Artificial Neural Network Analysis of Spontaneous Preterm Labor and Birth and Its Major Determinants

Black-white differences in chronic stress exposures to predict preterm birth: interpretable, race/ethnicity-specific machine learning model

BACKGROUND

Differential exposure to chronic stressors by race/ethnicity may help explain Black-White inequalities in rates of preterm birth. However, researchers have not investigated the cumulative, interactive, and population-specific nature of chronic stressor exposures and their possible nonlinear associations with preterm birth. Models capable of computing such high-dimensional associations that could differ by race/ethnicity are needed. We developed machine learning models of chronic stressors to both predict preterm birth more accurately and identify chronic stressors and other risk factors driving preterm birth risk among non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White pregnant women.

METHODS

Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were developed for preterm birth prediction for non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic White, and combined study samples derived from the CDC's Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System data (2012-2017). For each sample population, MARS models were trained and tested using 5-fold cross-validation. For each population, the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) was used to evaluate model performance, and variable importance for preterm birth prediction was computed.

RESULTS

Among 81,892 non-Hispanic Black and 277,963 non-Hispanic White live births (weighted sample), the best-performing MARS models showed high accuracy (AUC: 0.754-0.765) and similar-or-better performance for race/ethnicity-specific models compared to the combined model. The number of prenatal care visits, premature rupture of membrane, and medical conditions were more important than other variables in predicting preterm birth across the populations. Chronic stressors (e.g., low maternal education and intimate partner violence) and their correlates predicted preterm birth only for non-Hispanic Black women.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study findings reinforce that such mid or upstream determinants of health as chronic stressors should be targeted to reduce excess preterm birth risk among non-Hispanic Black women and ultimately narrow the persistent Black-White gap in preterm birth in the U.S.

Exploring the potential of machine learning in gynecological care: a review

Gynecological health remains a critical aspect of women's overall well-being, with profound implications for maternal and reproductive outcomes. This comprehensive review synthesizes the current state of knowledge on four pivotal aspects of gynecological health: preterm birth, breast cancer and cervical cancer and infertility treatment. Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a transformative technology with the potential to revolutionize gynecology and women's healthcare. The subsets of AI, namely, machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) methods, have aided in detecting complex patterns from huge datasets and using such patterns in making predictions. This paper investigates how machine learning (ML) algorithms are employed in the field of gynecology to tackle crucial issues pertaining to women's health. This paper also investigates the integration of ultrasound technology with artificial intelligence (AI) during the initial, intermediate, and final stages of pregnancy. Additionally, it delves into the diverse applications of AI throughout each trimester.This review paper provides an overview of machine learning (ML) models, introduces natural language processing (NLP) concepts, including ChatGPT, and discusses the clinical applications of artificial intelligence (AI) in gynecology. Additionally, the paper outlines the challenges in utilizing machine learning within the field of gynecology.

Intelligent classification of cardiotocography based on a support vector machine and convolutional neural network: Multiscene research

OBJECTIVE

To propose a computerized system utilizing multiscene analysis based on a support vector machine (SVM) and convolutional neural network (CNN) to assess cardiotocography (CTG) intelligently.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected 2542 CTG records of singleton pregnancies delivered at the maternity ward of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University from October 10, 2020, to August 7, 2021. CTG records were divided into five categories (baseline, variability, acceleration, deceleration, and normality). Apart from the category of normality, the other four different categories of abnormal data correspond to four scenes. Each scene was divided into training and testing sets at 9:1 or 7:3. We used three computer algorithms (dynamic threshold, SVM, and CNN) to learn and optimize the system. Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were performed to evaluate performance.

RESULTS

The global accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the system were 93.88%, 93.06%, and 94.33%, respectively. In acceleration and deceleration scenes, when the convolution kernel was 3, the test data set reached the highest performance.

CONCLUSION

The multiscene research model using SVM and CNN is a potential effective tool to assist obstetricians in classifying CTG intelligently.

Node embedding-based graph autoencoder outlier detection for adverse pregnancy outcomes

Adverse pregnancy outcomes, such as low birth weight (LBW) and preterm birth (PTB), can have serious consequences for both the mother and infant. Early prediction of such outcomes is important for their prevention. Previous studies using traditional machine learning (ML) models for predicting PTB and LBW have encountered two important limitations: extreme class imbalance in medical datasets and the inability to account for complex relational structures between entities. To address these limitations, we propose a node embedding-based graph outlier detection algorithm to predict adverse pregnancy outcomes. We developed a knowledge graph using a well-curated representative dataset of the Emirati population and two node embedding algorithms. The graph autoencoder (GAE) was trained by applying a combination of original risk factors and node embedding features. Samples that were difficult to reconstruct at the output of GAE were identified as outliers considered representing PTB and LBW samples. Our experiments using LBW, PTB, and very PTB datasets demonstrated that incorporating node embedding considerably improved performance, achieving a 12% higher AUC-ROC compared to traditional GAE. Our study demonstrates the effectiveness of node embedding and graph outlier detection in improving the prediction performance of adverse pregnancy outcomes in well-curated population datasets.

