primary outcomes included preeclampsia (PE), and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), with the results presented as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

We identified nine eligible studies involving 6439 participants. The pooled OR of subsequent PE following early progestogen supplementation was 0.64 (95% CI 0.42-0.98, moderate quality of evidence). A lower OR for PE was observed in the progestogen group when the subgroup analysis was performed in the vaginal subgroup (OR 0.62, 95%CI 0.40-0.96). There was insufficient evidence of a difference in the rate of GDM between pregnant women with early progestogen supplementation and unexposed pregnant women (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.79-1.32, low quality of evidence). The pooled OR of low birth weight (LBW) following oral dydrogesterone was 0.57 (95% CI 0.34-0.95, moderate quality of evidence). The results were affected by a single study and the total sample size of enrolled women did not reach the required information size.

CONCLUSION

Use of vaginal micronized progesterone (Utrogestan) in spontaneously achieved singleton pregnancies with threatened miscarriage before 20 weeks of pregnancy may reduce the risk of PE in later gestational weeks. Among spontaneously achieved singleton pregnancies with threatened miscarriage or a history of recurrent miscarriage, use of oral dydrogesterone before 20 weeks of pregnancy may result in a lower risk of LBW in later gestational weeks. However, the available data were not sufficient to reach definitive conclusions, which highlighted the need for future studies.

Use of oral progestogen in women with threatened miscarriage in the first trimester: a randomized double-blind controlled trial

STUDY QUESTION

Will use of oral progestogen in women with threatened miscarriage in the first trimester reduce the miscarriage rate when compared with placebo?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Use of oral progestogen in women with threatened miscarriage in the first trimester did not reduce miscarriage before 20 weeks when compared with placebo.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Miscarriage is a common complication of pregnancy and occurs in 15-20% of clinically recognized pregnancies. Use of vaginal progestogens is not effective in reducing miscarriage but there is still no good evidence to support use of oral progestogen for the treatment of threatened miscarriage.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

This was a randomized double-blind controlled trial. A total of 406 women presenting with threatened miscarriage in the first trimester were recruited from 30 March 2016 to May 2018.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Women attending Early Pregnancy Assessment Clinics because of vaginal bleeding during the first trimester were recruited and randomly assigned to use dydrogesterone 40 mg orally, followed by 10 mg orally three times a day or placebo until 12 completed weeks of gestation or 1 week after the bleeding stopped, whichever was later. The primary outcome was the miscarriage rate before 20 weeks of gestation.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

The two groups of women had comparable age, BMI, number of previous miscarriages, gestation and ultrasound findings at presentation. The miscarriage rate before 20 weeks of gestation was similar in both groups, being 12.8% (26/203) in the progestogen group and 14.3% (29/203) in the placebo group (relative risk 0.897, 95% CI 0.548-1.467; P = 0.772). The live birth rate was 81.3% in the progestogen group versus 83.3% in the placebo group (P = 0.697). No significant differences were found between the two groups in terms of obstetric outcomes and side effects.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The primary outcome was the miscarriage rate, rather than the live birth rate. Women were recruited from Early Pregnancy Assessment Clinics and those with heavy vaginal bleeding might be admitted into wards directly instead of attending Early Pregnancy Assessment Clinic. The severity of vaginal bleeding was subjectively graded by women themselves. The sample size was not adequate to demonstrate a smaller difference in the miscarriage rate between the progestogen and placebo groups. We did not exclude women with multiple pregnancy, which increased the risk of miscarriage although there was only one set of twin pregnancy in the placebo group.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Use of oral progestogen is not recommended in women with threatened miscarriage in the first trimester.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This study was funded by the Health and Medical Research Fund, HKSAR (reference number 12132341). All authors declared no conflict of interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ClinicalTrials.gov with an identifier NCT02128685.

