Combination of renal biomarkers predicts acute kidney injury in critically ill adults

Biomarkers for assessing acute kidney injury for people who are being considered for admission to critical care: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury is a serious complication that occurs in the context of an acute critical illness or during a postoperative period. Earlier detection of acute kidney injury may facilitate strategies to preserve renal function, prevent further disease progression and reduce mortality. Acute kidney injury diagnosis relies on a rise in serum creatinine levels and/or fall in urine output; however, creatinine is an imperfect marker of kidney function. There is interest in the performance of novel biomarkers used in conjunction with existing clinical assessment, such as NephroCheck^® (Astute Medical, Inc., San Diego, CA, USA), ARCHITECT^® urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) (Abbott Laboratories, Abbott Park, IL, USA), and urine and plasma BioPorto NGAL (BioPorto Diagnostics A/S, Hellerup, Denmark) immunoassays. If reliable, these biomarkers may enable earlier identification of acute kidney injury and enhance management of those with a modifiable disease course.

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to evaluate the role of biomarkers for assessing acute kidney injury in critically ill patients who are considered for admission to critical care.

DATA SOURCES

Major electronic databases, conference abstracts and ongoing studies were searched up to June 2019, with no date restrictions. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Health Technology Assessment Database, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science, World Health Organization Global Index Medicus, EU Clinical Trials Register, International Clinical Trials Registry Platform and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to evaluate the performance of novel biomarkers for the detection of acute kidney injury and prediction of other relevant clinical outcomes. Random-effects models were adopted to combine evidence. A decision tree was developed to evaluate costs and quality-adjusted life-years accrued as a result of changes in short-term outcomes (up to 90 days), and a Markov model was used to extrapolate results over a lifetime time horizon.

RESULTS

A total of 56 studies (17,967 participants), mainly prospective cohort studies, were selected for inclusion. No studies addressing the clinical impact of the use of biomarkers on patient outcomes, compared with standard care, were identified. The main sources of bias across studies were a lack of information on blinding and the optimal threshold for NGAL. For prediction studies, the reporting of statistical details was limited. Although the meta-analyses results showed the potential ability of these biomarkers to detect and predict acute kidney injury, there were limited data to establish any causal link with longer-term health outcomes and there were considerable clinical differences across studies. Cost-effectiveness results were highly uncertain, largely speculative and should be interpreted with caution in the light of the limited evidence base. To illustrate the current uncertainty, 15 scenario analyses were undertaken. Incremental quality-adjusted life-years were very low across all scenarios, ranging from positive to negative increments. Incremental costs were also small, in general, with some scenarios generating cost savings with tests dominant over standard care (cost savings with quality-adjusted life-year gains). However, other scenarios generated results whereby the candidate tests were more costly with fewer quality-adjusted life-years, and were thus dominated by standard care. Therefore, it was not possible to determine a plausible base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the tests, compared with standard care.

LIMITATIONS

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness results were hampered by the considerable heterogeneity across identified studies. Economic model predictions should also be interpreted cautiously because of the unknown impact of NGAL-guided treatment, and uncertain causal links between changes in acute kidney injury status and changes in health outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Current evidence is insufficient to make a full appraisal of the role and economic value of these biomarkers and to determine whether or not they provide cost-effective improvements in the clinical outcomes of acute kidney injury patients.

FUTURE WORK

Future studies should evaluate the targeted use of biomarkers among specific patient populations and the clinical impact of their routine use on patient outcomes and management.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019147039.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 7. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Potential Value of TNF-α (-376 G/A) Polymorphism and Cystatin C (CysC) in the Diagnosis of Sepsis Associated Acute Kidney Injury (S-AK I) and Prediction of Mortality in Critically Ill patients

Sepsis Associated Kidney Injury represents a major health concern as it is frequently associated with increased risk of mortality and morbidity. We aimed to evaluate the potential value of TNF-α (-376 G/A) and cystatin C in the diagnosis of S-AKI and prediction of mortality in critically ill patients. This study included 200 critically ill patients and 200 healthy controls. Patients were categorized into 116 with acute septic shock and 84 with sepsis, from which 142 (71%) developed S-AKI. Genotyping of TNF-α (-376 G/A) was performed by RT-PCR and serum CysC was assessed by Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay. Our results showed a highly significant difference in the genotype frequencies of TNF-α (-376 G/A) SNP between S-AKI and non-AKI patients (p < 0.001). Additionally, sCysC levels were significantly higher in the S-AKI group (p = 0.011). The combination of both sCysC and TNF-α (-376 G/A) together had a better diagnostic ability for S-AKI than sCysC alone (AUC = 0.610, 0.838, respectively). Both GA and AA genotypes were independent predictors of S-AKI (p= < 0.001, p = 0.002 respectively). Additionally, sCysC was significantly associated with the risk of S-AKI development (Odds Ratio = 1.111). Both genotypes and sCysC were significant predictors of non-survival (p < 0.001), suggesting their potential role in the diagnosis of S-AKI and prediction of mortality.