Interpretable machine learning to predict adverse perinatal outcomes: examining marginal predictive value of risk factors during pregnancy

BACKGROUND

The timely identification of nulliparas at high risk of adverse fetal and neonatal outcomes during pregnancy is crucial for initiating clinical interventions to prevent perinatal complications. Although machine learning methods have been applied to predict preterm birth and other pregnancy complications, many models do not provide explanations of their predictions, limiting the clinical use of the model.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop interpretable prediction models for a composite adverse perinatal outcome (stillbirth, neonatal death, estimated Combined Apgar score of <10, or preterm birth) at different points in time during the pregnancy and to evaluate the marginal predictive value of individual predictors in the context of a machine learning model.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a secondary analysis of the Nulliparous Pregnancy Outcomes Study: Monitoring Mothers-to-be data, a prospective cohort study in which 10,038 nulliparous pregnant individuals with singleton pregnancies were enrolled. Here, interpretable prediction models were developed using L1-regularized logistic regression for adverse perinatal outcomes using data available at 3 study visits during the pregnancy (visit 1: 6 0/7 to 13 6/7 weeks of gestation; visit 2: 16 0/7 to 21 6/7 weeks of gestation; visit 3: 22 0/7 to 29 6/7 weeks of gestation). We identified the important predictors for each model using SHapley Additive exPlanations, a model-agnostic method of computing explanations of model predictions, and evaluated the marginal predictive value of each predictor using the DeLong test.

RESULTS

Our interpretable machine learning model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.617 (95% confidence interval, 0.595-0.639; all predictor variables at visit 1), 0.652 (95% confidence interval, 0.631-0.673; all predictor variables at visit 2), and 0.673 (95% confidence interval, 0.651-0.694; all predictor variables at visit 3). For all visits, the placental biomarker inhibin A was a valuable predictor, as including inhibin A resulted in better performance in predicting adverse perinatal outcomes (P<.001, all visits). At visit 1, endoglin was also a valuable predictor (P<.001). At visit 2, free beta human chorionic gonadotropin (P=.001) and uterine artery pulsatility index (P=.023) were also valuable predictors. At visit 3, cervical length was also a valuable predictor (P<.001).

CONCLUSION

Despite various advances in predictive modeling in obstetrics, the accurate prediction of adverse perinatal outcomes remains difficult. Interpretable machine learning can help clinicians understand how predictions are made, but barriers exist to the widespread clinical adoption of machine learning models for adverse perinatal outcomes. A better understanding of the evolution of risk factors for adverse perinatal outcomes throughout pregnancy is necessary for the development of effective interventions.

A Novel Predictive Machine Learning Model Integrating Cytokines in Cervical-Vaginal Mucus Increases the Prediction Rate for Preterm Birth

Preterm birth (PB) is a leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. PB prediction is performed by measuring cervical length, with a detection rate of around 70%. Although it is known that a cytokine-mediated inflammatory process is involved in the pathophysiology of PB, none screening method implemented in clinical practice includes cytokine levels as a predictor variable. Here, we quantified cytokines in cervical-vaginal mucus of pregnant women (18-23.6 weeks of gestation) with high or low risk for PB determined by cervical length, also collecting relevant obstetric information. IL-2, IL-6, IFN-γ, IL-4, and IL-10 were significantly higher in the high-risk group, while IL-1ra was lower. Two different models for PB prediction were created using the Random Forest machine-learning algorithm: a full model with 12 clinical variables and cytokine values and the adjusted model, including the most relevant variables-maternal age, IL-2, and cervical length- (detection rate 66 vs. 87%, false positive rate 12 vs. 3.33%, false negative rate 28 vs. 6.66%, and area under the curve 0.722 vs. 0.875, respectively). The adjusted model that incorporate cytokines showed a detection rate eight points higher than the gold standard calculator, which may allow us to identify the risk PB risk more accurately and implement strategies for preventive interventions.

Multiomic Investigations into Lung Health and Disease

Diseases of the lung account for more than 5 million deaths worldwide and are a healthcare burden. Improving clinical outcomes, including mortality and quality of life, involves a holistic understanding of the disease, which can be provided by the integration of lung multi-omics data. An enhanced understanding of comprehensive multiomic datasets provides opportunities to leverage those datasets to inform the treatment and prevention of lung diseases by classifying severity, prognostication, and discovery of biomarkers. The main objective of this review is to summarize the use of multiomics investigations in lung disease, including multiomics integration and the use of machine learning computational methods. This review also discusses lung disease models, including animal models, organoids, and single-cell lines, to study multiomics in lung health and disease. We provide examples of lung diseases where multi-omics investigations have provided deeper insight into etiopathogenesis and have resulted in improved preventative and therapeutic interventions.

Association between early preterm birth and maternal exposure to fine particular matter (PM10): A nation-wide population-based cohort study using machine learning

Although preterm birth (PTB), a birth before 34 weeks of gestation accounts for only less than 3% of total births, it is a critical cause of various perinatal morbidity and mortality. Several studies have been conducted on the association between maternal exposure to PM and PTB, but the results were inconsistent. Moreover, no study has analyzed the risk of PM on PTB among women with cardiovascular diseases, even though those were thought to be highly susceptible to PM considering the cardiovascular effect of PM. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the effect of PM10 on early PTB according to the period of exposure, using machine learning with data from Korea National Health Insurance Service (KNHI) claims. Furthermore, we conducted subgroup analysis to compare the risk of PM on early PTB among pregnant women with cardiovascular diseases and those without. A total of 149,643 primiparous singleton women aged 25 to 40 years who delivered babies in 2017 were included. Random forest feature importance and SHAP (Shapley additive explanations) value were used to identify the effect of PM10 on early PTB in comparison with other well-known contributing factors of PTB. AUC and accuracy of PTB prediction model using random forest were 0.9988 and 0.9984, respectively. Maternal exposure to PM10 was one of the major predictors of early PTB. PM10 concentration of 5 to 7 months before delivery, the first and early second trimester of pregnancy, ranked high in feature importance. SHAP value showed that higher PM10 concentrations before 5 to 7 months before delivery were associated with an increased risk of early PTB. The probability of early PTB was increased by 7.73%, 10.58%, or 11.11% if a variable PM10 concentration of 5, 6, or 7 months before delivery was included to the prediction model. Furthermore, women with cardiovascular diseases were more susceptible to PM10 concentration in terms of risk for early PTB than those without cardiovascular diseases. Maternal exposure to PM10 has a strong association with early PTB. In addition, in the context of PTB, pregnant women with cardiovascular diseases are a high-risk group of PM10 and the first and early second trimester is a high-risk period of PM10.

