Predictive models for independence after stroke rehabilitation: Maugeri external validation and development of a new model

Predicting the functional outcome of intensive inpatient rehabilitation after stroke: results from the RIPS Study

BACKGROUND

The complexity of stroke sequelae, the heterogeneity of outcome measures and rehabilitation pathways, and the lack of extensively validated prediction models represent a challenge in predicting stroke rehabilitation outcomes.

AIM

To prospectively investigate a multidimensional set of variables collected at admission to inpatient post-stroke rehabilitation as potential predictors of the functional level at discharge.

DESIGN

Multicentric prospective observational study.

SETTING

Patients were enrolled in four Intensive Rehabilitation Units (IRUs).

POPULATION

Patients were consecutively recruited in the period December 2019-December 2020 with the following inclusion criteria: aged 18+, with ischemic/haemorrhagic stroke, and undergoing inpatient rehabilitation within 30 days from stroke.

METHODS

This is a multicentric prospective observational study. The rehabilitation pathway was reproducible and evidence-based. The functional outcome was disability in activities of daily living, measured by the modified Barthel Index (mBI) at discharge. Potential multidimensional predictors, assessed at admission, included demographics, event description, clinical assessment, functional and cognitive profile, and psycho-social domains. The variables statistically associated with the outcome in the univariate analysis were fed into a multivariable model using multiple linear regression.

RESULTS

A total of 220 patients were included (median [IQR] age: 80 [15], 112 women, 175 ischemic). Median mBI was 26 (43) at admission and 62.5 (52) at discharge. In the multivariable analysis younger age, along with better functioning, fewer comorbidities, higher cognitive abilities, reduced stroke severity, and higher motor functions at admission, remained independently associated with higher discharge mBI. The final model allowed a reliable prediction of discharge functional outcome (adjusted R2=77.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

The model presented in this study, based on easily collectable, reliable admission variables, could help clinicians and researchers to predict the discharge scores of the global functional outcome for persons enrolled in an evidence-based inpatient stroke rehabilitation program.

CLINICAL REHABILITATION IMPACT

A reliable outcome prediction derived from standardized assessment measures and validated treatment protocols could guide clinicians in the management of patients in the subacute phase of stroke and help improve the planning of the rehabilitation individualized project.

Machine learning in predicting outcomes for stroke patients following rehabilitation treatment: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

This review aimed to summarize the use of machine learning for predicting the potential benefits of stroke rehabilitation treatments, to evaluate the risk of bias of predictive models, and to provide recommendations for future models.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This systematic review was conducted in accordance with the PRISMA statement and the CHARMS checklist. The PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Scopus, and CNKI databases were searched up to April 08, 2023. The PROBAST tool was used to assess the risk of bias of the included models.

RESULTS

Ten studies within 32 models met our inclusion criteria. The optimal AUC value of the included models ranged from 0.63 to 0.91, and the optimal R2 value ranged from 0.64 to 0.91. All of the included models were rated as having a high or unclear risk of bias, and most of them were downgraded due to inappropriate data sources or analysis processes.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

There remains much room for improvement in future modeling studies, such as high-quality data sources and model analysis. Reliable predictive models should be developed to improve the efficacy of rehabilitation treatment by clinicians.

Regression-based prognostic models for functional independence after postacute brain injury rehabilitation are not transportable: a systematic review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

To identify and summarize validated multivariable prognostic models for the Functional Independence Measure® (FIM®) at discharge from post-acute inpatient rehabilitation in adults with acquired brain injury (ABI).

METHODS

This review was conducted based on the recommendations of the Cochrane Prognosis Methods Group and adheres to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Three databases were systematically searched in May 2021 and updated in April 2022. Main inclusion criteria were: a) adult patients with ABI, b) validated multivariable prognostic model, c) time of prognostication within 1-week of admission to post-acute rehabilitation, and d) outcome was the FIM® at discharge from post-acute rehabilitation.

RESULTS

The search yielded 3,169 unique articles. Three articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria, accounting for n = 6 internally and n = 2 externally validated prognostic models. Discrimination was estimated as an area under the curve between 0.76 and 0.89. Calibration was deemed to be assessed insufficiently. The included models were judged to be of high risk of bias.

CONCLUSION

Current prognostic models for the FIM® in post-acute rehabilitation for patients with ABI lack the methodological rigor to support clinical use outside the development setting. Future studies addressing functional independence should ensure appropriate model validation and conform to uniform reporting standards for prognosis research.