Chen K, Kornas K, Rosella LC. Modeling chronic disease risk across equity factors using a population-based prediction model: the Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT).
J Epidemiol Community Health 2024;
78:335-340. [PMID:
38383145 PMCID:
PMC11041567 DOI:
10.1136/jech-2023-221080]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2023] [Accepted: 02/08/2024] [Indexed: 02/23/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND
Predicting chronic disease incidence at a population level can help inform overall future chronic disease burden and opportunities for prevention. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of chronic disease in Ontario, Canada, using a population-level risk prediction algorithm and model interventions for equity-deserving groups who experience barriers to services and resources due to disadvantages and discrimination.
METHODS
The validated Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT) estimates the 10-year risk and incidence of major chronic diseases. CDPoRT was applied to data from the 2017/2018 Canadian Community Health Survey to predict baseline 10-year chronic disease estimates to 2027/2028 in the adult population of Ontario, Canada, and among equity-deserving groups. CDPoRT was used to model prevention scenarios of 2% and 5% risk reductions over 10 years targeting high-risk equity-deserving groups.
RESULTS
Baseline chronic disease risk was highest among those with less than secondary school education (37.5%), severe food insecurity (19.5%), low income (21.2%) and extreme workplace stress (15.0%). CDPoRT predicted 1.42 million new chronic disease cases in Ontario from 2017/2018 to 2027/2028. Reducing chronic disease risk by 5% prevented 1500 cases among those with less than secondary school education, prevented 14 900 cases among those with low household income and prevented 2800 cases among food-insecure populations. Large reductions of 57 100 cases were found by applying a 5% risk reduction in individuals with quite a bit workplace stress.
CONCLUSION
Considerable reduction in chronic disease cases was predicted across equity-defined scenarios, suggesting the need for prevention strategies that consider upstream determinants affecting chronic disease risk.
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