A nomogram incorporating functional and tubular damage biomarkers to predict the risk of acute kidney injury for septic patients

Background

Combining tubular damage and functional biomarkers may improve prediction precision of acute kidney injury (AKI). Serum cystatin C (sCysC) represents functional damage of kidney, while urinary N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase (uNAG) is considered as a tubular damage biomarker. So far, there is no nomogram containing this combination to predict AKI in septic cohort. We aimed to compare the performance of AKI prediction models with or without incorporating these two biomarkers and develop an effective nomogram for septic patients in intensive care unit (ICU).

Methods

This was a prospective study conducted in the mixed medical-surgical ICU of a tertiary care hospital. Adults with sepsis were enrolled. The patients were divided into development and validation cohorts in chronological order of ICU admission. A logistic regression model for AKI prediction was first constructed in the development cohort. The contribution of the biomarkers (sCysC, uNAG) to this model for AKI prediction was assessed with the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC), continuous net reclassification index (cNRI), and incremental discrimination improvement (IDI). Then nomogram was established based on the model with the best performance. This nomogram was validated in the validation cohort in terms of discrimination and calibration. The decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the nomogram’s clinical utility.

Results

Of 358 enrolled patients, 232 were in the development cohort (69 AKI), while 126 in the validation cohort (52 AKI). The first clinical model included the APACHE II score, serum creatinine, and vasopressor used at ICU admission. Adding sCysC and uNAG to this model improved the AUC to 0.831. Furthermore, incorporating them significantly improved risk reclassification over the predictive model alone, with cNRI (0.575) and IDI (0.085). A nomogram was then established based on the new model including sCysC and uNAG. Application of this nomogram in the validation cohort yielded fair discrimination with an AUC of 0.784 and good calibration. The DCA revealed good clinical utility of this nomogram.

Conclusions

A nomogram that incorporates functional marker (sCysC) and tubular damage marker (uNAG), together with routine clinical factors may be a useful prognostic tool for individualized prediction of AKI in septic patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12882-021-02388-w.

The future for diagnostic tests of acute kidney injury in critical care: evidence synthesis, care pathway analysis and research prioritisation

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is highly prevalent in hospital inpatient populations, leading to significant mortality and morbidity, reduced quality of life and high short- and long-term health-care costs for the NHS. New diagnostic tests may offer an earlier diagnosis or improved care, but evidence of benefit to patients and of value to the NHS is required before national adoption.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the potential for AKI in vitro diagnostic tests to enhance the NHS care of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and identify an efficient supporting research strategy.

DATA SOURCES

We searched ClinicalTrials.gov, The Cochrane Library databases, Embase, Health Management Information Consortium, International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, MEDLINE, metaRegister of Current Controlled Trials, PubMed and Web of Science databases from their inception dates until September 2014 (review 1), November 2015 (review 2) and July 2015 (economic model). Details of databases used for each review and coverage dates are listed in the main report.

REVIEW METHODS

The AKI-Diagnostics project included horizon scanning, systematic reviewing, meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity, appraisal of analytical validity, care pathway analysis, model-based lifetime economic evaluation from a UK NHS perspective and value of information (VOI) analysis.

RESULTS

The horizon-scanning search identified 152 potential tests and biomarkers. Three tests, Nephrocheck^® (Astute Medical, Inc., San Diego, CA, USA), NGAL and cystatin C, were subjected to detailed review. The meta-analysis was limited by variable reporting standards, study quality and heterogeneity, but sensitivity was between 0.54 and 0.92 and specificity was between 0.49 and 0.95 depending on the test. A bespoke critical appraisal framework demonstrated that analytical validity was also poorly reported in many instances. In the economic model the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from £11,476 to £19,324 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), with a probability of cost-effectiveness between 48% and 54% when tests were compared with current standard care.

