Development and Validation of Nomogram Models for Postoperative Pneumonia in Adult Patients Undergoing Elective Cardiac Surgery

Off-pump vs. on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with chronic kidney disease: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

In patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), cardiovascular disease is found to be the primary cause of mortality, and after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), their prognosis deteriorates.

METHODS

We conducted a meta-analysis comparing off-pump CABG versus on-pump CABG in CKD patients. We searched electronic databases, including PubMed, Cochrane, and Google Scholar, using relevant keywords. We included studies comparing off-pump CABG with on-pump CABG in patients with chronic kidney disease, which was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Effect estimates were synthesized using a random-effects model and expressed as risk ratios (RR) for dichotomous outcomes and mean difference (MD) for continuous outcomes, with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Our primary outcome was short-term mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 25 studies, of which 23 were observational and 2 were RCTs, were included in this meta-analysis, comprising 234,585 patients (66,591 in the off-pump group and 167,994 in the on-pump group). Our meta-analysis showed that there was a significantly higher mortality rate in the on-pump CABG group as compared to the off-pump CABG group (RR: 0.73, 95% CI [0.61, 0.88]; P = 0.0006, I2 = 60%).

CONCLUSION

Compared with OPCAB, short-term mortality was significantly higher in ONCAB.

A Nomogram of Predicting Healthcare-Associated Infections in Burned Children

BACKGROUND

Healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) are a common clinical concern associated with adverse prognosis and mortality in burned children. This study aimed to construct a predictive nomogram of the risk of HAIs in burned children.

METHODS

Children admitted to the burn unit of Wuhan Third Hospital between 2020 and 2022 were included. The univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were adopted to ascertain predictors of HAIs. A nomogram was developed to predict the HAI risk of each patient, with receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration curves being generated to assess its predictive ability. Furthermore, decision and impact curves were used to assess the clinical utility.

RESULTS

Of 1122 burned children, 61 (5.5%) patients experienced HAIs. The multivariate analysis indicated that total burn surface area, length of stay, surgery, central venous catheter use and urinary catheter use were the independent risk factors of HAIs. Using these variables, we developed a predictive nomogram of the occurrence of HAIs in burned children, and the internal validation results demonstrated good discrimination and calibration of the nomogram. The area under the curve values of the nomogram was 0.926 (95% CI, 0.896-0.957). The calibration curve showed high consistency between the actual and predicted HAIs. The decision and impact curve indicated that the nomogram was of good clinical utility and more credible net clinical benefits in predicting HAIs.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study constructed a nomogram for predicting the risk of HAIs in burned children. This nomogram may strengthen the effective screening of patients at high risk of HAIs.

Diagnosis of Early Bacterial Pneumonia and Sepsis After Cardiovascular Surgery: A Diagnostic Prediction Model Based on LASSO Logistic Regression

Background

Early postoperative bacterial pneumonia and sepsis (ePOPS), which occurs within the first 48 hours after cardiovascular surgery, is a serious life-threatening complication. Diagnosis of ePOPS is extremely challenging, and the existing diagnostic tools are insufficient. The purpose of this study was to construct a novel diagnostic prediction model for ePOPS.

Methods

Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) with logistic regression was used to construct a model to diagnose ePOPS based on patients' comorbidities, medical history, and laboratory findings. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the model discrimination.

Results

A total of 1203 patients were recruited and randomly split into a training and validation set in a 7:3 ratio. By early morning on the 3rd postoperative day (POD3), 103 patients had experienced 133 episodes of bacterial pneumonia or sepsis (15 patients had both). LASSO logistic regression model showed that duration of mechanical ventilation (P=0.015), NYHA class ≥ III (P=0.001), diabetes (P<0.001), exudation on chest radiograph (P=0.011) and IL-6 on POD3 (P<0.001) were independent risk factors. Based on these factors, we created a nomogram named DICS-I with an AUC of 0.787 in the training set and 0.739 in the validation set.

