Prognostic studies in breast cancer. Multivariate combination of nodal status, proliferation index, tumor size, and DNA ploidy

Positive predictive value of axillary lymph node cortical thickness and nodal, clinical, and tumor characteristics in newly diagnosed breast cancer patients

PURPOSE

Axillary lymph nodes (LNs) with cortical thickness > 3 mm have a higher likelihood of malignancy. To examine the positive predictive value (PPV) of axillary LN cortical thickness in newly diagnosed breast cancer patients, and nodal, clinical, and tumor characteristics associated with axillary LN metastasis.

METHODS

Retrospective review of axillary LN fine needle aspirations (FNAs) performed 1/1/2018-12/31/2019 included 135 axillary FNAs in 134 patients who underwent axillary surgery. Patient demographics, clinical characteristics, histopathology, and imaging features were obtained from medical records. Hypothesis testing was performed to identify predictors of axillary LN metastasis.

RESULTS

Cytology was positive in 72/135 (53.3%), negative in 61/135 (45.2%), and non-diagnostic in 2/135 (1.5%). At surgery, histopathology was positive in 84 (62.2%) and negative in 51 (37.8%). LN cortices were thicker in metastatic compared to negative nodes (p < 0.0001). PPV of axillary LNs with cortical thickness ≥ 3 mm, ≥ 3.5 mm, ≥ 4 mm and, ≥ 4.25 mm was 0.62 [95% CI 0.53, 0.70], 0.63 [0.54, 0.72], 0.67 [0.57, 0.76] , and 0.74 [0.64, 0.83], respectively. At multivariable analysis, abnormal hilum (OR = 3.44, p = 0.016) and diffuse cortical thickening (OR = 2.86, p = 0.038) were associated with nodal metastasis.

CONCLUSION

In newly diagnosed breast cancer patients, increasing axillary LN cortical thickness, abnormal fatty hilum, and diffuse cortical thickening are associated with nodal metastasis. PPV of axillary LN cortical thickness ≥ 3 mm and ≥ 3.5 mm is similar but increases for cortical thickness ≥ 4 mm. FNA of axillary LNs with cortex < 4 mm may be unnecessary for some patients undergoing sentinel LN biopsy.

Prognostic models for breast cancer: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women worldwide, with a great diversity in outcomes among individual patients. The ability to accurately predict a breast cancer outcome is important to patients, physicians, researchers, and policy makers. Many models have been developed and tested in different settings. We systematically reviewed the prognostic models developed and/or validated for patients with breast cancer.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search in four electronic databases and some oncology websites, and a manual search in the bibliographies of the included studies. We identified original studies that were published prior to 1st January 2017, and presented the development and/or validation of models based mainly on clinico-pathological factors to predict mortality and/or recurrence in female breast cancer patients.

RESULTS

From the 96 articles selected from 4095 citations found, we identified 58 models, which predicted mortality (n = 28), recurrence (n = 23), or both (n = 7). The most frequently used predictors were nodal status (n = 49), tumour size (n = 42), tumour grade (n = 29), age at diagnosis (n = 24), and oestrogen receptor status (n = 21). Models were developed in Europe (n = 25), Asia (n = 13), North America (n = 12), and Australia (n = 1) between 1982 and 2016. Models were validated in the development cohorts (n = 43) and/or independent populations (n = 17), by comparing the predicted outcomes with the observed outcomes (n = 55) and/or with the outcomes estimated by other models (n = 32), or the outcomes estimated by individual prognostic factors (n = 8). The most commonly used methods were: Cox proportional hazards regression for model development (n = 32); the absolute differences between the predicted and observed outcomes (n = 30) for calibration; and C-index/AUC (n = 44) for discrimination. Overall, the models performed well in the development cohorts but less accurately in some independent populations, particularly in patients with high risk and young and elderly patients. An exception is the Nottingham Prognostic Index, which retains its predicting ability in most independent populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Many prognostic models have been developed for breast cancer, but only a few have been validated widely in different settings. Importantly, their performance was suboptimal in independent populations, particularly in patients with high risk and in young and elderly patients.

Prognostic value of proliferation markers: immunohistochemical ki-67 expression and cytometric s-phase fraction of women with breast cancer in libya

Background: We evaluated the association of the immunohistochemical Ki-67 expression, and S-phase fraction with clinicopathological variables and patient outcome.

Patients and methods: Histological samples from 100 primary Libyan breast carcinoma patients were retrospectively studied with monoclonal antibody to Ki-67. S-phase fraction was determined by DNA image cytometry.