LIMITATIONS

The major limitation in the evidence on tests was the heterogeneity between studies in the definitions of AKI and the timing of testing.

CONCLUSIONS

Diagnostic tests for AKI in the ICU offer the potential to improve patient care and add value to the NHS, but cost-effectiveness remains highly uncertain. Further research should focus on the mechanisms by which a new test might change current care processes in the ICU and the subsequent cost and QALY implications. The VOI analysis suggested that further observational research to better define the prevalence of AKI developing in the ICU would be worthwhile. A formal randomised controlled trial of biomarker use linked to a standardised AKI care pathway is necessary to provide definitive evidence on whether or not adoption of tests by the NHS would be of value.

STUDY REGISTRATION

The systematic review within this study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014013919.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Endothelial Damage Signals Refractory Acute Kidney Injury in Critically Ill Patients

Critically ill patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) are heterogeneous on pathophysiology and prognosis. The role of endothelial damage in the pathogenesis of refractory AKI has not been clarified. The aim was to determine if biomarkers of endothelial damage, independently of the inflammatory insult on the kidney, can predict recovery of acute kidney injury.

METHODS

From the "Procalcitonin And Survival Study" multicenter intensive care unit cohort, followed for 28 days after admission, we included patients without chronic kidney disease, who survived >24 h after admission and with plasma samples at admission available for biomarker analysis. We defined AKI by the "Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes" guidelines and recovery of prior kidney function as alive for five consecutive days after admission with no need for renal replacement therapy and creatinine levels consistently below ×1.5 the level before admission. We adjusted models for age, gender, vasopressor treatment, mechanical ventilation and levels of creatinine, procalcitonin, platelets, and bilirubin at admission.

RESULTS

Of a total 213 with AKI at admission, 99 recovered prior kidney function during follow-up. Endothelial damage on admission, measured by Soluble Thrombomodulin (sTM), was the strongest predictor of a reduced chance of recovery of prior kidney function (sTM in the highest vs. three lower quartiles hazard ratio 0.39; 95% confidence interval 0.21-0.73, P = 0.003). In contrast, the degree of the initial inflammatory insult on the kidney, measured by neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), failed to predict this outcome (NGAL in highest vs. three lower quartiles hazard ratio = 1.20; 95% CI 0.72-2.00; P = 0.48). Procalcitonin, a specific marker of bacterial infection, was also associated with the rate of recovery (PCT in highest vs. three lower quartiles hazard ratio = 0.59; 95% CI 0.36-0.98; P = 0.04).

CONCLUSION

AKI patients with high levels of sTM had a reduced chance of recovering prior renal function. Our findings support disintegration of the endothelium as a critical point in the pathogenesis of AKI that is refractory to treatment.

Evaluation of clinically available renal biomarkers in critically ill adults: a prospective multicenter observational study

BACKGROUND

Although serum cystatin C (sCysC), urinary N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase (uNAG), and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (uACR) are clinically available, their optimal combination for acute kidney injury (AKI) detection and prognosis prediction remains unclear. We aimed to assess the discriminative abilities of these biomarkers and their possible combinations for AKI detection and intensive care unit (ICU) mortality prediction in critically ill adults.

METHODS

A multicenter, prospective observational study was conducted in mixed medical-surgical ICUs at three tertiary care hospitals. One thousand eighty-four adult critically ill patients admitted to the ICUs were studied. We assessed the use of individual biomarkers (sCysC, uNAG, and uACR) measured at ICU admission and their combinations with regard to AKI detection and prognosis prediction.

RESULTS

AUC-ROCs for sCysC, uNAG, and uACR were calculated for total AKI (0.738, 0.650, and 0.683, respectively), severe AKI (0.839, 0.706, and 0.771, respectively), and ICU mortality (0.727, 0.793, and 0.777, respectively). The panel of sCysC plus uNAG detected total and severe AKI with significantly higher accuracy than either individual biomarkers or the other two panels (uNAG plus uACR or sCysC plus uACR). For detecting total AKI, severe AKI, and ICU mortality at ICU admission, this panel yielded AUC-ROCs of 0.756, 0.863, and 0.811, respectively; positive predictive values of 0.71, 0.31, and 0.17, respectively; and negative predictive values of 0.81, 0.97, and 0.98, respectively. Moreover, this panel significantly contributed to the accuracy of the clinical models for AKI detection and ICU mortality prediction, as measured by the AUC-ROC, continuous net reclassification index, and incremental discrimination improvement index. The comparable performance of this panel was further confirmed with bootstrap internal validation.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of a functional marker (sCysC) and a tubular damage marker (uNAG) revealed significantly superior discriminative performance for AKI detection and yielded additional prognostic information on ICU mortality.

