Six-year course and prognosis of traumatic knee symptoms in general practice: Cohort study

Prognostic factors associated with changes in knee pain outcomes, identified from initial primary care consultation data. A systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Data collected during initial primary care consultations could be a source of baseline prognostic factors associated with changes in outcome measures for patients with knee pain.

OBJECTIVES

To identify, appraise and synthesize studies investigating prognostic factors associated with changes in outcome for people presenting with knee pain in primary care.

METHODS

EMBASE, CINAHL, AMED, MEDLINE and MedRxiv electronic databases were searched from inception to March 2021 and repeated in August 2022. Prospective cohort studies of adult participants with musculoskeletal knee pain assessing the association between putative prognostic factors and outcomes in primary care were included. The Quality in Prognostic Studies (QUIPS) tool and The Modified Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework, specific to prognostic reviews were used to appraise and synthesize the evidence respectively.

RESULTS

Eight studies were included. Eight knee pain outcomes were identified. Methodological and statistical heterogeneity resulted in qualitative analysis. All evidence was judged to be of low to very low quality. Bilateral knee pain (multivariable odds ratio (OR) range 2.60-2.74; 95%CI range 0.90-8.10, p value = 0.09) and a lower educational level (multivariable (OR) range 1.74-5.6; 95%CI range 1.16-16.20, p value = <0.001) were synonymously associated with persisting knee pain at 12-month follow up. A total of 37 univariable and 63 multivariable prognostic factors were statistically associated with outcomes (p ≤ 0.05) in single studies.

CONCLUSIONS

There was consensus from two independent studies that bilateral knee pain and lower educational level were associated with persistent knee pain. Many baseline factors were associated with outcome in individual studies but not consistently between studies. The current understanding, accuracy and reliability of the prognostic value of initial primary care consultation data for knee pain outcomes are limited. This review will provide an essential guide for candidate variable selection in future primary care prognostic confirmatory studies.Key messagesBilateral knee pain and lower educational level were associated with persistent knee pain.Many baseline factors were associated with outcome in individual studies but not consistently between studies.The current understanding, accuracy and reliability of the prognostic value of initial primary care consultation data for knee pain outcomes are limited.

Identifying participants with knee osteoarthritis likely to benefit from physical therapy education and exercise: A hypothesis-generating study

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this investigation was to undertake a hypothesis-generating study to identify candidate variables that characterize people with knee osteoarthritis who are most likely to experience a positive response to exercise.

METHODS

One hundred and fifty participants with knee osteoarthritis participated in this observational, longitudinal study. All participants received a standard exercise intervention that consisted of 20-min sessions two to three times a week for three months. The classification and regression tree methodology (CART) was used to develop prediction of positive clinical outcome. Positive pain and disability outcomes (dependent variables) were defined as an improvement in pain intensity by >50% or an improvement of five or more on the Oxford knee score, respectively. The predictor variables considered included age, sex, body mass index, knee osteoarthritis severity (Kellgren/Lawrence grade), pain duration, use of medication, range of knee motion, pain catastrophizing, self-efficacy and knee self-perception.

RESULTS

Fifty-five participants (36.6%) were classified as responders for pain intensity and 36.6% were classified as responders for disability. The CART model identified impairments in knee self-perception and knee osteoarthritis severity as the discriminators for pain intensity reduction following exercise. No variables predicted reduction of disability level following exercise.

CONCLUSIONS

Such findings suggest that both body perception and osteoarthritis severity may play a role in treatment outcome with exercise. It also raises the possibility that those with higher levels of disrupted body perception may need additional treatment targeted at restoring body perception prior to undertaking exercise.

SIGNIFICANCE

Regardless age, sex, body mass index, pain duration, use of medication, knee range of motion, pain catastrophizing and self-efficacy, participants with knee osteoarthritis who report low levels of body perception disruption (a FreKAQ score ≦ 17) and minimal structural changes (KL grade I) demonstrate significantly better outcomes from exercise therapy than other participants.