TRIAL REGISTRATION DATE

1 May 2014.

DATE OF FIRST PATIENT'S ENROLMENT

30 March 2016.

Corpus luteum score, a simple Doppler examination to prognose early pregnancies

OBJECTIVES

In early pregnancies, miscarriages and inconclusive ultrasound scans considering location and viability are very common. In several previous studies, serum progesterone levels predicted viability of pregnancy and, in recent ones, failed Pregnancies of Unknown Location (PUL), completion of miscarriage and complications. Corpus luteum, secreting progesterone in early pregnancy, was less studied. Some publications showed correlations between corpus luteum aspects and diagnosis of miscarriage but it was not evaluated for other outcomes in early pregnancy, such as failed PUL, completion of miscarriage or complications. We aimed to assess if Doppler examination of corpus luteum could also predict all these outcomes: failed PUL, diagnosis and completion of miscarriages and complications.

STUDY DESIGN

A single operator prospectively described and/or collected pictures of Doppler signal in the wall of the corpus luteum at most consultations in our early pregnancy unit and established a three-level score. All suspected or confirmed non-viable pregnancies with this score or/and serum progesterone levels were registered retrospectively. With logistic regressions, AIC/BIC, likelihood ratios, ROC curves, Mann-Whitney and Fisher exact tests, we evaluated the ability of the score, alone, to predict failed PUL, diagnosis and completion of miscarriages and the complications, and, combined, to improve previously published predictions.

RESULTS

From 277 included pregnancies, 186 (67.1 %) miscarried. Of these, 159/186 (85.5 %) fully evacuated without surgery: 114/186 (61.3 %) within 20 days after the first diagnosis and 45/186 (24.2 %) after more than 20 days. Twenty-seven patients (14.5 %) underwent surgical evacuation, including ten complications, five haemorrhages and five suspected infections. Logistic regression correlated strongly the corpus luteum score with failed PUL (p < 0.0001) and miscarriages (p < 0.0001). Moreover, rates of complications and swift non-surgical completions of miscarriage were respectively 0 % and 92 % with scores of 0, versus 6 % and 44 % with scores of 1, versus 16 % and 0 % with scores of 2. Combined with serum progesterone levels, this score improved most predictions. Adding parity or history of miscarriage in predictive models even increased these performances.

CONCLUSIONS

Corpus luteum score, alone, can predict failed PUL, diagnosis and completion of miscarriages and their complications. Combining this score with other factors (mainly serum progesterone levels) improves most predictions.

Hormonal and reproductive factors and reduction in the risk of colorectal cancer

Females differ from males in incidence and clinical characteristics of colorectal cancer. Understanding the differences can lead to development of preventive approaches. To identify reproductive factors currently associated with the risk of colorectal cancer. Consecutively diagnosed female colorectal cancer cases and randomly chosen colorectal cancer-free controls matched on age/ethnicity/primary care clinic within the molecular epidemiology of colorectal cancer study, a population-based case-control study in Northern Israel, were included. A total of 2867 female cases and 2333 controls participated in this analysis. Participants were interviewed on reproductive history: ages at menarche, menopause, first birth, terminations of pregnancies, miscarriages, births, use of oral contraceptives. Among 5200 women, spontaneous miscarriages (odds ratio = 0.71, 0.61-0.83 for ever/never in Jews; odds ratio = 0.76, 0.53-1.08 in Arabs) and number of miscarriages, but not termination of pregnancies, as well as use, and duration of use, of oral contraceptives (Jews: odds ratio = 0.49, 0.39-0.62 for ever/never; Arabs: odds ratio = 0.14, 0.04-0.47) were strongly inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk. Up to 5 pregnancies were associated with increased risk while ages at menarche, at menopause and at first birth were not associated with colorectal cancer risk. Miscarriages but not terminations of pregnancy or full-term pregnancies, and use of oral contraceptives, were strongly associated with reduced odds of developing colorectal cancer suggesting unique hormonal influences on colorectal cancer.