Conclusion

The DICS-I model may be used to predict the risk of ePOPS after cardiovascular surgery, and is also especially suitable for predicting the risk of IRAO. The DICS-I model could help clinicians to adjust antibiotics on the POD3.

Influence and risk factors of postoperative infection after surgery for ischemic cardiomyopathy

Background

Studies on postoperative infection (POI) after surgery for ischemic cardiomyopathy are still lacking. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors of POI and its influence on clinical outcomes in patients undergoing ischemic cardiomyopathy surgery.

Methods

The Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure (STICH) trial randomized patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy [coronary artery disease (CAD) with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35%] to surgical and medical therapy. In this study, a post hoc analysis of the STICH trial was performed to assess the risk factors and clinical outcomes of POI in those undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG). Patients were divided according to whether POI developed during hospitalization or within 30 days from operation.

Results

Of the 2,136 patients randomized, 1,460 patients undergoing CABG per-protocol was included, with a POI rate of 10.2% (149/1,460). By multivariable analysis, POI was significantly related to patients' age, body mass index, depression, chronic renal insufficiency, Duke CAD Index, and mitral valve procedure. Compared to patients without POI, patients with POI had significantly longer durations of intubation, CCU/ICU and hospital stay, and higher rates of re-operation, in-hospital death and failed discharge within 30 days postoperatively. In addition, these patients had significantly higher risks of all-cause death, cardiovascular death, heart failure death, and all-cause hospitalization during long-term follow-up. However, the influence of POI on all-cause death was mainly found during the first year after operation, and the influence was not significant for patients surviving for more than 1 year.

Conclusions

POI was prevalent after surgery for ischemic cardiomyopathy and was closely related to short-term and long-term clinical outcomes, and the effect of POI mainly occurred within the first postoperative year. This study first reported and clarified the relationship between POI and long-term prognosis and the predictors for POI after surgery for ischemic cardiomyopathy worldwide, which may have certain guiding significance for clinical practice.

Clinical Trial Registration

https://www.clinicaltrials.gov, identifier (NCT00023595).

Development of a nomogram for predicting nosocomial infections among patients after cardiac valve replacement surgery

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

To construct a predictive nomogram of the risk of nosocomial infections among patients after cardiac valve replacement surgery.

BACKGROUND

Nosocomial infections are a standout challenge that worsens the prognosis of patients after valve replacement surgery. However, studies on the nomogram of nosocomial infections in these patients have remained scarce.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

Patients (n = 720) following valve replacement surgery from 2018 to 2019 were selected. LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression were utilised to ascertain predictors of nosocomial infections. The predictive performance of the nomogram was appraised by calibration and discrimination. Decision and impact curves were used to assess the clinical utility. Internal validation was implemented via 1000 bootstrap samples to mitigate overfitting. TRIPOD guidelines were used in this study.

RESULTS

One hundred and fifty one patients (20.97%) experienced nosocomial infections following valve replacement surgery. Heart failure, preoperative anaemia, valve material, American Society of Anesthesiologists score ≥ IV, prolonged duration of surgery, duration of mechanical ventilation ≥ 24 h and indwelling nasogastric tube were predictors of nosocomial infections. Using these variables, we developed a predictive nomogram of the occurrence of nosocomial infections and the internal validation results demonstrated good discrimination and calibration of the nomogram. The clinical decision and impact curve revealed significant clinical utility.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study constructed a nomogram for predicting the risk of nosocomial infections in patients following cardiac valve replacement surgery. This nomogram may strengthen the effective screening of patients at high risk of nosocomial infections.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

This risk warning tool can assist clinical staff in making decisions and providing individualised infection control measures for patients, which has a significant reference value for clinical practice.

NO PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

The data for this study were obtained from the hospital database, and the entire process of the study did not involve patient participation.