Predictive value of serum cystatin C for acute kidney injury in adults: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort trials

The role of serum cystatin C (Scys) for the detection of acute kidney injury (AKI) has not been fully discussed. This meta-analysis was aimed to investigate the overall diagnostic accuracy of Scys for AKI in adults, and further identify factors affecting its performance. Studies before Sept. 2016 were retrieved from PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library. A total of 30 prospective cohort studies (involving 4247 adults from 15 countries, 982 patients occurring AKI) were included. The revised Quality Assessment for Studies of Diagnostic Accuracy (QUADAS-2) tools demonstrated no significant bias had influenced the methodological quality of the included studies. Scys showed a high predictive power for all-cause AKI, that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.89. The detailed assessment parameters, such as sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio and diagnostic odds ratio for Scys were 0.82, 0.82, 4.6, 0.22 and 21, respectively. Although Scys could be slightly influenced by the following factors: settings, AKI diagnostic criteria, ethnicity, determination method, age and gender, these factors above did not reach statistically significance. In conclusion, Scys could be a vital promising marker to screen out AKI.

Methodological issues in current practice may lead to bias in the development of biomarker combinations for predicting acute kidney injury

Individual biomarkers of renal injury are only modestly predictive of acute kidney injury (AKI). Using multiple biomarkers has the potential to improve predictive capacity. In this systematic review, statistical methods of articles developing biomarker combinations to predict acute kidney injury were assessed. We identified and described three potential sources of bias (resubstitution bias, model selection bias and bias due to center differences) that may compromise the development of biomarker combinations. Fifteen studies reported developing kidney injury biomarker combinations for the prediction of AKI after cardiac surgery (8 articles), in the intensive care unit (4 articles) or other settings (3 articles). All studies were susceptible to at least one source of bias and did not account for or acknowledge the bias. Inadequate reporting often hindered our assessment of the articles. We then evaluated, when possible (7 articles), the performance of published biomarker combinations in the TRIBE-AKI cardiac surgery cohort. Predictive performance was markedly attenuated in six out of seven cases. Thus, deficiencies in analysis and reporting are avoidable and care should be taken to provide accurate estimates of risk prediction model performance. Hence, rigorous design, analysis and reporting of biomarker combination studies are essential to realizing the promise of biomarkers in clinical practice.

Prediction of the renal replacement therapy requirement in mechanically ventilated critically ill patients by combining biomarkers for glomerular filtration and tubular damage

PURPOSE

Mechanically ventilated critically ill patients with high severity score indices need a very cautious therapeutic approach. Considering that inappropriate decisions on renal replacement therapy (RRT) initiation may promote unwanted adverse effects, we evaluated whether a panel of novel and traditional renal markers is superior to conventional renal marker in predicting RRT requirements in this group of patients.

METHODS

This was a prospective observational study, performed at the two distinct multidisciplinary intensive care units (ICUs) of a 1000-bed tertiary hospital. Of 310 consecutive patients, 106 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria of the study. Urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL), serum creatinine (sCr) and serum cystatin C (sCysC) were determined on ICU admission. The predictive performance of all markers for first RRT was tested and compared based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Time-dependent ROC curves were used to assess the earlier time point where the markers presented their maximum area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

All studied biomarkers and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II score, were significant independent predictors of RRT (uNGAL-AUC=0.73, sCysC-AUC=0.76, sCr-AUC=0.78, APACHE-AUC=0.73, P<0.0001). sCysC and sCr showed early maximum predictive ability within 10 days of ICU admission, while uNGAL and APACHE II score within 11 days of ICU admission. sCr combined with normalized (n)NGAL and sCysC combined with either nNGAL or uNGAL established best predictors for the RRT initiation (AUC-ROC=0.8). Distinguishing patients without acute kidney injury (AKI) on ICU entry, the combination of sCysC and APACHE II score proved best (AUC-ROC=0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

Specific markers of kidney dysfunction and of kidney damage can be successfully combined to increase the prognostic capability for RRT initiation. The presence of AKI affects diagnostic performance. Without an established AKI on ICU admission, future RRT requirement was better predicted by the combination of illness severity with a marker of glomerular filtration rate. With AKI on ICU admission a combination of the marker of glomerular filtration rate with one of tubular injury proved best.

