Predictive value of E-PASS and POSSUM systems for postoperative risk assessment of spinal surgery

The Evolution of Risk Assessment in Spine Surgery: A Narrative Review

BACKGROUND

Risk assessment is critically important in elective and high-risk interventions, particularly spine surgery. This narrative review describes the evolution of risk assessment from the earliest instruments focused on general surgical risk stratification, to more accurate and spine-specific risk calculators that quantified risk, to the current era of big data.

METHODS

The PubMed and SCOPUS databases were queried on October 11, 2023 using search terms to identify risk assessment tools (RATs) in spine surgery. A total of 108 manuscripts were included after screening with full-text review using the following inclusion criteria: 1) study population of adult spine surgical patients, 2) studies describing validation and subsequent performance of preoperative RATs, and 3) studies published in English.

RESULTS

Early RATs provided stratified patients into broad categories and allowed for improved communication between physicians. Subsequent risk calculators attempted to quantify risk by estimating general outcomes such as mortality, but then evolved to estimate spine-specific surgical complications. The integration of novel concepts such as invasiveness, frailty, genetic biomarkers, and sarcopenia led to the development of more sophisticated predictive models that estimate the risk of spine-specific complications and long-term outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

RATs have undergone a transformative shift from generalized risk stratification to quantitative predictive models. The next generation of tools will likely involve integration of radiographic and genetic biomarkers, machine learning, and artificial intelligence to improve the accuracy of these models and better inform patients, surgeons, and payers.

Enhanced Recovery After Surgery Protocol for Oblique Lumbar Interbody Fusion

BACKGROUND

Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) attempts to decrease the surgical stress response to minimize postoperative complications and improve functional rehabilitation after major surgery, but it has not been widely utilized in spinal surgery. The study reported the development and implementation of an ERAS pathway for patients with lumbar spondylolisthesis undergoing oblique lumbar interbody fusion (OLIF).

METHODS

Seventy-six patients underwent OLIF surgery from January 2018 to December 2019 were enrolled. Thirty-seven patients were included in pre-ERAS group and 39 patients were included in ERAS group. Major outcomes that were collected included demographics, comorbidities, blood loss, operative time, length of hospital stay (LOS), cost, time to walk, blood transfusion, complications, Visual analogue scale (VAS) scores, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) and factors affecting LOS were also recorded. The ERAS pathway and compliance with pathway elements were also recorded.

RESULTS

After ERAS implementation, the blood loss, LOS, the financial costs, and the time to walk were significantly lower in the ERAS group compared to the pre-ERAS group (all P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in operative time, complications, and blood transfusion between both groups. VAS and ODI between the two groups showed a significant difference during postoperative 3 days and postoperative 1 month (both P < 0.05). The preoperative time to walk was significant factors for hospital stay at the final follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Institution of an ERAS protocol for OLIF surgery appears to accelerate functional recovery, reduce length of stay and financial costs.

Comprehensive risk score of the E-PASS as a prognostic indicator for patients after elective and emergency curative colorectal cancer surgery: A multicenter retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prognostic value of the comprehensive risk score (CRS) of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress for managing patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) who underwent elective and emergency colorectal cancer surgery with curative intent.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

CRS, which is calculated based on both clinical and surgical factors, is a good predictor of postoperative complications and mortality. However, the impact of CRS in CRC prognosis remains unclear.

METHODS

Patients with CRC who underwent curative resection between 2010 and 2019 were retrospectively enrolled in this study. The cohort was divided into the low and high CRS groups. The prognostic value of CRS was evaluated via Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. The CRS cutoff value was obtained using the Youden index applied to OS curves and have not been validated by any validation cohorts.

RESULTS

In total, 2407 patients, including 1359 and 1048 patients with low and high CRS, respectively, were enrolled in this study. Multivariate analysis revealed that a CRS was an independent prognostic factor of overall and recurrence-free survival regardless of disease stage. Furthermore, adjuvant chemotherapy was beneficial for the survival of patients with stage III CRC in both high and low CRS groups; however, the survival benefit was limited in elderly high CRS patients.

CONCLUSIONS

CRS was a strong prognostic factor for CRC regardless of disease stage and might be considered as a biomarker for selecting elderly patients who are eligible for adjuvant chemotherapy.

A simplified scoring system for the prediction of pancreatoduodenectomy's complications: An observational study

To assess the efficiency of several previous scoring systems in the prediction of postoperative complications of pancreatoduodenectomy (PCPD) and to explore a new simplified scoring system for PCPD prediction.All 183 consecutive patients scheduled for PD from 2010 to 2017 in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University were collected retrospectively. The area under the curve (AUC) for the prediction of PCPD was calculated for POSSUM, E-PASS, APACHE-II, and APACHE-III, which were used to test the efficiency of PCPD prediction. The independent risk factors included in the new scoring system were determined by univariate analysis and a logistic regression model. Next, the prediction efficiency was validated.The results of the univariate analysis showed that such variables as male sex, weight, WBC, serum sodium, arterial pH, postoperative 24 hours urine output, and operation time were influence factors for postoperative complications (P <.05). Arterial pH, serum sodium, postoperative 24 hours urine output, and WBC were independent risk factors of postoperative complications based on the logistic regression analysis (P <.05). The AUC of the novel scoring system for PCPD prediction was 85.4%.The proposed scoring system might be a more effective tool for predicting PCPD compared with previous multipurpose scoring systems.