Nomogram and Risk Calculator for Postoperative Tracheostomy after Heart Valve Surgery

Postoperative tracheostomy (POT) is an important indicator of critical illness, associated with poorer prognoses and increased medical burdens. However, studies on POTs after heart valve surgery (HVS) have not been reported. The objectives of this study were first to identify the risk factors and develop a risk prediction model for POTs after HVS, and second to clarify the relationship between POTs and clinical outcomes. Consecutive adults undergoing HVS from January 2016 to December 2019 in a single cardiovascular center were enrolled, and a POT was performed in 1.8% of the included patients (68/3853). Compared to patients without POTs, the patients with POTs had higher rates of readmission to the ICU and in-hospital mortality, as well as longer ICU and hospital stays. Five factors were identified to be significantly associated with POTs after HVS by our multivariate analysis, including age, diabetes mellitus, pulmonary edema, intraoperative transfusion of red blood cells, and surgical types. A nomogram and a risk calculator were constructed based on the five factors, showing excellent discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. Three risk intervals were defined as low-, medium-, and high-risk groups according to the nomogram and clinical practice. The findings of this study may be helpful for early risk assessment and perioperative management.

Nomograms Based on the Albumin/Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Score for Predicting Coronary Artery Disease or Subclinical Coronary Artery Disease

Purpose

To develop and validate two nomograms incorporating the albumin/neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio score (ANS) for predicting the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) or subclinical CAD.

Patients and Methods

Four hundred fifty patients with suspected CAD who underwent coronary computed tomographic angiography were consecutively enrolled between September 2015 and June 2017. Nomograms were established based on independent predictors of CAD or subclinical CAD.

Results

In total, 437 patients with suspected CAD who underwent coronary computed tomographic angiography were included. Male sex, age ≥65 years, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, ischemic stroke, and ANS were independent predictors of CAD and subclinical CAD. The areas under the curve of each nomogram were 0.799 (95% CI: 0.752-0.846) and 0.809 (95% CI: 0.762-0.856), respectively. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis showed good performance for the diagnostic nomograms. The prediction of CAD or subclinical CAD by the ANS was not modified by the independent predictors (all, p for interaction >0.05).

Conclusion

Our ANS-based nomograms can provide accurate and individualized risk predictions for patients with suspected CAD or subclinical CAD.

Nomogram prediction model of postoperative pneumonia in patients with lung cancer: A retrospective cohort study

Background

The prediction model of postoperative pneumonia (POP) after lung cancer surgery is still scarce.

Methods

Retrospective analysis of patients with lung cancer who underwent surgery at The Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from September 2019 to March 2020 was performed. All patients were randomly divided into two groups, training cohort and validation cohort at the ratio of 7:3. The nomogram was formulated based on the results of multivariable logistic regression analysis and clinically important factors associated with POP. Concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the nomogram.

Results

A total of 1252 patients with lung cancer was enrolled, including 877 cases in the training cohort and 375 cases in the validation cohort. POP was found in 201 of 877 patients (22.9%) and 89 of 375 patients (23.7%) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The model consisted of six variables, including smoking, diabetes mellitus, history of preoperative chemotherapy, thoracotomy, ASA grade and surgery time. The C-index from AUC was 0.717 (95%CI:0.677-0.758) in the training cohort and 0.726 (95%CI:0.661-0.790) in the validation cohort. The calibration curves showed the model had good agreement. The result of DCA showed that the model had good clinical benefits.

Conclusion

This proposed nomogram could predict the risk of POP in patients with lung cancer surgery in advance, which can help clinician make reasonable preventive and treatment measures.

Prediction and prognosis of reintubation after surgery for Stanford type A aortic dissection

Background

Reintubation is a serious adverse respiratory event after Stanford type A aortic dissection surgery (AADS), however, published studies focused on reintubation after AADS are very limited worldwide. The objectives of the current study were to establish an early risk prediction model for reintubation after AADS and to clarify its relationship with short-term and long-term prognosis.

