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Park SW, Messacar K, Douek DC, Spaulding AB, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT. Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US. Epidemics 2024; 46:100736. [PMID: 38118274 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100736] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2023] [Revised: 12/02/2023] [Accepted: 12/10/2023] [Indexed: 12/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Recent outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, and their causal linkage with acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), continue to pose a serious public health concern. During 2020 and 2021, the dynamics of EV-D68 and other pathogens have been significantly perturbed by non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19; this perturbation presents a powerful natural experiment for exploring the dynamics of these endemic infections. In this study, we analyzed publicly available data on EV-D68 infections, originally collected through the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, to predict their short- and long-term dynamics following the COVID-19 interventions. Although long-term predictions are sensitive to our assumptions about underlying dynamics and changes in contact rates during the NPI periods, the likelihood of a large outbreak in 2023 appears to be low. Comprehensive surveillance data are needed to accurately characterize future dynamics of EV-D68. The limited incidence of AFM cases in 2022, despite large EV-D68 outbreaks, poses further questions for the timing of the next AFM outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sang Woo Park
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
| | - Kevin Messacar
- Department of Pediatrics, Section of Infectious Diseases, University of Colorado School of Medicine and Children's Hospital Colorado, Aurora, CO, USA
| | - Daniel C Douek
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Alicen B Spaulding
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - C Jessica E Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Bryan T Grenfell
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
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Krug PW, Wang L, Shi W, Kong WP, Moss DL, Yang ES, Fisher BE, Morabito KM, Mascola JR, Kanekiyo M, Graham BS, Ruckwardt TJ. EV-D68 virus-like particle vaccines elicit cross-clade neutralizing antibodies that inhibit infection and block dissemination. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2023; 9:eadg6076. [PMID: 37196074 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adg6076] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2023] [Accepted: 04/11/2023] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) causes severe respiratory illness in children and can result in a debilitating paralytic disease known as acute flaccid myelitis. No treatment or vaccine for EV-D68 infection is available. Here, we demonstrate that virus-like particle (VLP) vaccines elicit a protective neutralizing antibody against homologous and heterologous EV-D68 subclades. VLP based on a B1 subclade 2014 outbreak strain elicited comparable B1 EV-D68 neutralizing activity as an inactivated viral particle vaccine in mice. Both immunogens elicited weaker cross-neutralization against heterologous viruses. A B3 VLP vaccine elicited more robust neutralization of B3 subclade viruses with improved cross-neutralization. A balanced CD4+ T helper response was achieved using a carbomer-based adjuvant, Adjuplex. Nonhuman primates immunized with this B3 VLP Adjuplex formulation generated robust neutralizing antibodies against homologous and heterologous subclade viruses. Our results suggest that both vaccine strain and adjuvant selection are critical elements for improving the breadth of protective immunity against EV-D68.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter W Krug
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Lingshu Wang
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Wei Shi
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Wing-Pui Kong
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Daniel L Moss
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Eun Sung Yang
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Brian E Fisher
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Kaitlyn M Morabito
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - John R Mascola
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Masaru Kanekiyo
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Barney S Graham
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
| | - Tracy J Ruckwardt
- Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
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