Use of artificial intelligence in obstetrics: not quite ready for prime time

Artificial intelligence is finding several applications in healthcare settings. This study aimed to report evidence on the effectiveness of artificial intelligence application in obstetrics. Through a narrative review of literature, we described artificial intelligence use in different obstetrical areas as follows: prenatal diagnosis, fetal heart monitoring, prediction and management of pregnancy-related complications (preeclampsia, preterm birth, gestational diabetes mellitus, and placenta accreta spectrum), and labor. Artificial intelligence seems to be a promising tool to help clinicians in daily clinical activity. The main advantages that emerged from this review are related to the reduction of inter- and intraoperator variability, time reduction of procedures, and improvement of overall diagnostic performance. However, nowadays, the diffusion of these systems in routine clinical practice raises several issues. Reported evidence is still very limited, and further studies are needed to confirm the clinical applicability of artificial intelligence. Moreover, better training of clinicians designed to use these systems should be ensured, and evidence-based guidelines regarding this topic should be produced to enhance the strengths of artificial systems and minimize their limits.

Machine learning-based risk factor analysis of necrotizing enterocolitis in very low birth weight infants

This study used machine learning and a national prospective cohort registry database to analyze the major risk factors of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants, including environmental factors. The data consisted of 10,353 VLBW infants from the Korean Neonatal Network database from January 2013 to December 2017. The dependent variable was NEC. Seventy-four predictors, including ambient temperature and particulate matter, were included. An artificial neural network, decision tree, logistic regression, naïve Bayes, random forest, and support vector machine were used to evaluate the major predictors of NEC. Among the six prediction models, logistic regression and random forest had the best performance (accuracy: 0.93 and 0.93, area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve: 0.73 and 0.72, respectively). According to random forest variable importance, major predictors of NEC were birth weight, birth weight Z-score, maternal age, gestational age, average birth year temperature, birth year, minimum birth year temperature, maximum birth year temperature, sepsis, and male sex. To the best of our knowledge, the performance of random forest in this study was among the highest in this line of research. NEC is strongly associated with ambient birth year temperature, as well as maternal and neonatal predictors.

Reporting and risk of bias of prediction models based on machine learning methods in preterm birth: A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

There was limited evidence on the quality of reporting and methodological quality of prediction models using machine learning methods in preterm birth. This systematic review aimed to assess the reporting quality and risk of bias of a machine learning-based prediction model in preterm birth.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We conducted a systematic review, searching the PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, China Biology Medicine disk, VIP Database, and WanFang Data from inception to September 27, 2021. Studies that developed (validated) a prediction model using machine learning methods in preterm birth were included. We used the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement and Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) to evaluate the reporting quality and the risk of bias of included studies, respectively. Findings were summarized using descriptive statistics and visual plots. The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (no. CRD 42022301623).

RESULTS

Twenty-nine studies met the inclusion criteria, with 24 development-only studies and 5 development-with-validation studies. Overall, TRIPOD adherence per study ranged from 17% to 79%, with a median adherence of 49%. The reporting of title, abstract, blinding of predictors, sample size justification, explanation of model, and model performance were mostly poor, with TRIPOD adherence ranging from 4% to 17%. For all included studies, 79% had a high overall risk of bias, and 21% had an unclear overall risk of bias. The analysis domain was most commonly rated as high risk of bias in included studies, mainly as a result of small effective sample size, selection of predictors based on univariable analysis, and lack of calibration evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS

Reporting and methodological quality of machine learning-based prediction models in preterm birth were poor. It is urgent to improve the design, conduct, and reporting of such studies to boost the application of machine learning-based prediction models in preterm birth in clinical practice.

Machine learning-based risk factor analysis of adverse birth outcomes in very low birth weight infants

This study aimed to analyze major predictors of adverse birth outcomes in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants including particulate matter concentration (PM₁₀), using machine learning and the national prospective cohort. Data consisted of 10,423 VLBW infants from the Korean Neonatal Network database during January 2013-December 2017. Five adverse birth outcomes were considered as the dependent variables, i.e., gestational age less than 28 weeks, gestational age less than 26 weeks, birth weight less than 1000 g, birth weight less than 750 g and small-for-gestational age. Thirty-three predictors were included and the artificial neural network, the decision tree, the logistic regression, the Naïve Bayes, the random forest and the support vector machine were used for predicting the dependent variables. Among the six prediction models, the random forest had the best performance (accuracy 0.79, area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve 0.72). According to the random forest variable importance, major predictors of adverse birth outcomes were maternal age (0.2131), birth-month (0.0767), PM₁₀ month (0.0656), sex (0.0428), number of fetuses (0.0424), primipara (0.0395), maternal education (0.0352), pregnancy-induced hypertension (0.0347), chorioamnionitis (0.0336) and antenatal steroid (0.0318). In conclusion, adverse birth outcomes had strong associations with PM₁₀ month as well as maternal and fetal factors.

Prediction and prevention of preterm birth in pregnant women living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy

INTRODUCTION

The rate of spontaneous preterm-birth among pregnant women living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is 3- to 4-fold higher when compared to HIV-negative women. The pathophysiology of preterm-birth related to HIV or ART remains unknown, especially as women living with HIV are often excluded from preterm birth studies.