Methods

Patients undergoing AADS between 2016–2019 in a single institution were identified and divided into two groups based on whether reintubation was performed. Independent predictors were identified by univariable and multivariable analysis and a clinical prediction model was then established. Internal validation was performed using bootstrap method with 1,000 replications. The relationship between reintubation and clinical outcomes was determined by univariable and propensity score matching analysis.

Results

Reintubation were performed in 72 of the 492 included patients (14.6%). Three preoperative and one intraoperative predictors for reintubation were identified by multivariable analysis, including older age, smoking history, renal insufficiency and transfusion of intraoperative red blood cells. The model established using the above four predictors showed moderate discrimination (AUC = 0.753, 95% CI, [0.695–0.811]), good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ² value = 3.282, P = 0.915) and clinical utility. Risk stratification was performed and three risk intervals were identified. Reintubation was closely associated with poorer in-hospital outcomes, however, no statistically significant association between reintubation and long-term outcomes has been observed in patients who were discharged successfully after surgery.

Conclusions

The requirement of reintubation after AADS is prevalent, closely related to adverse in-hospital outcomes, but there is no statistically significant association between reintubation and long-term outcomes. Predictors were identified and a risk model predicting reintubation was established, which may have clinical utility in early individualized risk assessment and targeted intervention.

Nomogram and risk calculator for severe hypoxemia after heart valve surgery

Background

Hypoxemia is a very common issue in patients undergoing heart valve surgery (HVS), related to poor clinical outcomes. However, studies on severe hypoxemia (SH) after HVS have not been reported. The aims of this study were to identify predictors for SH in patients undergoing HVS and to develop and validate a risk prediction model.

Methods

Patients undergoing HVS between 2016 and 2019 in a cardiovascular center were enrolled and were assigned to training and validation sets by a 7:3 ratio. Based on whether patients developed SH, they were divided into two groups. By univariate and multivariate analysis, predictors for SH were identified. Based on the predictors and logistic rule, a nomogram and a risk calculator were generated. The model was evaluated using calibration, discrimination and clinical utility.

Results

The incidence rates of SH, moderate hypoxemia and mild hypoxemia were respectively 2.4, 23.9, and 58.2%. By multivariate analysis, seven independent risk factors for SH after HVS were identified, including body mass index, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, renal insufficiency, white blood cell count, serum globulin, cardiopulmonary bypass time, and surgical types. The logistic model demonstrated satisfactory discrimination, calibration and clinical utility in both the training and validation sets. A nomogram and a risk calculator based on the logistic model were generated for easy application. Risk stratification was performed and three risk intervals were defined according to the nomogram and clinical practice. In addition, compared to patients without SH, patients with SH had significantly poorer clinical outcomes.

Conclusions

Postoperative hypoxemia was prevalent after HVS, related to poor clinical outcomes. A logistic model including seven independent predictors for SH after HVS were established and validated, which demonstrated satisfactory discrimination, calibration and clinical utility. The results of this study may provide help to individualized risk assessment, early prevention and perioperative management.

Pneumonia After Cardiovascular Surgery: Incidence, Risk Factors and Interventions

Postoperative pneumonia (POP) is prevalent in patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery, associated with poor clinical outcomes, prolonged hospital stay and increased medical costs. This article aims to clarify the incidence, risk factors, and interventions for POP after cardiovascular surgery. A comprehensive literature search was performed to identify previous reports involving POP after cardiovascular surgery. Current situation, predictors and preventive measures on the development of POP were collected and summarized. Many studies showed that POP was prevalent in various cardiovascular surgical types, and predictors varied in different studies, including advanced age, smoking, chronic lung disease, chronic kidney disease, cardiac surgery history, cardiac function, anemia, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, surgical types, cardiopulmonary bypass time, blood transfusion, duration of mechanical ventilation, repeated endotracheal intubation, and some other risk factors. At the same time, several targeted interventions have been widely reported to be effective to reduce the risk of POP and improve prognosis, including preoperative respiratory physiotherapy, oral care and subglottic secretion drainage. Through the review of the current status, risk factors and intervention measures, this article may play an important role in clinical prevention and treatment of POP after cardiovascular surgery.

