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Chen W, Tan X, Du X, Li Q, Yuan M, Ni H, Wang Y, Du J. Prediction models for major adverse cardiovascular events following ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and subgroup-specific performance. Front Cardiovasc Med 2023; 10:1181424. [PMID: 37180806 PMCID: PMC10167292 DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2023.1181424] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2023] [Accepted: 03/27/2023] [Indexed: 05/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Background ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients are at a high residual risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) after revascularization. Risk factors modify prognostic risk in distinct ways in different STEMI subpopulations. We developed a MACEs prediction model in patients with STEMI and examined its performance across subgroups. Methods Machine-learning models based on 63 clinical features were trained in patients with STEMI who underwent PCI. The best-performing model (the iPROMPT score) was further validated in an external cohort. Its predictive value and variable contribution were studied in the entire population and subgroups. Results Over 2.56 and 2.84 years, 5.0% and 8.33% of patients experienced MACEs in the derivation and external validation cohorts, respectively. The iPROMPT score predictors were ST-segment deviation, brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), age, hemoglobin, and white blood cell (WBC) count. The iPROMPT score improved the predictive value of the existing risk score, with an increase in the area under the curve to 0.837 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.784-0.889] in the derivation cohort and 0.730 (95% CI: 0.293-1.162) in the external validation cohort. Comparable performance was observed between subgroups. The ST-segment deviation was the most important predictor, followed by LDL-C in hypertensive patients, BNP in males, WBC count in females with diabetes mellitus, and eGFR in patients without diabetes mellitus. Hemoglobin was the top predictor in non-hypertensive patients. Conclusion The iPROMPT score predicts long-term MACEs following STEMI and provides insights into the pathophysiological mechanisms for subgroup differences.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weiyao Chen
- Department of Physiology and Pathophysiology, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
- Beijing Institute of Heart Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- The Key Laboratory of Remodeling-Related Cardiovascular Diseases, Ministry of Education, Beijing Collaborative Innovation Centre for Cardiovascular Disorders, Beijing, China
| | - Xin Tan
- Beijing Institute of Heart Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- The Key Laboratory of Remodeling-Related Cardiovascular Diseases, Ministry of Education, Beijing Collaborative Innovation Centre for Cardiovascular Disorders, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaoyu Du
- Beijing Institute of Heart Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- The Key Laboratory of Remodeling-Related Cardiovascular Diseases, Ministry of Education, Beijing Collaborative Innovation Centre for Cardiovascular Disorders, Beijing, China
- Center for Cardiovascular Medicine, The First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Qin Li
- Beijing Institute of Heart Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- The Key Laboratory of Remodeling-Related Cardiovascular Diseases, Ministry of Education, Beijing Collaborative Innovation Centre for Cardiovascular Disorders, Beijing, China
| | - Meng Yuan
- Beijing Institute of Heart Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- The Key Laboratory of Remodeling-Related Cardiovascular Diseases, Ministry of Education, Beijing Collaborative Innovation Centre for Cardiovascular Disorders, Beijing, China
| | - Hui Ni
- Beijing Institute of Heart Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- The Key Laboratory of Remodeling-Related Cardiovascular Diseases, Ministry of Education, Beijing Collaborative Innovation Centre for Cardiovascular Disorders, Beijing, China
| | - Yuan Wang
- Beijing Institute of Heart Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- The Key Laboratory of Remodeling-Related Cardiovascular Diseases, Ministry of Education, Beijing Collaborative Innovation Centre for Cardiovascular Disorders, Beijing, China
| | - Jie Du
- Department of Physiology and Pathophysiology, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
- Beijing Institute of Heart Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- The Key Laboratory of Remodeling-Related Cardiovascular Diseases, Ministry of Education, Beijing Collaborative Innovation Centre for Cardiovascular Disorders, Beijing, China
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Oh S, Kim JH, Cho KH, Kim MC, Sim DS, Hong YJ, Ahn Y, Jeong MH. Association between baseline smoking status and clinical outcomes following myocardial infarction. Front Cardiovasc Med 2022; 9:918033. [PMID: 35935630 PMCID: PMC9354586 DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2022.918033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2022] [Accepted: 06/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Whether the effect of smoking on clinical outcomes following an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is beneficial or detrimental remains inconclusive. We invesetigated the effect of smoking on the clinical outcomes in patients following an AMI. Methods Among 13,104 patients between November 2011 and June 2015 from a nationwide Korean AMI registry, a total of 10,193 participants were extracted then classified into two groups according to their smoking habit: (1) smoking group (n = 6,261) and (2) non-smoking group (n = 3,932). The participants who smoked were further subclassified according to their smoking intensity quantified by pack years (PYs): (1) <20 PYs (n = 1,695); (2) 20–40 PYs (n = 3,018); and (3) ≥40 PYs (n = 2,048). Each group was compared to each other according to treatment outcomes. The primary outcome was the incidence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs), which is a composite of all-cause mortality, non-fatal MI (NFMI), any revascularization, cerebrovascular accident, rehospitalization, and stent thrombosis. Secondary outcomes included the individual components of MACCEs. The Cox proportional hazard regression method was used to evaluate associations between baseline smoking and clinical outcomes following an AMI. Two propensity score weighting methods were performed to adjust for confounders, including propensity score matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting. Results While the incidence of all clinical outcomes, except for stent thrombosis, was lower in the smoking group than in the non-smoking group in the unadjusted data, the covariates-adjusted data showed statistical attenuation of these differences but a higher all-cause mortality in the smoking group. For smokers, the incidence of MACCEs, all-cause mortality, cardiac and non-cardiac death, and rehospitalization was significantly different between the groups, with the highest rates of MACCE, all-cause mortality, non-cardiac death, and rehospitalization in the group with the highest smoking intensity. These differences were statistically attenuated in the covariates-adjusted data, except for MACCEs, all-cause mortality, and non-cardiac death, which had the highest incidence in the group with ≥40 PYs. Conclusion Smoking had no beneficial effect on the clinical outcomes following an AMI. Moreover, for those who smoked, clinical outcomes tended to deteriorate as smoking intensity increased.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seok Oh
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju, South Korea
| | - Ju Han Kim
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju, South Korea
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Medical School, Hwasun, South Korea
- *Correspondence: Ju Han Kim,
| | - Kyung Hoon Cho
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju, South Korea
| | - Min Chul Kim
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju, South Korea
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Medical School, Hwasun, South Korea
| | - Doo Sun Sim
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju, South Korea
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Medical School, Hwasun, South Korea
| | - Young Joon Hong
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju, South Korea
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Medical School, Hwasun, South Korea
| | - Youngkeun Ahn
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju, South Korea
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Medical School, Hwasun, South Korea
| | - Myung Ho Jeong
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Hospital, Gwangju, South Korea
- Department of Cardiology, Chonnam National University Medical School, Hwasun, South Korea
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