AREAS COVERED

This review discusses the currently available evidence on the prediction and prevention of preterm-birth in pregnant women living with HIV. A review of the literature was conducted of primary articles between 2005 and 2021 measuring the association or lack thereof between combination ART and preterm birth, as well as of other predisposing factors to preterm birth in women living with HIV, including cervical length, vaginal microbiome, and cervico-vaginal biomarkers.

EXPERT OPINION

Further research into the effect of ART exposure on preterm-birth risk is critical, and development of preterm-birth predictive tools in this population should be a priority. Vaginal progesterone supplementation deserves further investigation as a therapeutic option to prevent recurrent preterm birth in pregnant women living with HIV. The ProSPAR study, a multicenter randomized controlled trial studying progesterone supplementation in pregnant women on protease inhibitor-based regimens, has been designed but is not yet recruiting patients.

Prediction of preterm birth using artificial intelligence: a systematic review

Preterm birth is the leading cause of neonatal death. It is challenging to predict preterm birth. We elucidated the state of artificial intelligence research on the prediction of preterm birth, clarifying the predictive values and accuracy. We performed a systematic review using three databases (PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus) in August 2020, with keywords as 'artificial intelligence,' 'deep learning,' 'machine learning,' and 'neural network' combined with 'preterm birth'. We included 22 publications between 2010 and 2020. Regarding the predictive values, electrohysterogram images were mostly used, followed by the biological profiles, the metabolic panel in amniotic fluid or maternal blood, and the cervical images on the ultrasound examination. The size of dataset in most studies was hundred cases and too small for learning, although only three studies used the medical database over a hundred thousand cases. The accuracy was better in the studies using the metabolic panel and electrohysterogram images. Impact statementWhat is already known on this subject? Preterm birth is the leading cause of newborn morbidity and mortality. Presently, the prediction of preterm birth in individual cases is still challenging.What the results of this study add? Using artificial intelligence such as deep learning and machine learning models, clinical data could lead to accurate prediction of preterm birth.What the implications are of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? The size of the datasets was too small for the models using artificial intelligence in the previous studies. Big data should be prepared for the future studies.

Index Evaluation of Different Hospital Management Modes Based on Deep Learning Model

In order to effectively improve the efficiency of hospital public management, we designed a hospital management index system based on deep learning model and analysed the application effect of reverse broadcast neural network model in hospital. The results show that in the performance analysis of the model, compared with other classical algorithms, the constructed model has the highest accuracy and the shortest delay. The weight analysis of each index in the model shows that the weight of rational utilization rate of beds in tertiary public hospitals is the highest, and the weight of rational utilization rate of beds in secondary public hospitals is the highest. The further analysis of the model training effect shows that the actual value of most output indexes is consistent with the predicted value, and the residual error of the predicted value is close to 0.

Artificial intelligence approaches to the determinants of women's vaginal dryness using general hospital data

The aim of this study is to analyse the determinants of women's vaginal dryness using machine learning. Data came from Korea University Anam Hospital in Seoul, Republic of Korea, with 3298 women, aged 40-80 years, who attended their general health check from January 2010 to December 2012. Five machine learning methods were applied and compared for the prediction of vaginal dryness, measured by a Menopause Rating Scale. Random forest variable importance, a performance gap between a complete model and a model excluding a certain variable, was adopted for identifying major determinants of vaginal dryness. In terms of the mean squared error, the random forest (1.0597) was much better than linear regression (17.9043) and artificial neural networks with one, two and three hidden layers (1.7452, 1.7148 and 1.7736, respectively). Based on random forest variable importance, the top-10 determinants of vaginal dryness were menopause age, age, menopause, height, thyroid stimulating hormone, neutrophils, years since menopause, lymphocytes, alkaline phosphatase and blood urea nitrogen. In addition, its top-20 determinants were peak expiratory flow rate, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, white blood cells, monocytes, cancer antigen 19-9, creatinine, eosinophils, total cholesterol, triglyceride and amylase. Machine learning presents a great decision support system for the prediction of vaginal dryness. For preventing vaginal dryness, preventive measures would be needed regarding early menopause, the thyroid function and systematic inflammation.Impact StatementWhat is already known on this subject? Only a few studies have investigated the risk factors of vaginal dryness in middle-aged women. More research is to be done for finding its various risk factors, identifying its major risk groups and drawing its effective clinical implications.What do the results of this study add? This study is the first machine-learning study to predict women's vaginal dryness and analyse their determinants. The random forest could discuss which factors are more important for the prediction of vaginal dryness. Based on random forest variable importance, menopause age was the most important determinant of vaginal dryness and their association was discovered to be negative in this study. Vaginal dryness was closely associated with the height, rather than the body weight or body mass index. The importance rankings of blood conditions related to systematic inflammation were within the top-20 in this study: neutrophils, lymphocytes, white blood cells, monocytes and eosinophils.What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? Machine learning presents a great decision support system for the prediction of vaginal dryness. For preventing vaginal dryness, preventive measures would be needed regarding early menopause and systematic inflammation.

Artificial intelligence in obstetrics

This study reviews recent advances on the application of artificial intelligence for the early diagnosis of various maternal-fetal conditions such as preterm birth and abnormal fetal growth. It is found in this study that various machine learning methods have been successfully employed for different kinds of data capture with regard to early diagnosis of maternal-fetal conditions. With the more popular use of artificial intelligence, ethical issues should also be considered accordingly.

Machine learning modeling for preterm birth prediction using health record: A systematic review (Preprint)

Background

Preterm birth (PTB), a common pregnancy complication, is responsible for 35% of the 3.1 million pregnancy-related deaths each year and significantly affects around 15 million children annually worldwide. Conventional approaches to predict PTB lack reliable predictive power, leaving >50% of cases undetected. Recently, machine learning (ML) models have shown potential as an appropriate complementary approach for PTB prediction using health records (HRs).