Incidence, Risk Factors, and Outcomes of Severe Hypoxemia After Cardiac Surgery

Background

Hypoxemia is common in patients undergoing cardiac surgery, however, few studies about severe hypoxemia (SH) after cardiac surgery exist. The objectives of this study were to clarify the incidence, risk factors, and outcomes of SH after cardiac surgery.

Methods

Patients undergoing cardiac surgery from 2016 to 2019 in a single center were enrolled and were divided into two groups based on whether postoperative SH developed. Independent risk factors for SH were identified by univariate and multivariate analysis. Model selection statistics were applied to help determine the most parsimonious final model.

Results

Severe hypoxemia developed in 222 of the 5,323 included patients (4.2%), was associated with poorer clinical outcomes. Six independent risk factors for SH after cardiac surgery were identified by multivariate analysis, such as surgical types, white blood cell (WBC) count, body mass index (BMI), serum albumin, cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time, and intraoperative transfusion of red blood cells (RBCs). After comprehensively considering the discrimination, calibration, and simplicity, the most appropriate and parsimonious model was finally established using four predictors, such as WBC count, BMI, CPB time, and intraoperative transfusion of RBCs. A nomogram and a web-based risk calculator based on the final model were constructed to facilitate clinical practice. Patients were stratified into three risk groups based on the nomogram and clinical practice.

Conclusion

Severe hypoxemia was common after cardiac surgery and was associated with poorer clinical outcomes. A parsimonious final model with good discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility was constructed, which may be helpful for personalized risk assessment and targeted intervention.

Prophylactic Penehyclidine Inhalation for Prevention of Postoperative Pulmonary Complications in High-risk Patients: A Double-blind Randomized Trial

BACKGROUND

Postoperative pulmonary complications are common. Aging and respiratory disease provoke airway hyperresponsiveness, high-risk surgery induces diaphragmatic dysfunction, and general anesthesia contributes to atelectasis and peripheral airway injury. This study therefore tested the hypothesis that inhalation of penehyclidine, a long-acting muscarinic antagonist, reduces the incidence of pulmonary complications in high-risk patients over the initial 30 postoperative days.

METHODS

This single-center double-blind trial enrolled 864 patients age over 50 yr who were scheduled for major upper-abdominal or noncardiac thoracic surgery lasting 2 h or more and who had an Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score of 45 or higher. The patients were randomly assigned to placebo or prophylactic penehyclidine inhalation from the night before surgery through postoperative day 2 at 12-h intervals. The primary outcome was the incidence of a composite of pulmonary complications within 30 postoperative days, including respiratory infection, respiratory failure, pleural effusion, atelectasis, pneumothorax, bronchospasm, and aspiration pneumonitis.

RESULTS

A total of 826 patients (mean age, 64 yr; 63% male) were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. A composite of pulmonary complications was less common in patients assigned to penehyclidine (18.9% [79 of 417]) than those receiving the placebo (26.4% [108 of 409]; relative risk, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.93; P = 0.010; number needed to treat, 13). Bronchospasm was less common in penehyclidine than placebo patients: 1.4% (6 of 417) versus 4.4% (18 of 409; relative risk, 0.327; 95% CI, 0.131 to 0.82; P = 0.011). None of the other individual pulmonary complications differed significantly. Peak airway pressures greater than 40 cm H2O were also less common in patients given penehyclidine: 1.9% (8 of 432) versus 4.9% (21 of 432; relative risk, 0.381; 95% CI, 0.171 to 0.85; P = 0.014). The incidence of other adverse events, including dry mouth and delirium, that were potentially related to penehyclidine inhalation did not differ between the groups.

CONCLUSIONS

In high-risk patients having major upper-abdominal or noncardiac thoracic surgery, prophylactic penehyclidine inhalation reduced the incidence of pulmonary complications without provoking complications.

EDITOR’S PERSPECTIVE