Neurological event prediction for patients with symptomatic cerebral cavernous malformation: the BLED2 score

Predictors of future haemorrhage from cerebral cavernous malformations: a retrospective cohort study

Cerebral cavernous malformations (CCMs) are commonly diagnosed, with a low reported rate of haemorrhage on long-term follow-up. The identification of factors predictive of future haemorrhage risk would assist in guiding the management of patients with CCM. The aim of this study was to identify variables associated with haemorrhage, and calculate haemorrhage risk in CCM. We conducted a retrospective study of patients diagnosed with a CCM, managed at a specialist tertiary neuroscience centre (2007-2019). The primary outcome was symptomatic haemorrhage, and secondary outcomes were variables associated with increased risk of haemorrhage, using multivariable Cox regression analysis. Included were 545 patients, with 734 confirmed cavernomas. Median age at diagnosis was 47 (interquartile range [IQR] 35-60), with a median follow-up duration after diagnosis of 46 months (IQR 19-85). Of the patients, 15.0% had multiple lesions (N = 82/545). Symptomatic presentation was observed in 52.5% of patients (N = 286/545). The annual haemorrhage rate was 1.00% per lesion-year (25 events in 2512 lesion-years), and higher in those with symptoms at presentation (1.50% per lesion-year, 22 events vs 0.29%, 3 events, P < 0.001). The variables associated with symptomatic haemorrhage were increased size (hazard ratio [HR] 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.07, P = 0.004), eloquent location (HR 2.63, 95% CI 1.12-6.16, P = 0.026), and symptomatic haemorrhage at presentation (HR 5.37, 95% CI 2.40-11.99, P < 0.001). This study demonstrated that CCMs have a low haemorrhage rate. Increased size, eloquent location, and haemorrhage at presentation appear to be predictive of a higher risk of haemorrhage, and could be used to stratify management protocols.

Nomogram for predicting an individual prospective hemorrhage risk in untreated brainstem cavernous malformations

OBJECTIVE

In this study, the authors aimed to create a nomogram for precisely predicting the 5-year prospective hemorrhage risk in brainstem cavernous malformations (BSCMs).

METHODS

Patients with confirmed BSCMs in a single-center prospective observational series from January 2012 to December 2016 were included in the present study for nomogram building and validation. The concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy, discriminative ability, and clinical usefulness of the nomogram. Then, a nomogram-based risk stratification model for untreated BSCMs was developed.

RESULTS

In total, 600 patients were included in the study; 417 patients who had been enrolled before July 2015 were divided into the training and validation cohorts, and 183 subsequently enrolled patients were used as the external validation cohort. By applying a backward stepwise procedure in the multivariable Cox model, variables, including prior hemorrhage (HR 1.69), hemorrhage on admission (HR 3.33), lesion size > 1.5 cm (HR 1.84), lesion depth (HR 2.35), crossing the axial midpoint (HR 1.94), and developmental venous anomaly (HR 2.62), were incorporated to develop a nomogram. The Harrell C-index values for a 5-year prospective hemorrhage were 0.752 (95% CI 0.687–0.816), 0.801 (95% CI 0.665–0.936), and 0.758 (95% CI 0.674–0.842) in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. The nomogram performed well in terms of consistency between prediction and actual observation according to the calibration curve. The patients could be classified into three distinct (low, medium, and high) risk groups using the final score of this nomogram.

CONCLUSIONS

Independent predictors of the 5-year hemorrhage risk in untreated BSCMs were selected to create the first nomogram for predicting individual prospective hemorrhage. The nomogram was able to stratify patients into different risk groups and assist in clinical decision-making.

Earlier Age at Surgery for Brain Cavernous Angioma-Related Epilepsy May Achieve Complete Seizure Freedom without Aid of Anti-Seizure Medication

Background: The present study hypothesized that some factors may distinguish between patients with a brain cavernous angioma (BCA), who were free from anti-seizure medication (ASM), and patients who still required ASMs postoperatively. The purpose of the study was thus to identify factors associated with ceasing ASMs for patients with drug-resistant epilepsy secondary to BCA, who underwent BCA removal surgery. Methods: We divided patients into those with drug-resistant epilepsy secondary to BCA who achieved complete seizure freedom without ASMs a year after surgery (No-ASM group) (International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) classification class I with no epileptiform discharges), and others (ASM group) (ILAE classification ≤ II and/or epileptiform discharges). We statistically compared groups in terms of: (1) age at operation; (2) history of epilepsy; (3) size of BCA; and (4) location of BCA. Results: Overall, a year after the surgery, the No-ASM group comprised 12 patients (48%), and the ASM group comprised 13 patients (52%). In both multi- and univariate logistic regression analyses, age at BCA removal surgery correlated significantly with the No-ASM group (p = 0.043, p = 0.019), but history of epilepsy did not (p = 0.581, p = 0.585). Conclusions: Earlier age at surgery for patients with drug-resistant epilepsy is encouraged to achieve complete seizure freedom without the need for ASMs when the cause of epilepsy is BCA.