Objective

This study aimed to systematically review the literature concerned with PTB prediction using HR data and the ML approach.

Methods

This systematic review was conducted in accordance with the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) statement. A comprehensive search was performed in 7 bibliographic databases until May 15, 2021. The quality of the studies was assessed, and descriptive information, including descriptive characteristics of the data, ML modeling processes, and model performance, was extracted and reported.

Results

A total of 732 papers were screened through title and abstract. Of these 732 studies, 23 (3.1%) were screened by full text, resulting in 13 (1.8%) papers that met the inclusion criteria. The sample size varied from a minimum value of 274 to a maximum of 1,400,000. The time length for which data were extracted varied from 1 to 11 years, and the oldest and newest data were related to 1988 and 2018, respectively. Population, data set, and ML models’ characteristics were assessed, and the performance of the model was often reported based on metrics such as accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

Conclusions

Various ML models used for different HR data indicated potential for PTB prediction. However, evaluation metrics, software and package used, data size and type, selected features, and importantly data management method often remain unjustified, threatening the reliability, performance, and internal or external validity of the model. To understand the usefulness of ML in covering the existing gap, future studies are also suggested to compare it with a conventional method on the same data set.

Usefulness of artificial intelligence for predicting recurrence following surgery for pancreatic cancer: Retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

or Purpose: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is a leading cause of mortality in the world with the overall 5-year survival rate of 6%. The survival of patients with PDAC is closely related to recurrence and therefore it is necessary to identify the risk factors for recurrence. This study uses artificial intelligence approaches and multi-center registry data to analyze the recurrence of pancreatic cancer after surgery and its major determinants.

METHODS

Data came from 4846 patients enrolled in a multi-center registry system, the Korea Tumor Registry System (KOTUS). The random forest and the Cox proportional-hazards model (the Cox model) were applied and compared for the prediction of disease-free survival. Variable importance, the contribution of a variable for the performance of the model, was used for identifying major predictors of disease-free survival after surgery. The C-Index was introduced as a criterion for validating the models trained.

RESULTS

Based on variable importance from the random forest, major predictors of disease-free survival after surgery were tumor size (0.00310), tumor grade (0.00211), TNM stage (0.00211), T stage (0.00146) and lymphovascular invasion (0.00125). The coefficients of these variables were statistically significant in the Cox model (p < 0.05). The C-Index averages of the random forest and the Cox model were 0.6805 and 0.7738, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first artificial-intelligence study with multi-center registry data to predict disease-free survival after the surgery of pancreatic cancer. The findings of this methodological study demonstrate that artificial intelligence can provide a valuable decision-support system for treating patients undergoing surgery for pancreatic cancer. However, at present, further studies are needed to demonstrate the actual benefit of applying machine learning algorithms in clinical practice.

Predictors of Newborn's Weight for Height: A Machine Learning Study Using Nationwide Multicenter Ultrasound Data

There has been no machine learning study with a rich collection of clinical, sonographic markers to compare the performance measures for a variety of newborns’ weight-for-height indicators. This study compared the performance measures for a variety of newborns’ weight-for-height indicators based on machine learning, ultrasonographic data and maternal/delivery information. The source of data for this study was a multi-center retrospective study with 2949 mother–newborn pairs. The mean-squared-error-over-variance measures of five machine learning approaches were compared for newborn’s weight, newborn’s weight/height, newborn’s weight/height² and newborn’s weight/hieght³. Random forest variable importance, the influence of a variable over average node impurity, was used to identify major predictors of these newborns’ weight-for-height indicators among ultrasonographic data and maternal/delivery information. Regarding ultrasonographic fetal biometry, newborn’s weight, newborn’s weight/height and newborn’s weight/height² were better indicators with smaller mean-squared-error-over-variance measures than newborn’s weight/height³. Based on random forest variable importance, the top six predictors of newborn’s weight were the same as those of newborn’s weight/height and those of newborn’s weight/height²: gestational age at delivery time, the first estimated fetal weight and abdominal circumference in week 36 or later, maternal weight and body mass index at delivery time, and the first biparietal diameter in week 36 or later. These six predictors also ranked within the top seven for large-for-gestational-age and the top eight for small-for-gestational-age. In conclusion, newborn’s weight, newborn’s weight/height and newborn’s weight/height² are more suitable for ultrasonographic fetal biometry with smaller mean-squared-error-over-variance measures than newborn’s weight/height³. Machine learning with ultrasonographic data would be an effective noninvasive approach for predicting newborn’s weight, weight/height and weight/height².

Automatic Classification of the Korean Triage Acuity Scale in Simulated Emergency Rooms Using Speech Recognition and Natural Language Processing: a Proof of Concept Study

BACKGROUND

Rapid triage reduces the patients' stay time at an emergency department (ED). The Korean Triage Acuity Scale (KTAS) is mandatorily applied at EDs in South Korea. For rapid triage, we studied machine learning-based triage systems composed of a speech recognition model and natural language processing-based classification.

METHODS

We simulated 762 triage cases that consisted of 18 classes with six types of the main symptom (chest pain, dyspnea, fever, stroke, abdominal pain, and headache) and three levels of KTAS. In addition, we recorded conversations between emergency patients and clinicians during the simulation. We used speech recognition models to transcribe the conversation. Bidirectional Encoder Representation from Transformers (BERT), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and k-nearest neighbors (KNN) were used for KTAS and symptom classification. Additionally, we evaluated the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values of features to interpret the classifiers.