Results: The median Ki-67 percentage for all tumors was 27.5%, ranging from 1 to 80% and the median S-phase fraction (SPF) was 11%, ranging from 0 to 62 %. Tumors with high Ki-67 expression were found in 76% of patients and with high SPF values in 56%. Ki-67 expression was more frequent in tumors with high SPF than low SPF. High Ki-67 and high SPF were associated with advanced stages, poor differentiation of tumors, positive lymph nodes, and distant metastasis. The Ki-67 was associated with hormone receptor negative tumors. The SPF was higher in young patients (<50 years) than in older patients. In the overall population (median follow-up 49 months), patients with high Ki-67 and high SPF had shorter survival time and predicted recurrence than patients with low Ki-67 and low SPF. In a Cox multivariate analysis, high SPF (p= 0.007), hormonal status (p= 0.001) and clinical stage (p=0.005) were independent predictors of disease-specific survival. The Ki-67 (p=0.065) in borderline significance proved to be independent predictor of disease-free survival. The SPF showed more statistically significance with a high grade of malignancy and survival time than Ki-67.

Conclusions: The SPF value is useful cell proliferation marker to assess tumor prognosis. These markers may reflect the aggressive behavior of Libyan breast cancer and predict of the recurrence. It is therefore important to take these markers into consideration to select a high risk subgroup of the patients for intensive treatment.

Prognostic significance of DNA image cytometry in Libyan breast cancer

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the relation of nuclear DNA content and clinicopathological features and prognosis in primary breast cancer of female Libyan patients with variable stage and grade and different treatment regimes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Histological samples from 104 patients of breast carcinoma were retrospectively studied by computerized nuclear DNA cytometry. Isolated nuclei from paraffin sections were stained with Feulgen stain and DNA was measured using a computer-assisted image analysis cytometry system. In each case, 200 nuclei were measured and the DNA histograms, S phase fraction (SPF) and number of cells above 5c and 9c were determined. We applied different approaches in the analysis of DNA to compare the DNA histograms with different clinicopathological features and survival.

RESULTS

The mean of DNA ploidy mode for all tumors was 3.43; 82.7% of tumors were aneuploid and 17.3% were diploid. The median SPF was 3.5% for DNA diploid and 13.5% for DNA aneuploid tumors. DNA aneuploid tumors and high SPF were associated with advanced stage, distant metastasis, high histological grade and lymph node involvement. The SPF was also associated with large tumor size and with younger patients (<50 years). In the overall population (median follow-up 51 months), patients with aneuploid DNA histograms and high SPF values had shorter survival times than those with diploid DNA histograms and low SPF values (p = 0.001, p < 0.0001, respectively). Also, short survival was associated with a multiploid DNA histogram and with DNA aneuploid cells ≥5 cells (p < 0.0001, p = 0.001, respectively). In a Cox multivariate analysis, DNA ploidy (p = 0.010), age (p = 0.038) and clinical stage (p = 0.001) were independent predictors of overall survival, and DNA ploidy (p = 0.018) and clinical stage (p = 0.001) also proved to be independent predictors of disease-specific survival. The SPF cutoff point of 11% might be applied to separate patients into good and poor prognosis groups.

CONCLUSIONS

DNA image cytometry with careful analysis of the histograms may provide valuable prognostic information in Libyan breast cancer, with potential clinical implications in patient management, particularly in predicting the patients at high risk for metastasis and recurrence who should be considered as candidates for combined adjuvant therapy.

Lymph node status as a guide to selection of available prognostic markers in breast cancer: the clinical practice of the future?

Prognosticators evaluating survival in breast cancer vary in significance in respect to lymph node status. Studies have shown e.g. that HER2/neu immunohistochemistry or HER2/neu gene amplification analysis do perform well as prognosticators in lymph node positive (LN +) patients but are less valuable in lymph node negative (LN -) patients. We collected data from different studies and tried to evaluate the relative significance of different prognosticators in LN+/LN- patient groups. In LN+ patients HER2/neu and E-cadherin immunohistochemistry were the statistically most significant prognosticators followed by proliferation associated features (mitotic counts by SMI (standardised mitotic index) or MAI (mitotic activity index), or S-phase fraction). Bcl-2 immunohistochemistry was also significant but p53 and cystatin A had no significance as prognosticators. In LN- patients proliferation associated prognosticators (SMI, MAI, Ki-67 index, PCNA immunohistochemistry, S-phase fraction) are especially valuable and also Cathepsin D, cystatin A, and p53 are significant, but HER2/neu or bcl-2, or E-cadherin less significant or without significance. We find that in studies evaluating single prognosticators one should distinguish between prognosticators suitable for LN+ and LN- patients. This will allow the choice of best prognosticators in evaluating the prospects of the patient. The distinction between LN+ and LN- patients in this respect may also be of special value in therapeutic decisions.

