Prediction of acetaminophen concentrations in overdose patients using a Bayesian pharmacokinetic model

Bayesian Forecasting Tool to Predict the Need for Antidote in Acute Acetaminophen Overdose

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Acetaminophen (APAP) overdose is the leading cause of acute liver injury in the United States. Patients with elevated plasma acetaminophen concentrations (PACs) require hepatoprotective treatment with N-acetylcysteine (NAC). These patients have been primarily risk-stratified using the Rumack-Matthew nomogram. Previous studies of acute APAP overdoses found that the nomogram failed to accurately predict the need for the antidote. The objectives of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model for APAP following acute overdose and evaluate the utility of population PK model-based Bayesian forecasting in NAC administration decisions.

DESIGN, PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS

Limited APAP concentrations from a retrospective cohort of acute overdosed subjects from the Maryland Poison Center were used to develop the population PK model and to investigate the effect of type of APAP products and other prognostic factors. The externally validated population PK model was used a prior for Bayesian forecasting to predict the individual PK profile when one or two observed PACs were available. The utility of Bayesian forecasted APAP concentration-time profiles inferred from one (first) or two (first and second) PAC observations were also tested in their ability to predict the observed NAC decisions.

MAIN RESULTS

A one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination adequately described the data with single activated charcoal and APAP products as significant covariates on absorption and bioavailability. The Bayesian forecasted individual concentration-time profiles had acceptable bias (6.2% and 9.8%) and accuracy (40.5% and 41.9%) when either one or two PACs were considered, respectively. The sensitivity and negative predictive value of the Bayesian forecasted NAC decisions using one PAC were 84% and 92.6%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The population PK analysis provided a platform for acceptably predicting an individual's concentration-time profile following acute APAP overdose with at least one PAC, and the individual's covariate profile, and can potentially be used for making early NAC administration decisions.

Four-hour acetaminophen concentration estimation after ingested dose based on pharmacokinetic models

INTRODUCTION

The United Kingdom has recently changed the indications for N-acetylcysteine treatment for acetaminophen intoxication. Any ingestion over 75 mg/kg is now referred to the hospital. A model based on pharmacokinetic parameters was developed to predict 4-h acetaminophen concentration for this and other ingested doses.

METHODOLOGY

EMBASE and Medline were searched to obtain values for volume of distribution, absorption, and elimination constants and bioavailability for acetaminophen. Four-hour concentrations were calculated for ingestion doses currently recommended for hospital referral in different countries. Calculated plasma concentrations at 4 h for several doses were plotted against the Rumack-Matthew and the United Kingdom treatment lines.

RESULTS

Six articles were used for the calculations (4 adult and 2 pediatric). In order to achieve a 4-h acetaminophen concentration of 100 mg/L, doses (mg/kg ± 99.9CI) of 180.5 ± 43.2 for adults and 396.1 ± 115.5 for children were calculated.

DISCUSSION

A dose of 75 mg/kg would likely yield a 4-h acetaminophen concentrations well below 100 mg/L. Medical toxicologists and poison information specialists are left without evidence-based guidance for which patients or which ingestion history would now warrant referral to hospital for acetaminophen concentration measurement. Larger toxicokinetic studies in acetaminophen overdose are needed to define ingestion dose for referral to hospital.