Baseline Levels of Serum Progesterone and the First Trimester Pregnancy Outcome in Women with Threatened Abortion: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Objective

The relationship between serum progesterone and the first trimester pregnancy outcome of threatened abortion is still controversial. Therefore, we aimed to further study the association between these two parameters.

Methods

The present study is an observational retrospective cohort study. A total of 726 participants who had threatened abortion from a hospital in Guangdong, China, were included in this study from 17th August 2011 to 30th October 2018. The exposure variable and the outcome variable were serum progesterone measured at baseline and early pregnancy outcome, respectively. Covariates involved in this study included patients' basic demographics, obstetric history, and clinical information.

Results

A negative association and a saturation effect were detected between serum progesterone and the first trimester pregnancy outcome. When progesterone <90.62 nmol/L, an increase in 1 nmol/L of serum progesterone was associated with 3% decrease of the risk of miscarriage (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.95-0.98).

Conclusion

There was a greater risk of abortion when the serum progesterone level was less than 90.62 nmol/L. Our findings can better assist the clinician in understanding patients' conditions and making medical decisions.

Serum progesterone distribution in normal pregnancies compared to pregnancies complicated by threatened miscarriage from 5 to 13 weeks gestation: a prospective cohort study

Background

Progesterone is a critical hormone in early pregnancy. A low level of serum progesterone is associated with threatened miscarriage. We aim to establish the distribution of maternal serum progesterone in normal pregnancies compared to pregnancies complicated by threatened miscarriage from 5 to 13 weeks gestation.

Methods

This is a single centre, prospective cohort study of 929 patients. Women from the Normal Pregnancy [NP] cohort were recruited from antenatal clinics, and those in the Threatened Miscarriage [TM] cohort were recruited from emergency walk-in clinics. Women with multiple gestations, missed, incomplete or inevitable miscarriage were excluded from the study. Quantile regression was used to characterize serum progesterone levels in the NP and TM cohorts by estimating the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles from 5 to 13 weeks gestation. Pregnancy outcome was determined at 16 weeks of gestation. Subgroup analysis within the TM group compared progesterone levels of women who subsequently miscarried with those who had ongoing pregnancies at 16 weeks of gestation.

Results

Median serum progesterone concentration demonstrated a linearly increasing trend from 57.5 nmol/L to 80.8 nmol/L from 5 to 13 weeks gestation in the NP cohort. In the TM cohort, median serum progesterone concentration increased from 41.7 nmol/L to 78.1 nmol/L. However, median progesterone levels were uniformly lower in the TM cohort by approximately 10 nmol/L at every gestation week. In the subgroup analysis, median serum progesterone concentration in women with ongoing pregnancy at 16 weeks gestation demonstrated a linearly increasing trend from 5 to 13 weeks gestation. There was a marginal and non-significant increase in serum progesterone from 19.0 to 30.3 nmol/L from 5 to 13 weeks gestation in women who eventually had a spontaneous miscarriage.

Conclusions

Serum progesterone concentration increased linearly with gestational age from 5 to 13 weeks in women with normal pregnancies. Women with spontaneous miscarriage showed a marginal and non-significant increase in serum progesterone. This study highlights the pivotal role of progesterone in supporting an early pregnancy, with lower serum progesterone associated with threatened miscarriage and a subsequent complete miscarriage at 16 weeks gestation.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12884-018-2002-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Progestogen for treating threatened miscarriage

BACKGROUND

Miscarriage is a common complication encountered during pregnancy. It is defined as spontaneous pregnancy loss before 20 weeks' gestation. Progesterone's physiological role is to prepare the uterus for the implantation of the embryo, enhance uterine quiescence and suppress uterine contractions, hence, it may play a role in preventing rejection of the embryo. Inadequate secretion of progesterone in early pregnancy has been linked to the aetiology of miscarriage and progesterone supplementation has been used as a treatment for threatened miscarriage to prevent spontaneous pregnancy loss. This update of the Cochrane Review first published in 2007, and previously updated in 2011, investigates the evidence base for this practice.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the efficacy and the safety of progestogens in the treatment of threatened miscarriage.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth's Trials Register, ClinicalTrials.gov and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) (8 August 2017) and reference lists of retrieved trials.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised, quasi-randomised or cluster-randomised controlled trials, that compared progestogen with placebo, no treatment or any other treatment for the treatment of threatened miscarriage in women carrying singleton pregnancy.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

At least two review authors assessed the trials for inclusion in the review, assessed trial quality and extracted the data and graded the body of evidence.

