Development of Prediction Models for New Integrated Models and a Bioscore System to Identify Bacterial Infections in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Procalcitonin for the early discrimination of fever etiology in patients with systemic autoimmune diseases attending the emergency department

In febrile patients with known systemic autoimmune disease, early discrimination between infection and disease flare often represents a clinical challenge. This study aimed at evaluating the efficacy of procalcitonin (PCT) and other common inflammatory biomarkers in discriminating disease flare from bacterial infections in the Emergency Department (ED). In a cross-sectional observational retrospective study, we identified consecutive febrile patients with a known diagnosis of systemic autoimmune disease, admitted to the ED, and subsequently hospitalized. Flare vs infective disease was defined on clinical records at hospital discharge. Dosage of common inflammatory markers was performed at ED admission. Out of 177 patients, those with infection were most commonly elderly, frail, and with reduced peripheral oxygen saturation at admission. When compared to C-reactive protein (CRP) and white blood count (WBC), PCT showed the best performance in discriminating infections vs flare. However, only at a very high threshold value of 2 ng/ml, the PCT had a satisfactory negative predictive value of 88.9%, although with a very low specificity of 13.6% and a positive predictive value of 35.8%. Our data suggest that in the ED setting, the early PCT determination has low accuracy in the differentiation of disease flare from infection in patients with known rheumatologic disease. However, the PCT could be useful in elderly and comorbid subjects, in supporting clinical assessment and in recognizing those febrile patients needing prompt antibiotic treatment.

The utility of erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin in detecting infections in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: A systematic review

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a systematic review with metanalysis to investigate the utility of erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), and procalcitonin (PCT) in diagnosing infections in hospitalized patients with SLE.

METHODS

We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) with a search strategy developed by a medical librarian. We included retrospective, cross-sectional, case-control, and prospective studies in our analysis. We used the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Studies (QUADAS-2) to assess for bias and applicability. We obtained mean differences, sensitivities, and specificities in our analysis.

RESULTS

We included 26 studies in our analysis. Most studies had an unclear or high risk of bias and our results were widely heterogenous. For the diagnosis of infections, the CRP had a pooled sensitivity of 0.75 (95%CI 0.57-0.94) and specificity of 0.72 (0.59-0.85), PCT had a pooled sensitivity of 0.68 (95% CI 0.0.59-0.77) and specificity of 0.75 (0.59-0.90), and for ESR pooled estimates were not calculated but sensitivity ranged from 50 to 69.8 and specificity from 38.5 to 55.6. Modifying cut-offs improved sensitivities and specificities. The ESR, CRP, and PCT mean differences were all greater in infection groups versus non-infection (10.1, 95% CI 3.2-17.0; 46.8, 95% CI 36.5-57.0; 0.53, 95% CI 0.26-0.80; respectively).

DISCUSSION

Poor sensitivities and specificities were observed for the evaluated biomarkers with substantial heterogeneity in the cut-offs used to determine infection. Although mean biomarker values were increased in the infection group compared with the non-infection, our findings do not support the widespread use of ESR, CRP, or PCT in diagnosing infection in hospitalized patients with SLE due to increased heterogeneity and risk of bias. Further investigation is needed.

Serum procalcitonin and C-reactive protein levels as diagnostic markers for distinguishing bacterial infections from lupus flares in systemic lupus erythematosus: A systematic review and meta‑analysis

PURPOSE

To systematically evaluate the diagnostic performance of procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) for distinguishing bacterial infections from lupus flares in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) via meta-analysis.

METHODS

Electronic databases were comprehensively searched. The pooled standard mean difference (SMD) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to estimate the differences of serum PCT and CRP levels between bacterial infections and flares in SLE. Sensitivity, specificity and summary receiver operating characteristics (SROC) curve were used to assess the diagnostic values of PCT and CRP. The use of fixed or random effects model depended on heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies were included in the analysis. Serum PCT and CRP levels were significantly higher in SLE patients with bacterial infections compared to SLE patients with flares (PCT: SMD = 1.035, 95 %CI = 0.708 to 1.362; CRP: SMD = 1.000, 95 %CI = 0.758 to 1.242). The overall sensitivity, specificity, area under the SROC curve, positive likelihood ratios (PLR) and negative likelihood ratios (NLR) of PCT were 0.62, 0.88, 0.862, 6.63 and 0.36, respectively, while the same indicators for CRP were 0.72, 0.70, 0.784, 2.45 and 0.38, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Serum PCT and CRP levels were significantly increased in SLE with bacterial infections. PCT had a better diagnostic performance than CRP. PCT had a high value of PLR and could serve as a rule-in marker, while CRP testing may result in a high false-positive rate due to low PLR; both markers had a suboptimal value of NLR and are not appropriate for ruling out bacterial infections.