How to better identify patients at high risk of postoperative complications?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Preoperative risk assessment and perioperative factors may help identify patients at increased risk of postoperative complications and allow postoperative management strategies that improve patient outcomes. This review summarizes historical and more recent scoring systems for predicting patients with increased morbidity and mortality in the postoperative period.

RECENT FINDINGS

Most prediction scores predict postoperative mortality with, at best, moderate accuracy. Scores that incorporate surgery-specific and intraoperative covariates may improve the accuracy of traditional scores. Traditional risk factors including increased ASA physical status score, emergent surgery, intraoperative blood loss and hemodynamic instability are consistently associated with increased mortality using most scoring systems.

SUMMARY

Preoperative clinical risk indices and risk calculators estimate surgical risk with moderate accuracy. Surgery-specific risk calculators are helpful in identifying patients at increased risk of 30-day mortality. Particular attention should be paid to intraoperative hemodynamic instability, blood loss, extent of surgical excision and volume of resection.

Feasibility of a Modified E-PASS and POSSUM System for Postoperative Risk Assessment in Patients with Spinal Disease

OBJECTIVE

This retrospective case control study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of using Estimation of Physiological Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) and Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) systems in patients undergoing spinal surgical procedures. Degenerative spine disease has increased in incidence in aging societies, as has the number of older adult patients undergoing spinal surgery. Many older adults are at a high surgical risk because of comorbidity and poor general health.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 217 patients who had undergone spinal surgery at a single tertiary care. We investigated complications within 1 month after surgery. Criteria for both skin incision in E-PASS and operation magnitude in the POSSUM system were modified to fit spine surgery. We calculated the E-PASS and POSSUM scores for enrolled patients, and investigated the relationship between postoperative complications and both surgical risk scoring systems. To reinforce the predictive ability of the E-PASS system, we adjusted equations and developed modified E-PASS systems.

RESULTS

The overall complication rate for spinal surgery was 22.6%. Forty-nine patients experienced 58 postoperative complications. Nineteen major complications, including hematoma, deep infection, pleural effusion, progression of weakness, pulmonary edema, esophageal injury, myocardial infarction, pneumonia, reoperation, renal failure, sepsis, and death, occurred in 17 patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicted postoperative complications after spine surgery was 0.588 for E-PASS and 0.721 for POSSUM. For predicted major postoperative complications, the AUC increased to 0.619 for E-PASS and 0.842 for POSSUM. The AUC of the E-PASS system increased from 0.588 to 0.694 with the Modified E-PASS equation.

CONCLUSIONS

The POSSUM system may be more useful than the E-PASS system for estimating postoperative surgical risk in patients undergoing spine surgery. The preoperative risk scores of E-PASS and POSSUM can be useful for predicting postoperative major complications. To enhance the predictability of the scoring systems, using of modified equations based on spine surgery-specific factors may help ensure surgical outcomes and patient safety.

Risk assessment and decision-making for patients undergoing orthopedic surgery

PURPOSE

Physical and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) scoring system was designed to predict the postoperative morbidity and mortality mainly in general surgery. The purpose of this study was to assess the value of POSSUM scoring system in predicting outcomes of patients undergoing orthopedic surgery, and to do some modifications to make the system more accurate in predicting postoperative complication rates.

METHODS

This is a retrospective clinical study involving 779 patients between April 1, 2009 and September 1, 2010. The postoperative complication rates were predicted by POSSUM, and then compared with the actual morbidity. Logistic regression was taken to improve the POSSUM equation.

RESULTS

In the 779 cases, the predicted morbidity was 27.2% (212 cases) by POSSUM, while the actual morbidity is 8.3% (65 cases).

CONCLUSION

POSSUM excessively predicted the morbidity of patients undergoing orthopedic surgery, and it could be more accurate with appropriate modification. Of all risk factors, echocardiography ejection fraction showed a close relationship with postoperative complications.

Current UK practice of pre-operative risk assessment prior to neurosurgery

BACKGROUND

Intra-cranial and spinal surgery is associated with significant morbidity (23.6% and 11.2%) (5) . Fully informed consent, shared decision-making and optimal peri-operative care are essential to ensure excellent surgical outcome. There is evidence to support the use of formal pre-operative risk assessment to facilitate this in non-cardiac surgery but little is published on best practice for neurosurgery. Our aim was to establish current practice in pre-operative risk assessment at UK Neurosciences centres.

METHODS

A national peer-reviewed electronic structured survey on current practice of pre-operative risk assessment was conducted through the Neuroanaesthesia Society of Great Britain and Ireland or NASGBI in 2014.

RESULTS

We received a response from every UK neurosciences centre. 85% of neurosurgical units offer pre-operative assessment or PAC for elective admissions with 32% of respondents performing formal risk assessment. The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) and its Portsmouth (P-POSSUM) modification were used most frequently. Although formal multi-disciplinary team discussions were conducted rarely following risk assessment, the results guided post-operative care and were used for consent.

CONCLUSIONS

Our survey is the first of its kind in the UK for neurosciences. As expected, formal risk assessment and multi-disciplinary team discussion is not routine. Neurosurgery has a high risk of morbidity and mortality, and pre-operative risk assessment should therefore be considered in line with national recommendations. Further work is required to establish best practice in neurosurgery to ensure that patients are appropriately consented, and to improve standards of care and support surgical outcome data.