MAIN RESULTS

We included seven trials (involving 696 participants) in this update of the review. The included trials were conducted in different countries, covering the full spectrum of the World Bank's economic classification, which enhances the applicability of evidence drawn from this review. Two trials were conducted in Germany and Italy which are high-income countries, while four trials were conducted in upper-middle income countries; two in Iran, one in Malaysia and the fourth in Turkey, and the seventh trial was conducted in Jordan, which is a lower-middle income country. In six trials all the participants met the inclusion criteria and in the seventh study, we included in the meta-analysis only the subgroup of participants who met the inclusion criteria. We assessed the body of evidence for the main outcomes using the GRADE tool and the quality of the evidence ranged from very low to moderate. Downgrading of evidence was based on the high risk of bias in six of the seven included trials and a small number of events and wide confidence intervals for some outcomes.Treatment of miscarriage with progestogens compared to placebo or no treatment probably reduces the risk of miscarriage; (risk ratio (RR) 0.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.47 to 0.87; 7 trials; 696 women; moderate-quality evidence). Treatment with oral progestogen compared to no treatment also probably reduces the miscarriage rate (RR 0.57, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.85; 3 trials; 408 women; moderate-quality evidence). However treatment with vaginal progesterone compared to placebo, probably has little or no effect in reducing the miscarriage rate (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.47 to 1.21; 4 trials; 288 women; moderate-quality evidence). The subgroup interaction test indicated no difference according to route of administration between the oral and vaginal subgroups of progesterone.Treatment of preterm birth with the use of progestogens compared to placebo or no treatment may have little or no effect in reducing the rate of preterm birth (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.44; 5 trials; 588 women; low-quality evidence).We are uncertain if treatment of threatened miscarriage with progestogens compared to placebo or no treatment has any effect on the rate of congenital abnormalities because the quality of the evidence is very low (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.10 to 4.82; 2 trials; 337 infants; very-low quality evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The results of this Cochrane Review suggest that progestogens are probably effective in the treatment of threatened miscarriage but may have little or no effect in the rate of preterm birth. The evidence on congenital abnormalities is uncertain, because the quality of the evidence for this outcome was based on only two small trials with very few events and was found to be of very low quality.

The Influence of Oral Dydrogesterone and Vaginal Progesterone on Threatened Abortion: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Objective

To conduct systematic analyses to evaluate the efficacy of progesterone therapy for the prevention of miscarriages in pregnant women experiencing threatened abortion.

Methods

In November 2016, we performed a systematic literature search and identified 51 articles in PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases. We identified nine randomized trials that included 913 pregnant women (including 322 treated with oral dydrogesterone, 213 treated with vaginal progesterone, and 378 control subjects) who met the selection criteria.

Results

The incidence of miscarriage was significantly lower in the total progesterone group than in the control group (13.0% versus 21.7%; odds ratio, 0.53; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.36 to 0.78; P = 0.001; I², 0%). Moreover, the incidence of miscarriage was significantly lower in the oral dydrogesterone group than in the control group (11.7% versus 22.6%; odds ratio, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.71; P = 0.001; I², 0%) and was lower in the vaginal progesterone group than in the control group, although this difference was nonsignificant (15.4% versus 20.3%; odds ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.39 to 1.34; P = 0.30; I², 0%). However, the incidence of miscarriage was not different between the oral dydrogesterone and vaginal progesterone groups.