The nature and discriminatory value of urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin in critically ill patients at risk of acute kidney injury

BACKGROUND

Different molecular forms of urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) have recently been discovered. We aimed to explore the nature, source and discriminatory value of urinary NGAL in intensive care unit (ICU) patients.

METHODS

We simultaneously measured plasma NGAL (pNGAL), urinary NGAL (uNGAL), and estimated monomeric and homodimeric uNGAL contribution using Western blotting-validated enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays [uNGAL(E1) and uNGAL(E2)] and their calculated ratio in 102 patients with the systemic inflammatory response syndrome and oliguria, and/or a creatinine rise of >25 μmol/L.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Bland-Altman analysis demonstrated that, despite correlating well (r = 0.988), uNGAL and uNGAL(E1) were clinically distinct, lacking both accuracy and precision (bias: 266.23; 95% CI 82.03-450.44 ng/mg creatinine; limits of agreement: -1,573.86 to 2,106.32 ng/mg creatinine). At best, urinary forms of NGAL are fair (area under the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC] ≤0.799) predictors of renal or patient outcome; most perform significantly worse. The 44 patients with a primarily monomeric source of uNGAL had higher pNGAL (118.5 ng/ml vs. 72.5 ng/ml; p < 0.001), remaining significant following Bonferroni correction.

CONCLUSIONS

uNGAL is not a useful predictor of outcome in this ICU population. uNGAL patterns may predict distinct clinical phenotypes. The nature and source of uNGAL are complex and challenge the utility of NGAL as a uniform biomarker.

The clinical utility of plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin in acute kidney injury

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) is derived from the distal tubule and is both reabsorbed and filtered and also shed into the urine after tubular injury. Plasma NGAL is unique amongst the candidate biomarkers of acute kidney injury (AKI) since elevated concentrations may reflect either a change in renal glomerular function or in structural tubular injury or both. In this study, we compared the performance of plasma NGAL in the diagnosis of functional changes and in the diagnosis of structural injury.

METHODS

Plasma and urine samples from 528 patients were collected on entry to an intensive care unit (ICU) as well as 12 and 24 h later. Plasma NGAL diagnostic performance was independently assessed for Functional-AKI and Structural-AKI. Functional-AKI was defined by changes in plasma creatinine, whereas Structural-AKI was defined by elevations in urinary NGAL.

RESULTS

On ICU entry, the area under the curve (AUC) for the diagnosis of Functional-AKI was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.69-0.79), and for Structural-AKI it was 0.79 (0.74-0.83). Plasma NGAL also predicted the need for dialysis (0.79; 0.66-0.81), but not for death. A principal component analysis demonstrated that the maximum plasma NGAL in 24 h reflected structural injury marginally more than functional changes. Plasma NGAL added value to an AKI diagnostic model comprising plasma creatinine, sepsis, age, and APACHE II score (integrated discrimination improvement: 0.073; 0.034-0.12).

CONCLUSION

Increased plasma NGAL reflects both decreased filtration and structural injury. For patients at a low calculated risk, the addition of NGAL reduced the risk, and for those at a higher risk, NGAL correctly assigned patients to even a higher risk.

Novel biomarkers of acute kidney injury in the general adult ICU: a review

Acute kidney injury is one of the most frequent problems occurring in the critically ill patients of the intensive care units and it is well established that it increases both morbidity and mortality in these patients. Moreover, despite technological and pharmaceutical advances during the last decades, the incidence as well as the mortality associated with acute kidney injury in these patients remains unchanged. Creatinine, the most common renal dysfunction biomarker in use, has many disadvantages, such as time delay in its increase and the influence by other factors on its serum concentration, such as age, gender, muscle mass, etc. Hence, the need for better renal biomarkers in order to timely intervene for acute kidney injury prevention is imperative. The lack of an early biomarker is an obstacle for the development of new acute kidney injury prevention strategies. With the incidence of acute kidney injury reaching epidemic dimensions, the need for novel markers is urgent. During the last years, the research for finding such biomarkers has been intense. The purpose of the present article is to review the studies which have tested the predictive ability of those markers (in urine and/or plasma) for early detection of acute kidney injury in the mixed adult intensive care unit population and underline the potential limitations encountered in the various studies.