RESULTS

The character error rate of the speech recognition model was reduced to 25.21% through transfer learning. With auto-transcribed scripts, support vector machine (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC], 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.81-0.9), KNN (AUROC, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.93), RF (AUROC, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.82-0.9) and BERT (AUROC, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.75-0.87) achieved excellent classification performance. Based on SHAP, we found "stress", "pain score point", "fever", "breath", "head" and "chest" were the important vocabularies for determining KTAS and symptoms.

CONCLUSION

We demonstrated the potential of an automatic KTAS classification system using speech recognition models, machine learning and BERT-based classifiers.

Machine Learning Approaches to Identify Factors Associated with Women's Vasomotor Symptoms Using General Hospital Data

BACKGROUND

To analyze the factors associated with women's vasomotor symptoms (VMS) using machine learning.

METHODS

Data on 3,298 women, aged 40-80 years, who attended their general health check-up from January 2010 to December 2012 were obtained from Korea University Anam Hospital in Seoul, Korea. Five machine learning methods were applied and compared for the prediction of VMS, measured by the Menopause Rating Scale. Variable importance, the effect of a variable on model performance, was used for identifying the major factors associated with VMS.

RESULTS

In terms of the mean squared error, the random forest (0.9326) was much better than linear regression (12.4856) and artificial neural networks with one, two, and three hidden layers (1.5576, 1.5184, and 1.5833, respectively). Based on the variable importance from the random forest, the most important factors associated with VMS were age, menopause age, thyroid-stimulating hormone, and monocyte, triglyceride, gamma glutamyl transferase, blood urea nitrogen, cancer antigen 19-9, C-reactive protein, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. Indeed, the following variables were ranked within the top 20 in terms of variable importance: cancer antigen 125, total cholesterol, insulin, free thyroxine, forced vital capacity, alanine aminotransferase, forced expired volume in 1 second, height, homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance, and carcinoembryonic antigen.

CONCLUSION

Machine learning provides an invaluable decision support system for the prediction of VMS. For managing VMS, comprehensive consideration is needed regarding thyroid function, lipid profile, liver function, inflammation markers, insulin resistance, monocyte count, cancer antigens, and lung function.

Machine Learning Methods for Preterm Birth Prediction: A Review

Preterm births affect around 15 million children a year worldwide. Current medical efforts focus on mitigating the effects of prematurity, not on preventing it. Diagnostic methods are based on parent traits and transvaginal ultrasound, during which the length of the cervix is examined. Approximately 30% of preterm births are not correctly predicted due to the complexity of this process and its subjective assessment. Based on recent research, there is hope that machine learning can be a helpful tool to support the diagnosis of preterm births. The objective of this study is to present various machine learning algorithms applied to preterm birth prediction. The wide spectrum of analysed data sets is the advantage of this survey. They range from electrohysterogram signals through electronic health records to transvaginal ultrasounds. Reviews of works on preterm birth already exist; however, this is the first review that includes works that are based on a transvaginal ultrasound examination. In this work, we present a critical appraisal of popular methods that have employed machine learning methods for preterm birth prediction. Moreover, we summarise the most common challenges incurred and discuss their possible application in the future.

Prediction of newborn's body mass index using nationwide multicenter ultrasound data: a machine-learning study

BACKGROUND

This study introduced machine learning approaches to predict newborn's body mass index (BMI) based on ultrasound measures and maternal/delivery information.

METHODS

Data came from 3159 obstetric patients and their newborns enrolled in a multi-center retrospective study. Variable importance, the effect of a variable on model performance, was used for identifying major predictors of newborn's BMI among ultrasound measures and maternal/delivery information. The ultrasound measures included biparietal diameter (BPD), abdominal circumference (AC) and estimated fetal weight (EFW) taken three times during the week 21 - week 35 of gestational age and once in the week 36 or later.

RESULTS

Based on variable importance from the random forest, major predictors of newborn's BMI were the first AC and EFW in the week 36 or later, gestational age at delivery, the first AC during the week 21 - the week 35, maternal BMI at delivery, maternal weight at delivery and the first BPD in the week 36 or later. For predicting newborn's BMI, linear regression (2.0744) and the random forest (2.1610) were better than artificial neural networks with one, two and three hidden layers (150.7100, 154.7198 and 152.5843, respectively) in the mean squared error.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first machine-learning study with 64 clinical and sonographic markers for the prediction of newborns' BMI. The week 36 or later is the most effective period for taking the ultrasound measures and AC and EFW are the best predictors of newborn's BMI alongside gestational age at delivery and maternal BMI at delivery.

Towards deep phenotyping pregnancy: a systematic review on artificial intelligence and machine learning methods to improve pregnancy outcomes

Objective

Development of novel informatics methods focused on improving pregnancy outcomes remains an active area of research. The purpose of this study is to systematically review the ways that artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), including deep learning (DL), methodologies can inform patient care during pregnancy and improve outcomes.

Materials and methods

We searched English articles on EMBASE, PubMed and SCOPUS. Search terms included ML, AI, pregnancy and informatics. We included research articles and book chapters, excluding conference papers, editorials and notes.

Results

We identified 127 distinct studies from our queries that were relevant to our topic and included in the review. We found that supervised learning methods were more popular (n = 69) than unsupervised methods (n = 9). Popular methods included support vector machines (n = 30), artificial neural networks (n = 22), regression analysis (n = 17) and random forests (n = 16). Methods such as DL are beginning to gain traction (n = 13). Common areas within the pregnancy domain where AI and ML methods were used the most include prenatal care (e.g. fetal anomalies, placental functioning) (n = 73); perinatal care, birth and delivery (n = 20); and preterm birth (n = 13). Efforts to translate AI into clinical care include clinical decision support systems (n = 24) and mobile health applications (n = 9).

