MRI Signal Intensity and Electron Ultrastructure Classification Predict the Long-Term Outcome of Skull Base Chordomas

Predicting overall survival in chordoma patients using machine learning models: a web-app application

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of machine learning (ML) techniques in predicting survival for chordoma patients in comparison with the standard Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) model.

METHODS

Using a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database of consecutive newly diagnosed chordoma cases between January 2000 and December 2018, we created and validated three ML survival models as well as a traditional CoxPH model in this population-based cohort study. Randomly, the dataset was divided into training and validation datasets. Tuning hyperparameters on the training dataset involved a 1000-iteration random search with fivefold cross-validation. Concordance index (C-index), Brier score, and integrated Brier score were used to evaluate the performance of the model. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and area under the ROC curves (AUC) were used to assess the reliability of the models by predicting 5- and 10-year survival probabilities.

RESULTS

A total of 724 chordoma patients were divided into training (n = 508) and validation (n = 216) cohorts. Cox regression identified nine significant prognostic factors (p < 0.05). ML models showed superior performance over CoxPH model, with DeepSurv having the highest C-index (0.795) and the best discrimination for 5- and 10-year survival (AUC 0.84 and 0.88). Calibration curves revealed strong correlation between DeepSurv predictions and actual survival. Risk stratification by DeepSurv model effectively discriminated high- and low-risk groups (p < 0.01). The optimized DeepSurv model was implemented into a web application for clinical use that can be found at https://hust-chengp-ml-chordoma-app-19rjyr.streamlitapp.com/ .

CONCLUSION

ML algorithms based on time-to-event results are effective in chordoma prediction, with DeepSurv having the best discrimination performance and calibration.

Differentiation Between Primary Central Nervous System Lymphoma and Atypical Glioblastoma Based on MRI Morphological Feature and Signal Intensity Ratio: A Retrospective Multicenter Study

Objectives

To investigate the value of morphological feature and signal intensity ratio (SIR) derived from conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in distinguishing primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL) from atypical glioblastoma (aGBM).

Methods

Pathology-confirmed PCNSLs (n = 93) or aGBMs (n = 48) from three institutions were retrospectively enrolled and divided into training cohort (n = 98) and test cohort (n = 43). Morphological features and SIRs were compared between PCNSL and aGBM. Using linear discriminant analysis, multiple models were constructed with SIRs and morphological features alone or jointly, and the diagnostic performances were evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Areas under the curves (AUCs) and accuracies (ACCs) of the models were compared with the radiologists’ assessment.

Results

Incision sign, T₂ pseudonecrosis sign, reef sign and peritumoral leukomalacia sign were associated with PCNSL (training and overall cohorts, P < 0.05). Increased T₁ ratio, decreased T₂ ratio and T₂/T₁ ratio were predictive of PCNSL (all P < 0.05). ROC analysis showed that combination of morphological features and SIRs achieved the best diagnostic performance for differentiation of PCNSL and aGBM with AUC/ACC of 0.899/0.929 for the training cohort, AUC/ACC of 0.794/0.837 for the test cohort and AUC/ACC of 0.869/0.901 for the overall cohort, respectively. Based on the overall cohort, two radiologists could distinguish PCNSL from aGBM with AUC/ACC of 0.732/0.724 for radiologist A and AUC/ACC of 0.811/0.829 for radiologist B.

Conclusion

MRI morphological features can help differentiate PCNSL from aGBM. When combined with SIRs, the diagnostic performance was better than that of radiologists’ assessment.

Radiomics and Dosiomics for Predicting Local Control after Carbon-Ion Radiotherapy in Skull-Base Chordoma

Skull-base chordoma (SBC) can be treated with carbon ion radiotherapy (CIRT) to improve local control (LC). The study aimed to explore the role of multi-parametric radiomic, dosiomic and clinical features as prognostic factors for LC in SBC patients undergoing CIRT. Before CIRT, 57 patients underwent MR and CT imaging, from which tumour contours and dose maps were obtained. MRI and CT-based radiomic, and dosiomic features were selected and fed to two survival models, singularly or by combining them with clinical factors. Adverse LC was given by in-field recurrence or tumour progression. The dataset was split in development and test sets and the models' performance evaluated using the concordance index (C-index). Patients were then assigned a low- or high-risk score. Survival curves were estimated, and risk groups compared through log-rank tests (after Bonferroni correction α = 0.0083). The best performing models were built on features describing tumour shape and dosiomic heterogeneity (median/interquartile range validation C-index: 0.80/024 and 0.79/0.26), followed by combined (0.73/0.30 and 0.75/0.27) and CT-based models (0.77/0.24 and 0.64/0.28). Dosiomic and combined models could consistently stratify patients in two significantly different groups. Dosiomic and multi-parametric radiomic features showed to be promising prognostic factors for LC in SBC treated with CIRT.