Conclusion

Progesterone therapy, especially oral dydrogesterone, can effectively prevent miscarriage in pregnant women experiencing threatened abortion.

Is progestogen supplementation necessary to prevent abortion?

A prospective study was conducted to evaluate the effect of progestogens on the pregnancy outcome of threatened abortion (TA). A total of 251 pregnant women less than 20 weeks of gestational age (GA) were included. Group 1 consisted of women with vaginal bleeding who had already been under treatment with progestogens and Group 2 was composed of women with vaginal bleeding who were only followed without progestogen therapy, whereas Group 3 was the control group without any vaginal bleeding or progestogen therapy. The pregnancy outcomes and serum progesterone levels were compared among the groups. The mean serum progesterone concentrations were statistically significantly higher in Group 1 in comparison to Group 2 and 3 (p < 0.001). Abortion rates were similar among the study groups. Although progestogen supplementation leads to increased level of serum progesterone, this finding does not translate to its beneficial effect on the pregnancy outcomes in cases of TAs.

A randomized double-blind controlled trial of the use of dydrogesterone in women with threatened miscarriage in the first trimester: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background

Miscarriage is a common complication of pregnancy occurring in 15–20 % of all clinically recognized pregnancies. Currently, there is still no good scientific evidence to support the routine use of progestogens for the treatment of threatened miscarriage because the existing studies were not large enough to show a significant difference and some of them were not randomized or double-blind.

Methods

This is a double-blind, randomized controlled trial. A total of 400 patients presenting with first-trimester threatened miscarriage will be enrolled. They will be randomized to take dydrogesterone 40 mg per os, followed by 10 mg per os three times a day or placebo until twelve completed weeks of gestation or 1 week after the bleeding has stopped, whichever is longer. The primary outcome is the percentage of miscarriage before 20 weeks of gestation.

Discussion

We postulate that the dydrogesterone therapy will significantly reduce the risk of miscarriage in women with threatened miscarriage.

Trial registration

This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02128685. Registered on 29 April 2014.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-016-1509-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Role of serum biomarkers in the prediction of outcome in women with threatened miscarriage: a systematic review and diagnostic accuracy meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Threatened miscarriage affects one in five women and is associated with significant emotional distress. The uncertainty around the prognosis of threatened miscarriage makes it equally challenging to the healthcare professionals. Various biochemical markers have been investigated in the past to predict the outcome of threatened miscarriage; however, the results have been conflicting. Therefore, we have conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the diagnostic accuracy of biochemical markers in predicting the outcome in women presenting with threatened miscarriage.

METHODS

This is a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies that investigated biochemical markers to determine outcomes for women with threatened miscarriage at 5-23 weeks gestational age. Electronic databases were searched up to June 2015 and study quality assessment was performed using QUADAS-2 (Quality Assessment for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2: A Revised Tool) for evaluating the diagnostic accuracy studies. Statistical analysis was performed using the Cochrane systematic review software.

RESULTS

A total of 19 studies were included in the qualitative data synthesis of which 15 (including 1263 women) were eligible for the meta-analysis. The review highlights the role of biochemical markers serum progesterone, hCG, pregnancy associated plasma protein A, estradiol and cancer antigen 125 (CA 125) in the prediction of outcome in women with threatened miscarriage. Interestingly, serum CA 125 appears to be the most promising marker (n = 648 women in seven studies), whereas serum progesterone and hCG are less useful once fetal viability is established. The summary receiver operating characteristics for CA 125 showed a sensitivity of 90% (95% confidence interval (CI) 83-94%), specificity of 88% (95% CI 79-93%), positive likelihood ratio of 7.86 (95% CI 4.23-14.60) and negative likelihood ratio of 0.10 (95% CI 0.06-0.20). The inverse of negative likelihood ratio was 9.31 (95% CI 5-17.1) indicating that a negative test is likely to identify those who are likely to continue with the pregnancy. Serum estradiol was the next best marker with a sensitivity of 45% (95% CI 6-90%), a specificity of 87% (95% CI 81-92%), a positive likelihood ratio of 3.72 (95% CI 1.01-13.71) and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.62 (95% CI 0.20-1.84).

