Development and Validation of a New Clinical Prediction Model of Catheter-Related Thrombosis Based on Vascular Ultrasound Diagnosis in Cancer Patients

External validation of the Khorana score for the prediction of venous thromboembolism in cancer patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Venous thromboembolism is the leading cause of death in cancer patients, second only to tumor progression. The Khorana score is recommended by clinical guidelines for identifying ambulatory cancer patients at high risk of venous thromboembolism during chemotherapy. However, its predictive performance is debated among cancer patients.

OBJECTIVES

To map the applicability of the Khorana score in cancer patients and to assess its predictive performance across various cancer types, providing guidance for clinicians and nurses to use it more appropriately.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search of the electronic database was first conducted on August 30, 2023, and updated on May 20, 2024. Studies examining the Khorana score's predictive performance (including but not limited to the areas under the curve, C-index, and calibration plot) in cancer patients were included. The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was applied to evaluate the methodological quality of the included studies. Data synthesis was achieved via random-effects meta-analysis using the R studio software. The subgroup analysis was performed according to the study design, clinical setting, cancer type, anti-cancer treatment stage, and country.

RESULTS

The review incorporated 67 studies, including 58 observational studies and nine randomized controlled trials. All included studies assessed the Khorana score's discrimination, with the C-index ranging from 0.40 to 0.84. The pooled C-index for randomized controlled trials was 0.61 (95 % CI 0.51-0.70), while observational studies showed a pooled C-index of 0.59 (95 % CI 0.57-0.60). Subgroup analyses revealed the pooled C-index for lung cancer, lymphoma, gastrointestinal cancer, and mixed cancer patients as 0.60 (95 % CI 0.53-0.67), 0.56 (95 % CI 0.51-0.61), 0.59 (95 % CI 0.39-0.76), and 0.60 (95 % CI 0.58-0.61), respectively. Inpatient and outpatient settings had the pooled C-index of 0.60 (95 % CI 0.58-0.63) and 0.58 (95 % CI 0.55-0.61), respectively. Calibration was assessed in only four studies. All included studies were identified to have a high risk of bias according to PROBAST.

CONCLUSION

The Khorana score has been widely validated in various types of cancer patients; however, it exhibited poor capability (pooled C-index<0.7) in accurately discriminating VTE risk among most types of cancer patients either in inpatient or outpatient settings. The Khorana score should be used with caution, and high-quality studies are needed to further validate its predictive performance.

REGISTRATION

The protocol for this study is registered with PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42023470320).

Construction and validation of a nomogram prediction model for the catheter-related thrombosis risk of central venous access devices in patients with cancer: a prospective machine learning study

Central venous access devices (CVADs) are integral to cancer treatment. However, catheter-related thrombosis (CRT) poses a considerable risk to patient safety. It interrupts treatment; delays therapy; prolongs hospitalisation; and increases the physical, psychological and financial burden of patients. Our study aims to construct and validate a predictive model for CRT risk in patients with cancer. It offers the possibility to identify independent risk factors for CRT and prevent CRT in patients with cancer. We prospectively followed patients with cancer and CVAD at Xiangya Hospital of Central South University from January 2021 to December 2022 until catheter removal. Patients with CRT who met the criteria were taken as the case group. Two patients with cancer but without CRT diagnosed in the same month that a patient with cancer and CRT was diagnosed were selected by using a random number table to form a control group. Data from patients with CVAD placement in Qinghai University Affiliated Hospital and Hainan Provincial People's Hospital (January 2023 to June 2023) were used for the external validation of the optimal model. The incidence rate of CRT in patients with cancer was 5.02% (539/10 736). Amongst different malignant tumour types, head and neck (9.66%), haematological (6.97%) and respiratory (6.58%) tumours had the highest risks. Amongst catheter types, haemodialysis (13.91%), central venous (8.39%) and peripherally inserted central (4.68%) catheters were associated with the highest risks. A total of 500 patients with CRT and 1000 without CRT participated in model construction and were randomly assigned to the training (n = 1050) or testing (n = 450) groups. We identified 11 independent risk factors, including age, catheterisation method, catheter valve, catheter material, infection, insertion history, D-dimer concentration, operation history, anaemia, diabetes and targeted drugs. The logistic regression model had the best discriminative ability amongst the three models. It had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.868 (0.846-0.890) for the training group. The external validation AUC was 0.708 (0.618-0.797). The calibration curve of the nomogram model was consistent with the ideal curve. Moreover, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good fit (P > 0.05) and high net benefit value for the clinical decision curve. The nomogram model constructed in this study can predict the risk of CRT in patients with cancer. It can help in the early identification and screening of patients at high risk of cancer CRT.