Conclusions

Overall, we found that ML and AI methods are being employed to optimize pregnancy outcomes, including modern DL methods (n = 13). Future research should focus on less-studied pregnancy domain areas, including postnatal and postpartum care (n = 2). Also, more work on clinical adoption of AI methods and the ethical implications of such adoption is needed.

Comparison of Multivariable Logistic Regression and Other Machine Learning Algorithms for Prognostic Prediction Studies in Pregnancy Care: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Predictions in pregnancy care are complex because of interactions among multiple factors. Hence, pregnancy outcomes are not easily predicted by a single predictor using only one algorithm or modeling method.

Objective

This study aims to review and compare the predictive performances between logistic regression (LR) and other machine learning algorithms for developing or validating a multivariable prognostic prediction model for pregnancy care to inform clinicians’ decision making.

Methods

Research articles from MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar were reviewed following several guidelines for a prognostic prediction study, including a risk of bias (ROB) assessment. We report the results based on the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. Studies were primarily framed as PICOTS (population, index, comparator, outcomes, timing, and setting): Population: men or women in procreative management, pregnant women, and fetuses or newborns; Index: multivariable prognostic prediction models using non-LR algorithms for risk classification to inform clinicians’ decision making; Comparator: the models applying an LR; Outcomes: pregnancy-related outcomes of procreation or pregnancy outcomes for pregnant women and fetuses or newborns; Timing: pre-, inter-, and peripregnancy periods (predictors), at the pregnancy, delivery, and either puerperal or neonatal period (outcome), and either short- or long-term prognoses (time interval); and Setting: primary care or hospital. The results were synthesized by reporting study characteristics and ROBs and by random effects modeling of the difference of the logit area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of each non-LR model compared with the LR model for the same pregnancy outcomes. We also reported between-study heterogeneity by using τ² and I².

Results

Of the 2093 records, we included 142 studies for the systematic review and 62 studies for a meta-analysis. Most prediction models used LR (92/142, 64.8%) and artificial neural networks (20/142, 14.1%) among non-LR algorithms. Only 16.9% (24/142) of studies had a low ROB. A total of 2 non-LR algorithms from low ROB studies significantly outperformed LR. The first algorithm was a random forest for preterm delivery (logit AUROC 2.51, 95% CI 1.49-3.53; I²=86%; τ²=0.77) and pre-eclampsia (logit AUROC 1.2, 95% CI 0.72-1.67; I²=75%; τ²=0.09). The second algorithm was gradient boosting for cesarean section (logit AUROC 2.26, 95% CI 1.39-3.13; I²=75%; τ²=0.43) and gestational diabetes (logit AUROC 1.03, 95% CI 0.69-1.37; I²=83%; τ²=0.07).

Conclusions

Prediction models with the best performances across studies were not necessarily those that used LR but also used random forest and gradient boosting that also performed well. We recommend a reanalysis of existing LR models for several pregnancy outcomes by comparing them with those algorithms that apply standard guidelines.

Trial Registration

PROSPERO (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews) CRD42019136106; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=136106

[Visualization of unstructured personal narratives of perterm birth using text network analysis]

PURPOSE

This study aimed to identify the components of preterm birth (PTB) through women's personal narratives and to visualize clinical symptom expressions (CSEs).

METHODS

The participants were 11 women who gave birth before 37 weeks of gestational age. Personal narratives were collected by interactive unstructured storytelling via individual interviews, from August 8 to December 4, 2019 after receiving approval of the Institutional Review Board. The textual data were converted to PDF and analyzed using the MAXQDA program (VERBI Software).

RESULTS

The participants' mean age was 34.6 (±2.98) years, and five participants had a spontaneous vaginal birth. The following nine components of PTB were identified: obstetric condition, emotional condition, physical condition, medical condition, hospital environment, life-related stress, pregnancy-related stress, spousal support, and informational support. The top three codes were preterm labor, personal characteristics, and premature rupture of membrane, and the codes found for more than half of the participants were short cervix, fear of PTB, concern about fetal well-being, sleep difficulty, insufficient spousal and informational support, and physical difficulties. The top six CSEs were stress, hydramnios, false labor, concern about fetal wellbeing, true labor pain, and uterine contraction. "Stress" was ranked first in terms of frequency and "uterine contraction" had individual attributes.

CONCLUSION

The text network analysis of narratives from women who gave birth preterm yielded nine PTB components and six CSEs. These nine components should be included for developing a reliable and valid scale for PTB risk and stress. The CSEs can be applied for assessing preterm labor, as well as considered as strategies for students in women's health nursing practicum.

Application of Artificial Intelligence in Early Diagnosis of Spontaneous Preterm Labor and Birth

This study reviews the current status and future prospective of knowledge on the use of artificial intelligence for the prediction of spontaneous preterm labor and birth (“preterm birth” hereafter). The summary of review suggests that different machine learning approaches would be optimal for different types of data regarding the prediction of preterm birth: the artificial neural network, logistic regression and/or the random forest for numeric data; the support vector machine for electrohysterogram data; the recurrent neural network for text data; and the convolutional neural network for image data. The ranges of performance measures were 0.79–0.94 for accuracy, 0.22–0.97 for sensitivity, 0.86–1.00 for specificity, and 0.54–0.83 for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The following maternal variables were reported to be major determinants of preterm birth: delivery and pregestational body mass index, age, parity, predelivery systolic and diastolic blood pressure, twins, below high school graduation, infant sex, prior preterm birth, progesterone medication history, upper gastrointestinal tract symptom, gastroesophageal reflux disease, Helicobacter pylori, urban region, calcium channel blocker medication history, gestational diabetes mellitus, prior cone biopsy, cervical length, myomas and adenomyosis, insurance, marriage, religion, systemic lupus erythematosus, hydroxychloroquine sulfate, and increased cerebrospinal fluid and reduced cortical folding due to impaired brain growth.