CONCLUSIONS

In women with threatened miscarriage, serum CA 125 has high predictive value in identifying pregnancies that are 'likely to continue', whereas the most commonly used biomarkers of serum hCG and progesterone are not useful in predicting outcome of a pregnancy with a viable fetus. Other markers such as inhibin A and a combination of markers need to be investigated to hopefully improve the prediction of outcome in women with threatened miscarriage.

The Diagnostic Value of β-Human Chorionic Gonadotropin, Progesterone, and Ischemia-Modified Albumin and Their Combined Use in the Prediction of First Trimester Abortions

Objective. To investigate serum levels of free β-HCG, progesterone, and ischemia-modified albumin (IMA) and their combined use in the prediction of first trimester abortions. Methods. A total of 156 pregnant women between 5 and 13 weeks of gestational age were included in this study. At admission, serum levels of free β-HCG, progesterone, and IMA were noted and all cases were divided into two groups; Group I (n = 77) resulted in abortion including missed abortion, incomplete/complete abortion, and inevitable abortion whereas Group II (n = 79) included normal pregnancies. Results. Compared to Group II, the significantly decreased value of free β-HCG progesterone and significantly increased value of IMA were found in Group I (P < 0.01, P < 0.01, P < 0.01, resp.). When combining all three parameters, sensitivity 75%, specificity 99%, PPV 98%, and NPV 76% were obtained. The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed the free β-HCG, progesterone, and IMA independent factors in the prediction of abortions. Conclusions. The combined use of free β-HCG, progesterone, and IMA levels can be useful in the prediction of first trimester spontaneous abortions.

Progestogen for treating threatened miscarriage

BACKGROUND

Miscarriage is a common complication encountered during pregnancy. The role of progesterone in preparing the uterus for the implantation of the embryo and its role in maintaining the pregnancy have been known for a long time. Inadequate secretion of progesterone in early pregnancy has been linked to the aetiology of miscarriage and progesterone supplementation has been used as a treatment for threatened miscarriage to prevent spontaneous pregnancy loss.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the efficacy and the safety of progestogens in the treatment of threatened miscarriage.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group's Trials Register (30 September 2011) and bibliographies of all located articles for any additional studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials that compare progestogen with placebo, no treatment or any other treatment given in an effort to treat threatened miscarriage.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

At least two authors assessed the trials for inclusion in the review, assessed trial quality and extracted the data. Data were checked for accuracy.

MAIN RESULTS

We included four studies (421 participants) in the meta-analysis. In three studies all the participants met the inclusion criteria and in the fourth study, we included only the subgroup of participants who met the inclusion criteria in the meta-analysis. There was evidence of a reduction in the rate of spontaneous miscarriage with the use of progestogens compared to placebo or no treatment (risk ratio (RR) 0.53; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.35 to 0.79). There was no increase in the rate of antepartum haemorrhage (RR 0.76; 95% CI 0.30 to 1.94), or pregnancy-induced hypertension (RR 1.00; 95% CI 0.54 to 1.88) for the mother. The rate of congenital abnormalities was no different between the newborns of the mothers who received progestogens and those who did not (RR 0.70; 95% CI 0.10 to 4.82).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The data from this review suggest that the use of progestogens is effective in the treatment of threatened miscarriage with no evidence of increased rates of pregnancy-induced hypertension or antepartum haemorrhage as harmful effects to the mother, nor increased occurrence of congenital abnormalities on the newborn. However, the analysis was limited by the small number and the poor methodological quality of eligible studies (four studies) and the small number of the participants (421), which limit the power of the meta-analysis and hence of this conclusion.