Development and validation of a nomogram for catheter-related thrombosis prediction in children with central venous catheter: a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Catheter-related thrombosis (CRT) is a thrombotic complication associated with using central venous catheters (CVCs). Although risk factors for CRT were identified in children, no nomograms or predictive tools are available for the pediatric population with CVCs. This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction model of asymptomatic CRT in children with CVCs.

METHODS

This retrospective observational study included consecutive pediatric patients who admitted to the Children's Hospital Zhejiang University School of Medicine and received CVCs between October and December 2021.

RESULTS

This study included 669 patients, 553 (314 males, aged 22.00 [0.36, 180.00] months, 62 with CRT) were in the training set, and 116 (62 males, aged 15.00 [1.13, 156.00] months, 16 with CRT) were in the validation set. Multivariate logistic regression showed that a catheter time of 0-3 days (OR = 0.201, 95%CI: 0.081-0.497, P = 0.001), catheter time of 4-7 days (OR = 0.412, 95%CI: 0.176-0.964, P = 0.041), male (OR = 3.976, 95%CI: 1.864-4.483, P < 0.001), congenital heart diseases (OR = 0.277, 95%CI: 0.078-0.987, P = 0.048), postoperative (OR = 0.161, 95%CI: 0.072-0.360, P < 0.001), and femoral CVC (OR = 2.451, 95%CI: 1.129-5.318, P = 0.002) were independently associated with CRT. The nomogram incorporating these variables showed relatively good discrimination (AUC = 0.77, 95%CI: [0.65, 0.90]) and calibration abilities in the validation set, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) yielded a clinical net benefit.

CONCLUSION

A prediction model for CRT in children with CVC was established based on catheter time, sex, diseases, postoperative, and catheter vein. The nomogram based on logistic regression model showed favorable predictive performance.

Analyzing venous thromboembolism risk in malignant tumors: thromboelastogram and coagulation factors study

Aim: This retrospective clinical study was designed to examine the predictive value of thromboelastography (TEG) combined with coagulation function for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hospitalized patients with cancer. Materials & methods: Among 215 patients admitted between May 2020 and January 2022, 39 (18.14%) were diagnosed with VTE during hospitalization. Results: Significant differences were found in D-dimer, ATIII and TEG parameters (maximum amplitude and coagulation index) between VTE-positive and VTE-negative patients (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis revealed tumor node metastasis stage, concomitant infection, smoking history and D-dimer as independently associated with VTE. The constructed model and D-dimer areas under the curve were 0.809 and 0.764, respectively. Conclusion: TEG parameters were not significantly predictive indicators for VTE, with D-dimer remaining a key predictor.

Generation of a Predictive Clinical Model for Isolated Distal Deep Vein Thrombosis (ICMVT) Detection

BACKGROUND Isolated distal deep vein thrombosis (ICMVT) increases the risk of pulmonary embolism. Although predictive models are available, their utility in predicting the risk is unknown. To develop a clinical prediction model for isolated distal calf muscle venous thrombosis, data from 462 patients were used to assess the independent risk variables for ICMVT. MATERIAL AND METHODS The area under curve (AUC) for Model A and Model B were calculated and other risk factors were based on age, pitting edema in the symptomatic leg, calf swelling with least 3 cm larger than the asymptomatic leg, recent bed rest for 3 days or more in the past 4 weeks, requiring general or major surgery with regional anesthesia, sex, and local tenderness distributed along the deep venous system as independent predictors of calf muscle venous thrombosis. Model A includes the risk variables for C-reactive protein and D-dimer. RESULTS The area under ROC curve for Model A training set was 0.924 (95% CI: 0.895-0.952), the area under ROC curve for Model B training set was 0.887 (95% CI: 0.852-0.922), and the AUC difference between the 2 models was statistically significant (P<0.001); the area under ROC curve for Model A obtained in the validation set was 0.902 (95% CI: 0.844-0.961), the area under ROC curve for Model B was 0.842 (95% CI: 0. 0.773-0.910), and the difference between the 2 models was statistically significant (P=0.012). CONCLUSIONS Predictive Model A better predicts isolated calf muscle venous thrombosis and is able to help clinicians rapidly and early diagnose ICMVT, displaying higher utility for missed diagnosis prevention and disease therapy.