Influence of cellularity in human breast carcinoma

Ninty-three cases of both invasive ductal and lobular carcinoma were examined to clarify the relationship between the clinicopathological factors and cellularity (cell density) or total cancer cells number in carcinoma tissues. The cellularity showed significant correlation with tumor size and vascular invasion, but not with other clinicopathological factors (menopausal status, operation method, ER status, histological grade or type, lymph node stage) and prognosis. The total cancer cell number revealed a positive relationship with survival (overall survival) and disease-free interval (DFI) by univariate analysis, even though it did not show any positive correlation with other clinicopathological factors in this study. Moreover, it was not found to have any stronger impact than other previously reported prognostic factors such as tumor size, lymph node stage or tumor grade by multivariate analysis. From these evidences, we speculate that the cellularity correlates with expansion or invasion of tumor cells and the total number of cancer cells reflects the prognosis of the tumor-bearing host, although it does not play a major role in prediction.

Evaluation and reinforcement of the correlation of S-phase fraction with nodal metastases, tumor grade and tumor size in breast carcinoma patients in Pakistan

The aim of this study was to evaluate the S-phase fraction (SPF) of tumors in breast cancer patients in Pakistan. Its association with the traditional morphological prognostic markers, i.e., axillary lymph node metastasis, tumor size and grade, was also studied. Flow cytometry was used to estimate SPF on breast cancer tissues from 166 patients reported at the Aga Khan University Hospital between the years 1997 and 2000. Univariate analysis was done to find any association between SPF and the aforesaid variables. For the ease of analysis, the cases were subdivided into two categories depending on the SPF value, i.e., <10% (low-risk group) and > or = 10% (high-risk group). The mean and median SPF values were 21.45% and 20.035%, respectively, with a range of 3.26% to 54.30%. Twenty-six (15.66%) of the cases had SPF <10%, 57 (34.34%) had SPF from 10%-20%, and 83 (50%) had SPF >20%. A significant correlation between SPF and nodal metastasis was observed (p = 0.0111), but not between SPF and the number of lymph nodes involved when metastatic cases were subdivided into <4 lymph node-positive cases and > or =4 lymph node-positive cases. Significant correlations were also found between SPF and tumor grade (p = 0.0244), as well as between SPF and tumor size (p = 0.048). In conclusion, DNA flow cytometric analysis of SPF carried out in our laboratory could reasonably predict the chances of lymph node metastasis, tumor grade and size in breast cancer patients, thus proving to be an important prognostic marker in the Pakistani setting. This requires further investigations regarding the survival of patients so as to evaluate its capacity of predicting the outcome of Pakistani patients.

Routinely available indicators of prognosis in breast cancer

Diagnosis coupled with prognostication is the challenge for and charge of the pathologist. In this time of rapidly developing basic knowledge and increasing sophistication in the evaluation of prognostic information, there has also been an important re-evaluation of the validity, reliability, and relevance of classic histopathology. Also, the precision of and criteria for evaluating tumor size and status of regional lymph nodes is under study. Our emphasis in this review is tissue pathology and further, its practical relevance to patient management. Histopathology remains the basis of diagnosis universally; the addition of other elements will increase precision of prediction, particularly of responsiveness to individual therapies. Histologic grade may be integrated to substratify high and low stage cases into prognostically more useful subsets. Histologic types also interact with size and nodal status to predict patients with excellent prognosis. Further refinement of these parameters may occur by analysis within clinical, pathologic, or therapeutic subsets.

The cell cycle in breast cancer

Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease regarding morphology, invasive behavior, metastatic capacity, hormone receptor expression and clinical outcome. For prediction of prognosis, tumor cell kinetics is an important feature, traditionally evaluated by estimation of cell growth-associated parameters such as mitotic index, S-phase fraction and expression of proliferation coupled proteins, for example proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) and Ki-67 antigen. Recent data indicate that deregulation of the cell cycle can occur at different levels in cancer and that the "deregulation pattern" can be of clinical significance. In the present overview we give a short description of approaches used for cell proliferation assessments, whereafter more recent data on cell cycle deregulation are discussed. Alterations of importance in breast cancer include overexpression of cyclins D1 and E, down-regulation of cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitors, such as p16, and inactivation of the retinoblastoma and p53 tumor suppressor proteins.