Prevention of preterm birth: Proactive and reactive clinical practice-are we on the right track?

Preterm birth remains the major cause of death and disability among children under the age of five. In developing countries antenatal preterm birth prevention clinics are set up to provide cervical length surveillance and/or treatment modalities such as cerclage or progesterone for those women with identified risk factors such as previous cervical treatment or preterm birth. However, 85% of women have no risk factors for PTB and currently there is no biomarker to screen women early in pregnancy. Women will present unexpectedly in threatened preterm labour and we have no choice but to adopt a re-active approach to their care by using predication and preparation strategies such as fetal fibronectin, tocolytic therapy and steroids. Despite these strategies approximately 15-20% of these women will give birth preterm before 34 weeks. There is a urgent need to re-design primary, secondary and tertiary prevention strategies for spontaneous preterm labour (sPTL) in singleton pregnancies aimed at identifying and addressing key gaps in clinical practice and research.

Determinants of Spontaneous Preterm Labor and Birth Including Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease and Periodontitis

BACKGROUND

Periodontitis is reported to be associated with preterm birth (spontaneous preterm labor and birth). Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is common during pregnancy and is expected to be related to periodontitis. However, little research has been done on the association among preterm birth, GERD and periodontitis. This study uses popular machine learning methods for analyzing preterm birth, GERD and periodontitis.

METHODS

Data came from Anam Hospital in Seoul, Korea, with 731 obstetric patients during January 5, 1995 - August 28, 2018. Six machine learning methods were applied and compared for the prediction of preterm birth. Variable importance, the effect of a variable on model performance, was used for identifying major determinants of preterm birth.

RESULTS

In terms of accuracy, the random forest (0.8681) was similar with logistic regression (0.8736). Based on variable importance from the random forest, major determinants of preterm birth are delivery and pregestational body mass indexes (BMI) (0.1426 and 0.1215), age (0.1211), parity (0.0868), predelivery systolic and diastolic blood pressure (0.0809 and 0.0763), twin (0.0476), education (0.0332) as well as infant sex (0.0331), prior preterm birth (0.0290), progesterone medication history (0.0279), upper gastrointestinal tract symptom (0.0274), GERD (0.0242), Helicobacter pylori (0.0151), region (0.0139), calcium-channel-blocker medication history (0.0135) and gestational diabetes mellitus (0.0130). Periodontitis ranked 22nd (0.0084).

CONCLUSION

GERD is more important than periodontitis for predicting and preventing preterm birth. For preventing preterm birth, preventive measures for hypertension, GERD and diabetes mellitus would be needed alongside the promotion of effective BMI management and appropriate progesterone and calcium-channel-blocker medications.

Artificial Intelligence: A New Paradigm in Obstetrics and Gynecology Research and Clinical Practice

Artificial intelligence (AI) is growing exponentially in various fields, including medicine. This paper reviews the pertinent aspects of AI in obstetrics and gynecology (OB/GYN) and how these can be applied to improve patient outcomes and reduce the healthcare costs and workload for clinicians.

Herein, we will address current AI uses in OB/GYN, and the use of AI as a tool to interpret fetal heart rate (FHR) and cardiotocography (CTG) to aid in the detection of preterm labor, pregnancy complications, and review discrepancies in its interpretation between clinicians to reduce maternal and infant morbidity and mortality. AI systems can be used as tools to create algorithms identifying asymptomatic women with short cervical length who are at risk of preterm birth. Additionally, the benefits of using the vast data capacity of AI storage can assist in determining the risk factors for preterm labor using multiomics and extensive genomic data. In the field of gynecological surgery, the use of augmented reality helps surgeons detect vital structures, thus decreasing complications, reducing operative time, and helping surgeons in training to practice in a realistic setting. Using three-dimensional (3D) printers can provide materials that mimic real tissues and also helps trainees to practice on a realistic model. Furthermore, 3D imaging allows better depth perception than its two-dimensional (2D) counterpart, allowing the surgeon to create preoperative plans according to tissue depth and dimensions. Although AI has some limitations, this new technology can improve the prognosis and management of patients, reduce healthcare costs, and help OB/GYN practitioners to reduce their workload and increase their efficiency and accuracy by incorporating AI systems into their daily practice.

AI has the potential to guide practitioners in decision-making, reaching a diagnosis, and improving case management. It can reduce healthcare costs by decreasing medical errors and providing more dependable predictions. AI systems can accurately provide information on the large array of patients in clinical settings, although more robust data is required.

Using a Neural Network Analysis to Assess Stressors in the Farming Community

In the 1980s and 1990s, with decreasing numbers of full-time farmers and adverse economic conditions, chronic stress was common in farmers, and remains so today. A neural network was implemented to conduct an in-depth analysis of stress risk factors. Two Colorado farm samples (1992-1997) were combined (n = 1501) and divided into training and test samples. The outcome, stress, was measured using seven stress-related items from the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression Scale. The initial model contained 32 predictors. Mean squared error and model fit parameters were used to identify the best fitting model in the training data. Upon testing for reproducibility, the test data mirrored the training data results with 20 predictors. The results highlight the importance of health, debt, and pesticide-related illness in increasing the risk of stress. Farmers whose primary occupation was farming had lower stress levels than those who worked off the farm. Neural networks reflect how the brain processes signals from its environment and algorithms allow the neurons "to learn". This approach handled correlated data and gave greater insight into stress than previous approaches. It revealed how important providing health care access and reducing farm injuries are to reducing farm stress.