Vessel strike encounter risk model informs mortality risk for endangered North Atlantic right whales along the United States east coast

Vessel strikes are a critical threat to endangered North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis), significantly contributing to their elevated mortality. Accurate estimates of these mortality rates are essential for developing effective management strategies to aid in the species' recovery. This study enhances existing vessel strike models by incorporating detailed regional data on vessel traffic characteristics as well as whale distribution and behavior. Our model assesses the spatial and temporal variability in vessel strike risk along the U.S. east coast apportioned into three vessel length classes (26-65 feet, 65-350 feet, > 350 feet). By including regional right whale depth distributions and parameterizing potential whale avoidance based on factors such as descent rate, bottom depth, and vessel speed and size, the model provides a refined estimation of mortality risk. We also address the underrepresentation of smaller vessel activity via a correction factor, offering a more accurate annual mortality risk estimate for each vessel size class. These findings highlight that vessels > 350 feet in length pose the greatest risk to right whales. Simulations of reduced vessel speeds indicate that speed measures can mitigate mortality rates; however, residual risk remains even at speeds of 10 knots or less suggesting limitations to this mitigation approach.

Spatial variability in size and lipid content of the marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus across the Northwest Atlantic continental shelves: implications for North Atlantic right whale prey quality

Copepod size and energy content are influenced by regional and seasonal variation in temperature and food conditions, with implications for planktivorous consumers such as the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Historical data (1990-2020) on Calanus finmarchicus stage CV copepodite prosome length and oil sac metrics were analyzed to determine the extent of variation in individual body size and estimated lipid and energy content in five regions of the Northwest Atlantic continental shelves [Gulf of Maine (GoM), Scotian Shelf (SS), Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL), St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE) and Newfoundland Shelf]. Large-scale spatial patterns in size and lipid content were related to latitude, indicating that C. finmarchicus CV in the GSL and SLE were historically larger in body size, and had significantly higher lipid content compared with those in the GoM and the SS. The observed patterns of C. finmarchicus CV size and lipid storage capacity suggest that regional variation in whale prey energy content can play a role in the suitability of current and future whale foraging habitats in the Northwest Atlantic, with the larger lipid-rich individuals in the GSL providing a high-quality diet compared with those in southern areas.

Decadal-scale phenology and seasonal climate drivers of migratory baleen whales in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem

Species' response to rapid climate change can be measured through shifts in timing of recurring biological events, known as phenology. The Gulf of Maine is one of the most rapidly warming regions of the ocean, and thus an ideal system to study phenological and biological responses to climate change. A better understanding of climate-induced changes in phenology is needed to effectively and adaptively manage human-wildlife conflicts. Using data from a 20+ year marine mammal observation program, we tested the hypothesis that the phenology of large whale habitat use in Cape Cod Bay has changed and is related to regional-scale shifts in the thermal onset of spring. We used a multi-season occupancy model to measure phenological shifts and evaluate trends in the date of peak habitat use for North Atlantic right (Eubalaena glacialis), humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae), and fin (Balaenoptera physalus) whales. The date of peak habitat use shifted by +18.1 days (0.90 days/year) for right whales and +19.1 days (0.96 days/year) for humpback whales. We then evaluated interannual variability in peak habitat use relative to thermal spring transition dates (STD), and hypothesized that right whales, as planktivorous specialist feeders, would exhibit a stronger response to thermal phenology than fin and humpback whales, which are more generalist piscivorous feeders. There was a significant negative effect of western region STD on right whale habitat use, and a significant positive effect of eastern region STD on fin whale habitat use indicating differential responses to spatial seasonal conditions. Protections for threatened and endangered whales have been designed to align with expected phenology of habitat use. Our results show that whales are becoming mismatched with static seasonal management measures through shifts in their timing of habitat use, and they suggest that effective management strategies may need to alter protections as species adapt to climate change.

Repatriation of a historical North Atlantic right whale habitat during an era of rapid climate change

Climate change is affecting species distributions in space and time. In the Gulf of Maine, one of the fastest-warming marine regions on Earth, rapid warming has caused prey-related changes in the distribution of the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Concurrently, right whales have returned to historically important areas such as southern New England shelf waters, an area known to have been a whaling ground. We compared aerial survey data from two time periods (2013-2015; 2017-2019) to assess trends in right whale abundance in the region during winter and spring. Using distance sampling techniques, we chose a hazard rate key function to model right whale detections and used seasonal encounter rates to estimate abundance. The mean log of abundance increased by 1.40 annually between 2013 and 2019 (p = 0.004), and the mean number of individuals detected per year increased by 2.23 annually between 2013 and 2019 (R2 = 0.69, p = 0.001). These results demonstrate the current importance of this habitat and suggest that management options must continually evolve as right whales repatriate historical habitats and potentially expand to new habitats as they adapt to climate change.

In plane sight: a mark-recapture analysis of North Atlantic right whales in the Gulf of St. Lawrence

North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis are most commonly observed along the eastern seaboard of North America; however, their distribution and occupancy patterns have become less predictable in the last decade. This study explored the individual right whales captured photographically from both dedicated and opportunistic sources from 2015 to 2019 in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL), an area previously understudied for right whale presence. A total of 187 individuals, including reproductive females, were identified from all sources over this period. In years when more substantial survey effort occurred (2017-2019), similar numbers of individuals were sighted (mean = 133, SD = 1.5), and dedicated mark-recapture aerial surveys were highly effective at capturing almost all of the whales estimated in the region (2019: N = 137, 95% CI = 135-147). A high rate of inter-annual return was observed between all 5 study years, with 95% of the animals seen in 2019 sighted previously. Capture rates indicated potential residencies as long as 5 mo, and observed behaviors included feeding and socializing. Individuals were observed in the northern and southern GSL, regions divided by a major shipping corridor. Analyses suggest that individuals mostly moved less than 9.1 km d-1, although rates of up to 79.8 km d-1 were also calculated. The GSL is currently an important habitat for 40% of this Critically Endangered species, which underscores how crucial protection measures are in this area.