Gape-limited invasive predator frequently kills avian prey that are too large to swallow

Gape-limited predators (e.g., snakes, many fish) are not generally expected to pose a predation threat to prey that are too large for them to swallow. However, the extent to which snakes predate on prey that exceed their gape limitation remains largely unknown. We conducted the first study to investigate the influence of both prey and predator sizes on the frequency of ingestion success by snakes in a natural system. We combined survival monitoring of an avian prey species (Aplonis opaca) via radio-telemetry with a survey of the size distribution of their major predator (Boiga irregularis) on Guam. This allowed us to assess (1) the frequency of unsuccessful ingestion by the predator, (2) whether the size of the prey predicts ingestion success, (3) whether the size of the predator predicts ingestion success, and (4) the relationship between prey and predator sizes in successful ingestion attempts. We found that nearly half (47.95%) of ingestion attempts by snakes on fledgling birds were unsuccessful, and no instances where unsuccessful ingestion caused the mortality of the snake. Attempts to consume smaller fledglings were as likely to be unsuccessful as attempts to swallow larger fledglings. However, snakes that successfully ingested fledglings were among the largest snakes in the population, and larger than average conspecifics attracted to endothermic prey. The smallest snakes that successfully ingested fledglings attained remarkably high relative prey mass values for their species, consuming prey weighing up to 79.9% of their own mass. Our study indicates that B. irregularis routinely predate prey that are too large for them to successfully ingest, which causes mortality to the prey but poses little risk to the predator. The potential reward for snakes in consuming oversized prey may outweigh the inherent risks, while instances of predation that do not result in consumption may have considerable impacts on prey populations.

Predation thresholds for reintroduction of native avifauna following suppression of invasive Brown Treesnakes on Guam

The brown treesnake (BTS) (Boiga irregularis) invasion on Guåhan (in English, Guam) led to the extirpation of nearly all native forest birds. In recent years, methods have been developed to reduce BTS abundance on a landscape scale. To help assess the prospects for the successful reintroduction of native birds to Guåhan following BTS suppression, we modeled bird population persistence based on their life history characteristics and relative sensitivity to BTS predation. We constructed individual-based models and simulated BTS predation in hypothetical founding populations for each of seven candidate bird species. We represented BTS predation risk in two steps: risk of being encountered and risk of mortality if encountered. We link encounter risk from the bird's perspective to snake contact rates at camera traps with live animal lures, the most direct practical means of estimating BTS predation risk. Our simulations support the well-documented fact that Guåhan's birds cannot persist with an uncontrolled population of BTS but do indicate that bird persistence in Guåhan's forests is possible with suppression short of total eradication. We estimate threshold BTS contact rates would need to be below 0.0002-0.0006 snake contacts per bird per night for these birds to persist on the landscape, which translates to an annual encounter probability of 0.07-0.20. We simulated the effects of snake-proof nest boxes for Sihek (Todiramphus cinnamominus) and Såli (Aplonis opaca), but the benefits were small relative to the overall variation in contact rate thresholds among species. This variation among focal bird species in sustainable predation levels can be used to prioritize species for reintroduction in a BTS-suppressed landscape, but variation among these species is narrow relative to the required reduction from current BTS levels, which may be four orders of magnitude higher (>0.18). Our modeling indicates that the required predation thresholds may need to be lower than have yet been demonstrated with current BTS management. Our predation threshold metric provides an important management tool to help estimate target BTS suppression levels that can be used to determine when bird reintroduction campaigns might begin and serves as a model for other systems to match predator control with reintroduction efforts.