A 5-year experience with midline catheters in the management of major head and neck surgery patients

BACKGROUND

In the perioperative management of major head and neck surgery (HNS) patients, the performance of midline catheters (MCs) has been never tested. We present here our 5-year experience by reporting MC-related complications and by identifying the preoperative risk factors associated with their development.

METHODS

Clinical variables were extracted and the dwell time, the number, and the type of postprocedural complications of MCs were retrieved. Complications were classified into major (needing MCs removal and including catheter-related bloodstream infection or deep vein thrombosis or catheter occlusion) and into minor (accidental dislodgement, leaking, etc.). Descriptive statistics and logistic regression models were used in order to identify the predictors of complications.

RESULTS

A total of 265 patients were included, with a mean age of 67.4 years. Intraprocedural complications occurred in 1.1% of cases, while postprocedural complications occurred in 13.9% of cases (12.05/1000 days), but they were minor in more than 7.0% (5.4/1000 catheter-days). There were 19 minor complications (7.1% or 5.4/1000 catheter-days) while 18 (7%, 5.1/1000 catheter-days) patients experienced at least one major complication. Female sex (OR = 1.963, 95% CI 1.017-3.792), insertion in the right arm (OR = 2.473, 95% CI 1.150-5.318), and an ACE-27 score >1 (OR = 2.573, 95% CI 1.295-5.110) were independent predictors of major complications.

CONCLUSIONS

MCs appear to represent an effective option in the setting of major HNS. The identification of patients most at risk for MC-related complications should prompt a postoperative watchful evaluation.

Development and validation of a prediction model of catheter-related thrombosis in patients with cancer undergoing chemotherapy based on ultrasonography results and clinical information

Central venous catheters can be used conveniently to deliver medications and improve comfort in patients with cancer. However, they can cause major complications. The current study aimed to develop and validate an individualized nomogram for early prediction of the risk of catheter-related thrombosis (CRT) in patients with cancer receiving chemotherapy. In total, 647 patients were included in the analysis. They were randomly assigned to the training (n = 431) and validation (n = 216) cohorts. A nomogram for predicting the risk of CRT in the training cohort was developed based on logistic regression analysis results. The accuracy and discriminatory ability of the model were determined using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values and calibration plots. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that body mass index, risk of cancer-related thrombosis, D-dimer level, and blood flow velocity were independent risk factors of CRT. The calibration plot showed an acceptable agreement between the predicted and actual probabilities of CRT. The AUROC values of the nomogram were 0.757 (95% confidence interval: 0.717-0.809) and 0.761 (95% confidence interval: 0.701-0.821) for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Our model presents a novel, user-friendly tool for predicting the risk of CRT in patients with cancer receiving chemotherapy. Moreover, it can contribute to clinical decision-making.

Conditional catheter-related thrombosis free probability and risk-adapted choices of catheter for lung cancer

Background

Current predictive tools assess catheter‐related thrombosis (CRT) in patients with lung cancer in a static manner at a single time point of catheterization. The subsequent hazard changes over time are unknown. The conditional catheter‐related thrombosis‐free probability (CCFP) can provide dynamic information on continual CRT‐free expectations. This study aimed to assess the CCFP and hazard rates based on risk categories and various venous access devices (VADs).

Methods

This retrospective study reviewed 939 patients with lung cancer with peripherally inserted central venous catheters (PICCs) or central venous catheters (CVCs) identified at the National Clinical Research Center for Cancer between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2018. The incidence of CRT has also been reported. Patients were stratified into low‐ and high‐risk groups according to multivariate Cox regression analyses. CCFP is defined as the CRT‐free probability given that patients have no CRT for a definite time.

Results

A total of 507 patients with PICCs and 432 patients with CVCs were included in this study. The 3‐month CCFP increased from 74.2% at catheter insertion to 93.6% at 3 months. The hazards of CRT in the first month were highest (16.4%) and slightly thereafter. The high‐risk group initially had a higher (21.4%) but significantly decreased CRT hazard after 2 months (8.3%), whereas the low‐risk group maintained a comparable lower risk hazard of less than 5% after 1 month. In the overall cohort, patients with CVCs had lower CRT probability than those with PICCs (HR, 1.76; 95% CI: 1.28–2.41; p < 0.01). Further analysis demonstrated that compared with PICCs, CVCs provided a CRT‐free benefit in low‐risk patients (p = 0.02) but not in high‐risk patients (p = 0.06).

Conclusions

CCFP increased, and the hazards of CRT decreased over time in a risk‐dependent manner in patients with lung cancer. These valuable dynamic data may help optimize risk‐adjusted choices of VADs and risk‐adjusted prophylactic anticoagulation strategies for patients.